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UNT

North Texas 21 at SMU 45

SMU
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2023 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:46 · Sawyer Evans punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jonathan McGill at the SMU 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Pregame prior+11.2Home team on offense+22.2Score differential+8.5Garbage-time factor+5.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.8Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:47: Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 19 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK) — UNT win probability +2.4 pts (now 15%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:07: Oscar Adaway III run for 7 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK) — UNT win probability +6.2 pts (now 19%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:08: Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +6.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:15: Jaylan Knighton run for 20 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +7.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:44: Camar Wheaton run for 22 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UNT made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:44UNT 4th & 3 at SMU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    11.0%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    11.0%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:53UNT 4th & 3 at UNT 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:15UNT 4th & 1 at SMU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    11.9%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    11.8%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:11UNT 4th & 5 at SMU 25, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.6%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    12.0%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:29SMU 4th & 3 at UNT 3, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.1%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    83.7%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:29UNT 4th & 4 at SMU 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    12.9%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−2.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:07SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    82.0%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:31SMU 4th & 4 at UNT 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    80.5%−0.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    80.6%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:09UNT 4th & 7 at SMU 42, down 3
    Close callPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    21.2%
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:51SMU 4th & 16 at SMU 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:32SMU 4th & 6 at UNT 39, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    87.1%−0.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    87.2%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:43SMU 4th & 4 at UNT 4, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    87.7%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    83.5%−4.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:44UNT 4th & 12 at UNT 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−1.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:46UNT 4th & 16 at UNT 37, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−1.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:38UNT 4th & 23 at UNT 34, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:39SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:47UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:34SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:07UNT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:08SMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:15SMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:44SMU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:00SMU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:27UNT Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1DOWNS
6 plays · 43 yds · 1:1610% → 11%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.6%
Chandler Rogers run for 3 yds to the UNT 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+33
89.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 33 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
89.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
89.6%
Ayo Adeyi run for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 32
0
89.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:44
4TH & 3
OPP 32
0
89.2%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:0589% → 89%
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+30
89.3%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jake Bailey for 30 yds to the UNT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
89.3%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 16 yds to the UNT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
89.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds to the UNT 13Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+3
89.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the UNT 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
89.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the UNT 8Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
89.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 8 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4611% → 11%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
89.1%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the UNT 38Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
89.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 3 yds to the UNT 41Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+1
89.1%
Chandler Rogers run for 1 yd to the UNT 42Similar
Q1 9:53
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
88.9%
Sawyer Evans punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:1689% → 89%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
89.0%
Jaylan Knighton run for 8 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+3
89.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
89.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
88.9%
Preston Stone pass interceptedSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
88.7%
North Texas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNT 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:5011% → 15%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+27
88.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 27 yds to the UNT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
88.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for 16 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
88.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 5 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 5
OPP 37
-4
88.4%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Alexander Kilgore for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+8
88.1%
Chandler Rogers run for 8 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q1 6:15
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+4
88.1%
Chandler Rogers run for 4 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
87.7%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
87.7%
Oscar Adaway III run for 4 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+6
87.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Blair Conwright for 6 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
85.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 19 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1386% → 88%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.3%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
86.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for 10 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
86.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for 6 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+3
86.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
86.7%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
50
+3
86.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the UNT 47Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+12
86.9%
Preston Stone pass complete to LJ Johnson Jr. for 12 yds to the UNT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
87.0%
Jaylan Knighton run for 8 yds to the UNT 27Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+3
87.0%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the UNT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
88.0%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 24 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7MISSED FG
5 plays · 59 yds · 0:4913% → 13%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+54
87.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 54 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
85.9%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
85.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
86.2%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+42
86.6%
Noah Rauschenberg 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8FG
13 plays · 72 yds · 3:4287% → 87%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.1%
Camar Wheaton run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
87.1%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+39
86.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 39 yds to the UNT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
87.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 7 yds to the UNT 27Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+4
87.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the UNT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
87.9%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+9
87.8%
Camar Wheaton run for 9 yds to the UNT 14Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+11
87.3%
Camar Wheaton run for 11 yds to the UNT 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
87.7%
Camar Wheaton run for no gain to the UNT 3Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
87.7%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
87.4%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
87.1%
Collin Rogers 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2212% → 19%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
87.8%
Oscar Adaway III run for 14 yds to the UNT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
87.4%
ROGERS, Chandler pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MACLIN, Ja'Mori thrown to the SMU18. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on MEGGINSON, Chris enforced 15 yards to the SMU46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
87.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Oscar Adaway III for 3 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+12
87.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for 12 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
86.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+3
86.6%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 10:29
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+5
87.8%
SMU Penalty, Offsides (Cameron Robertson) to the SMU 25Similar
Q2 10:29
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+18
87.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Blair Conwright for 18 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
3RD & 7
OPP 28
-2
87.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Kaylon Horton for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
80.8%
Oscar Adaway III run for 7 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10DOWNS
11 plays · 33 yds · 4:3683% → 82%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.1%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
83.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for 6 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
83.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 7:07
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
82.5%
Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
83.6%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+9
84.2%
Preston Stone pass complete to Romello Brinson for 9 yds to the UNT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
84.4%
Preston Stone run for 1 yd to the UNT 47Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
83.7%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+5
82.8%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 5 yds to the UNT 42Similar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
82.1%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:2220% → 21%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
79.7%
Landon Sides run for 6 yds to the UNT 48Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+2
79.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ayo Adeyi for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 2
50
+5
79.3%
Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
78.9%
Chandler Rogers run for 2 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
79.0%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+1
79.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 1 yd to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
79.2%
Sawyer Evans punt for 26 yds, downed at the SMU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
80.5%
[NH] Kneel down by SMU at SMU15 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:0980% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
80.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
82.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the UNT 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-2
82.3%
Jaylan Knighton run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNT 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 48
-8
81.4%
Preston Stone sacked by Jordan Brown for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 16
OWN 44
0
78.9%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 40 yds , returns for no gain to the UNT 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14FUMBLE
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:4221% → 20%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
79.4%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
79.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the UNT 25Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 7
OWN 25
-8
79.9%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 8 yards to the UNT 17 Chandler Rogers fumbled, recovered by SMU JaQwondis Burns [NHSG] ROGERS, Chandler scrambles to the left for a loss of 8 yards, ROGERS, Chandler fumbled at UNT22 , recovered by SMU BURNS, Jaqwondis at the UNT17, returned 0 yards to the UNT17, End of Play, clock 11:59.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15TD
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:5182% → 89%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
82.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 8 yds to the UNT 9Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+4
82.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the UNT 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
89.1%
Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16INT
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:3613% → 11%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
87.5%
Ayo Adeyi run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 22Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
87.7%
Chandler Rogers pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
89.0%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Branson Hickman) to the UNT 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:4989% → 88%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+3
88.7%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the UNT 45Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+6
88.7%
Preston Stone run for 6 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
88.5%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 6
OPP 39
+31
87.8%
Preston Stone pass complete to Romello Brinson for 31 yds to the UNT 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
89.1%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the UNT 4Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
89.1%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the UNT 3Similar
Q3 6:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
88.3%
Preston Stone sacked by Jordan Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 4Similar
Q3 6:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
87.7%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:5913% → 11%
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+9
87.5%
Ayo Adeyi run for 9 yds to the UNT 13Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 1
OWN 13
+5
87.4%
Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the UNT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
87.2%
ROGERS, Chandler pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MACLIN, Ja'Mori thrown to the SMU49. PENALTY UNT Holding on NWAIWU, Febechi enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the UNT18 to the UNT9 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 19
OWN 9
+4
87.5%
Ayo Adeyi run for 4 yds to the UNT 13Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 15
OWN 13
-5
87.6%
North Texas Penalty, False Start (Gabe Blair) to the UNT 8Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 20
OWN 8
0
87.7%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 20
OWN 8
+8
88.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Blair Conwright for 8 yds to the UNT 16Similar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 12
OWN 16
0
88.8%
Sawyer Evans punt for 44 yds, downed at the SMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 1:2989% → 96%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
88.7%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 8 yds to the UNT 47Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+4
88.9%
Tyler Lavine run for 4 yds to the UNT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+23
89.0%
Jaylan Knighton run for 23 yds to the UNT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
96.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for 20 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 3:295% → 4%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the UNT 28Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
94.7%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Cameron Robertson for a loss of 5 yards to the UNT 23Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+20
95.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 20 yds to the UNT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
94.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for 4 yds to the UNT 47Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-3
95.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Oscar Adaway III for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+3
95.2%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the UNT 47Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 47
-5
95.2%
North Texas Penalty, False Start (Gabe Blair) to the UNT 42Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 42
-5
95.7%
North Texas Penalty, False Start (Kaylon Horton) to the UNT 37Similar
Q4 13:46
4TH & 16
OWN 37
0
96.2%
Sawyer Evans punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jonathan McGill at the SMU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21TD
3 plays · 77 yds · 1:0297% → 99%
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+52
97.0%
Preston Stone pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 52 yds to the UNT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
97.3%
Camar Wheaton run for 3 yds to the UNT 22Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+22
99.3%
Camar Wheaton run for 22 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:061% → 1%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
98.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 12 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
98.7%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-6
98.7%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Isaiah Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the UNT 41Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 16
OWN 41
-7
98.8%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Elijah Roberts for a loss of 7 yards to the UNT 34Similar
Q4 10:38
4TH & 23
OWN 34
0
98.9%
Sawyer Evans punt for 36 yds, downed at the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 6:3899% → 100%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
99.3%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 16 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
99.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 21 yds to the UNT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
99.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 8 yds to the UNT 25Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+5
99.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the UNT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
99.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 8 yds to the UNT 12Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+1
99.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the UNT 11Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+3
99.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the UNT 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
99.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the UNT 7Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
99.4%
Camar Wheaton run for 4 yds to the UNT 3Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:280% → 1%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
99.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the UNT 37Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+5
99.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the UNT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
99.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the UNT 45Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+21
99.9%
Oscar Adaway III run for 21 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
99.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 5 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+29
99.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Blair Conwright for 29 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
Q4 1:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
99.7%
Zane Minors run for 14 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.8%
[NHSG] Kneel down by SMU at SMU39 (team loss of 4).Similar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.7%
Zane Minors run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 14
OWN 39
0
99.8%
[NHSG] Kneel down by SMU at SMU37 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:15
Jaylan Knighton run for 20 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
+7.2
TD · Q3 11:08
Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
+6.7
TD · Q2 7:07
Oscar Adaway III run for 7 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)
-6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com