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GWEB

Gardner-Webb 24 at App State 45

APP
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadGWEB aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreGWEB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:14 · Austin Hendley punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Pregame prior+39.3Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:06: Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 32 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +7.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:41: Jayden Brown run for 16 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK) — GWEB win probability +13.0 pts (now 33%) (top driver: GWEB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:24: Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 26 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +11.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:16: Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Jayden Brown for 41 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK) — GWEB win probability +18.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: GWEB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:35: Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 43 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +12.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 8 of 9GWEB made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 10:31APP 4th & 18 at GWEB 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    90.6%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:14GWEB 4th & 7 at GWEB 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:20APP 4th & 11 at APP 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:40GWEB 4th & 2 at APP 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:40APP 4th & 3 at GWEB 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    88.3%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    87.5%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:57APP 4th & 9 at APP 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:33GWEB 4th & 1 at APP 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.8%−0.6
    74% to make
    Punt
    13.9%−2.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:22GWEB 4th & 11 at APP 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−3.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:58APP 4th & 5 at APP 45, down 3
    Close callPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:13GWEB 4th & 6 at GWEB 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00GWEB 4th & 2 at APP 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    17.2%−0.6
    64% to make
    Punt
    14.4%−3.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:41APP 4th & 1 at GWEB 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.9%−2.6
    60% to make
    Punt
    65.0%−8.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:41GWEB 4th & 11 at GWEB 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:20APP 4th & 6 at GWEB 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    72.7%−7.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:19GWEB 4th & 7 at APP 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    5.5%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:21APP 4th & 13 at APP 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−1.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:50APP 4th & 1 at GWEB 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    97.6%−0.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 6GWEB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 1:08APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:03GWEB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:06APP Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:41GWEB Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:24APP Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:16GWEB Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:35APP Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:52APP Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:50APP Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APPDrive 1MISSED FG
12 plays · 26 yds · 4:2092% → 91%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
91.9%
Nate Noel run for 10 yds to the GWEB 42 for a 1ST down Appalachian State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jack Murphy) to the APP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
91.9%
Ryan Burger pass complete to Nate Noel for 7 yds to the GWEB 45Similar
Q1 14:51
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+3
91.9%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the GWEB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
91.9%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the GWEB 41Similar
Q1 14:51
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+1
91.9%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the GWEB 42Similar
Q1 14:51
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+24
91.9%
Ryan Burger pass complete to Christan Horn for 24 yds to the GWEB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
91.9%
Ryan Burger run for 12 yds to the GWEB 30Similar
Q1 14:51
2ND & 22
OPP 30
+3
91.9%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the GWEB 27Similar
Q1 14:51
3RD & 19
OPP 27
+1
91.9%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the GWEB 26Similar
Q1 14:51
1ST & 22
OPP 30
+3
91.9%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the GWEB 27Similar
Q1 10:31
4TH & 18
OPP 26
+44
90.7%
Michael Hughes 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:179% → 10%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
90.7%
Narii Gaither run for 2 yds to the GWEB 28Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+1
90.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Brennan McGuire for 1 yd to the GWEB 29Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
90.8%
Matthew Caldwell pass incomplete to Ephraim FloydSimilar
Q1 9:14
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
90.5%
Austin Hendley punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:5490% → 90%
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.4%
Ryan Burger pass complete to Dashaun Davis for no gain to the APP 25Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.4%
Maquel Haywood run for 4 yds to the APP 29Similar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
90.3%
Ryan Burger sacked by Ty French for a loss of 5 yards to the APP 24Similar
Q1 7:20
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+11
89.5%
Mitchell Lake punt for 42 yds , Maleek Huggins returns for 11 yds to the GWEB 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4011% → 11%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
89.4%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Karim Page for 8 yds to the APP 47Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 2
OPP 47
0
89.3%
Matthew Caldwell pass incomplete to Ephraim FloydSimilar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
89.4%
Matthew Caldwell pass incomplete to Brennan McGuireSimilar
Q1 6:40
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
89.4%
Austin Hendley punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5TD
18 plays · 77 yds · 5:3290% → 91%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
89.5%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the APP 29Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+1
89.6%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the APP 30Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+4
89.4%
Ryan Burger pass complete to Christan Horn for 4 yds to the APP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
89.6%
Ryan Burger pass incomplete to Christan HornSimilar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+15
89.6%
Ryan Burger pass incomplete for a 1ST down Gardner-Webb Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Ty French) to the APP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
89.8%
Nate Noel run for 8 yds to the GWEB 43Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 2
OPP 43
0
89.9%
Ryan Burger pass incomplete to Christan HornSimilar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+5
89.8%
Maquel Haywood run for 5 yds to the GWEB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
89.9%
Maquel Haywood run for 6 yds to the GWEB 32Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+10
90.0%
Ryan Burger run for 10 yds to the GWEB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
90.0%
Ryan Burger pass complete to Milan Tucker for 6 yds to the GWEB 16Similar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
90.0%
Ryan Burger pass complete to Milan Tucker for 6 yds to the GWEB 16Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 4
OPP 16
-3
89.1%
Ryan Burger sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the GWEB 19Similar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+4
88.9%
Maquel Haywood run for 4 yds to the GWEB 15Similar
Q1 1:40
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+3
88.5%
Maquel Haywood run for 3 yds to the GWEB 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
90.6%
Ryan Burger pass complete to Eli Wilson for 12 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0510% → 15%
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
90.2%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Ephraim Floyd for 8 yds to the GWEB 33Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
89.8%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Ephraim Floyd for 4 yds to the GWEB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
90.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Jonathan Burns for 18 yds to the APP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
89.4%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Karim Page for 8 yds to the APP 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 37
-5
89.4%
PENALTY GAR False Start (Burns,Jonathan) 5 yards from APP37 to APP42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+14
89.4%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Jonathan Burns for 14 yds to the APP 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
89.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Darius Hough for 5 yds to the APP 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+15
89.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Jonathan Burns for 15 yds to the APP 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+15
89.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Jonathan Burns for 15 yds to the APP 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
85.1%
Jayden Brown run for 8 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 2:0687% → 86%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
87.1%
Nate Noel run for 7 yds to the APP 32Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
87.5%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the APP 32Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-10
87.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Burger,Ryan pass complete short right to Jackson,Makai for 4 yards to the APP36 (Ousley,Raequan) PENALTY APP Holding (Ramsey,Jayden) 10 yards from APP32 to APP22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+4
86.7%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the APP 26Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+4
86.7%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the APP 26Similar
Q2 10:57
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
85.7%
Mitchell Lake punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Maleek Huggins at the GWEB 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 8FG
17 plays · 44 yds · 5:3515% → 20%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
85.2%
Matthew Caldwell pass incomplete to Maleek HugginsSimilar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
85.3%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Narii Gaither for 9 yds to the GWEB 46Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+1
84.6%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Narii Gaither for 1 yd to the GWEB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
84.6%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Brennan McGuire for 8 yds to the APP 45Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+4
84.3%
Narii Gaither run for 4 yds to the APP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
84.3%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Narii Gaither for 1 yd to the APP 42Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 11
OPP 42
0
83.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass incomplete to Narii GaitherSimilar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+12
84.2%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Brennan McGuire for 12 yds to the APP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
83.2%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Brennan McGuire for 3 yds to the APP 27Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
83.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass incomplete to Jayden BrownSimilar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+6
83.6%
Jayden Brown run for 6 yds to the APP 21Similar
Q2 8:33
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+3
84.2%
Brendan Jackson run for 3 yds to the APP 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
83.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass incomplete to Jonathan BurnsSimilar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+1
83.2%
Jayden Brown run for 1 yd to the APP 19Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 11
OPP 19
0
83.6%
Matthew Caldwell pass incomplete to Ephraim FloydSimilar
Q2 5:22
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+37
80.4%
Jay Billingsley 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2481% → 80%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.9%
Maquel Haywood run for 2 yds to the APP 23Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+17
80.8%
Ryan Burger pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 17 yds TEAM fumbled, recovered by APP for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
82.2%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the APP 42Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
82.1%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the APP 45Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
81.9%
Ryan Burger pass incomplete to Christan HornSimilar
Q2 2:58
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
79.5%
Mitchell Lake punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Maleek Huggins at the GWEB 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4520% → 20%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
80.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass incomplete to Brennan McGuireSimilar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+4
80.2%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Narii Gaither for 4 yds to the GWEB 18Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 6
OWN 18
0
80.4%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Caleb Borders for no gain to the GWEB 18Similar
Q2 2:13
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
79.6%
Austin Hendley punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GWEB 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11TD
1 play · 32 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
87.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 32 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 12END OF HALF
10 plays · 7 yds · 2:0014% → 13%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
86.5%
PENALTY GAR Delay Of Game 5 yards from GAR22 to GAR17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 15
OWN 17
0
86.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass incomplete to Karim PageSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+4
86.8%
Narii Gaither run for 4 yds to the GWEB 21Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 11
OWN 21
+12
87.1%
Matthew Caldwell run for 12 yds to the GWEB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
86.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Gaither,Narii rush left for 0 yards to the GAR33 (Collins,Shawn; Farrar,Derrell) PENALTY GAR Holding (Thompson,Gabe) 10 yards from GAR33 to GAR23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 20
OWN 23
+4
86.7%
Jayden Brown run for 4 yds to the GWEB 27Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 16
OWN 27
-2
86.8%
M. Caldwell takes a kneeSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 18
OWN 25
+4
86.6%
Jayden Brown run for 4 yds to the GWEB 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 13TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:1917% → 33%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
82.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Ephraim Floyd for 6 yds to the GWEB 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+14
81.4%
Narii Gaither run for 14 yds to the APP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
81.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass incomplete to Brennan McGuireSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
81.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Karim Page for 8 yds to the APP 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+3
81.0%
Narii Gaither run for 3 yds to the APP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
80.3%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Narii Gaither for 2 yds to the APP 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+8
81.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Brennan McGuire for 8 yds to the APP 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+2
80.9%
Jayden Brown run for 2 yds to the APP 26Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+5
81.8%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Narii Gaither for 5 yds to the APP 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
80.1%
Narii Gaither run for 5 yds to the APP 16Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+16
67.1%
Jayden Brown run for 16 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:1772% → 85%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
71.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 4 yds to the APP 39Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+13
74.1%
Nate Noel run for 13 yds to the GWEB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
74.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 11 yds to the GWEB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
74.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Eli WilsonSimilar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
74.8%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the GWEB 31Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+3
74.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 3 yds to the GWEB 28Similar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+2
73.3%
Joey Aguilar run for 2 yds to the GWEB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
84.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 26 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 15TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0819% → 40%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
81.2%
Matthew Caldwell run for 1 yd to the GWEB 26Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
81.2%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Karim Page for 4 yds to the GWEB 30Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+23
81.4%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Jayden Brown for 23 yds to the APP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
78.2%
Jayden Brown run for 6 yds to the APP 41Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+41
60.2%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Jayden Brown for 41 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:3668% → 84%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
67.8%
Nate Noel run for 8 yds to the APP 44Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+7
70.3%
Nate Noel run for 7 yds to the GWEB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
70.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 6 yds to the GWEB 43Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+43
83.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 43 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5421% → 19%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.4%
Narii Gaither run for 1 yd to the GWEB 24Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
79.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass incomplete to Maleek HugginsSimilar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
80.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass incomplete to Ephraim FloydSimilar
Q3 2:41
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
81.0%
Austin Hendley punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18FG
6 plays · 39 yds · 2:2181% → 89%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
81.3%
Gardner-Webb Penalty, Targeting (15 Yards) to the GWEB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
83.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 15 yds to the GWEB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
84.0%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the GWEB 27Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
84.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Eli WilsonSimilar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+1
83.0%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the GWEB 26Similar
Q3 0:20
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+43
88.5%
Michael Hughes 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 19INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20TD
2 plays · 23 yds · 0:0891% → 96%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
90.7%
Nate Noel run for 16 yds to the GWEB 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
95.9%
Nate Noel run for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 21INT
12 plays · 38 yds · 4:336% → 6%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
93.8%
Narii Gaither run for 14 yds to the GWEB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
93.1%
Narii Gaither run for 5 yds to the GWEB 44Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
93.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+6
93.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Narii Gaither for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
50
+4
92.9%
Narii Gaither run for 4 yds to the APP 46Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+2
92.9%
Matthew Caldwell run for 2 yds to the APP 44Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+4
93.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Jonathan Burns for 4 yds to the APP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
92.9%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Ephraim Floyd for no gain to the APP 40Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
92.9%
Jayden Brown run for no gain to the APP 40Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+3
93.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Jayden Brown for 3 yds to the APP 37Similar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
93.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:5896% → 96%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
96.1%
Milan Tucker run for 11 yds to the APP 26Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 21
OWN 26
+3
95.8%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the APP 29Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 18
OWN 29
+5
95.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miller Gibbs for 5 yds to the APP 34Similar
Q4 8:21
4TH & 13
OWN 34
+16
96.1%
Mitchell Lake punt for 39 yds , Maleek Huggins returns for 16 yds to the GWEB 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:566% → 6%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
93.7%
Matthew Caldwell run for 3 yds to the GWEB 46Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+8
93.6%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Donovan Jones for 8 yds to the APP 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
93.6%
Donovan Jones run for 7 yds to the APP 39 Donovan Jones fumbled, recovered by APP Montez KelleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24TD
9 plays · 61 yds · 5:3597% → 100%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
96.7%
Maquel Haywood run for 7 yds to the APP 46Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+9
96.8%
Maquel Haywood run for 9 yds to the GWEB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
96.8%
Maquel Haywood run for 4 yds to the GWEB 41Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+3
96.8%
Maquel Haywood run for 3 yds to the GWEB 38Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+22
96.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Michael Hetzel for 22 yds to the GWEB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
96.9%
Joey Aguilar run for 6 yds to the GWEB 22Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 16
OPP 22
+3
96.8%
Maquel Haywood run for 3 yds to the GWEB 19Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 13
OPP 19
+12
96.7%
Joey Aguilar run for 12 yds to the GWEB 7Similar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+7
99.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:501% → 1%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.5%
Nemo Squire run for 6 yds to the GWEB 31Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
99.5%
Gino English run for 1 yd to the GWEB 32Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-3
99.5%
G. English takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:16
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Jayden Brown for 41 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK)
-18
TD · Q3 10:41
Jayden Brown run for 16 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK)
-13
TD · Q3 3:35
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 43 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)
+12.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com