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UNT

North Texas 24 at Navy 27

NAVY
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:32 · Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 12Pregame prior+14.0Home team on offense−0.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:42: Chandler Rogers run for 75 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK) — UNT win probability +11.8 pts (now 44%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:26: Anton Hall Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +12.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:01: Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 18 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK) — UNT win probability +18.5 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 7:07: Alex Tecza run for 21 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +27.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:23: Ayo Adeyi run for 47 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK) — UNT win probability +24.7 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UNT made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00UNT 4th & 1 at NAVY 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    32.1%−0.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    31.6%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:32UNT 4th & 2 at NAVY 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    33.0%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    32.3%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:54NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:43UNT 4th & 13 at NAVY 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    32.3%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:16NAVY 4th & 14 at NAVY 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−1.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:33UNT 4th & 4 at UNT 30, up 3
    Close callPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:33NAVY 4th & 1 at UNT 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    61.8%−2.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:19NAVY 4th & 8 at UNT 38, up 4
    Close callPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    68.3%−0.3
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:01UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.7%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:06UNT 4th & 12 at NAVY 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:58NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00UNT 4th & 4 at UNT 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.8%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:51NAVY 4th & 20 at NAVY 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−8.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:07UNT 4th & 10 at UNT 27, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:58NAVY 4th & 9 at UNT 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:04UNT 4th & 10 at UNT 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.4%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.7%−2.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 7:18NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:42UNT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:43NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:26NAVY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:01UNT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:07NAVY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:23UNT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.5%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1DOWNS
13 plays · 72 yds · 5:2835% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
65.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Christian Lee for 34 yds to the NAVY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
65.5%
Chandler Rogers run for 4 yds to the NAVY 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+2
65.5%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the NAVY 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+18
65.5%
Ayo Adeyi run for 18 yds to the NAVY 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
65.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 7 yds to the NAVY 10Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 10
0
65.5%
Ayo Adeyi run for no gain to the NAVY 10Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+2
65.5%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the NAVY 8Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+1
65.5%
Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the NAVY 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
64.5%
Chandler Rogers run for 6 yds to the NAVY 1Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
64.5%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 2Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
64.6%
Isaiah Johnson run for no gain to the NAVY 2Similar
Q1 9:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
64.7%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 3Similar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
65.0%
Navy Penalty, False Start (Trey Cummings) to the NAVY 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:3865% → 65%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 11
OWN 2
+1
65.0%
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the NAVY 3Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+29
65.0%
Blake Horvath run for 29 yds to the NAVY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
65.1%
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 36Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+4
65.3%
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 40Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 2
OWN 40
0
65.4%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
64.6%
Riley Riethman punt for 53 yds, downed at the UNT 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3FG
9 plays · 68 yds · 4:1135% → 37%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+10
64.6%
Isaiah Johnson run for 10 yds to the UNT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
64.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 11 yds to the UNT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
64.4%
Chandler Rogers run for 3 yds to the UNT 31Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+28
64.3%
Isaiah Johnson run for 28 yds to the NAVY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
63.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 19 yds to the NAVY 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
63.4%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+1
63.5%
Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the NAVY 21Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 9
OPP 21
-4
63.8%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Rayuan Lane III and Landon Robinson for a loss of 4 yards to the NAVY 25Similar
Q1 2:43
4TH & 13
OPP 25
+42
63.4%
Noah Rauschenberg 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 3:2763% → 61%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.7%
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 29Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
62.8%
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 33Similar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
63.0%
Blake Horvath run for 6 yds to the NAVY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
63.2%
Navy Penalty, False Start (Brent Self) to the NAVY 34Similar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+4
62.6%
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 38Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+3
62.3%
Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the NAVY 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 41
-5
62.0%
Navy Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 36
-1
61.4%
Blake Horvath sacked by Fatafehi Vailea and Carson Kropp for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 35Similar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 14
OWN 35
0
60.7%
Riley Riethman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the UNT 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4339% → 38%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
61.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 6 yds to the UNT 30Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
60.6%
Chandler Rogers run for no gain to the UNT 30Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
61.2%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Clay Cromwell for 0 yards to the UNT 30Similar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
62.2%
Sawyer Evans punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 5:1562% → 70%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
61.8%
Daba Fofana run for 7 yds to the NAVY 27Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
62.2%
Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the NAVY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
62.1%
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 35Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+11
62.9%
Daba Fofana run for 11 yds to the NAVY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
63.4%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the NAVY 48Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+7
63.5%
Blake Horvath run for 7 yds to the UNT 45Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
63.7%
Blake Horvath run for no gain to the UNT 45Similar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+1
63.0%
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the UNT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
63.9%
Brandon Chatman run for 5 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+39
69.6%
Alex Tecza run for 39 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:5132% → 36%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
67.7%
Ayo Adeyi run for 19 yds to the UNT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
66.1%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the UNT 47Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+15
65.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 15 yds to the NAVY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
65.5%
Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the NAVY 33Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-8
64.5%
Chandler Rogers sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the NAVY 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:0869% → 69%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
69.0%
Daba Fofana run for 19 yds to the UNT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
69.8%
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the UNT 39Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+1
69.7%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the UNT 38Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
69.2%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:19
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
68.5%
Riley Riethman punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:3732% → 44%
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
68.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 5 yds to the UNT 25Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+75
56.3%
Chandler Rogers run for 75 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:5958% → 69%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
57.8%
Blake Horvath run for 13 yds to the NAVY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
59.1%
Alex Tecza run for 7 yds to the NAVY 45Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+2
60.5%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the NAVY 47Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+5
60.0%
Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the UNT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
59.0%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the UNT 46Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
59.0%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+20
57.9%
Tai Lavatai run for 20 yds to the UNT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
69.2%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Nathan Kent for 26 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:4234% → 32%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
65.8%
Ayo Adeyi run for 11 yds to the UNT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
64.8%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
67.5%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+2
67.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 2 yds to the UNT 41Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
68.2%
Sawyer Evans punt for 55 yds, downed at the NAVY 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
66.0%
[SG] Kneel down by NAV at NAV3 (team loss of 1).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:3466% → 82%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
65.8%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Xavier Arline for 6 yds to the NAVY 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
66.9%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
65.8%
Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd to the NAVY 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
64.5%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
66.6%
Brandon Chatman run for 8 yds to the NAVY 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+4
68.2%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the NAVY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
68.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 8 yds to the UNT 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+3
68.6%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 3 yds to the UNT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
68.6%
Brandon Chatman run for 2 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+38
68.5%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 38 yds to the UNT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
69.1%
Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the UNT 1Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.0%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14MISSED FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:2020% → 19%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
79.6%
Stone Earle run for 7 yds to the UNT 32Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
78.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 15 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
77.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 6 yds to the NAVY 47Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+14
77.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 14 yds to the NAVY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
76.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 7 yds to the NAVY 26Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 3
OPP 26
-9
76.0%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Clay Cromwell for a loss of 9 yards to the NAVY 35Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 12
OPP 35
0
78.7%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:06
4TH & 12
OPP 35
+52
81.5%
Noah Rauschenberg 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:0882% → 82%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
82.1%
Alex Tecza run for 11 yds to the NAVY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
83.3%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 6
50
-1
83.3%
Alex Tecza run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 49Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
82.3%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:58
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
82.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16TD
15 plays · 93 yds · 4:5718% → 38%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
82.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 6 yds to the UNT 13Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+1
82.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the UNT 14Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+8
83.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Smart for 8 yds to the UNT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
82.1%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Will Harbour for 0 yards to the UNT 22Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
82.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the UNT 23Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+10
83.2%
ROGERS, Chandler pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MACLIN, Ja'Mori thrown to the UNT49. PENALTY NAV Holding on DUHART, Andrew enforced 10 yards from the UNT23 to the UNT33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
84.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the UNT 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+5
84.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 5 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
83.5%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+7
85.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 7 yds to the UNT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
82.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 11 yds to the NAVY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
81.9%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+25
82.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Smart for 25 yds to the NAVY 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
80.4%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
62.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 18 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 5:1071% → 70%
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
71.3%
Eli Heidenreich run for 7 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
73.0%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 34Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
71.7%
Alex Tecza run for 7 yds to the NAVY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
73.6%
Alex Tecza run for 8 yds to the NAVY 49Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+6
74.4%
Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the UNT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
74.9%
Navy Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 15
50
+5
72.9%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Amin Hassan for 5 yds to the UNT 45Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-10
74.6%
HALL, Anton rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the UNT44 (BROWN, Jordan;WILSON, Logan). PENALTY NAV Holding on UMBARGER, Jayden enforced 10 yards from the UNT45 to the NAV45 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 20
OWN 45
0
71.8%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 20
OWN 45
0
70.2%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 20
OWN 45
0
70.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3832% → 35%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
68.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Smart for 19 yds to the UNT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-18
65.0%
Chandler Rogers sacked for a loss of 18 yards to the UNT 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19TD
1 play · 21 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
92.0%
Alex Tecza run for 21 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 1:4410% → 36%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-7
90.4%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Justin Reed for a loss of 7 yards to the UNT 20Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 17
OWN 20
0
90.9%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 17
OWN 20
+7
91.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 7 yds to the UNT 27Similar
Q4 7:07
4TH & 10
OWN 27
+11
91.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 11 yds to the UNT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
89.3%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+15
89.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 15 yds to the NAVY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
88.5%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+47
63.8%
Ayo Adeyi run for 47 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 3:3274% → 89%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.4%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the NAVY 30Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
75.1%
Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the NAVY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
75.6%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the NAVY 41Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+9
77.2%
Alex Tecza run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
50
+3
87.8%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the UNT 47Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+6
88.2%
Daba Fofana run for 6 yds to the UNT 41Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 1
OPP 41
-3
88.0%
Daba Fofana run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 44Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
87.8%
Riley Riethman punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 4
OPP 44
-5
88.7%
Navy Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the UNT 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5420% → 16%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
80.1%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Andrew Duhart for a loss of 7 yards to the UNT 13Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 17
OWN 13
0
80.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+7
81.8%
Ayo Adeyi run for 7 yds to the UNT 20Similar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
84.3%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 1:0494% → 97%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
93.9%
[NH] Kneel down by NAV at UNT22 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 22
0
96.6%
[NH] Kneel down by NAV at UNT23 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:07
Alex Tecza run for 21 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
+27
TD · Q4 5:23
Ayo Adeyi run for 47 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)
-24.7
TD · Q4 13:01
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 18 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)
-18.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com