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ACU

Abilene Christian 31 at North Texas 45

UNT
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadACU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreACU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.1UNT 84.4%Noah Rauschenberg 38 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 17 · Q1 5:31
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:31 · Noah Rauschenberg 38 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Pregame prior+30.1Home team on offense+2.7Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:40: Jed Castles 6 Yd pass from Maverick McIvor (Kyle Ramsey Kick) — ACU win probability +5.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:14: Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 18 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK) — UNT win probability +7.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:06: Maverick McIvor pass complete to Blayne Taylor for 23 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — ACU win probability +7.2 pts (now 12%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:01: Isaiah Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK) — UNT win probability +7.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:31: Maverick McIvor pass complete to Blayne Taylor for 14 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — ACU win probability +5.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ACU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 11:32ACU 4th & 7 at ACU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:56ACU 4th & 1 at ACU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:31UNT 4th & 8 at ACU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    83.1%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:57ACU 4th & 5 at ACU 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:42ACU 4th & 8 at ACU 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:21ACU 4th & 4 at ACU 44, down 24
    Close callPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:58UNT 4th & 9 at ACU 25, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:02UNT 4th & 9 at UNT 36, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00ACU 4th & 3 at UNT 37, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.6%−1.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00UNT 4th & 6 at ACU 48, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    89.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:01UNT 4th & 1 at ACU 5, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.2%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    92.3%−1.9
    92% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−6.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:40ACU 4th & 3 at ACU 43, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:07UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 19, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:42ACU 4th & 6 at ACU 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:02UNT 4th & 3 at UNT 48, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:16UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ACU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:16ACU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:21UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:56UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:12UNT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:36UNT Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:40ACU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:14UNT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:06ACU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:01UNT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:31ACU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ACUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:4415% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
84.6%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Tristan Golightly for 28 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
84.6%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Taelyn Williams for 12 yds to the UNT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
84.6%
Jermiah Dobbins run for 7 yds to the UNT 28Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+28
83.7%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Blayne Taylor for 28 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:4784% → 84%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
83.8%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
83.8%
Oscar Adaway III run for no gain to the UNT 20Similar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+80
83.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 80 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 3PUNT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:4916% → 16%
Q1 12:21
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
83.9%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 7
OWN 16
0
84.0%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 7
OWN 16
0
83.8%
Grant Nickel punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:3684% → 85%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
50
+30
83.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 30 yds to the ACU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
84.0%
Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the ACU 15Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 5
OPP 15
-10
84.0%
ROGERS, Chandler scrambles to the right for a gain of 11 yards to the ACU4 (MOFFETT, Elijah). PENALTY UNT Holding on NWAIWU, Febechi enforced 10 yards from the ACU15 to the ACU25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+19
83.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Smart for 19 yds to the ACU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
84.0%
Ayo Adeyi run for 4 yds to the ACU 2Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
84.0%
QB Keeper ROGERS, Chandler rush to the right for no gain to the ACU2 (YOUNG, Reese). PENALTY ACU Offsides on OLADELE, Kayode enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the ACU2 to the ACU1 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.5%
Chandler Rogers run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 5DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0016% → 16%
Q1 8:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
84.0%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 4 yds to the ACU 33Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
84.0%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 1 yd to the ACU 34Similar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.1%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 4 yds to the ACU 29Similar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
84.0%
Xavier Wishert run for no gain to the ACU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6FG
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:2585% → 84%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
84.6%
Isaiah Johnson run for 12 yds to the ACU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
84.6%
Isaiah Johnson run for 4 yds to the ACU 18Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 6
OPP 18
-2
84.6%
Isaiah Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ACU 20Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
84.5%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+38
84.4%
Noah Rauschenberg 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3416% → 15%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
84.5%
Quayde Hawkins sacked by Kevin Wood for a loss of 2 yards to the ACU 23Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+7
84.6%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 7 yds to the ACU 30Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
84.5%
Quayde Hawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:57
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
84.7%
Grant Nickel punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the UNT 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:4585% → 89%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
84.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 5 yds to the UNT 40Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
84.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 6 yds to the UNT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
84.9%
Oscar Adaway III run for 11 yds to the ACU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
85.0%
Chandler Rogers run for 3 yds to the ACU 40Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+8
84.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 8 yds to the ACU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
85.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Xzavior Kautai for 3 yds to the ACU 29Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
85.1%
Oscar Adaway III run for no gain to the ACU 29Similar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+12
84.8%
Chandler Rogers run for 12 yds to the ACU 17 Chandler Rogers fumbled, recovered by UNT for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
85.1%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
89.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 17 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:2312% → 11%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.4%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.5%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Taelyn Williams for 2 yds to the ACU 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
88.5%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:42
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
88.6%
Grant Nickel punt for 55 yds , returns for no gain to the UNT 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 3:0689% → 94%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
89.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 22Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 11
OWN 22
-10
89.1%
QB Keeper ROGERS, Chandler rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the UNT28 (YOUNG, Reese). PENALTY UNT Holding on CARROLL, Daizion enforced 10 yards from the UNT22 to the UNT12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 21
OWN 12
+20
89.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Blair Conwright for 20 yds to the UNT 32Similar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+5
89.1%
Isaiah Johnson run for 5 yds to the UNT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
89.3%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+11
89.4%
Chandler Rogers run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
50
+39
89.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 39 yds to the ACU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
93.5%
Isaiah Johnson run for 11 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:157% → 7%
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.6%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for no gain to the ACU 25Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
92.6%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Jed Castles for 13 yds to the ACU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
92.3%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
92.4%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 6 yds to the ACU 44Similar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
92.3%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
93.0%
Grant Nickel punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12MISSED FG
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:2394% → 94%
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+42
93.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 42 yds to the ACU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
94.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Kaylon Horton for 12 yds to the ACU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
94.1%
Chandler Rogers run for no gain to the ACU 26Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
94.1%
Kaylon Horton run for 1 yd to the ACU 25Similar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
94.0%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:58
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+43
94.3%
Noah Rauschenberg 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 13TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:187% → 12%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.5%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Taelyn Williams for 7 yds to the ACU 32Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
93.2%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 6 yds to the ACU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
93.3%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 3 yds to the ACU 41Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
93.2%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Jed Castles for 5 yds to the ACU 46Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+16
93.1%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 16 yds to the UNT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
93.0%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Blayne Taylor for 5 yds to the UNT 33Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+4
92.6%
Xavier Wishert run for 4 yds to the UNT 29Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+6
93.0%
Maverick McIvor run for 6 yds to the UNT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
92.6%
GOLIGHTLY, Tristan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CASTLES, Jed thrown to the UNT0. PENALTY UNT Pass Interference on NAKWAASAH, Nick enforced at the spot of the foul for 23 yards to the UNT0 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
93.3%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 2 yds to the UNT 6Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
87.9%
Jed Castles 6 Yd pass from Maverick McIvor (Kyle Ramsey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3892% → 92%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
92.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the UNT 36Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
92.1%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
91.9%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
91.6%
Sawyer Evans punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 15FG
8 plays · 25 yds · 1:0210% → 12%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
89.9%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Blayne Taylor for 7 yds to the ACU 45Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 3
OWN 45
-1
89.3%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the ACU 44Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+12
89.7%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Xavier Wishert for 12 yds to the UNT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
88.8%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
89.5%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+7
89.7%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Xavier Wishert for 7 yds to the UNT 37Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+54
87.7%
Kyle Ramsey 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 4:4690% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.5%
Chandler Rogers run for 2 yds to the UNT 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
89.5%
Isaiah Johnson run for 4 yds to the UNT 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
89.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 6 yds to the UNT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
89.7%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
89.6%
ROGERS, Chandler pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WARD, Damon thrown to the ACU21. PENALTY ACU Offsides on BUTLER, Jordan enforced 5 yards from the UNT37 to the UNT42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+6
90.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for 6 yds to the UNT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
90.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the ACU 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
90.0%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+1
89.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the ACU 48Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 48
+6
89.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 6 yds to the ACU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
90.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for 5 yds to the ACU 37Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
89.3%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+3
88.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Xzavior Kautai for 3 yds to the ACU 34Similar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 2
OPP 34
0
88.4%
ROGERS, Chandler pass deep to the left incomplete intended for LEE, Christian thrown to the ACU6. PENALTY ACU Offsides on OKE, David declined ACU Pass Interference on JOLLY, Patrick enforced at the spot of the foul for 28 yards to the ACU6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
89.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 1 yd to the ACU 18Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+18
96.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 18 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 17TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:084% → 12%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.8%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 6 yds to the ACU 31Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
95.4%
MCIVOR, Maverick pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Taelyn thrown to the UNT43. PENALTY UNT Pass Interference on WILSON, Logan enforced 15 yards to the ACU46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
95.5%
Blayne Taylor run for no gain to the ACU 46Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+8
95.9%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 8 yds to the UNT 46Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+4
95.6%
Maverick McIvor run for 4 yds to the UNT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
95.6%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+8
95.7%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 8 yds to the UNT 34Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+10
95.4%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 10 yds to the UNT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
95.1%
Xavier Wishert run for 1 yd to the UNT 23Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
95.1%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marcayll Jones for no gain to the UNT 23Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+23
87.9%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Blayne Taylor for 23 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0591% → 99%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
90.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 19 yds to the UNT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
91.3%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+13
91.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 13 yds to the ACU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
91.5%
Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the ACU 42Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+5
91.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 5 yds to the ACU 37Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+8
91.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Blair Conwright for 8 yds to the ACU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
91.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ayo Adeyi for 15 yds to the ACU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
91.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Smart for 6 yds to the ACU 8Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 4
OPP 8
0
91.5%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+3
91.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Xzavior Kautai for 3 yds to the ACU 5Similar
Q3 1:01
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+5
98.6%
Isaiah Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:212% → 2%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.0%
Hut Graham run for 11 yds to the ACU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
98.2%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 7 yds to the ACU 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
98.2%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
98.3%
Abilene Christian Penalty, Illegal Shift (TEAM) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:40
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
98.3%
Grant Nickel punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the UNT 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3399% → 99%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
98.7%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the UNT 19Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
98.7%
Chandler Rogers run for no gain to the UNT 19Similar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
98.7%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:07
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
98.9%
Sawyer Evans punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:252% → 1%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
98.5%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 4 yds to the ACU 37Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
98.5%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
98.6%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Jed Castles for no gain to the ACU 37Similar
Q4 11:42
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
98.7%
Grant Nickel punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the UNT 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 3:4099% → 99%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.1%
Ayo Adeyi run for 9 yds to the UNT 34Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
99.1%
Ayo Adeyi run for 7 yds to the UNT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
99.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 8 yds to the UNT 49Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 2
OWN 49
-2
99.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNT 47Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+1
99.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Oscar Adaway III for 1 yd to the UNT 48Similar
Q4 8:02
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
99.3%
Adam Jacklin punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:311% → 7%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
98.9%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 7 yds to the ACU 27Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
98.9%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+12
98.9%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Taelyn Williams for 12 yds to the ACU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
98.8%
Xavier Wishert run for 3 yds to the ACU 42Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+11
98.9%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 11 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+28
98.8%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marcayll Jones for 28 yds to the UNT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
98.6%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
98.7%
SUNDAY, Jay'Veon rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the UNT18 (WEST, Harold). PENALTY Before the snap, UNT Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the UNT19 to the UNT14. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+14
92.8%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Blayne Taylor for 14 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 3:0897% → 98%
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
97.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 6 yds to the UNT 38Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+7
97.4%
Ayo Adeyi run for 7 yds to the UNT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
97.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the UNT 46Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+1
97.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the UNT 47Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
98.2%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
98.1%
Sawyer Evans punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 25INT
10 plays · 32 yds · 0:554% → 2%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
95.9%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Blayne Taylor for 8 yds to the ACU 24Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+14
95.4%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 14 yds to the ACU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
95.3%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
95.4%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+13
97.5%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 13 yds to the UNT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
97.4%
Maverick McIvor sacked by Mazin Richards for a loss of 3 yards to the ACU 48Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 13
OWN 48
0
97.5%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 13
OWN 48
0
97.7%
Maverick McIvor pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
98.8%
[NH] Kneel down by ROGERS, Chandler at UNT41 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:01
Isaiah Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)
+7.5
TD · Q3 10:14
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 18 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)
+7.3
TD · Q3 5:06
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Blayne Taylor for 23 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
-7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com