2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Rice Stadium
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Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadTXSO aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreTXSO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Ari Broussard run for 1 yd to the RICE 25 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 13:04: Daelen Alexander run for 1 yd for a TD (Tim Horn KICK) — TXSO win probability +0.1 pts (now 2%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q1 9:29: JT Daniels pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 70 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK) — RICE win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q1 5:55: JT Daniels pass complete to Jack Bradley for 1 yd for a TD (Tim Horn KICK) — RICE win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:17: Jace Wilson pass complete to Jyrin Johnson for 15 yds for a TD (Curtis Falkenburg KICK) — TXSO win probability +0.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: TXSO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:12: JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 36 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK) — RICE win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 3 of 5TXSO made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 11:57TXSO 4th & 11 at TXSO 12, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q1 9:41TXSO 4th & 10 at TXSO 25, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q1 8:03TXSO 4th & 13 at TXSO 22, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q1 2:04TXSO 4th & 4 at TXSO 46, down 28Close callPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 13:17RICE 4th & 1 at RICE 32, up 28Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snapGo for it99.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 7:09TXSO 4th & 9 at RICE 48, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q2 6:05RICE 4th & 10 at RICE 24, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.2%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.3%average punt
- Q2 0:03TXSO 4th & 7 at TXSO 26, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 11:02RICE 4th & 10 at TXSO 30, up 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.129% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%56% to makePunt99.6%−0.1average punt
- Q3 10:09TXSO 4th & 6 at TXSO 29, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 1:43TXSO 4th & 2 at RICE 2, down 45Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%48% to convertField goal0.1%−0.194% to makePunt-0.4%−0.6average punt
- Q4 15:00RICE 4th & 1 at RICE 24, up 45Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 6:20RICE 4th & 10 at TXSO 24, up 45Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%−0.128% to convertField goal99.9%68% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 3:58TXSO 4th & 18 at TXSO 8, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.111% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 0:55TXSO 4th & 12 at TXSO 23, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 8 of 8TXSO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 13:04RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 11:06RICE Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:29RICE Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:55RICE Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:37RICE Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:17TXSO Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.8%97% to makeGo for two0.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:12RICE Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:31RICE Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:13RICE Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTXSODrive 1FUMBLE2 plays · -9 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.5%
AJ Bennett run for 9 yds to the TXSO 16 AJ Bennett fumbled, recovered by TXSO Tre'Shon DevonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2TD4 plays · 16 yds · 1:4799% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 3PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:012% → 2%
Q1 11:57
4TH & 11
OWN 12
+18
98.2%
Patrick Hellen punt for 38 yds , Sean Fresch returns for 18 yds to the TXSO 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4TD3 plays · 32 yds · 0:5198% → 98%
TXSODrive 5PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:252% → 2%
Q1 11:06
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-5
98.3%
PENALTY TSU False Start (Achane,Tavaris) 5 yards from TSU30 to TSU25. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6TD1 play · 70 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
98.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 70 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 7PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:262% → 2%
RICEDrive 8TD5 plays · 59 yds · 2:0898% → 99%
TXSODrive 9PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 3:511% → 1%
Q1 5:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
98.8%
Jace Wilson pass complete to LaDarius Owens for 6 yds to the TXSO 33Similar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.8%
Jace Wilson pass complete to Quay Davis for no gain to the TXSO 40Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
98.8%
Jace Wilson pass complete to Jyrin Johnson for 3 yds to the TXSO 43Similar
Q1 2:04
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
99.0%
Patrick Hellen punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Sean Fresch at the RICE 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 3:4799% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 11FUMBLE2 plays · 14 yds · 0:421% → 1%
RICEDrive 12TD6 plays · 33 yds · 2:5899% → 99%
Q2 12:35
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+15
99.1%
Shotgun Daniels,JT pass complete short left to Connors,Dean for 0 yards to the TSU30 (McGraw,Jadrian) PENALTY TSU Personal Foul 15 yards from TSU30 to TSU15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 13PUNT8 plays · 27 yds · 2:281% → 1%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.4%
PENALTY Rice Offside (Coco,Coleman) 5 yards from TSU25 to TSU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
99.4%
Jace Wilson pass complete to Jyrin Johnson for 6 yds to the RICE 43Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 4
OPP 43
-5
99.3%
Texas Southern Penalty, False Start (Mehdi Torrence) to the RICE 48Similar
Q2 7:09
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
99.4%
Patrick Hellen punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Sean Fresch at the RICE 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0499% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 15TD5 plays · 76 yds · 1:480% → 1%
Q2 6:05
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+31
99.6%
Jace Wilson pass complete to Derek Morton for 31 yds to the RICE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+28
99.5%
LaDarius Owens run for 13 yds to the RICE 30 for a 1ST down Rice Penalty, Personal Foul (DJ Arkansas) to the RICE 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.3%
Jace Wilson pass complete to Jyrin Johnson for 15 yds for a TD (Curtis Falkenburg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16TD8 plays · 72 yds · 3:0599% → 100%
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
99.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 7 yds to the RICE 35Similar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+15
99.3%
Texas Southern Penalty, Personal Foul (KeShon Spraggins) to the TXSO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+36
99.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 36 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 17PUNT8 plays · 3 yds · 1:010% → 0%
Q2 1:04
2ND & 1
OWN 32
-5
99.6%
PENALTY TSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Torrence,Mehdi) 5 yards from TSU32 to TSU27. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 19FG9 plays · 47 yds · 3:50100% → 100%
Q3 14:52
3RD & 16
OPP 36
+6
99.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Rawson MacNeill for 6 yds to the TXSO 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 20PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:530% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 21TD8 plays · 73 yds · 3:38100% → 100%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
99.8%
PENALTY TSU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from Rice43 to Rice48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 5
OWN 48
+5
99.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 5 yds to the TXSO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+31
99.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 31 yds to the TXSO 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+14
99.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 14 yds to the TXSO 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 22DOWNS13 plays · 73 yds · 4:480% → 0%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
Jace Wilson pass complete to AJ Bennett for 10 yds to the TXSO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+15
99.9%
Rice Penalty, Personal Foul (Coleman Coco) to the RICE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
99.9%
Jace Wilson pass complete to Savion Sims for 8 yds to the RICE 34Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+5
99.9%
PENALTY Rice Offside (Boenisch,Blake) 5 yards from Rice34 to Rice29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+25
99.9%
Jace Wilson pass complete to Jyrin Johnson for 25 yds to the RICE 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 23DOWNS16 plays · 82 yds · 10:23100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+1
99.9%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 1 yd to the TXSO 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 24PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 2:220% → 0%
Q4 3:58
4TH & 18
OWN 8
+15
100.0%
Patrick Hellen punt for 34 yds for a 1ST down , Drayden Dickmann returns for 15 yds to the TXSO 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 25TD2 plays · 13 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
TXSODrive 26PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 2:180% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 5:55
JT Daniels pass complete to Jack Bradley for 1 yd for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q1 9:29
JT Daniels pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 70 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q2 4:17
Jace Wilson pass complete to Jyrin Johnson for 15 yds for a TD (Curtis Falkenburg KICK)
-0.2