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USF

South Florida 44 at Navy 30

NAVY
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · [SG] Kneel down by USF at NAV19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:09: Nay'Quan Wright run for 10 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +7.9 pts (now 45%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:20: Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 88 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +8.2 pts (now 51%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:57: Anton Hall Jr. 2 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — NAVY win probability +9.1 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q3 4:22: Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 15 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +16.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:50: Tramel Logan 70 Yd Fumble Return (John Cannon Kick) — USF win probability +20.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 8 of 10USF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 13:32NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:44USF 4th & 1 at USF 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:32NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:41USF 4th & 10 at USF 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:19NAVY 4th & 8 at NAVY 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00USF 4th & 1 at USF 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.0%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00USF 4th & 4 at NAVY 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    34.6%−0.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    34.0%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:59NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:33NAVY 4th & 4 at USF 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    48.7%−0.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−6.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:57NAVY 4th & 2 at USF 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    45.4%−2.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−9.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:25USF 4th & 13 at USF 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−2.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:28USF 4th & 18 at USF 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−4.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:34NAVY 4th & 8 at USF 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−7.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:03USF 4th & 5 at USF 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:14NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 17, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%−2.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:54NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:58NAVY 4th & 19 at USF 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−3.0
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−5.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:05USF 4th & 1 at NAVY 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%−0.7
    75% to make
    Punt
    94.1%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4USF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:52NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:54NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:40USF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:09USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:20USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:57NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    56.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:22USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:50USF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:45USF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:28NAVY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2858% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
58.2%
Amin Hassan run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
58.2%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+7
58.2%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Camari Williams for 7 yds to the NAVY 31Similar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
58.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 45 yds , returns for no gain to the USF 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:4059% → 60%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
58.5%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the USF 17Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+7
58.5%
Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the USF 10Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+9
58.4%
Alex Tecza run for 9 yds to the USF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.9%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0841% → 40%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
59.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 3 yds to the USF 24Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+1
59.4%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the USF 25Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+5
59.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 5 yds to the USF 30Similar
Q1 10:44
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
59.9%
Byrum Brown run for no gain to the USF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
4 plays · 30 yds · 1:5060% → 64%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
60.4%
Brandon Chatman run for 6 yds to the USF 24Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 4
OPP 24
0
60.4%
Alex Tecza run for no gain to the USF 24Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+20
60.3%
Daba Fofana run for 20 yds to the USF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
63.8%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:1437% → 40%
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
62.6%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 5 yds to the USF 35Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+3
62.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the USF 38Similar
Q1 8:54
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+4
62.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 4 yds to the USF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
62.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 9 yds to the NAVY 49Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+15
62.1%
QB Keeper BROWN, Byrum rush to the left for no gain to the NAV49, End of Play. PENALTY NAV Personal Foul on RAMOS, Colin enforced 15 yards from the NAV49 to the NAV34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
62.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Weston Wolff for 3 yds to the NAVY 31Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+29
61.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 29 yds to the NAVY 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
61.9%
K'Wan Powell run for 1 yd to the NAVY 1Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0862% → 62%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.0%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 27Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
62.0%
Brandon Chatman run for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 25Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
61.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 8 yds to the NAVY 33Similar
Q1 3:32
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
62.3%
Riley Riethman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:5137% → 37%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
62.6%
K'Wan Powell run for 5 yds to the USF 27Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+3
62.3%
K'Wan Powell run for 3 yds to the USF 30Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+12
62.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to K'Wan Powell for 12 yds to the USF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
62.0%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
62.2%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
62.5%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:41
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
63.5%
Andrew Stokes punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 21Similar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
63.3%
Navy Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2263% → 63%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+5
63.2%
Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the NAVY 21Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
63.2%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+2
62.6%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the NAVY 23Similar
Q1 0:19
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
62.6%
Riley Riethman punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:1037% → 45%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
63.0%
Michel Dukes run for 1 yd to the USF 34Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+3
63.1%
Michel Dukes run for 3 yds to the USF 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+5
63.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 5 yds to the USF 42Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+1
63.4%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the USF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
62.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 19 yds to the NAVY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
61.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the NAVY 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+4
62.0%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
61.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for no gain to the NAVY 32Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+22
62.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 22 yds to the NAVY 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
55.0%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 10 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 3:1059% → 59%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
58.7%
Alex Tecza run for 9 yds to the NAVY 34Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
59.8%
Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the NAVY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
59.5%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 42Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+3
60.2%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the NAVY 45Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+1
59.8%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 46Similar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
59.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 40 yds , Sean Atkins returns for no gain to the USF 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11TD
2 plays · 88 yds · 0:3943% → 51%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
57.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for no gain to the USF 12Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+88
49.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 88 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12DOWNS
8 plays · 46 yds · 3:4749% → 47%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
49.3%
Brandon Chatman run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
50
+19
51.4%
Daba Fofana run for 19 yds to the USF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
52.6%
Navy Penalty, False Start (Cody Howard) to the USF 36Similar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+2
48.1%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the USF 34Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+1
48.9%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the USF 33Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 12
OPP 33
+8
47.5%
Blake Horvath run for 8 yds to the USF 25Similar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+1
46.8%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the USF 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:3056% → 56%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
44.5%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
45.0%
Kelley Joiner run for 6 yds to the USF 30Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 4
OWN 30
-8
43.8%
Byrum Brown sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the USF 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14TD
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:0650% → 57%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+16
49.6%
Alex Tecza run for 16 yds to the USF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
49.6%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the USF 5Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
49.6%
Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the USF 2Similar
Q2 2:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
47.4%
Blake Horvath run for no gain to the USF 2Similar
Q2 1:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
56.5%
Anton Hall Jr. 2 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 1:3247% → 48%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
52.9%
K'Wan Powell run for 4 yds to the USF 29Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
52.3%
K'Wan Powell run for 2 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
53.0%
Byrum Brown run for 5 yds to the USF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
51.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 7 yds to the USF 43Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
50.3%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-15
50.9%
Byrum Brown sacked by Luke Pirris for a loss of 15 yards to the USF 28Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 18
OWN 28
+5
52.8%
Navy Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the USF 33Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
51.8%
Andrew Stokes punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:2554% → 52%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
53.6%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
51.9%
Tai Lavatai run for 6 yds to the NAVY 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:3250% → 47%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
50.4%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-5
50.5%
Byrum Brown run for a loss of 5 yards to the USF 20Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 20
-5
52.0%
Byrum Brown sacked by Will Harbour for a loss of 5 yards to the USF 15Similar
Q3 13:28
4TH & 18
OWN 15
0
52.8%
Andrew Stokes punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18FG
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:5456% → 59%
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
55.5%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the USF 34Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+5
56.7%
Brandon Chatman run for 5 yds to the USF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
56.7%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the USF 25Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
54.8%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+3
53.2%
Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the USF 22Similar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 3
OPP 22
-5
51.1%
Navy Penalty, Delay Of Game (Blake Horvath) to the USF 27Similar
Q3 10:34
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+44
58.9%
Nathan Kirkwood 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:3145% → 46%
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
54.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the USF 28Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
54.1%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
55.7%
BROWN, Byrum pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ATKINS, Sean thrown to the NAV38. PENALTY NAV Pass Interference on PEELE, Dashaun enforced 15 yards to the USF43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
51.6%
Byrum Brown sacked by Donald Berniard Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 40Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+8
54.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 8 yds to the USF 48Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
51.5%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
53.6%
Andrew Stokes punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4957% → 55%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
56.8%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the NAVY 10Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+2
57.2%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the NAVY 12Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+5
55.7%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Anton Hall Jr. for 5 yds to the NAVY 17Similar
Q3 7:14
4TH & 1
OWN 17
0
55.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:5247% → 69%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
53.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 6 yds to the USF 39Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+3
51.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the USF 42Similar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+1
51.1%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the USF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
51.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jaden Alexis for 5 yds to the USF 48Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+35
50.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jaden Alexis for 35 yds to the NAVY 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
48.0%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the NAVY 16Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+1
47.4%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the NAVY 15Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+15
30.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 15 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22FUMBLE RETURN TD
8 plays · 47 yds · 4:3237% → 19%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
36.5%
Brandon Chatman run for 9 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+3
39.1%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
37.1%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the NAVY 35Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
36.9%
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 39Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+24
37.1%
Blake Horvath run for 24 yds to the USF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
41.4%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 8 yds to the USF 29Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+1
39.3%
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the USF 28Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+70
18.5%
Tramel Logan 70 Yd Fumble Return (John Cannon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5616% → 15%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
15.5%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 28Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
15.4%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
15.2%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:54
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
14.6%
Riley Riethman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24FUMBLE
1 play · 13 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
9.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Weston Wolff for 13 yds Weston Wolff fumbled, recovered by NAVY Xavier McDonaldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 25MISSED FG
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:4417% → 14%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+28
17.1%
Alex Tecza run for 28 yds to the USF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-3
18.2%
Brandon Chatman run for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 20Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 13
OPP 20
-3
17.6%
Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 23Similar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 16
OPP 23
-3
16.4%
Tai Lavatai sacked by Andrew Mata'afa and Rashad Cheney for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 26Similar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 19
OPP 26
+44
13.8%
Nathan Kirkwood 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:1393% → 99%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
7.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 9 yds to the USF 35Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+11
7.0%
K'Wan Powell run for 11 yds to the USF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
6.5%
K'Wan Powell run for 10 yds to the NAVY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
6.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 12 yds to the NAVY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
6.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 6 yds to the NAVY 26Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+4
6.1%
K'Wan Powell run for 4 yds to the NAVY 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
6.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 9 yds to the NAVY 13Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+2
6.1%
K'Wan Powell run for 2 yds to the NAVY 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
1.1%
Michel Dukes 11 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 27TD
1 play · 68 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
6.9%
Eli Heidenreich 68 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 28END OF GAME
16 plays · 56 yds · 7:2895% → 99%
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
5.2%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the USF 26Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
5.3%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
4.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 5 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q4 6:35
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+15
4.4%
STOKES, Andrew punt 37 yards to the NAV32, HASSAN, Amin returned 7 yards to the NAV39 (DENNIS, Kendall). PENALTY NAV Roughing the Kicker on ROGERS, Nazir enforced 15 yards from the USF31 to the USF46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
4.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 45Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+5
4.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 6
50
+10
4.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 10 yds to the NAVY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
4.0%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 6 yds to the NAVY 34Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+5
3.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 5 yds to the NAVY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
3.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 4 yds to the NAVY 25Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+1
1.4%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the NAVY 24Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+4
1.4%
K'Wan Powell run for 4 yds to the NAVY 20Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+2
1.6%
K'Wan Powell run for 2 yds to the NAVY 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
0.9%
[SG] Kneel down by USF at NAV19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:50
Tramel Logan 70 Yd Fumble Return (John Cannon Kick)
-20.7
TD · Q3 4:22
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 15 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
-16.6
TD · Q2 1:57
Anton Hall Jr. 2 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com