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USF

South Florida 50 at Memphis 59

MEM
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:34 · Tanner Gillis 44 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Pregame prior+24.4Home team on offense+8.0Garbage-time factor+2.5Score differential+3.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:18: Byrum Brown pass complete to Jayson Littlejohn for 2 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +9.5 pts (now 24%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:53: Byrum Brown pass complete to Jaden Alexis for 9 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +13.3 pts (now 36%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:53: Kelley Joiner run for 9 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +19.1 pts (now 48%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:44: Blake Watson run for 34 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK) — MEM win probability +14.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:54: Tevin Carter pass complete to Roc Taylor for 85 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK) — MEM win probability +12.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7USF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 0:35USF 4th & 20 at MEM 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−0.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    15.5%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:34MEM 4th & 8 at USF 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    82.5%−3.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 1:23USF 4th & 12 at USF 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:34MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00USF 4th & 2 at MEM 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    19.3%−1.4
    56% to make
    Punt
    18.5%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:05MEM 4th & 12 at USF 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−1.8
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    66.6%−2.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 0:32MEM 4th & 9 at MEM 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−3.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:43USF 4th & 19 at MEM 39, down 3
    Close callPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−2.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    26.7%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:37USF 4th & 10 at USF 47, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:13MEM 4th & 10 at midfield, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:11USF 4th & 1 at USF 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.5%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:06MEM 4th & 1 at USF 3, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.1%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    90.5%−1.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−5.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:11USF 4th & 2 at USF 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.6%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:00MEM 4th & 3 at USF 40, up 9
    Close callWent for it · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.8%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    95.3%
    34% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 8USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:53MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:23MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:35USF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 4:12MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:34USF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:54MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 5:10USF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 2:27MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q2 0:18USF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 11:53USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 6:53USF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q3 4:44MEM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 12:54MEM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 3:20MEM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  15. Q4 0:55USF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    4.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 2:0384% → 84%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
83.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+26
83.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
50
+17
83.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 17 yds to the USF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+29
83.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 29 yds to the USF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
83.5%
Seth Henigan run for 4 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 1:2017% → 17%
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
83.3%
Byrum Brown run for no gain to the USF 23Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
83.4%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 5 yds to the USF 28Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 5
OWN 28
-2
83.3%
Byrum Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 3 Byrum Brown fumbled, recovered by MEM Chandler Martin [NHSG] QB Keeper BROWN, Byrum rush up the middle for a loss of 2 yards, BROWN, Byrum fumbled at USF20 , recovered by MEM MARTIN, Chandler at the USF26, returned 23 yards to the USF3, End of Play, clock 11:27.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
84.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brendan Doyle for 3 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4816% → 18%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
84.0%
Sean Atkins run for 20 yds to the USF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
84.0%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 6 yds to the MEM 49Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+24
83.9%
Byrum Brown run for 24 yds to the MEM 25 for a 1ST down South Florida Penalty, personal foul (Yards) to the MEM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
83.8%
Byrum Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 27 Byrum Brown fumbled, recovered by USF [SG] BROWN, Byrum rush up the middle for a loss of 2 yards, BROWN, Byrum fumbled at MEM26 forced by EDMONDSON, Bryce, recovered by USF LOFTON, Mike at the MEM27, returned 0 yards to the MEM27, End of Play.Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+20
83.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Weston Wolff for 20 yds to the MEM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
83.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for no gain to the MEM 7Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
82.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 7 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 4:2383% → 86%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
83.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 18 yds to the MEM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
83.4%
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds to the MEM 46Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-2
83.4%
Blake Watson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 44Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+43
83.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 43 yds to the USF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
83.5%
Blake Watson run for 6 yds to the USF 7Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+5
83.5%
Seth Henigan run for 5 yds to the USF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
83.5%
Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the USF 2Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brendan Doyle for 2 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 3:3115% → 15%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
84.8%
Byrum Brown run for 4 yds to the USF 38Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+7
84.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 7 yds to the USF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
84.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 5
50
+15
84.5%
Memphis Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sutton Smith) to the MEM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
84.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Tramel Logan for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 38Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 12
OPP 38
0
84.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jaden Alexis for no gain to the MEM 38Similar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 12
OPP 38
+2
84.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jaden Alexis for 2 yds to the MEM 36Similar
Q1 4:06
4TH & 10
OPP 36
-5
85.0%
South Florida Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jaden Alexis) to the MEM 41Similar
Q1 4:06
4TH & 15
OPP 41
-5
85.1%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MEM 46Similar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 20
OPP 46
0
85.4%
Andrew Stokes punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:2686% → 87%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+25
86.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 25 yds to the MEM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
86.7%
Blake Watson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+4
86.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 4 yds to the MEM 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+14
86.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 14 yds to the USF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
86.8%
Blake Watson run for 12 yds to the USF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
86.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 2 yds to the USF 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
86.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
86.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:34
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+44
86.7%
Tanner Gillis 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:0014% → 20%
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
85.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 2 yds to the USF 28Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+14
85.5%
Sean Atkins run for 14 yds to the USF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
85.3%
Michel Dukes run for 6 yds to the USF 48Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+22
85.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 22 yds to the MEM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
84.6%
Michel Dukes run for 1 yd to the MEM 29Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+29
79.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 29 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4082% → 88%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
82.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 23 yds to the MEM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
83.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+13
82.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 13 yds to the USF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
83.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
83.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
82.5%
HENIGAN, Seth pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BLANKUMSEE, DeMeer thrown to the USF22. PENALTY USF Offsides on CHENEY, Rashad declined USF Pass Interference on STOKES, Jaelen enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the USF24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
83.2%
Seth Henigan run for 14 yds to the USF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
83.2%
Blake Watson run for no gain to the USF 10Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
87.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 10 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 1:3714% → 21%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
86.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Israel Carter for 7 yds to the USF 24Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+44
86.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 44 yds to the MEM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
85.2%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the MEM 30Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+29
85.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 29 yds to the MEM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4382% → 89%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
82.1%
Memphis Penalty, False Start (Roc Taylor) to the MEM 20Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+9
82.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 9 yds to the MEM 29Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+28
81.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 28 yds to the USF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
83.5%
Blake Watson run for 7 yds to the USF 36Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
83.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+18
83.1%
Seth Henigan run for 18 yds to the USF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
88.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 18 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:5713% → 13%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
87.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 13 yds to the USF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
87.0%
Kelley Joiner run for no gain to the USF 29Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
87.2%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 10
OWN 29
-2
87.1%
Kelley Joiner run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 27Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 12
OWN 27
0
87.3%
Andrew Stokes punt for 44 yds, downed at the MEM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:4987% → 85%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
87.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 13 yds to the MEM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
87.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
87.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 7 yds to the MEM 49Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
87.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 3
OWN 49
-5
86.9%
Memphis Penalty, False Start (Julian Barnett) to the MEM 44Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
86.7%
punt blocked by Matthew Hill blocked by Matthew Hill Punt by BAUER, Reid at the MEM44 is blocked by HILL, Matthew, recovered by USF SIMPSON, Timarcus at the MEM31, returned 22 yards to the MEM9 (SMITH, Austin), clock 00:34.Similar
Q2 0:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
85.0%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MEM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14TD
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0915% → 24%
Q2 0:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
0
85.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for no gain to the MEM 14Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+12
85.6%
Memphis Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Greg Rubin) to the MEM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
76.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jayson Littlejohn for 2 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.7%
[NHSG] Kneel down by HENIGAN, Seth at MEM22 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0719% → 36%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.1%
Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the USF 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
80.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 13 yds to the USF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
80.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 21 yds to the MEM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
79.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the MEM 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+2
79.1%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the MEM 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+4
79.3%
Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds to the MEM 30Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+6
80.1%
Byrum Brown run for 6 yds to the MEM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
77.7%
BROWN, Byrum pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BROWN, Khafre broken up by SMITH, Cameron at the MEM0. PENALTY MEM Pass Interference on SMITH, Cameron enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the MEM9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
64.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jaden Alexis for 9 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17FG
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:4073% → 75%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
73.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
72.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
50
+6
74.1%
Blake Watson run for 6 yds to the USF 44Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+16
74.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 16 yds to the USF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
75.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
75.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 10
OPP 28
-2
73.8%
Seth Henigan sacked by Michael Williams II for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 30Similar
Q3 9:05
4TH & 12
OPP 30
+48
74.5%
Tanner Gillis 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1226% → 48%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
74.0%
Byrum Brown run for 28 yds to the MEM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
70.9%
Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the MEM 45Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
70.9%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+21
71.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 21 yds to the MEM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
69.5%
BROWN, Byrum pass to the right incomplete intended for ALEXIS, Jaden thrown to the MEM10. PENALTY USF Holding on JENNINGS, Donovan declined USF Holding on BOWMAN, Derek enforced 10 yards from the MEM24 to the MEM34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 20
OPP 34
+6
70.5%
Byrum Brown run for 6 yds to the MEM 28Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 14
OPP 28
+19
71.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 19 yds to the MEM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
52.0%
Kelley Joiner run for 9 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 2:0261% → 78%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
61.3%
Blake Watson run for 1 yd to the MEM 41Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+15
59.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 15 yds to the USF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
62.9%
Demeer Blankumsee run for 10 yds to the USF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
77.7%
Blake Watson run for 34 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20INT
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:3428% → 31%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
71.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 19 yds to the MEM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
68.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 5 yds to the MEM 41Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+4
68.4%
Byrum Brown run for 4 yds to the MEM 37Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+5
68.7%
QB Keeper BROWN, Byrum rush to the right for a loss of 1 yard, BROWN, Byrum fumbled at MEM38 , recovered by USF BROWN, Byrum at the MEM38, returned 0 yards to the MEM38, End of Play. PENALTY MEM Offsides on ALLEN, Jaylon enforced 5 yards from the MEM37 to the MEM32 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-9
67.5%
Byrum Brown run for a loss of 9 yards to the MEM 41 Byrum Brown fumbled, recovered by USF Nay'Quan Wright [NHSG] QB Keeper BROWN, Byrum rush to the right for a loss of 9 yards, BROWN, Byrum fumbled at MEM37 , recovered by USF WRIGHT, Nay'Quan at the MEM41, returned 0 yards to the MEM41, End of Play.Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 19
OPP 41
+11
70.4%
Byrum Brown run for 11 yds to the MEM 30Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
69.5%
Byrum Brown pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3873% → 70%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
72.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
72.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 4 yds to the MEM 24Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-3
71.6%
Seth Henigan sacked by Tramel Logan for a loss of 3 yards to the MEM 21Similar
Q3 0:32
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
69.7%
Reid Bauer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 1:4929% → 26%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
71.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 11 yds to the USF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
68.7%
Kelley Joiner run for 8 yds to the MEM 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+15
67.6%
Memphis Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Roc Taylor) to the MEM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
66.6%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-4
66.7%
Byrum Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the MEM 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 34
0
71.5%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OPP 34
-5
74.0%
South Florida Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jaden Alexis) to the MEM 39Similar
Q4 13:43
4TH & 19
OPP 39
0
74.3%
Andrew Stokes punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23TD
2 plays · 88 yds · 0:4975% → 88%
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
75.1%
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds to the MEM 15Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+85
87.9%
Tevin Carter pass complete to Roc Taylor for 85 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 25 yds · 4:1712% → 9%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.9%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 27Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
87.6%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 29Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
87.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 7 yds to the USF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
86.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the USF 39Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+8
86.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 8 yds to the USF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
85.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 7
50
-10
85.2%
BROWN, Byrum pass short to the left complete for 6 yards to BROWN-STEPHENS, Michael caught at the MEM49 and advanced to the MEM44 (HUNTER JR., Derick), out of bounds. PENALTY USF Holding on JENNINGS, Donovan enforced 10 yards from the USF50 to the USF40 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 17
OWN 40
+3
87.7%
Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the USF 43Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+4
88.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 4 yds to the USF 47Similar
Q4 8:37
4TH & 10
OWN 47
+3
91.3%
Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2491% → 91%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
50
0
91.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 10
50
0
91.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 10
50
0
90.7%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:13
4TH & 10
50
0
90.5%
Reid Bauer punt for 47 yds, downed at the USF 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:029% → 7%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
91.0%
Michel Dukes run for 1 yd to the USF 4Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+2
91.2%
Michel Dukes run for 2 yds to the USF 6Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 7
OWN 6
+6
91.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 6 yds to the USF 12Similar
Q4 7:11
4TH & 1
OWN 12
0
92.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for no gain to the USF 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 27DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0593% → 92%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
92.8%
Blake Watson run for 2 yds to the USF 10Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
92.8%
Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the USF 10Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+7
92.5%
Tevin Carter pass complete to Koby Drake for 7 yds to the USF 3Similar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 1
OPP 3
-4
92.4%
Tevin Carter run for a loss of 4 yards to the USF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 28DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:557% → 6%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
92.8%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+9
92.8%
Byrum Brown run for 9 yds to the USF 16Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 1
OWN 16
-1
93.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 15Similar
Q4 4:11
4TH & 2
OWN 15
0
93.8%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 29TD
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:5194% → 98%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
93.6%
Brandon Thomas run for 7 yds to the USF 8Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+8
98.4%
Brandon Thomas run for 8 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 30TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 2:192% → 9%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
98.1%
Byrum Brown run for 6 yds to the USF 28Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+8
98.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michel Dukes for 8 yds to the USF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
98.0%
Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the USF 39Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+14
98.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jaden Alexis for 14 yds to the MEM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
97.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michel Dukes for 7 yds to the MEM 40Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+2
97.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michel Dukes for 2 yds to the MEM 38Similar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+30
97.7%
Michel Dukes run for 30 yds to the MEM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
91.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 8 yds for a TD (Byrum Brown pass to Michael Brown-Stephens for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 31END OF GAME
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:4997% → 97%
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
96.9%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the USF 44Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+3
97.1%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the USF 41Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+1
97.4%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the USF 40Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+8
97.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 8 yds to the USF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:53
Kelley Joiner run for 9 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
-19.1
TD · Q3 4:44
Blake Watson run for 34 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)
+14.8
TD · Q3 11:53
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jaden Alexis for 9 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
-13.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com