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MONM

Monmouth 20 at Florida Atlantic 42

FAU
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadMONM aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreMONM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:26 · Luke Schabel punt for 58 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Pregame prior+42.0Home team on offense+3.1Score differential+1.7Garbage-time factor+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:48: Casey Thompson pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 8 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK) — FAU win probability +3.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:25: Assanti Kearney 27 Yd pass from Marquez McCray (Michael Calton Kick) — MONM win probability +3.7 pts (now 7%) (top driver: MONM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:59: Casey Thompson pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 35 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK) — FAU win probability +3.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:30: Casey Thompson pass complete to Tony Johnson for 72 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK) — FAU win probability +1.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:19: Dre Tucker 16 Yd pass from Marquez McCray (Michael Calton PAT failed) — MONM win probability +0.8 pts (now 1%) (top driver: MONM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6MONM made the numbers' call on 8 of 13
  1. Q1 12:58MONM 4th & 3 at MONM 30, down 21
    Close callPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:26MONM 4th & 5 at MONM 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:46MONM 4th & 1 at MONM 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.7%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:05MONM 4th & 11 at MONM 24, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:25FAU 4th & 23 at MONM 41, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:17MONM 4th & 12 at MONM 4, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:41MONM 4th & 6 at MONM 47, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:33FAU 4th & 1 at MONM 38, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    96.5%−0.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:13MONM 4th & 3 at MONM 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:25MONM 4th & 6 at FAU 27, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    3.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:35FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 26, up 14
    Close callPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:30MONM 4th & 8 at MONM 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:25MONM 4th & 11 at MONM 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:42MONM 4th & 1 at FAU 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.6
    60% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−2.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:39MONM 4th & 4 at MONM 36, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:29FAU 4th & 7 at FAU 34, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:19FAU 4th & 5 at FAU 35, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:41MONM 4th & 15 at midfield, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:10FAU 4th & 3 at MONM 43, up 22
    Close callWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%
    28% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MONM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:46FAU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:48FAU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:25MONM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:59FAU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:30FAU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:19MONM Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FAUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 2:4094% → 94%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+27
93.7%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Lajohntay Wester for 27 yds to the FAU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
93.8%
Larry McCammon run for 9 yds to the MONM 43Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+6
93.8%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Lajohntay Wester for 6 yds to the MONM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
93.8%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Tony Johnson for no gain to the MONM 37Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+26
93.8%
Casey Thompson run for 14 yds to the MONM 23 for a 1ST down Monmouth Penalty, Targeting (Thomas Joe-Kamara) to the MONM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
93.8%
Casey Thompson run for 2 yds to the MONM 9Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
94.4%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Tony Johnson for 9 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2TD
2 plays · 29 yds · 0:2994% → 97%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+21
93.7%
Lajohntay Wester run for 21 yds to the MONM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
96.9%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 8 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:576% → 6%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
94.4%
Jaden Shirden run for 1 yd to the MONM 24Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+6
94.4%
Jaden Shirden run for 6 yds to the MONM 30Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
94.4%
Jaden Shirden run for no gain to the MONM 30Similar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
94.5%
Luke Schabel punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Lajohntay Wester at the FAU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:3095% → 95%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
94.5%
Larry McCammon run for 2 yds to the FAU 22Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+55
94.5%
Larry McCammon run for 40 yds to the MONM 38 for a 1ST down Monmouth Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jake Brown) to the MONM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
94.6%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 13 yds to the MONM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
94.6%
Larry McCammon run for 4 yds to the MONM 6Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
94.6%
Larry McCammon run for 6 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 5Uncategorized
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:496% → 5%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
94.4%
Jaden Shirden run for 6 yds to the MONM 22Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+1
94.4%
Jaden Shirden run for 1 yd to the MONM 23Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 3
OWN 23
0
94.4%
Monmouth Penalty, Personal Foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 5
OWN 21
0
94.8%
Luke Schabel punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 6TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:535% → 5%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
95.1%
Marquez Mccray pass complete to Dymere Miller for 9 yds to the MONM 34Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
94.9%
Marquez Mccray pass complete to Sean Fleming for 5 yds to the MONM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
95.0%
Jaden Shirden run for 1 yd to the MONM 40Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
95.0%
Marquez Mccray pass incomplete to Dymere MillerSimilar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+8
95.0%
Marquez Mccray run for 8 yds to the MONM 48Similar
Q1 6:46
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+4
94.9%
Marquez Mccray pass complete to Dymere Miller for 4 yds to the FAU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
94.9%
Marquez Mccray pass complete to Assanti Kearney for 9 yds to the FAU 39Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 1
OPP 39
0
94.7%
Dre Tucker pass incomplete to Marquez MccraySimilar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+22
94.7%
Jaden Shirden run for 22 yds to the FAU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
94.7%
Jaden Shirden run for 2 yds to the FAU 15Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+3
94.7%
Marquez Mccray run for 3 yds to the FAU 12Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+10
94.8%
Marquez Mccray pass incomplete to Dymere Miller for a 1ST down Florida Atlantic Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Daedae Hill) to the FAU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.2%
Sone Ntoh 2 Yd Run (Michael Calton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3995% → 96%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.3%
Larry McCammon run for 6 yds to the FAU 31Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
95.4%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Lajohntay WesterSimilar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
95.2%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Larry McCammon for 6 yds to the FAU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
95.4%
Larry McCammon run for 7 yds to the FAU 44Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+3
95.8%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Larry McCammon for 3 yds to the FAU 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+55
95.6%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Larry McCammon for 55 yds to the MONM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
95.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Thompson,Casey pass incomplete short middle to Burton,Je'Quan PENALTY MON Pass Interference (Smith,Davis) 2 yards from MON04 to MON02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.1%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Lajohntay Wester for 2 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:094% → 4%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
95.8%
PENALTY MON False Start (Mason,Kyrik) 5 yards from MON25 to MON20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
95.9%
Marquez Mccray pass incomplete to Assanti KearneySimilar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
95.9%
Marquez Mccray pass incomplete to Jaden ShirdenSimilar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+4
95.9%
Jaden Shirden run for 4 yds to the MONM 24Similar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
96.0%
Luke Schabel punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:4096% → 97%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 7
OWN 39
+3
96.2%
Zuberi Mobley run for 3 yds to the FAU 42Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+7
96.2%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Zuberi Mobley for 7 yds to the FAU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
96.2%
Zuberi Mobley run for 11 yds to the MONM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
96.2%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Jymetre Hester for 12 yds to the MONM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
96.2%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Lajohntay Wester for 1 yd to the MONM 27Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
96.2%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Kahlil BrantleySimilar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 9
OPP 27
-15
96.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Thompson,Casey pass complete short middle to Burton,Je'Quan for 17 yards to the MON10 (Moran,Ryan) PENALTY FAU Pass Interference (Brantley,Kahlil) 15 yards from MON27 to MON42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 24
OPP 42
+1
96.0%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Larry McCammon for 1 yd to the MONM 41Similar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 23
OPP 41
0
96.5%
Logan Lupo punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Eddie Morales III at the MONM 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 10Uncategorized
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:084% → 4%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 9
OWN 7
+2
96.4%
Jaden Shirden run for 2 yds to the MONM 5Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 11
OWN 5
0
96.5%
Jaden Shirden run for no gain to the MONM 5Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 11
OWN 5
+2
96.5%
Jaden Shirden run for 2 yds to the MONM 7Similar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 9
OWN 7
-3
96.5%
PENALTY MON Delay Of Game 3 yards from MON07 to MON04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 12
OWN 4
0
96.5%
Luke Schabel punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 11DOWNS
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:074% → 3%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.3%
Marquez Mccray pass incomplete to Dymere MillerSimilar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.4%
Marquez Mccray pass complete to Dymere Miller for 5 yds to the MONM 30Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
96.3%
Marquez Mccray pass complete to Dymere Miller for 13 yds to the MONM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
96.2%
Marquez Mccray pass incomplete to Dymere MillerSimilar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
96.2%
Marquez Mccray pass complete to TJ Speight for 5 yds to the MONM 48Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 5
OWN 48
-5
96.1%
PENALTY MON False Start (Hall,Jordan) 5 yards from MON48 to MON43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+4
96.3%
Marquez Mccray pass complete to TJ Speight for 4 yds to the MONM 47Similar
Q2 3:41
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
96.6%
Marquez Mccray pass incomplete to Assanti KearneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0897% → 97%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
97.3%
Larry McCammon run for no gain to the MONM 47Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
97.3%
Larry McCammon run for 8 yds to the MONM 39Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+1
97.2%
Larry McCammon run for 1 yd to the MONM 38Similar
Q2 2:33
4TH & 1
OPP 38
0
97.3%
Zuberi Mobley run for no gain to the MONM 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 13TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 2:083% → 7%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
96.8%
Marquez Mccray pass complete to Dymere Miller for 6 yds to the MONM 44Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
96.7%
Marquez Mccray run for 3 yds to the MONM 41Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+4
96.9%
Jaden Shirden run for 4 yds to the MONM 45Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+3
96.9%
Marquez Mccray pass complete to Jaden Shirden for 3 yds to the MONM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
96.9%
Marquez Mccray pass complete to Gavin Nelson for 21 yds to the FAU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
96.5%
Marquez Mccray pass complete to Dymere Miller for 4 yds to the FAU 27Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
96.4%
Marquez Mccray pass incomplete to Assanti KearneySimilar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 6
OPP 27
0
96.6%
Marquez Mccray pass incomplete to Dre TuckerSimilar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+27
92.9%
Assanti Kearney 27 Yd pass from Marquez McCray (Michael Calton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
94.4%
Zuberi Mobley run for 6 yds to the FAU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1994% → 93%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
93.8%
Zuberi Mobley run for 5 yds to the FAU 22Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+3
93.7%
Zuberi Mobley run for 3 yds to the FAU 25Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+1
93.5%
Zuberi Mobley run for 1 yd to the FAU 26Similar
Q3 12:35
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
93.2%
Logan Lupo punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Eddie Morales III at the MONM 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:057% → 7%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
93.0%
Marquez Mccray pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
93.3%
Marquez Mccray pass complete to Dymere Miller for 9 yds to the MONM 40Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+3
92.6%
Jaden Shirden run for 3 yds to the MONM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-7
92.8%
Marquez Mccray sacked by Marlon Bradley for a loss of 7 yards to the MONM 36Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 17
OWN 36
+5
93.4%
Marquez Mccray run for 5 yds to the MONM 41Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+4
93.4%
Marquez Mccray pass complete to Jaden Shirden for 4 yds to the MONM 45Similar
Q3 9:30
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
93.2%
Luke Schabel punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Lajohntay Wester at the FAU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:3194% → 98%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
94.1%
Larry McCammon run for 4 yds to the FAU 30Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
94.1%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Lajohntay WesterSimilar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+14
93.8%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Lajohntay Wester for 14 yds to the FAU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
94.4%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Tony Johnson for 9 yds to the MONM 47Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+15
94.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Thompson,Casey pass incomplete deep right to Wester,LaJohntay PENALTY MON Pass Interference (Dotson,Jaylen) 15 yards from MON47 to MON32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-8
94.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun McCammon,Larry rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MON25 (Morales III,Eddie) PENALTY FAU Illegal Block in Back (Boatwright,Carter) 8 yards from MON32 to MON40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 18
OPP 40
+5
94.3%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Lajohntay Wester for 5 yds to the MONM 35Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+35
98.0%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 35 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:342% → 2%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.8%
Jaden Shirden run for 3 yds to the MONM 28Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
97.7%
Marquez Mccray pass complete to TJ Speight for 14 yds to the MONM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
97.7%
Marquez Mccray pass complete to Dymere Miller for 2 yds to the MONM 44Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+3
97.7%
Jaden Shirden run for 3 yds to the MONM 41Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 11
OWN 41
0
97.8%
Marquez Mccray pass incomplete to Assanti KearneySimilar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 11
OWN 41
+26
98.2%
Luke Schabel punt for 50 yds , Lajohntay Wester returns for 26 yds to the FAU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19INT
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:2698% → 98%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
97.7%
Zuberi Mobley run for 1 yd to the FAU 34Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
97.6%
Casey Thompson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:172% → 2%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
98.1%
Marquez Mccray pass complete to Jack Neri for 5 yds to the FAU 32Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+4
97.8%
Jaden Shirden run for 4 yds to the FAU 28Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 1
OPP 28
0
98.0%
Jaden Shirden run for no gain to the FAU 28Similar
Q3 2:42
4TH & 1
OPP 28
0
98.1%
Marquez Mccray pass incomplete to Jack NeriSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 21TD
1 play · 72 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
99.8%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Tony Johnson for 72 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 22INT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:480% → 0%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Jaden Shirden run for 4 yds to the MONM 29Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
99.8%
Marquez Mccray pass complete to Jaden Shirden for 3 yds to the MONM 32Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
99.8%
Marquez Mccray pass complete to Jack Neri for 6 yds to the MONM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Marquez Mccray pass incomplete to Assanti KearneySimilar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Marquez Mccray pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 23FUMBLE
2 plays · 38 yds · 0:11100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+30
99.8%
Larry McCammon run for 30 yds to the MONM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
99.8%
Larry McCammon run for 8 yds to the MONM 4 Larry McCammon fumbled, recovered by MONM Eddie Morales IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 4:100% → 0%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
99.9%
Jaden Shirden run for 6 yds to the MONM 10Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+5
99.9%
Jaden Shirden run for 5 yds to the MONM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Jaden Shirden run for no gain to the MONM 15Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Marquez Mccray pass incomplete to Dymere MillerSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+15
99.9%
TJ Speight run for 15 yds to the MONM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
99.9%
Marquez Mccray pass complete to TJ Speight for 1 yd to the MONM 31Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+6
99.9%
Marquez Mccray pass complete to TJ Speight for 6 yds to the MONM 37Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+1
99.8%
Jaden Shirden run for 1 yd to the MONM 36Similar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Luke Schabel punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Lajohntay Wester at the FAU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:10100% → 100%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
99.9%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Tony Johnson for 1 yd to the FAU 32Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Lajohntay WesterSimilar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+2
99.9%
Casey Thompson run for 2 yds to the FAU 34Similar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Logan Lupo punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Eddie Morales III at the MONM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 26TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:100% → 1%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Jamir Barnes run for no gain to the MONM 25Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Marquez Mccray run for 5 yds to the MONM 30Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+42
99.9%
Marquez Mccray pass complete to TJ Speight for 42 yds to the FAU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.9%
Jamir Barnes run for 3 yds to the FAU 25Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+9
99.9%
Jamir Barnes run for 9 yds to the FAU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.1%
Dre Tucker 16 Yd pass from Marquez McCray (Michael Calton PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:5499% → 100%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
99.4%
Zuberi Mobley run for 9 yds to the FAU 29Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+1
99.4%
Zuberi Mobley run for 1 yd to the FAU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
99.4%
Zuberi Mobley run for 1 yd to the FAU 31Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+3
99.4%
Zuberi Mobley run for 3 yds to the FAU 34Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+1
99.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Jymetre Hester for 1 yd to the FAU 35Similar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
99.5%
Logan Lupo punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Eddie Morales III at the MONM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 28DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:381% → 1%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
99.4%
Marquez Mccray pass complete to Dymere Miller for 14 yds to the MONM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.4%
Marquez Mccray pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+12
99.4%
Marquez Mccray pass complete to Dymere Miller for 12 yds to the FAU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.4%
Marquez Mccray pass incomplete to Jack NeriSimilar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
99.4%
PENALTY MON False Start (McCray,Marquez) 5 yards from FAU45 to FAU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 15
50
0
99.4%
Marquez Mccray pass incomplete to Jamir BarnesSimilar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 15
50
0
99.4%
Marquez Mccray pass incomplete to Dymere MillerSimilar
Q4 2:41
4TH & 15
50
0
99.5%
Marquez Mccray pass incomplete to Dymere MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 29DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:31100% → 100%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
50
+2
99.6%
Zuberi Mobley run for 2 yds to the MONM 48Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+2
99.6%
Zuberi Mobley run for 2 yds to the MONM 46Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+3
99.6%
Zuberi Mobley run for 3 yds to the MONM 43Similar
Q4 0:10
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+1
99.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Zeke Moore for 1 yd to the MONM 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
99.5%
Jamir Barnes run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:25
Assanti Kearney 27 Yd pass from Marquez McCray (Michael Calton Kick)
-3.7
TD · Q3 6:59
Casey Thompson pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 35 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)
+3.7
TD · Q2 6:48
Casey Thompson pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 8 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)
+3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com