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NAVY

Navy 24 at Memphis 28

MEM
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2023 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · [NHSG] Kneel down by HENIGAN, Seth at MEM6 (team loss of 4), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:23: Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 7 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK) — MEM win probability +11.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:24: Seth Henigan run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK) — MEM win probability +8.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:08: Anton Hall Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Warren KICK) — NAVY win probability +12.8 pts (now 37%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:22: Seth Henigan run for 3 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK) — MEM win probability +17.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 7:09: Nathan Kirkwood 36 yd FG GOOD — NAVY win probability +8.8 pts (now 26%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:38NAVY 4th & 7 at MEM 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    21.3%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:04MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:06MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:42MEM 4th & 15 at NAVY 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    66.2%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:04NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:05MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:19NAVY 4th & 1 at MEM 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    44.1%−2.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    44.5%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:43MEM 4th & 4 at NAVY 32, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.9%−1.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    65.3%−3.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:18NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:46MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 42, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:20NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 37, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:50NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:47MEM 4th & 11 at MEM 4, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−3.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:09NAVY 4th & 11 at MEM 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−4.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−10.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:09NAVY 4th & 6 at MEM 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    12.4%−6.6
    83% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−9.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:15MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:03NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:14NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:23MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:24MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:08NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:22MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 4:1716% → 17%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
84.2%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 4 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+4
84.2%
Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the NAVY 36Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+5
84.2%
Amin Hassan run for 5 yds to the NAVY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
84.2%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the NAVY 46Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+5
84.2%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the MEM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
84.2%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the MEM 46Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
84.2%
Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the MEM 46Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
84.2%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:38
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
82.9%
Riley Riethman punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 5:2383% → 84%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+21
82.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 21 yds to the MEM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
83.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+10
83.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 10 yds to the MEM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
83.1%
Blake Watson run for 5 yds to the MEM 46Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
83.2%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+10
83.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 10 yds to the NAVY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
83.3%
Blake Watson run for 10 yds to the NAVY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
83.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+14
83.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 14 yds to the NAVY 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
83.3%
Sutton Smith run for 1 yd to the NAVY 19Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+1
83.3%
Seth Henigan run for 1 yd to the NAVY 18Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+11
83.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 11 yds to the NAVY 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
84.0%
Blake Watson run for 7 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
81.0%
Alex Tecza run for 75 yds for a TD (Evan Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5481% → 80%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
81.0%
Sutton Smith run for 4 yds to the MEM 26Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
81.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
80.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:04
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
80.2%
Reid Bauer punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 2:5019% → 26%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
80.6%
Daba Fofana run for 19 yds to the NAVY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
80.1%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
80.3%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the NAVY 45Similar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+9
80.3%
Alex Tecza run for 9 yds to the MEM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+30
79.9%
Alex Tecza run for 30 yds to the MEM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
74.4%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Regis Velez for 16 yds for a TD (Evan Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0876% → 74%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
75.8%
Jevyon Ducker run for 2 yds to the MEM 27Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
75.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 11 yds to the MEM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
75.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Jevyon Ducker for 2 yds to the MEM 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+2
75.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 2 yds to the MEM 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
75.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
74.1%
Reid Bauer punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · 17 yds · 1:1626% → 28%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
74.0%
Daba Fofana run for 12 yds to the NAVY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
73.5%
Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the NAVY 37Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
72.2%
Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the NAVY 37 Tai Lavatai fumbled, recovered by MEM CorMontae HamiltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 2:0875% → 71%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
74.9%
Blake Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 38Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-9
74.7%
Roc Taylor run for a loss of 9 yards to the NAVY 47Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 20
OPP 47
+5
73.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 5 yds to the NAVY 42Similar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 15
OPP 42
0
71.1%
Reid Bauer punt for 37 yds, downed at the NAVY 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 4:3828% → 33%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
71.6%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 6Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+6
71.7%
Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the NAVY 12Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+4
72.0%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the NAVY 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
71.3%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the NAVY 17Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
71.4%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+17
72.0%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Daba Fofana for 17 yds to the NAVY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
70.8%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the NAVY 35Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 9
OWN 35
-1
70.8%
Amin Hassan run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 34Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
71.7%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
67.0%
Riley Riethman punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5967% → 64%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
66.5%
Blake Watson run for 2 yds to the MEM 20Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
66.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
65.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:05
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
64.1%
Reid Bauer punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11DOWNS
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:4636% → 41%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
64.2%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 33Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+1
64.1%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Camari Williams for 1 yd to the NAVY 34Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+13
64.8%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 13 yds to the NAVY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
59.7%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the NAVY 48Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+6
59.8%
Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the MEM 46Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+2
59.6%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the MEM 44Similar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
58.7%
Alex Tecza run for no gain to the MEM 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12TD
10 plays · 56 yds · 0:5665% → 77%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
64.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 7 yds to the NAVY 49Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+9
65.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 9 yds to the NAVY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
64.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 6 yds to the NAVY 34Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+10
65.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 10 yds to the NAVY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
65.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 5 yds to the NAVY 19Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+7
65.4%
Seth Henigan run for 7 yds to the NAVY 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
65.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 5 yds to the NAVY 7Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
76.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 7 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.1%
[NH] Kneel down by LAVATAI, Tai at NAV23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14TD
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:3676% → 84%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
76.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 9 yds to the NAVY 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 38
0
76.2%
Sutton Smith run for no gain to the NAVY 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+3
75.7%
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds to the NAVY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
76.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 3 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
76.7%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+31
74.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 31 yds to the NAVY 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
75.8%
PENALTY MEM Unsportsmanlike Conduct on SCATES, Joe NAV Unsportsmanlike Conduct on LANE, Rayuan , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.7%
Seth Henigan run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 3:1219% → 37%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
81.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the NAVY 22Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+5
80.8%
Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the NAVY 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+58
81.1%
Memphis Penalty, Face mask (58 yards) (DJ Bell) to the MEM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
77.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the MEM 5Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
76.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the MEM 2Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
63.3%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16MISSED FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 3:2571% → 70%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
70.6%
Seth Henigan run for 12 yds to the MEM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-8
73.2%
Seth Henigan sacked by Xavier McDonald for a loss of 8 yards to the MEM 39Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 18
OWN 39
+23
70.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 23 yds to the NAVY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
73.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 4 yds to the NAVY 34Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+2
74.5%
Sutton Smith run for 2 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
73.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:43
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+50
70.1%
Seth Morgan 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2536% → 35%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
64.2%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 6 yds to the NAVY 38Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-2
62.3%
Alex Tecza run for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 36Similar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
64.8%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
65.4%
Riley Riethman punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:3267% → 66%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
67.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 5 yds to the MEM 25Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+9
67.8%
Blake Watson run for 9 yds to the MEM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
67.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
67.6%
Seth Henigan run for no gain to the MEM 34Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+8
65.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 8 yds to the MEM 42Similar
Q3 1:46
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
66.2%
Reid Bauer punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2638% → 38%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
61.7%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the NAVY 30Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
61.8%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:46
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+7
63.9%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Daba Fofana for 7 yds to the NAVY 37Similar
Q3 0:20
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
61.9%
Riley Riethman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20TD
2 plays · 78 yds · 0:3871% → 89%
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
71.1%
Jevyon Ducker run for 1 yd to the NAVY 3Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
88.6%
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3218% → 16%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.6%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.9%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the NAVY 30Similar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
81.6%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the NAVY 33Similar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
83.6%
Riley Riethman punt for 62 yds, downed at the MEM 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:0386% → 85%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
86.0%
Jevyon Ducker run for 3 yds to the MEM 8Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+1
85.8%
Jevyon Ducker run for 1 yd to the MEM 9Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 6
OWN 9
-5
85.0%
Seth Henigan sacked by Will Harbour and Landon Robinson for a loss of 5 yards to the MEM 4Similar
Q4 10:47
4TH & 11
OWN 4
0
84.7%
Reid Bauer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the MEM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23FG
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:3820% → 26%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
80.1%
Blake Horvath run for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 46Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
81.3%
Brandon Chatman run for no gain to the MEM 46Similar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+29
82.2%
Blake Horvath run for 29 yds to the MEM 17 Blake Horvath fumbled, recovered by NAVY for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
77.8%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-2
79.8%
Blake Horvath run for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 19Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+1
83.2%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the MEM 18Similar
Q4 7:09
4TH & 11
OPP 18
+36
74.4%
Nathan Kirkwood 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:1081% → 86%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.4%
Seth Henigan run for 5 yds to the MEM 30Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+69
81.9%
Blake Watson run for 69 yds to the NAVY 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.5%
Seth Henigan run for 1 yd Seth Henigan fumbled, recovered by NAVY Justin ReedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 25FUMBLE
4 plays · 23 yds · 1:5625% → 24%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
74.9%
Blake Horvath run for 6 yds to the NAVY 26Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+9
73.5%
Blake Horvath run for 9 yds to the NAVY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
73.3%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 38Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+5
75.7%
Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the NAVY 43 Blake Horvath fumbled, recovered by MEM Jaylon AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 26INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 1:4589% → 90%
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
89.1%
Blake Watson run for no gain to the NAVY 43Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-1
88.9%
Blake Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 44Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 11
OPP 44
0
89.5%
Seth Henigan pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 27DOWNS
13 plays · 41 yds · 2:0925% → 18%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
75.0%
Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the MEM 48Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
74.7%
LAVATAI, Tai pass deep to the right incomplete intended for UMBARGER, Jayden broken up by RUBIN, Greg at the MEM15. PENALTY NAV Holding on MCMAHON, Connor MEM Pass Interference on BELL, DJ , Offsetting penalties [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+9
74.7%
Alex Tecza run for 9 yds to the MEM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
74.0%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
74.7%
LAVATAI, Tai pass short to the right incomplete intended for TECZA, Alex thrown to the MEM35. PENALTY MEM Pass Interference on MARTIN, Chandler enforced at the spot of the foul for 3 yards to the MEM36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
74.0%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the MEM 34Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+3
77.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the MEM 31Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+12
80.0%
Alex Tecza run for 12 yds to the MEM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
75.6%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+6
76.4%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Nathan Kent for 6 yds to the MEM 13Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 4
OPP 13
-2
79.0%
Tai Lavatai sacked by Josh Ellison for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 15Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+5
82.4%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 5 yds to the MEM 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
95.5%
[NHSG] Kneel down by HENIGAN, Seth at MEM6 (team loss of 4), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:22
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
+17.5
TD · Q3 9:08
Anton Hall Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Warren KICK)
-12.8
TD · Q2 0:23
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 7 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
+11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com