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RICE

Rice 29 at South Florida 42

USF
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreRICE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:59 · Conor Hunt punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Home team on offense+4.0Score differential+0.4Pregame prior−3.0Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:15: JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 2 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK) — RICE win probability +18.2 pts (now 60%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:54: Byrum Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +13.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:53: JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 80 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK) — RICE win probability +22.9 pts (now 54%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:07: Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 49 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +22.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:22: Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 8 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +13.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4RICE made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 12:11RICE 4th & 16 at RICE 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:22USF 4th & 8 at RICE 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    45.9%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:28RICE 4th & 1 at USF 3, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.4%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    50.3%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    47.6%−3.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:07USF 4th & 3 at RICE 22, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.2%−0.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−3.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:14RICE 4th & 12 at USF 12, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−5.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:46USF 4th & 15 at USF 15, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−3.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:10RICE 4th & 5 at USF 22, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    48.9%−5.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:25RICE 4th & 4 at USF 31, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.6%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    42.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−2.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:59RICE 4th & 5 at RICE 40, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:35USF 4th & 13 at RICE 44, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−2.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    46.3%−2.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:32RICE 4th & 8 at USF 38, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.2%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    53.0%−1.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    52.9%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:00RICE 4th & 7 at RICE 28, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−1.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:49RICE 4th & 4 at RICE 31, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:45RICE 4th & 4 at USF 46, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:45RICE 4th & 2 at USF 27, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5RICE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 2:28RICE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:35USF Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:15RICE Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:54USF Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:53RICE Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:07USF Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:22USF Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:52USF Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    97.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:46RICE Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    3.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICEDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:4357% → 56%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
43.1%
Juma Otoviano run for 6 yds to the RICE 28Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
43.1%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+27
43.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Braylen Walker for 27 yds to the USF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
43.1%
Juma Otoviano run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 46Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
43.1%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 11
OPP 46
-5
43.1%
JT Daniels sacked by Lloyd Summerall for a loss of 5 yards to the RICE 49Similar
Q1 12:11
4TH & 16
OWN 49
0
44.0%
Conor Hunt punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 4:4944% → 46%
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
43.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 5 yds to the USF 29Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+2
44.0%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
43.8%
BROWN, Byrum pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BROWN-STEPHENS, Michael thrown to the RU40. PENALTY RU Offsides on FLOYD, Izeya declined RU Pass Interference on FRESCH, Sean enforced 15 yards to the USF46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
44.2%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the USF 47Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+10
44.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 10 yds to the RICE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
44.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 14 yds to the RICE 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
44.4%
BROWN, Byrum pass short to the right incomplete intended for WOLFF, Weston thrown to the RU25. PENALTY RU Holding on TAYLOR, Gabriel USF Holding on LOFTON, Mike , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
44.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for a loss of 3 yards to the RICE 32Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 13
OPP 32
-4
44.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 4 yards to the RICE 36Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 17
OPP 36
+20
44.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 20 yds to the RICE 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
44.4%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the RICE 14Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 8
OPP 14
-3
44.4%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 3 yards to the RICE 17Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 11
OPP 17
+8
44.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Weston Wolff for 8 yds to the RICE 9Similar
Q1 12:11
4TH & 3
OPP 9
-5
44.1%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the RICE 14Similar
Q1 7:22
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+31
46.2%
John Cannon 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5454% → 56%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
46.3%
Rice Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the RICE 20Similar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
46.3%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+12
46.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Rawson MacNeill for 12 yds to the RICE 32Similar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
46.2%
Dean Connors run for 4 yds to the RICE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
46.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Juma Otoviano for 5 yds to the RICE 41Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+47
45.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 47 yds to the USF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
45.1%
Dean Connors run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 13Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+9
45.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 9 yds to the USF 4Similar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+1
46.8%
Daelen Alexander run for 1 yd to the USF 3Similar
Q1 2:28
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
43.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Daelen Alexander for 3 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:2145% → 48%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
44.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 6 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
45.2%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the USF 32Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
44.3%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USF 27Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+29
43.9%
Byrum Brown run for 29 yds to the RICE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
46.0%
WRIGHT, Nay'Quan rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the RU43 (CONTI, Chris;COCO, Coleman). PENALTY Before the snap, RU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the RU44 to the RU39. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 5
OPP 39
+10
46.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 10 yds to the RICE 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
47.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 7 yds to the RICE 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 22
0
47.3%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 22
0
46.4%
Byrum Brown run for no gain to the RICE 22Similar
Q2 14:07
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+40
47.6%
John Cannon 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5MISSED FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 6:4854% → 55%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
45.6%
Daelen Alexander run for a loss of 3 yards to the RICE 24Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+24
45.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 24 yds to the RICE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
44.4%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-4
44.5%
Dean Connors run for a loss of 4 yards to the RICE 44Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 14
OWN 44
+31
45.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 31 yds to the USF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
42.8%
Quinton Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 27Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+6
43.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Juma Otoviano for 6 yds to the USF 21Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+18
43.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Rawson MacNeill for 18 yds to the USF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
42.8%
Daelen Alexander run for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 6Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-11
42.8%
JT Daniels sacked by Jonathan Ross for a loss of 11 yards to the USF 17Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+5
44.6%
Dean Connors run for 5 yds to the USF 12Similar
Q2 7:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
44.7%
Tim Horn 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2846% → 45%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
46.3%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
46.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 2 yds to the USF 22Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-7
45.3%
Byrum Brown sacked by Chris Conti and De'Braylon Carroll for a loss of 7 yards to the USF 15Similar
Q2 5:46
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
44.8%
Andrew Stokes punt for 33 yds, downed at the USF 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7MISSED FG
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:3658% → 56%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+21
42.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Rawson MacNeill for 21 yds to the USF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
41.3%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+5
41.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Quinton Jackson for 5 yds to the USF 22Similar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
42.3%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+40
44.5%
Tim Horn 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:3547% → 64%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
46.8%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-10
46.6%
BROWN, Byrum pass to the right complete for 15 yards to ATKINS, Sean caught at the USF37 and advanced to the USF37 (CONTI, Chris;ARKANSAS, DJ). PENALTY USF Holding on LOFTON, Mike enforced 10 yards from the USF22 to the USF12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 20
OWN 12
+53
46.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 53 yds to the RICE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
51.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Weston Wolff for 4 yds to the RICE 31Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+14
51.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Weston Wolff for 14 yds to the RICE 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-9
51.2%
Byrum Brown sacked by Plae Wyatt for a loss of 9 yards to the RICE 26Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 19
OPP 26
+26
63.5%
K'Wan Powell run for 26 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 1:1440% → 60%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
60.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 6 yds to the RICE 36Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
58.9%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+7
60.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Rawson MacNeill for 7 yds to the RICE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
59.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 20 yds to the USF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
56.6%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
56.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Rawson MacNeill for 6 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
56.5%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+17
58.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 17 yds to the USF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
55.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 12 yds to the USF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 2 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
44.0%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the USF 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0647% → 66%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+51
47.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 51 yds to the RICE 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+19
52.2%
Byrum Brown run for 19 yds to the RICE 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
52.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the RICE 1Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.7%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:5540% → 38%
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
60.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 7 yds to the RICE 32Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
57.9%
Dean Connors run for a loss of 2 yards to the RICE 30Similar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
60.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 5 yds to the RICE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
59.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Juma Otoviano for 5 yds to the RICE 40Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
57.3%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
58.7%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:59
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
62.1%
Conor Hunt punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13FUMBLE
10 plays · 77 yds · 2:5564% → 69%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
64.2%
Byrum Brown run for 5 yds to the USF 28Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+2
64.4%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the USF 30Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+5
63.4%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 5 yds to the USF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
64.5%
Byrum Brown sacked by De'Braylon Carroll and Myron Morrison for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 34Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+59
64.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 59 yds Khafre Brown fumbled, recovered by USF for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
67.4%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
67.4%
Byrum Brown run for 4 yds to the RICE 3Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
66.3%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
64.6%
BROWN, Byrum pass short to the right incomplete intended for SIMMONS, Naiem thrown to the RU0. PENALTY RU Pass Interference on JEAN, Jonathan enforced 1 yards to the RU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
69.4%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds Nay'Quan Wright fumbled, recovered by RICE Marcus WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
46.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 80 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:1848% → 47%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
48.1%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (Kelley Joiner) to the USF 20Similar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-3
47.8%
Kelley Joiner run for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 17Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+42
47.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 42 yds to the RICE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
52.7%
K'Wan Powell run for 2 yds to the RICE 39Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
52.7%
Byrum Brown run for no gain to the RICE 39Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
51.8%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:53
4TH & 8
OPP 39
-5
49.4%
South Florida Penalty, Delay Of Game (Khafre Brown) to the RICE 44Similar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 13
OPP 44
0
46.7%
Andrew Stokes punt for 39 yds, downed at the RICE 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:0353% → 54%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
47.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 2 yds to the RICE 7Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+2
48.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Jack Bradley for 2 yds to the RICE 9Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 6
OWN 9
+51
49.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 51 yds to the USF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
43.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 2 yds to the USF 38Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
43.1%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
43.6%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 8
OPP 38
-7
46.4%
JT Daniels sacked by DJ Gordon IV and Tramel Logan for a loss of 7 yards to the USF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17TD
2 plays · 55 yds · 0:2554% → 77%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
53.9%
K'Wan Powell run for 6 yds to the RICE 49Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+49
76.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 49 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:0729% → 26%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.9%
Juma Otoviano run for 5 yds to the RICE 30Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
69.9%
Juma Otoviano run for 2 yds to the RICE 32Similar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-4
70.8%
AJ Padgett sacked by DJ Gordon IV for a loss of 4 yards to the RICE 28Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
74.1%
Conor Hunt punt for 34 yds , returns for no gain to the USF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3876% → 93%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
76.3%
K'Wan Powell run for 9 yds to the USF 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
77.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 4 yds to the USF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+52
78.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 52 yds to the RICE 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
79.8%
K'Wan Powell run for 2 yds to the RICE 8Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
93.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 8 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3310% → 8%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
90.2%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 6 yds to the RICE 31Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
89.6%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for no gain to the RICE 31Similar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
89.8%
AJ Padgett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:49
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
92.3%
Conor Hunt punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21TD
10 plays · 57 yds · 2:5794% → 99%
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
93.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 11 yds to the RICE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
93.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 7 yds to the RICE 39Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+3
93.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the RICE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
93.7%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+21
93.6%
Byrum Brown run for 21 yds to the RICE 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
93.8%
BROWN, Byrum pass to the right incomplete intended for ALEXIS, Jaden thrown to the RU0. PENALTY Before the snap, RU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the RU15 to the RU10. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 5
OPP 10
-1
93.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the RICE 11Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+5
93.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 5 yds to the RICE 6Similar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+5
93.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 5 yds to the RICE 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.9%
Nay'Quan Wright 1 Yd Run (Sean Atkins Pass to Byrum Brown for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 22TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 4:591% → 4%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+27
98.7%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 27 yds to the RICE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
98.6%
AJ Padgett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
98.6%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Dean Connors for 6 yds to the USF 46Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
98.7%
AJ Padgett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 4
OPP 46
+11
98.7%
AJ Padgett run for 11 yds to the USF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
98.5%
Luke McCaffrey run for 7 yds to the USF 28Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 3
OPP 28
-10
98.4%
PADGETT, AJ pass to the right incomplete intended for POWELL, Ethan broken up by CURRY, Jayden at the USF16. PENALTY RU Holding on ONIANWA, Ethan enforced 10 yards from the USF28 to the USF38 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+8
98.6%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Quinton Jackson for 8 yds to the USF 30Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+3
98.6%
AJ Padgett run for 3 yds to the USF 27Similar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+3
98.6%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Dean Connors for 3 yds to the USF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
98.4%
PADGETT, AJ pass to the right incomplete intended for MCCAFFREY, Luke thrown to the USF10. PENALTY USF Pass Interference on SANDERS, Jameel enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the USF9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
96.2%
Rawson MacNeill 9 Yd pass from AJ Padgett (AJ Padgett Pass to Luke McCaffrey for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23END OF GAME
11 plays · 32 yds · 3:4098% → 99%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
97.6%
K'Wan Powell run for 2 yds to the RICE 43Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+5
97.7%
K'Wan Powell run for 5 yds to the RICE 38Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+18
98.3%
Byrum Brown run for 18 yds to the RICE 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
98.4%
K'Wan Powell run for 1 yd to the RICE 19Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+2
98.4%
K'Wan Powell run for 2 yds to the RICE 17Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+8
98.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Gunnar Greenwald for 8 yds to the RICE 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
98.4%
Kneel down by BROWN, Byrum at RU11 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
98.9%
Kneel down by BROWN, Byrum at RU13 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:53
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 80 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
-22.9
TD · Q3 2:07
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 49 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
+22.8
TD · Q2 0:15
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 2 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
-18.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com