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SMU

SMU 38 at Memphis 34

MEM
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:57 · Reid Bauer punt for 56 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Pregame prior−4.0Home team on offense−5.3Garbage-time factor−3.2Score differential−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:35: LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +12.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:27: Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Henigan pass to Anthony Landphere for Two-Point Conversion) — MEM win probability +25.5 pts (now 56%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:17: Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +16.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:55: Blake Watson run for 11 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK) — MEM win probability +24.2 pts (now 60%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:53: Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 20 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis PAT MISSED) — MEM win probability +23.9 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:16SMU 4th & 5 at MEM 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    69.5%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:25MEM 4th & 7 at SMU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    29.4%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:15SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:37SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:11MEM 4th & 5 at MEM 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:01MEM 4th & 7 at SMU 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    34.8%−0.9
    28% to make
    Punt
    35.3%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:46MEM 4th & 3 at SMU 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−5.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:01MEM 4th & 1 at SMU 3, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.4%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    21.5%−3.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−14.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:25SMU 4th & 5 at MEM 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−1.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−17.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:57MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−2.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:21SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−1.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:34MEM 4th & 19 at MEM 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−4.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:16SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:56MEM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:07SMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:35SMU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:27MEM Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    42.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    42.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:17SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:55MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:41SMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:53MEM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    13.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.4%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 30 yds · 1:2030% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
30.4%
Blake Watson run for 7 yds to the MEM 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
30.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 7 yds to the MEM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
31.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 16 yds Demeer Blankumsee fumbled, recovered by SMU Ahmad Walker [NHSG] HENIGAN, Seth pass to the left complete for 16 yards to BLANKUMSEE, DeMeer caught at the MEM50, BLANKUMSEE, DeMeer fumbled at MEM50 forced by SANDERS JR., Cale, recovered by SMU WALKER, Ahmad at the SMU45, returned 7 yards to the MEM48 (LIKES, Jacob;SANDERS JR., Cale), clock 13:40.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 1:2469% → 69%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
30.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the MEM 44Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+1
30.8%
Preston Stone run for 1 yd to the MEM 43Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
30.9%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:16
4TH & 5
OPP 43
+43
30.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 43 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:5131% → 33%
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.7%
Blake Watson run for no gain to the MEM 25Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
30.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 12 yds to the MEM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
30.8%
Blake Watson run for 4 yds to the MEM 41Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
30.9%
Seth Henigan run for 5 yds to the MEM 46Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+3
30.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 3 yds to the MEM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
30.9%
Seth Henigan sacked by Cameron Robertson for a loss of 5 yards to the MEM 44Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+24
30.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 24 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
31.1%
Blake Watson run for 3 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
31.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
31.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:25
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+47
32.8%
Tanner Gillis 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:1068% → 67%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
32.5%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 17 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
32.0%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
32.2%
Camar Wheaton run for 5 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
32.1%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:15
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
32.9%
punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 5:1933% → 39%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
32.7%
Sutton Smith run for 5 yds to the MEM 25Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+5
32.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 5 yds to the MEM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
32.8%
Blake Watson run for 1 yd to the MEM 31Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+11
32.8%
Seth Henigan run for 11 yds to the MEM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
33.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 2
50
+10
33.7%
Blake Watson run for 10 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
33.7%
Seth Henigan run for 4 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+12
33.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 12 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-4
34.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sutton Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 13
OPP 27
+27
39.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 27 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:1962% → 61%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
38.1%
Preston Stone run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+17
37.8%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 17 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
37.3%
STONE, Preston pass to the left complete for 14 yards to DANIELS, JR., Roderick caught at the MEM40 and advanced to the MEM40 (SMITH, Cameron), clock 00:00. PENALTY SMU Holding on PARR, Logan enforced 10 yards from the SMU46 to the SMU36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+8
38.6%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 8 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+5
38.0%
Preston Stone run for 5 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
37.5%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
39.4%
punt for 18 yds, downed at the MEM 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2639% → 39%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
39.2%
Blake Watson run for no gain to the MEM 33Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
39.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 5 yds to the MEM 38Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
39.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
39.2%
Reid Bauer punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 6:0460% → 67%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
40.0%
Camar Wheaton run for 5 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+6
39.4%
Camar Wheaton run for 6 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
39.0%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+16
39.3%
Preston Stone run for 16 yds to the MEM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
38.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 15 yds to the MEM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
37.6%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the MEM 24Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+7
37.6%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the MEM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
37.6%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the MEM 13Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+2
37.6%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the MEM 11Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+5
38.3%
Preston Stone pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 5 yds to the MEM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
37.6%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the MEM 5Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
37.6%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the MEM 1Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.2%
Preston Stone run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 5:1535% → 41%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
35.4%
SMU Penalty, Roughing the Passer on ROGERS, Jahari enforced (Jahari Rogers) to the MEM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
35.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
35.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 4 yds to the MEM 39Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+15
35.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 15 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
38.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 4 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 6
OPP 42
-1
38.4%
Brandon Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
37.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 7
OPP 43
+18
36.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 18 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
39.2%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
39.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 5 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+2
38.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 2 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+36
41.4%
Tanner Gillis 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:3462% → 63%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
38.1%
Camar Wheaton run for 5 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+4
37.5%
Camar Wheaton run for 4 yds to the SMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 5:2161% → 77%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
38.6%
Camar Wheaton run for 4 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
38.4%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+14
39.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to Romello Brinson for 14 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
37.1%
Preston Stone pass complete to Romello Brinson for 8 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-10
36.4%
Preston Stone sacked by Greg Rubin for a loss of 10 yards to the SMU 36Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+24
39.5%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jake Bailey for 24 yds to the MEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
36.0%
Camar Wheaton run for 11 yds to the MEM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
34.9%
Camar Wheaton run for 8 yds to the MEM 21Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+3
34.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the MEM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
34.9%
Preston Stone pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 5 yds to the MEM 13Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+10
34.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 10 yds to the MEM 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
34.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the MEM 1Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0827% → 56%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
26.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
50
-3
30.0%
Blake Watson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MEM 47Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 13
OWN 47
-10
28.1%
HENIGAN, Seth pass short to the left incomplete thrown to the MEM50; QB hurried by ROBERTS, Elijah. PENALTY MEM Holding on POUNDERS, Makylan enforced 10 yards from the MEM47 to the MEM37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 23
OWN 37
+17
26.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 17 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+34
29.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 34 yds to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
31.7%
Sutton Smith run for 2 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+4
31.7%
Blake Watson run for 4 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+3
28.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 3 yds to the SMU 3Similar
Q3 5:01
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+1
27.5%
Seth Henigan run for 1 yd to the SMU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
30.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the SMU 1Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
56.4%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Henigan pass to Anthony Landphere for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1055% → 77%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
45.5%
Preston Stone pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 27 yds to the MEM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+31
41.2%
Preston Stone pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 31 yds to the MEM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+16
39.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 16 yds to the MEM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.0%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2231% → 60%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
30.5%
HENIGAN, Seth pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for LANDPHERE, Anthony thrown to the SMU50. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on WILSON, Kobe enforced 15 yards to the MEM40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
33.0%
Seth Henigan run for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 39Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+17
31.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 17 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
34.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 9 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 1
OPP 35
-2
37.2%
Seth Henigan run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 33 Seth Henigan fumbled, recovered by MEM Blake Watson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
37.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 3 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
37.2%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+24
34.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 24 yds to the SMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
35.3%
Memphis Penalty, False Start (Tauskie Dove) to the SMU 11Similar
Q4 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
59.5%
Blake Watson run for 11 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15FG
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:3053% → 64%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
47.5%
Preston Stone pass complete to Romello Brinson for 23 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+32
43.3%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 32 yds to the MEM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
41.0%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the MEM 14Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 4
OPP 14
-1
41.0%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 15Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
42.9%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
35.7%
Collin Rogers 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2841% → 38%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
40.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
39.2%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:57
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
37.7%
Reid Bauer punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3665% → 64%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
35.4%
Preston Stone run for no gain to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
36.0%
Camar Wheaton run for 3 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
36.0%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
35.6%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:4740% → 38%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
39.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sutton Smith for 8 yds to the MEM 34Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+19
42.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 19 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
44.4%
HENIGAN, Seth pass up the middle complete for 17 yards to DRAKE, Koby caught at the SMU34 and advanced to the SMU30 (MCGILL, Jonathan). PENALTY MEM Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on LIKES, Jacob enforced 5 yards from the SMU47 to the MEM48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 15
OWN 48
0
41.2%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+1
40.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 1 yd to the MEM 49Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 14
OWN 49
0
38.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:47
4TH & 14
OWN 49
-5
38.6%
BAUER, Reid punt 50 yards to the SMU1 downed by HAWKINS, Jamari, clock 07:47. PENALTY Before the snap, MEM Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the MEM49 to the MEM44. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 19
OWN 44
0
37.8%
Reid Bauer punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 4:5368% → 95%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
32.1%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the SMU 27Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+25
32.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 25 yds to the MEM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
28.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the MEM 43Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+10
28.2%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 10 yds to the MEM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
27.0%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the MEM 31Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+11
27.0%
Preston Stone pass complete to Romello Brinson for 11 yds to the MEM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
26.7%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 12 yds to the MEM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
17.1%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the MEM 7Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
5.1%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 7 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 1:446% → 33%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
6.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 6 yds to the MEM 36Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+3
6.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 3 yds to the MEM 39Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+19
6.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 19 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
7.7%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
7.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+12
7.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 12 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
9.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+10
9.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 10 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
9.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
33.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 20 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · -30 yds · 0:5395% → 94%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
5.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by STONE, Preston at MEM49 (team loss of 6).Similar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
4.8%
[NHSG] Kneel down by STONE, Preston at MEM49 (team loss of 6).Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 16
OPP 49
-17
5.7%
Preston Stone run for a loss of 17 yards to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 33
OWN 34
-7
6.3%
Preston Stone run for a loss of 7 yards to the SMU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:27
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Henigan pass to Anthony Landphere for Two-Point Conversion)
+25.5
TD · Q4 14:55
Blake Watson run for 11 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)
+24.2
TD · Q4 0:53
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 20 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis PAT MISSED)
+23.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com