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WAG

Wagner 0 at Navy 24

NAVY
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadWAG aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreWAG score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:23 · Bailey Marzola punt for 35 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Pregame prior+24.0Home team on offense+20.6Score differential+8.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.6Garbage-time factor+5.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 2:20: Evan Warren 27 yd FG GOOD — WAG win probability +0.5 pts (now 3%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:08: Tai Lavatai pass complete to Camari Williams for 12 yds for a TD (Evan Warren KICK) — NAVY win probability +1.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 9:34: Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the NAVY 24 — NAVY win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:27: Brandon Chatman run for 7 yds to the WAG 46 — NAVY win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:44: Eli Heidenreich run for 46 yds for a TD (Evan Warren KICK) — NAVY win probability +1.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 9WAG made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 11:19WAG 4th & 6 at WAG 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:32WAG 4th & 11 at WAG 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:41NAVY 4th & 7 at WAG 32, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.1%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:08WAG 4th & 8 at WAG 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:50NAVY 4th & 19 at NAVY 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:30WAG 4th & 4 at NAVY 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:59NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:26WAG 4th & 6 at WAG 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:20NAVY 4th & 4 at WAG 10, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.7%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    94.7%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:21NAVY 4th & 5 at WAG 14, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:34WAG 4th & 7 at NAVY 41, down 17
    Close callPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:45NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 27, up 17
    Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:23WAG 4th & 23 at NAVY 37, down 17
    Close callPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:28NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 22, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:27WAG 4th & 1 at NAVY 46, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−1.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−0.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:30WAG 4th & 9 at WAG 26, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:01NAVY 4th & 12 at WAG 32, up 24
    Close callWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%
    51% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:53WAG 4th & 8 at WAG 34, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:25NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 44, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:20WAG 4th & 8 at WAG 14, down 24
    Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 7:46NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:08NAVY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:44NAVY Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WAGDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 3:411% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 9
OWN 19
-5
99.1%
Wagner Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WAG 14Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 14
OWN 14
+8
99.1%
Zachary Palmer-Smith run for 8 yds to the WAG 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+10
99.1%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Jr. Mark Didio for 10 yds to the WAG 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
99.1%
Wagner Penalty, False Start (Rickey Spruill) to the WAG 27Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+4
99.1%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Rickey Spruill for 4 yds to the WAG 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+2
99.1%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Jr. Mark Didio for 2 yds to the WAG 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 33
-5
99.1%
Wagner Penalty, False Start (Guenson Alexis) to the WAG 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 28
+8
99.1%
Steven Krajewski run for 8 yds to the WAG 36Similar
Q1 11:19
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
98.9%
Bailey Marzola punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 3:3399% → 99%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
98.9%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the NAVY 25Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+13
98.9%
Brandon Chatman run for 13 yds to the NAVY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
98.9%
Amin Hassan run for 6 yds to the NAVY 44Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+5
98.9%
Brandon Chatman run for 5 yds to the NAVY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+45
98.9%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Anton Hall Jr. for 45 yds to the WAG 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
98.9%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the WAG 3Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.7%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds for a TD (Evan Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:141% → 2%
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.7%
Zachary Palmer-Smith run for 3 yds to the WAG 28Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
98.7%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
98.7%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Jr. Mark Didio for 8 yds to the WAG 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
98.7%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Jr. Mark Didio for 4 yds to the WAG 40Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
98.7%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-5
98.5%
Wagner Penalty, False Start (Guenson Alexis) to the WAG 35Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
98.5%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:32
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
98.5%
Bailey Marzola punt for 13 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4MISSED FG
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:5199% → 98%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
98.6%
Tyler Bradley run for 13 yds to the WAG 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
98.6%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for no gain to the WAG 35Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
98.6%
Brandon Chatman run for 2 yds to the WAG 33Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+1
98.6%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 1 yd to the WAG 32Similar
Q1 2:41
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+49
98.3%
Evan Warren 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:332% → 2%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
98.2%
Zachary Palmer-Smith run for 3 yds to the WAG 35Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-1
98.2%
Zachary Palmer-Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the WAG 34Similar
Q1 2:41
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
98.2%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:08
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
98.1%
Bailey Marzola punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:1898% → 98%
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
98.1%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the NAVY 29Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
98.1%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 29
-11
98.0%
Blake Horvath run for a loss of 11 yards to the NAVY 18 Blake Horvath fumbled, recovered by NAVY Blake HorvathSimilar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 19
OWN 18
0
97.9%
Riley Riethman punt for 36 yds, downed at the NAVY 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 7FUMBLE
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:512% → 3%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
97.8%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+8
97.8%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Jr. Mark Didio for 8 yds to the NAVY 31Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 2
OPP 31
-2
97.7%
Rickey Spruill run for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 33Similar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+7
97.8%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Jr. Mark Didio for 7 yds to the NAVY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
97.7%
Damien Mazil pass complete to Trevor Shorter for 6 yds to the NAVY 20Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 4
OPP 20
-4
97.4%
Rickey Spruill run for a loss of 4 yards to the NAVY 24 Rickey Spruill fumbled, recovered by NAVY Jacob BusicSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0098% → 97%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
97.7%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 26Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+3
97.7%
Amin Hassan run for 3 yds to the NAVY 29Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
97.7%
Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the NAVY 29Similar
Q2 9:59
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
97.3%
Riley Riethman punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:333% → 3%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
97.5%
Zachary Palmer-Smith run for 2 yds to the WAG 25Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+2
97.5%
Damien Mazil run for 2 yds to the WAG 27Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
97.5%
Damien Mazil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
97.4%
Bailey Marzola punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 6:0697% → 97%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
97.3%
Tai Lavatai run for 11 yds to the NAVY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
97.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the NAVY 48Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+4
97.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the WAG 48Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+7
97.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the WAG 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
97.4%
Daba Fofana run for 6 yds to the WAG 35Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+3
97.5%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the WAG 32Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+5
97.4%
Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the WAG 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
97.5%
Eli Heidenreich run for 11 yds to the WAG 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
97.5%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the WAG 14Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+3
97.5%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the WAG 11Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+1
97.4%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the WAG 10Similar
Q2 2:20
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+27
96.9%
Evan Warren 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 11INT
7 plays · 37 yds · 1:323% → 4%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
97.0%
Zachary Palmer-Smith run for 10 yds to the WAG 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
96.9%
Zachary Palmer-Smith run for 14 yds to the WAG 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
96.7%
Damien Mazil pass complete to Guenson Alexis for 7 yds to the NAVY 44Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 3
OPP 44
0
96.5%
Damien Mazil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+6
96.6%
Damien Mazil pass complete to Jr. Mark Didio for 6 yds to the NAVY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
96.1%
Damien Mazil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
96.2%
Damien Mazil pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 0:4097% → 98%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+35
96.6%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Nathan Kent for 35 yds to the WAG 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
96.9%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Nathan Kent for 10 yds to the WAG 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
96.9%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Alex Tecza for 14 yds to the WAG 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
96.6%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Camari Williams for 9 yds to the WAG 12Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+12
98.2%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Camari Williams for 12 yds for a TD (Evan Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
97.7%
Kneel down by WAG at WAG30 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14MISSED FG
9 plays · 61 yds · 2:3998% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.9%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.9%
Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
97.8%
Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the NAVY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+32
97.9%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Cody Howard for 32 yds to the WAG 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
98.0%
Daba Fofana run for 12 yds to the WAG 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
98.0%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
98.0%
Eli Heidenreich run for 5 yds to the WAG 14Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
97.9%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:21
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+31
97.8%
Evan Warren 31 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:472% → 3%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
97.7%
Zachary Palmer-Smith run for 1 yd to the WAG 31Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
97.7%
Zachary Palmer-Smith run for no gain to the WAG 31Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+12
97.9%
Damien Mazil pass complete to Jr. Mark Didio for 12 yds to the WAG 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
97.6%
Damien Mazil pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+13
97.7%
Damien Mazil pass complete to Rickey Spruill for 13 yds to the NAVY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
97.5%
Rickey Spruill run for 3 yds to the NAVY 41Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
97.5%
Damien Mazil pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
97.5%
Damien Mazil pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:34
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
97.5%
Bailey Marzola punt for 21 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4998% → 98%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
98.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the NAVY 24Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-1
98.2%
Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 23Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+4
98.1%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 4 yds to the NAVY 27Similar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
97.9%
Riley Riethman punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jr. Mark Didio at the WAG 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 17PUNT
15 plays · 41 yds · 7:223% → 2%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
97.5%
Damien Mazil pass complete to Jeremiah Colclough for 7 yds to the WAG 29Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 3
OWN 29
-5
97.4%
Wagner Penalty, False Start (Mateusz Zilienski) to the WAG 24Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+7
97.6%
Zachary Palmer-Smith run for 7 yds to the WAG 31Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+1
97.4%
Zachary Palmer-Smith run for 1 yd to the WAG 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
97.4%
Damien Mazil pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
97.5%
Rickey Spruill run for 3 yds to the WAG 35Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+27
97.5%
Damien Mazil pass complete to Jaylen Bonelli for 27 yds to the NAVY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
97.2%
Rickey Spruill run for 8 yds to the NAVY 30Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+6
96.9%
Damien Mazil pass complete to Jeremiah Colclough for 6 yds to the NAVY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
96.9%
Wagner Penalty, False Start (Mateo Lucero) to the NAVY 29Similar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 15
OPP 29
-5
97.1%
Damien Mazil sacked by Jacob Busic for a loss of 5 yards to the NAVY 34Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 20
OPP 34
-10
97.2%
Wagner Penalty, Offensive Holding (Prinz Guitian) to the NAVY 41Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 27
OPP 41
0
97.4%
Zachary Palmer-Smith run for no gain to the NAVY 41Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 27
OPP 41
+4
97.6%
Zachary Palmer-Smith run for 4 yds to the NAVY 37Similar
Q3 0:23
4TH & 23
OPP 37
0
97.8%
Bailey Marzola punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:3298% → 98%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
97.9%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the NAVY 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+10
97.9%
Tai Lavatai run for 10 yds to the NAVY 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
98.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the NAVY 15Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+3
98.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the NAVY 18Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+4
98.1%
Eli Heidenreich run for 4 yds to the NAVY 22Similar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 2
OWN 22
0
98.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jr. Mark Didio at the WAG 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:012% → 2%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.6%
Damien Mazil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
97.6%
Damien Mazil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+10
97.8%
Damien Mazil pass complete to Guenson Alexis for 10 yds to the WAG 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
97.6%
Rickey Spruill run for 8 yds to the NAVY 47Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+1
97.5%
Rickey Spruill run for 1 yd to the NAVY 46Similar
Q4 11:36
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
97.5%
Damien Mazil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:27
4TH & 1
OPP 46
-1
97.8%
Rickey Spruill run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20TD
2 plays · 53 yds · 0:4399% → 100%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
98.6%
Brandon Chatman run for 7 yds to the WAG 46Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+46
99.7%
Eli Heidenreich run for 46 yds for a TD (Evan Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:141% → 1%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.4%
MAZIL, Damien scrambles up the middle for a gain of 8 yards to the WAG33 (MCDONALD, Xavier;HARBOUR, Will). PENALTY WAG Holding on ANDERSON, Brady enforced 10 yards from the WAG25 to the WAG15 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+4
99.4%
Damien Mazil pass complete to Jeff Nyamekye for 4 yds to the WAG 19Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
99.5%
Damien Mazil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+7
99.5%
Rickey Spruill run for 7 yds to the WAG 26Similar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.5%
Bailey Marzola punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:29100% → 100%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
99.8%
Navy Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WAG 36Similar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 16
OPP 36
-1
99.7%
Alex Tecza run for a loss of 1 yard to the WAG 37Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 17
OPP 37
+5
99.7%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the WAG 32Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 12
OPP 32
0
99.8%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:01
4TH & 12
OPP 32
0
99.7%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:080% → 0%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.6%
Sekou Kamau run for no gain to the WAG 32Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
99.6%
Sekou Kamau run for no gain to the WAG 32Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+2
99.7%
Damien Mazil pass complete to Sekou Kamau for 2 yds to the WAG 34Similar
Q4 4:53
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
99.7%
Bailey Marzola punt for 41 yds, downed at the NAVY 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
99.8%
Braxton Woodson run for 4 yds to the NAVY 44Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
99.8%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-5
99.8%
Navy Penalty, False Start (Joshua Pena) to the NAVY 39Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 11
OWN 39
-5
99.8%
Navy Penalty, False Start (Alex Tecza) to the NAVY 34Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 16
OWN 34
+10
99.8%
Braxton Woodson run for 10 yds to the NAVY 44Similar
Q4 3:25
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
99.8%
Riley Riethman punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jr. Mark Didio at the WAG 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:050% → 0%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
99.7%
Piotr Partyla run for no gain to the WAG 12Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+1
99.7%
Piotr Partyla run for 1 yd to the WAG 13Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+1
99.7%
Piotr Partyla run for 1 yd to the WAG 14Similar
Q4 1:20
4TH & 8
OWN 14
0
99.7%
Bailey Marzola punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 19 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
99.8%
Alex Tecza run for 7 yds to the NAVY 48Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+1
99.8%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Xavier Arline for 1 yd to the NAVY 49Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+11
99.8%
Braxton Woodson run for 11 yds to the WAG 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:08
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Camari Williams for 12 yds for a TD (Evan Warren KICK)
+1.5
TD · Q4 10:44
Eli Heidenreich run for 46 yds for a TD (Evan Warren KICK)
+1.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:27
Brandon Chatman run for 7 yds to the WAG 46
+0.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com