Try the model
FAU

Florida Atlantic 56 at South Florida 14

USF
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreFAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:58 · Andrew Stokes punt for 34 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.5+29.80−29.8−59.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Home team on offense−15.1Score differential−7.8Garbage-time factor−4.8Pregame prior+3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:33: Nay'Quan Wright run for 8 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +12.8 pts (now 51%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:37: Larry McCammon 3 Yd Run (Logan Lupo Kick) — FAU win probability +12.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:12: Byrum Brown pass complete to Gunnar Greenwald for 2 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +20.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:41: Michael Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK) — FAU win probability +12.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:50: Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 17 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK) — FAU win probability +14.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 5 of 10FAU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 14:35USF 4th & 10 at USF 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:24USF 4th & 1 at USF 13, down 7
    Close callPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:47FAU 4th & 7 at FAU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:00USF 4th & 3 at FAU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    52.9%−1.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    52.3%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:45USF 4th & 20 at FAU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−1.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    51.4%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:48USF 4th & 6 at FAU 31, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.9%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:29FAU 4th & 10 at FAU 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:58USF 4th & 5 at USF 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:13FAU 4th & 2 at USF 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    74.3%−2.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    74.5%−2.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:14USF 4th & 16 at USF 19, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−2.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:17USF 4th & 15 at FAU 27, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:48USF 4th & 19 at FAU 30, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−0.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:43FAU 4th & 3 at USF 29, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:51USF 4th & 16 at FAU 49, down 42
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2FAU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 11:43FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:59FAU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:33USF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:37FAU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:12USF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:41FAU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:50FAU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:14FAU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:55FAU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:44FAU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2558% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.1%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
58.1%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
58.1%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:35
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
58.0%
Andrew Stokes punt for 42 yds, downed at the FAU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:5242% → 44%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
58.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 9 yds to the FAU 42Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+3
58.0%
Larry McCammon run for 3 yds to the FAU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
57.9%
Larry McCammon run for 21 yds to the USF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+30
57.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 30 yds to the USF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
57.8%
Larry McCammon run for 1 yd to the USF 3Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
57.8%
Larry McCammon run for 1 yd to the USF 2Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
56.5%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Zeke Moore for 2 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3FUMBLE
7 plays · 59 yds · 1:5157% → 57%
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
56.9%
Sean Atkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 22Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+32
56.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 32 yds to the FAU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
57.3%
Byrum Brown run for 8 yds to the FAU 38Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+4
57.3%
Byrum Brown run for 4 yds to the FAU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
57.4%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the FAU 32Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
57.4%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+16
56.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jaden Alexis for 16 yds Jaden Alexis fumbled, recovered by FAU Amari WansleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4INT
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:5244% → 46%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+32
56.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Tony Johnson for 32 yds to the FAU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
55.7%
Larry McCammon run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 8
50
0
55.6%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 8
50
+14
55.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 14 yds to the USF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
55.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Tony Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the USF 40Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+1
55.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 1 yd to the USF 39Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 13
OPP 39
0
54.2%
Daniel Richardson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3655% → 53%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
54.6%
K'Wan Powell run for no gain to the USF 4Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+6
54.6%
Byrum Brown run for 6 yds to the USF 10Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 4
OWN 10
+3
53.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 3 yds to the USF 13Similar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 1
OWN 13
0
53.1%
Andrew Stokes punt for 62 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:3746% → 48%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.8%
Larry McCammon run for no gain to the FAU 25Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
54.0%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
54.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for no gain to the FAU 25Similar
Q1 3:50
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+15
53.9%
LUPO, Logan punt 54 yards to the USF21, returned by ATKINS, Sean., out of bounds, clock 03:50. PENALTY USF Leaping on KELLY, Tyree enforced 15 yards from the FAU25 to the FAU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
52.2%
Larry McCammon run for 3 yds to the FAU 43Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-4
52.2%
Larry McCammon run for a loss of 4 yards to the FAU 39Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+4
52.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Tony Johnson for 4 yds to the FAU 43Similar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
51.9%
Logan Lupo punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:0252% → 51%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+38
52.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 38 yds to the FAU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
54.1%
Byrum Brown run for 5 yds to the FAU 37Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+3
54.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jaden Alexis for 3 yds to the FAU 34Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 2
OPP 34
-1
54.1%
K'Wan Powell run for a loss of 1 yard to the FAU 35Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+4
52.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Weston Wolff for 4 yds to the FAU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
54.2%
Byrum Brown sacked by Jaylen Wester for a loss of 5 yards to the FAU 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 36
0
52.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for no gain to the FAU 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 36
0
52.3%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 15
OPP 36
-5
51.4%
South Florida Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the FAU 41Similar
Q2 13:45
4TH & 20
OPP 41
0
50.7%
Andrew Stokes punt for 27 yds, fair catch by LaJohntay Wester at the FAU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 86 yds · 2:4649% → 61%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
50.8%
Je'Quan Burton run for 15 yds to the FAU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+18
49.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 18 yds to the FAU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
48.7%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+21
48.8%
Larry McCammon run for 21 yds to the USF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
48.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Jymetre Hester for 9 yds to the USF 23Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+14
48.0%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Larry McCammon for 14 yds to the USF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
39.4%
Michael Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2637% → 51%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
36.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 24Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+26
35.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
50
+27
37.5%
Sean Atkins pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 27 yds to the FAU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
37.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 15 yds to the FAU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
50.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 8 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5652% → 66%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
48.0%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 8 yds to the FAU 33Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
47.2%
Kobe Lewis run for 5 yds to the FAU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
46.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Tony Johnson for 22 yds to the USF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
46.0%
Kobe Lewis run for 5 yds to the USF 35Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+21
45.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 21 yds to the USF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
45.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 8 yds to the USF 6Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 2
OPP 6
-3
45.6%
Kobe Lewis run for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 9Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+6
46.0%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 6 yds to the USF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
34.0%
Larry McCammon 3 Yd Run (Logan Lupo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11MISSED FG
6 plays · 44 yds · 1:4930% → 30%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
29.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 24Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+41
29.6%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 41 yds to the FAU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
32.0%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the FAU 31Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
32.0%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
31.4%
Byrum Brown run for no gain to the FAU 31Similar
Q2 3:48
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+49
30.0%
John Cannon 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1966% → 66%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
34.2%
Larry McCammon run for a loss of 2 yards to the FAU 29Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+2
34.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Tony Johnson for 2 yds to the FAU 31Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
34.9%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:29
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
34.2%
Logan Lupo punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 2:1727% → 50%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
27.2%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
27.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for no gain to the USF 24Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+15
26.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 15 yds to the USF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
28.6%
Florida Atlantic Penalty, Targeting on MCCLENDON, Darius enforced (Darius McClendon) to the FAU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
29.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 14 yds to the FAU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
29.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 9 yds to the FAU 12Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+10
29.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 10 yds to the FAU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
30.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the FAU 1Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
29.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the FAU 2Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
49.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Gunnar Greenwald for 2 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:0862% → 62%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
38.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Zeke Moore for 4 yds to the FAU 45Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+14
37.9%
Larry McCammon run for 14 yds to the USF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 15TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 2:1460% → 74%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
40.5%
Larry McCammon run for 8 yds to the FAU 40Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+47
39.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Tony Johnson for 47 yds to the USF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
38.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Tony Johnson for 5 yds to the USF 8Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+3
38.3%
Michael Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the USF 5Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
26.1%
Michael Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4329% → 27%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
29.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the USF 26Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
29.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the USF 30Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
29.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for no gain to the USF 30Similar
Q3 10:58
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
27.2%
Andrew Stokes punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:0875% → 92%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
25.3%
Larry McCammon run for 2 yds to the FAU 38Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
24.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+15
25.0%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 15 yds to the USF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
24.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 5 yds to the USF 42Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+2
20.6%
Larry McCammon run for 2 yds to the USF 40Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+1
20.9%
Larry McCammon run for 1 yd to the USF 39Similar
Q3 9:13
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+22
22.7%
Daniel Richardson run for 22 yds to the USF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
7.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 17 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18PUNT TD
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3612% → 2%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
11.9%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (Zane Herring) to the USF 20Similar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
11.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 1 yd to the USF 21Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-2
11.7%
Jaden Alexis run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 19Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
11.7%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+67
2.0%
LaJohntay Wester 67 Yd Punt Return (Logan Lupo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19DOWNS
12 plays · 39 yds · 3:572% → 1%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.2%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
2.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 6 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
2.1%
Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the USF 34Similar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+15
2.1%
Florida Atlantic Penalty, Targeting on WESTER, Jaylen enforced (LaJohntay Wester) to the FAU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
2.4%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 7 yds to the FAU 42Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+10
2.3%
Michel Dukes run for 10 yds to the FAU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
2.4%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Tyree Kelly for 10 yds to the FAU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
2.4%
Michel Dukes run for 1 yd to the FAU 21Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 9
OPP 21
-10
2.3%
ARCHIE, Bryce scrambles to the right for a gain of 11 yards to the FAU10 (MUNGIN, Romain). PENALTY USF Holding on LOFTON, Mike enforced 10 yards from the FAU21 to the FAU31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 19
OPP 31
-5
2.3%
Bryce Archie sacked by Decarius Hawthorne for a loss of 5 yards to the FAU 36Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 24
OPP 36
+9
2.2%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Jaden Alexis for 9 yds to the FAU 27Similar
Q3 2:17
4TH & 15
OPP 27
-9
1.1%
Bryce Archie sacked by Desmond Tisdol for a loss of 9 yards to the FAU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:2298% → 99%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
2.3%
Larry McCammon run for no gain to the FAU 36Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
2.3%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+34
2.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Devin Price for 34 yds to the USF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
2.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to BJ Alexander for 8 yds to the USF 22Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 22
-1
0.8%
Larry McCammon run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 23Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+23
0.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Tony Johnson for 23 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:071% → 1%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
0.5%
Byrum Brown run for 20 yds to the USF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+34
0.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 34 yds to the FAU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
0.6%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the FAU 22Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 11
OPP 22
-8
0.6%
Byrum Brown sacked by Decarius Hawthorne and Morven Joseph for a loss of 8 yards to the FAU 30Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 19
OPP 30
0
0.5%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:48
4TH & 19
OPP 30
0
0.4%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
0.7%
Florida Atlantic Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FAU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 6:0499% → 100%
Q4 12:48
1ST & 15
OWN 25
0
0.7%
Kobe Lewis run for no gain to the FAU 25Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+4
0.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 4 yds to the FAU 29Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+26
0.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Devin Price for 26 yds to the USF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
0.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the USF 44Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+4
0.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 4 yds to the USF 40Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+6
0.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 6 yds to the USF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-4
0.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Jymetre Hester for a loss of 4 yards to the USF 38Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+22
0.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 22 yds to the USF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
0.2%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the USF 12Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+12
0.2%
Kobe Lewis run for 12 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 29 yds · 3:01100% → 100%
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
0.2%
Kobe Lewis run for 20 yds to the USF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
0.2%
Kobe Lewis run for a loss of 4 yards to the USF 40Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+5
0.2%
Keyvon Walker run for 5 yds to the USF 35Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+6
0.2%
Keyvon Walker run for 6 yds to the USF 29Similar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+2
0.2%
Keyvon Walker run for 2 yds to the USF 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
0.1%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 18 yds to the USF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
0.1%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
0.1%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+12
0.1%
Bryce Archie run for 12 yds to the FAU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
0.1%
K'Wan Powell run for 1 yd to the FAU 42Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 9
OPP 42
-7
0.1%
Bryce Archie sacked by Jude Okolo for a loss of 7 yards to the FAU 49Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 16
OPP 49
0
0.1%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 16
OPP 49
-11
0.0%
Bryce Archie sacked by Marlon Krakue for a loss of 11 yards to the USF 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -7 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
0.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by RICHARDSON, Daniel at USF43 (team loss of 3).Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 13
OPP 43
0
0.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by RICHARDSON, Daniel at USF45 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 45
0
0.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by RICHARDSON, Daniel at USF47 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:12
Byrum Brown pass complete to Gunnar Greenwald for 2 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
+20.8
TD · Q3 7:50
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 17 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)
-14.9
TD · Q2 9:33
Nay'Quan Wright run for 8 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
+12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com