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MEM

Memphis 45 at North Texas 42

UNT
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+59.6UNT 93.4%Chandler Rogers pass complete toJa'Mori Maclin for 6 yds for a TD(Noah Rauschenberg KICK)AWAY 38 - HOME 42 · Q4 0:47
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:47 · Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 6 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 156Home team on offense+23.7Pregame prior−0.3Score differential+0.8Garbage-time factor+14.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 11:59: Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK) — MEM win probability +11.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:32: Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 35 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK) — UNT win probability +11.6 pts (now 19%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:19: Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 17 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK) — UNT win probability +25.9 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 0:47: Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 6 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK) — UNT win probability +59.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:12: Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 36 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK) — MEM win probability +66.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 11:14UNT 4th & 3 at MEM 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    34.3%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    33.7%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:12MEM 4th & 9 at UNT 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    63.0%−3.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:04UNT 4th & 21 at UNT 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−1.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:23UNT 4th & 2 at UNT 20, down 17
    Close callPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:46UNT 4th & 10 at MEM 22, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−5.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:08UNT 4th & 4 at UNT 37, down 21
    Close callPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:04MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 47, up 21
    Close callPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:01UNT 4th & 7 at MEM 10, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−5.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:51MEM 4th & 1 at UNT 27, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.1%−2.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    84.0%−7.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:11MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 34, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:33MEM 4th & 3 at MEM 42, up 10
    Close callPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:56MEM 4th & 7 at UNT 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    79.2%−3.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    79.5%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 1 of 5MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 14:14MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:51MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:18UNT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:57MEM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:05MEM Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:01UNT Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    17.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    17.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:59MEM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:32UNT Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.3%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:19UNT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.7%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.9%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:47UNT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:12MEM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:4671% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
29.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 11 yds to the MEM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
29.2%
Blake Watson run for 64 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2DOWNS
9 plays · 62 yds · 2:5329% → 30%
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
29.2%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+10
29.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 10 yds to the UNT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
29.2%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+10
29.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 10 yds to the UNT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+35
29.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 35 yds to the MEM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
29.3%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-2
29.3%
Ayo Adeyi run for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 35Similar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+9
29.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Xzavior Kautai for 9 yds to the MEM 26Similar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 3
OPP 26
0
29.8%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 1:2371% → 72%
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
29.5%
Blake Watson run for 5 yds to the MEM 31Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+4
29.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 4 yds to the MEM 35Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+65
28.2%
Blake Watson run for 65 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:2828% → 30%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
28.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 4 yds to the UNT 40Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
28.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the UNT 42Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+8
28.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Smart for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
50
+19
28.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Blair Conwright for 19 yds to the MEM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
28.8%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Keveion'ta Spears for a loss of 10 yards to the MEM 41Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 20
OPP 41
+41
30.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 41 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5FG
15 plays · 65 yds · 8:0670% → 71%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
29.7%
Seth Henigan sacked by Ethan Wesloski and Jordan Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 23Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+12
29.8%
Sutton Smith run for 12 yds to the MEM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
29.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 12 yds to the MEM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
29.2%
Sutton Smith run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 7
50
+10
29.1%
Sutton Smith run for 10 yds to the UNT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
29.1%
Sutton Smith run for 1 yd to the UNT 39Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+5
29.1%
Seth Henigan run for 5 yds to the UNT 34Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+9
29.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 9 yds to the UNT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
28.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 4 yds to the UNT 21Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+4
28.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 4 yds to the UNT 17Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+6
29.1%
Brandon Thomas run for 6 yds to the UNT 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
28.7%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNT 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-1
28.7%
Brandon Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
29.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+28
29.2%
Tanner Gillis 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 3:0329% → 28%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+22
28.5%
Ayo Adeyi run for 22 yds to the UNT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
29.2%
North Texas Penalty, False Start (Roderic Burns) to the UNT 40Similar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+11
28.7%
Kaylon Horton run for 11 yds to the MEM 49Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
29.7%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+8
29.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 8 yds to the MEM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
29.7%
ROGERS, Chandler pass up the middle incomplete intended for SIDES, Landon thrown to the MEM30; QB hurried by ALLEN, Jaylon. PENALTY UNT Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on MINER, Ethan enforced 5 yards from the MEM41 to the MEM46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 15
OPP 46
0
29.3%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+3
28.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the MEM 43Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 12
OPP 43
-9
28.6%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Chandler Martin for a loss of 9 yards to the UNT 48Similar
Q2 11:04
4TH & 21
OWN 48
0
27.9%
Sawyer Evans punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7TD
11 plays · 90 yds · 6:0771% → 83%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
28.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 13 yds to the MEM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
28.6%
Blake Watson run for 5 yds to the MEM 28Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+5
28.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 5 yds to the MEM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
28.2%
Blake Watson run for no gain to the MEM 33Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+32
28.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 32 yds to the UNT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
27.4%
Blake Watson run for 1 yd to the UNT 34Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+14
27.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 14 yds to the UNT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
27.4%
SMITH, Sutton rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the UNT16 (SMITH, Jaylen). PENALTY Before the snap, MEM Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the UNT20 to the UNT25. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+24
27.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 24 yds to the UNT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
27.4%
Sutton Smith run for no gain to the UNT 1Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.6%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2120% → 19%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
20.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 7 yds to the UNT 19Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+1
20.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Oscar Adaway III for 1 yd to the UNT 20Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 2
OWN 20
0
20.2%
Oscar Adaway III run for no gain to the UNT 20Similar
Q2 3:23
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
19.3%
Sawyer Evans punt for 43 yds , returns for no gain to the MEM 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:1883% → 90%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
16.6%
Blake Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 36Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
16.7%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+63
16.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 63 yds to the UNT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 1:1914% → 14%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.9%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
13.8%
Ayo Adeyi run for 12 yds to the UNT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
14.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 9 yds to the UNT 46Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+5
15.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 5 yds to the MEM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
15.3%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
15.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 9 yds to the MEM 40Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+18
13.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 18 yds to the MEM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
13.8%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
13.5%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
12.9%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+39
14.4%
Noah Rauschenberg 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:4691% → 92%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
8.7%
Sutton Smith run for 9 yds to the MEM 34Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-2
8.1%
Sutton Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4713% → 13%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
13.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 6 yds to the UNT 37Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 37
0
13.3%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
13.3%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:08
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
12.7%
Sawyer Evans punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0491% → 92%
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
8.8%
Blake Watson run for 9 yds to the MEM 48Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 1
OWN 48
-2
8.6%
Blake Watson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 46Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+1
9.2%
Seth Henigan run for 1 yd to the MEM 47Similar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
8.1%
Reid Bauer punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14FG
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:0712% → 14%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+67
11.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for 67 yds to the MEM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-4
13.3%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 4 yards to the MEM 17Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 14
OPP 17
0
13.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for no gain to the MEM 17Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 14
OPP 17
+7
12.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 7 yds to the MEM 10Similar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+27
13.9%
Noah Rauschenberg 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 48 yds · 4:1089% → 92%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
10.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 13 yds to the MEM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
10.0%
Blake Watson run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
50
+2
9.8%
Blake Watson run for 2 yds to the UNT 48Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+7
9.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 7 yds to the UNT 41Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+5
9.6%
North Texas Penalty, Offsides (Roderick Brown) to the UNT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
9.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
9.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 9 yds to the UNT 27Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 1
OPP 27
0
9.5%
Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the UNT 27Similar
Q3 4:51
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
7.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:5011% → 24%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+24
11.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 24 yds to the MEM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
12.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Blair Conwright for 16 yds to the MEM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
13.1%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
13.0%
Ayo Adeyi run for 6 yds to the MEM 27Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+7
12.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 7 yds to the MEM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+16
13.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 16 yds to the MEM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
24.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 4 yds for a TD (Chandler Rogers pass to Ja'Mori Maclin for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5080% → 80%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
20.0%
Seth Henigan run for 2 yds to the MEM 27Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
19.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 7 yds to the MEM 34Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
19.7%
Blake Watson run for no gain to the MEM 34Similar
Q3 0:11
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
20.1%
Reid Bauer punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:1519% → 19%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
18.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Oscar Adaway III for 15 yds to the UNT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
19.6%
Landon Sides run for 7 yds to the UNT 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 40
-3
21.0%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 37Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 6
OWN 37
-7
18.6%
C. Rogers sacked for -7 yds Chandler Rogers sacked for a loss of 7 yards, fumble on the sack, forced by Jaylon Allen), recovered by MEM Geoffrey Cantin-Arku, at the UNT30, returned 0 yards to the UNT30, End of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19TD
4 plays · 30 yds · 1:4683% → 95%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
17.0%
Blake Watson run for 3 yds to the UNT 27Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+26
16.8%
Sutton Smith run for 26 yds to the UNT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
16.5%
Sutton Smith run for no gain to the UNT 1Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.3%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:277% → 19%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
6.8%
Ayo Adeyi run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
50
0
7.3%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 10
50
0
7.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 10
50
+15
7.1%
ROGERS, Chandler pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WARD, Damon thrown to the MEM24. PENALTY MEM Pass Interference on BARNETT, Julian enforced 15 yards to the MEM35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
18.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 35 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:5985% → 88%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
15.1%
Seth Henigan run for 9 yds to the MEM 34Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
14.4%
Blake Watson run for 1 yd to the MEM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
14.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 6 yds to the MEM 41Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+1
13.7%
Blake Watson run for 1 yd to the MEM 42Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
14.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:33
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
12.3%
Reid Bauer punt for 40 yds, downed at the UNT 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 3:1413% → 43%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
12.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Oscar Adaway III for 15 yds to the UNT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
13.3%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-4
12.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Christian Lee for a loss of 4 yards to the UNT 29Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 14
OWN 29
+27
11.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 27 yds to the MEM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
15.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
15.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for 6 yds to the MEM 38Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+4
15.5%
Chandler Rogers run for 4 yds to the MEM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
16.8%
Oscar Adaway III run for 6 yds to the MEM 28Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+6
17.1%
Oscar Adaway III run for 6 yds to the MEM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
17.0%
ROGERS, Chandler pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MACLIN, Ja'Mori thrown to the MEM0. PENALTY Before the snap, MEM Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the MEM22 to the MEM17. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 5
OPP 17
+17
42.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 17 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:2375% → 86%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
25.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 12 yds to the MEM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
23.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 19 yds to the UNT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
17.2%
Blake Watson run for 4 yds to the UNT 40Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
14.7%
Blake Watson run for no gain to the UNT 40Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 6
OPP 40
-1
15.9%
Seth Henigan run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 41Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
13.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 1:0930% → 93%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
30.1%
Ayo Adeyi run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNT 39Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+9
28.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 9 yds to the UNT 48Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+12
30.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 12 yds to the MEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+34
33.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 34 yds to the MEM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
93.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 6 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:3524% → 95%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
76.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 19 yds to the MEM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
70.6%
Memphis Penalty, False Start (Anthony Landphere) to the MEM 39Similar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+18
76.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 18 yds to the UNT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
67.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 4 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+3
66.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 3 yds to the UNT 36Similar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+36
5.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 36 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 26Uncategorized
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:1114% → 15%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
14.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Smart for 12 yds to the UNT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
15.4%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-5
14.5%
ROGERS, Chandler pass to the left complete for 2 yards to MACLIN, Ja'Mori caught at the UNT44 and advanced to the UNT38 lateral to BURNS, Roderic for -25 yards to the UNT13 lateral to SMART, Jordan for -2 yards to the UNT11 lateral to ADAWAY III, Oscar for -4 yards to the UNT7 lateral to ROGERS, Chandler for 3 yards to the UNT10 lateral to MACLIN, Ja'Mori for 28 yards to the UNT38 lateral to BURNS, Roderic for 37 yards to the MEM25 lateral to MACLIN, Ja'Mori for -44 yards to the MEM25, End of Play, clock 00:00. PENALTY UNT Illegal Forward Pass on ROGERS, Chandler enforced 5 yards from the UNT36 to the UNT31, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:12
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 36 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)
-66.8
TD · Q4 0:47
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 6 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)
+59.6
TD · Q4 4:19
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 17 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)
+25.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com