Try the model
AF

Air Force 17 at Navy 6

NAVY
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:08 · Carson Bay punt for 27 yds, downed at the NAVY 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 131Home team on offense−31.7Pregame prior−1.9Score differential−11.8Garbage-time factor−12.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:48: Zac Larrier pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 94 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +4.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:18: Braxton Woodson run for 2 yds to the NAVY 18 — NAVY win probability +3.5 pts (now 27%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. PUNT · Q4 10:02: Riley Riethman punt for 68 yds for a touchback — AF win probability +6.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:51: Alec Mock 18 Yd Interception Return (Matthew Dapore Kick) — AF win probability +4.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:50: Kneel down by AFA at AFA48 (team loss of 2). — AF win probability +3.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 10 of 12AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00AF 4th & 1 at AF 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    75.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:38AF 4th & 6 at NAVY 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:13NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:09AF 4th & 19 at AF 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−0.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:10NAVY 4th & 16 at NAVY 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:17NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:13NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:35AF 4th & 6 at NAVY 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    72.8%−0.6
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:31NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 18, down 7
    Close callPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:38AF 4th & 8 at NAVY 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    73.3%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:08NAVY 4th & 12 at NAVY 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−2.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:18AF 4th & 3 at NAVY 38, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    75.0%−0.8
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:43NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−1.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:44AF 4th & 1 at AF 44, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%−2.0
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:22NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−1.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 10:22AF 4th & 1 at NAVY 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    72.8%−2.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    67.1%−8.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:55AF 4th & 8 at NAVY 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    67.9%−7.5
    average punt
  18. Q3 3:39NAVY 4th & 27 at NAVY 2, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−4.5
    5% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:55AF 4th & 5 at NAVY 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    71.9%−8.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:02NAVY 4th & 22 at NAVY 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−2.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:40AF 4th & 2 at AF 38, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%−1.2
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:40NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 4:08AF 4th & 3 at NAVY 38, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    88.3%−1.5
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%−1.7
    average punt
  24. Q4 1:47NAVY 4th & 3 at AF 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 0 of 1AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 14:48AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 3:51AF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 0:50NAVY Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1MISSED FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 5:2276% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
24.3%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
24.3%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 3 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
24.3%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
24.3%
Zac Larrier run for 3 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+34
24.3%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Jared Roznos for 34 yds to the NAVY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
24.3%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the NAVY 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 27
-3
24.3%
Zac Larrier run for a loss of 3 yards to the NAVY 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+5
24.3%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the NAVY 25Similar
Q1 9:38
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+42
26.8%
Matthew Dapore 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2527% → 27%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.0%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
26.9%
Braxton Woodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 24Similar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+2
26.7%
Braxton Woodson run for 2 yds to the NAVY 26Similar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
27.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · -9 yds · 3:0473% → 70%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
27.5%
Air Force Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the AFA 21Similar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 17
OWN 21
-5
27.6%
Air Force Penalty, False Start (Ethan Jackman) to the AFA 16Similar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 22
OWN 16
+4
27.6%
Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 18
OWN 20
-5
27.6%
Air Force Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 15Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 23
OWN 15
-2
27.6%
Zac Larrier run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 13Similar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 25
OWN 13
+6
27.8%
Owen Burk run for 6 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 19
OWN 19
0
29.7%
Carson Bay punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:5930% → 29%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
29.8%
Alex Tecza run for a loss of 5 yards to the NAVY 37Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 15
OWN 37
0
29.1%
Braxton Woodson run for no gain to the NAVY 37Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 15
OWN 37
-1
28.8%
Braxton Woodson sacked by PJ Ramsey for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 36Similar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 16
OWN 36
0
29.4%
Riley Riethman punt for 48 yds , returns for no gain to the AFA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · 26 yds · 0:4670% → 71%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
29.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+22
29.5%
Aiden Calvert run for 22 yds to the NAVY 42 Aiden Calvert fumbled, recovered by NAVY Dashaun PeeleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0732% → 32%
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
31.6%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 45Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+2
31.8%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the NAVY 47Similar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+1
31.4%
Braxton Woodson run for 1 yd to the NAVY 48Similar
Q1 0:17
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
32.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 46 yds, downed at the AFA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7TD
2 plays · 94 yds · 0:1269% → 73%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
31.4%
Emmanuel Michel run for no gain to the AFA 6Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+94
26.7%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 94 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 3:3527% → 27%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
26.6%
Brandon Chatman run for 6 yds to the NAVY 20Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 4
OWN 20
-3
27.6%
Braxton Woodson sacked by Caden Blum and Payton Zdroik for a loss of 3 yards to the NAVY 17Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+8
26.9%
Alex Tecza run for 8 yds to the NAVY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
27.4%
Braxton Woodson run for a loss of 4 yards to the NAVY 21 Braxton Woodson fumbled, recovered by NAVY Braxton WoodsonSimilar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+5
27.3%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Tyler Bradley for 5 yds to the NAVY 26Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
26.9%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
27.0%
Riley Riethman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:3873% → 73%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
27.0%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Caleb Rillos for 22 yds to the NAVY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
26.0%
Air Force Penalty, False Start (Brandon Engel) to the NAVY 48Similar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 15
OPP 48
0
26.4%
Zac Larrier run for no gain to the NAVY 48Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 15
OPP 48
+4
26.6%
Jensen Jones run for 4 yds to the NAVY 44Similar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+5
26.4%
Zac Larrier run for 5 yds to the NAVY 39Similar
Q2 8:35
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
27.0%
Carson Bay punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0428% → 27%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
27.8%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 12Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+5
27.7%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the NAVY 17Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+1
27.2%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 1 yd to the NAVY 18Similar
Q2 6:31
4TH & 3
OWN 18
0
26.5%
Riley Riethman punt for 24 yds, downed at the NAVY 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5375% → 74%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
25.1%
Zac Larrier run for 1 yd to the NAVY 41Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
25.1%
Zac Larrier sacked by Colin Ramos for 0 yards to the NAVY 41Similar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+1
25.3%
Zac Larrier run for 1 yd to the NAVY 40Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
26.3%
Carson Bay punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:3027% → 27%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
27.4%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 8Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 9
OWN 8
-2
26.2%
Amin Hassan run for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 6Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 11
OWN 6
-1
26.8%
Braxton Woodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 5Similar
Q2 3:08
4TH & 12
OWN 5
0
26.5%
Riley Riethman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the NAVY 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5077% → 76%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
23.2%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the NAVY 41Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+3
23.2%
Zac Larrier run for 3 yds to the NAVY 38Similar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
23.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for no gain to the NAVY 38Similar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
23.6%
Carson Bay punt for 22 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1827% → 26%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
27.1%
Braxton Woodson run for 2 yds to the NAVY 18Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 8
OWN 18
-5
27.1%
Navy Penalty, False Start (Jayden Umbarger) to the NAVY 13Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+1
27.0%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 14Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 14
0
25.7%
[NH] Kneel down by NAV at NAV13 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1727% → 26%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
26.8%
Braxton Woodson run for 3 yds to the NAVY 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+1
26.8%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 22
0
25.8%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:43
4TH & 6
OWN 22
0
25.6%
Riley Riethman punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5975% → 75%
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
24.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
23.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 13:43
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
24.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the AFA 44Similar
Q3 11:44
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
24.9%
Carson Bay punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2227% → 25%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
26.5%
Braxton Woodson run for 1 yd to the NAVY 10Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
26.6%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+3
25.6%
Braxton Woodson run for 3 yds to the NAVY 13Similar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 6
OWN 13
0
25.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18FG
10 plays · 35 yds · 4:2776% → 79%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
23.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 7 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+15
23.3%
LARRIER, Zac pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for ROZNOS, Jared thrown to the NAV0. PENALTY NAV Pass Interference on LANE, Rayuan enforced 15 yards to the NAV36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
23.2%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the NAVY 33Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+5
22.8%
Zac Larrier run for 5 yds to the NAVY 28Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
23.4%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the NAVY 27Similar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
24.5%
Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the NAVY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
22.8%
Zac Larrier run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 26 Zac Larrier fumbled, recovered by AFA Zac LarrierSimilar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
22.9%
Zac Larrier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+3
23.6%
Zac Larrier run for 3 yds to the NAVY 23Similar
Q3 5:55
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+40
21.2%
Matthew Dapore 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -17 yds · 2:1621% → 18%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-10
20.6%
Braxton Woodson sacked by Bo Richter for a loss of 10 yards to the NAVY 9Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 20
OWN 9
-6
20.1%
Braxton Woodson sacked by Jayden Thiergood and Payton Zdroik for a loss of 6 yards to the NAVY 3Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 26
OWN 3
-1
19.2%
Alex Tecza run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 2Similar
Q3 3:39
4TH & 27
OWN 2
0
18.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 32 yds, downed at the NAVY 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20MISSED FG
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:4483% → 81%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
17.4%
Emmanuel Michel run for 7 yds to the NAVY 27Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+2
17.2%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the NAVY 25Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
17.9%
Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the NAVY 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
17.2%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the NAVY 21Similar
Q3 0:18
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+2
16.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the NAVY 19Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+1
17.0%
Zac Larrier pass complete to John Lee Eldridge III for 1 yd to the NAVY 18Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+35
19.4%
Matthew Dapore 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 12 yds · 4:5320% → 13%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
19.9%
Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the NAVY 20Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
19.8%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Camari Williams for 9 yds to the NAVY 29Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
19.8%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the NAVY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
20.5%
Alex Tecza run for 7 yds to the NAVY 37Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+2
21.3%
Eli Heidenreich run for 2 yds to the NAVY 39Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+5
21.2%
QB Keeper LAVATAI, Tai rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the NAV40 (ZDROIK, Payton). PENALTY AFA Offsides on ZDROIK, Payton enforced 5 yards from the NAV39 to the NAV44 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
21.6%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 46Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+1
21.8%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 47Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 47
-15
20.9%
LAVATAI, Tai pass to the right complete for 14 yards to KENT, Nathan caught at the AFA39 and advanced to the AFA39 (YOUNGBLOOD, Johnathan). PENALTY NAV Personal Foul on TECZA, Alex enforced 15 yards from the NAV47 to the NAV32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 22
OWN 32
0
18.8%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 22
OWN 32
0
12.6%
Riley Riethman punt for 68 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 3:2287% → 89%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
13.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+4
12.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
12.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+5
12.7%
Zac Larrier run for 5 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
12.3%
John Lee Eldridge III run for no gain to the AFA 38Similar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
11.2%
Carson Bay punt for 38 yds, downed at the NAVY 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:1212% → 12%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
12.2%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 4 yds to the NAVY 28Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-3
12.6%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the NAVY 31 fumbled, recovered by NAVY Tai LavataiSimilar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
12.3%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+6
11.9%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Alex Tecza for 6 yds to the NAVY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
11.7%
Tai Lavatai pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:2091% → 92%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
8.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the NAVY 43Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+2
7.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the NAVY 41Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+3
7.2%
Jensen Jones run for 3 yds to the NAVY 38Similar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
7.6%
Carson Bay punt for 27 yds, downed at the NAVY 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 25INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:177% → 2%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
6.9%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
6.8%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 10
OWN 11
-18
2.1%
Alec Mock 18 Yd Interception Return (Matthew Dapore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 26TD
17 plays · 78 yds · 3:012% → 6%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
2.2%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Alex Tecza for 6 yds to the NAVY 28Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+5
2.3%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Alex Tecza for 5 yds to the NAVY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
2.3%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
2.2%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Tyler Bradley for 9 yds to the NAVY 42Similar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+1
2.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the NAVY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
2.3%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Tyler Bradley for 6 yds to the NAVY 49Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+10
2.4%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Alex Tecza for 10 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
2.0%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
2.0%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+7
1.9%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 7 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+6
2.1%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 6 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
2.4%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 5 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+13
2.4%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Daba Fofana for 13 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
2.4%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
5.7%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:5098% → 98%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
50
0
1.7%
Kneel down by AFA at AFA48 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 48
0
1.8%
Kneel down by AFA at AFA47 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
PUNT · Q4 10:02
Riley Riethman punt for 68 yds for a touchback
-6.2
TD · Q2 14:48
Zac Larrier pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 94 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
-4.7
TD · Q4 3:51
Alec Mock 18 Yd Interception Return (Matthew Dapore Kick)
-4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com