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ECU

East Carolina 0 at Navy 10

NAVY
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Alex Flinn pass complete to Gerald Green for 6 yds to the NAVY 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:47: Alex Tecza run for 19 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +5.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 7:10: Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 48 — ECU win probability +4.7 pts (now 35%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:19: Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the ECU 49 — NAVY win probability +4.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:39: Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the ECU 15 — NAVY win probability +5.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:59: Timeout East Carolina, clock 02:59 — NAVY win probability +4.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 10ECU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 9:17NAVY 4th & 5 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:57ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:46NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:38ECU 4th & 8 at ECU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:18ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:49ECU 4th & 10 at NAVY 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    33.8%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:00NAVY 4th & 7 at ECU 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:03NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 33, up 7
    Close callPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:17ECU 4th & 22 at ECU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−3.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:33NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:04ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 32, down 7
    Close callPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:47NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−1.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:49ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:08NAVY 4th & 21 at ECU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−4.0
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    73.2%−10.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:39ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 31, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:49NAVY 4th & 2 at ECU 10, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%
    55% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.6%−2.0
    88% to make
    Punt
    73.7%−12.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:39ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.2%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:29NAVY 4th & 21 at ECU 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−1.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    90.5%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:59ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 26, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:39ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%−0.6
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:18NAVY 4th & 6 at ECU 39, up 10
    Close callPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:47NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1INT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:2842% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
57.8%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Javious Bond for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
57.8%
Javious Bond run for 4 yds to the ECU 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
57.8%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 10 yds to the ECU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
57.8%
Javious Bond run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECU 34Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+5
57.9%
Alex Flinn pass intercepted Dashaun Peele return for a loss of 5 yards to the NAVY 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 3:1558% → 58%
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
58.0%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 25Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+20
58.0%
Xavier Arline run for 20 yds to the NAVY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
58.2%
Alex Tecza run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 44Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+2
58.1%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Amin Hassan for 2 yds to the NAVY 46Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+4
58.0%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Amin Hassan for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 5
50
0
58.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2042% → 42%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
58.0%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 6 yds to the ECU 26Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-2
57.9%
Gerald Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 24Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
58.2%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:57
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
58.4%
Luke Larsen punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:1159% → 58%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
58.5%
Alex Tecza run for 7 yds to the NAVY 47Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-4
58.7%
Xavier Arline sacked by J.D. Lampley for a loss of 4 yards to the NAVY 43Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+4
58.2%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 4 yds to the NAVY 47Similar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
58.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 49 yds, downed at the ECU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:0842% → 41%
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
58.1%
Javious Bond run for 2 yds to the ECU 6Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+1
58.1%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Javious Bond for 1 yd to the ECU 7Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 7
OWN 7
-1
58.5%
Alex Flinn sacked by Landon Robinson for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 6Similar
Q1 3:38
4TH & 8
OWN 6
0
58.9%
Luke Larsen punt for 47 yds, downed at the NAVY 47Similar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
59.1%
Navy Penalty, False Start (Joshua Pena) to the NAVY 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
2 plays · 53 yds · 0:5158% → 64%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+39
58.4%
Xavier Arline run for 39 yds to the ECU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
64.0%
Alex Tecza run for 19 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:2938% → 37%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
62.4%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 5 yds to the ECU 31Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-5
62.0%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Brock Spalding) to the ECU 26Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
62.5%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Gerald Green for 3 yds to the ECU 29Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
62.8%
Alex Flinn run for no gain to the ECU 29Similar
Q1 0:25
4TH & 7
OWN 29
+5
63.9%
LARSEN, Luke punt 12 yards to the ECU41 out of bounds, clock 00:25. PENALTY NAV Offsides on CRAWFORD, Khalil enforced 5 yards from the ECU29 to the ECU34 [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:18
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
63.3%
Luke Larsen punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:0764% → 66%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
63.8%
Alex Tecza run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+7
63.6%
Xavier Arline run for 7 yds to the NAVY 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+5
64.1%
Xavier Arline run for 5 yds to the NAVY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
64.7%
Alex Tecza run for 11 yds to the ECU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-6
65.9%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 6 yards to the NAVY 48 Xavier Arline fumbled, recovered by ECU Jason Shuford [SG] QB Keeper ARLINE, Xavier rush up the middle for a loss of 6 yards, ARLINE, Xavier fumbled at ECU50 , recovered by ECU SHUFORD, Jason at the NAV48, returned 0 yards to the NAV48, End of Play, clock 12:53.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9MISSED FG
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:0438% → 35%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
62.2%
Alex Flinn run for 16 yds to the NAVY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
61.4%
Alex Flinn run for a loss of 3 yards to the NAVY 35Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 13
OPP 35
0
62.1%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 13
OPP 35
+3
63.3%
Alex Flinn run for 3 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q2 10:49
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+49
64.8%
Andrew Conrad 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10FUMBLE
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:3965% → 70%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
65.4%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 30Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+2
66.4%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+13
65.9%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 13 yds to the NAVY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
67.9%
Daba Fofana run for 7 yds to the ECU 48Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+4
68.2%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the ECU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
68.1%
Alex Tecza run for 7 yds to the ECU 37Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 3
OPP 37
-16
70.1%
Xavier Arline sacked for a loss of 16 yards to the NAVY 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:4635% → 34%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
65.4%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 48Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-2
66.4%
Alex Flinn sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:2470% → 69%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
50
+4
70.3%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the ECU 46Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-5
70.4%
Navy Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Xavier Arline) to the ECU 49Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+2
69.0%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the ECU 47Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
69.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Jsi Hatfield at the ECU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13INT
5 plays · 29 yds · 2:4131% → 32%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
69.0%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 16 yds to the ECU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
68.2%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 9 yds to the ECU 45Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+4
66.6%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 4 yds to the ECU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
66.7%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Gerald Green for no gain to the ECU 49Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-15
68.0%
Alex Flinn pass intercepted Mbiti Williams Jr. return for 15 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14MISSED FG
10 plays · 25 yds · 1:1972% → 73%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
50
+1
72.3%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the ECU 49Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+3
71.7%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the ECU 46Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+8
70.9%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Alex Tecza for 8 yds to the ECU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
71.2%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the ECU 34Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-1
71.5%
Alex Tecza run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 35Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+10
71.3%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Regis Velez for 10 yds to the ECU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+42
72.8%
Nathan Kirkwood 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5770% → 70%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
70.2%
Amin Hassan run for 3 yds to the NAVY 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
70.2%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
69.6%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 33Similar
Q3 13:03
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
69.5%
Riley Riethman punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jsi Hatfield at the ECU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:4631% → 28%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
69.3%
Alex Flinn run for 7 yds to the ECU 37Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+4
67.6%
Javious Bond run for 4 yds to the ECU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
68.3%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-15
68.6%
East Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (Chase Sowell) to the ECU 29Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 22
OWN 29
0
71.1%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:17
4TH & 22
OWN 29
0
72.5%
Luke Larsen punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:4472% → 74%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
71.7%
Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the NAVY 33Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+9
72.6%
Xavier Arline run for 9 yds to the NAVY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
73.6%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the NAVY 45Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+3
73.8%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 48Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
72.8%
Xavier Arline pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:33
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
74.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 28 yds, downed at the ECU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2929% → 27%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
71.4%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Desirrio Riles for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 23Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
71.7%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+9
72.9%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Tyler Savage for 9 yds to the ECU 32Similar
Q3 7:04
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
72.7%
Luke Larsen punt for 51 yds, downed at the NAVY 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 4:1776% → 76%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
76.0%
Eli Heidenreich run for 4 yds to the NAVY 21Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 6
OWN 21
-5
75.9%
Navy Penalty, False Start (Ben Purvis) to the NAVY 16Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+2
75.5%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Daba Fofana for 2 yds to the NAVY 18Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+9
74.6%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 9 yds to the NAVY 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
76.1%
Xavier Arline run for no gain to the NAVY 27Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
75.8%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the NAVY 31Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+1
75.3%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Alex Tecza for 1 yd to the NAVY 32Similar
Q3 2:47
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
75.7%
Riley Riethman punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5827% → 24%
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
73.2%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
73.7%
Javious Bond run for 4 yds to the ECU 35Similar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
73.9%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:49
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
75.6%
Luke Larsen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21MISSED FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 4:4179% → 83%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
78.9%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 22Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
78.7%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the NAVY 24Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+49
81.8%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 49 yds to the ECU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
85.2%
Alex Tecza run for 13 yds to the ECU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
85.1%
Navy Penalty, False Start (Joshua Pena) to the ECU 19Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 19
-1
85.1%
Alex Tecza run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 20
-5
84.7%
Eli Heidenreich run for a loss of 5 yards to the ECU 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 21
OPP 25
0
83.3%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the ECU 25Similar
Q4 12:08
4TH & 21
OPP 25
+42
83.0%
Nathan Kirkwood 42 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:2920% → 18%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.3%
Alex Flinn run for 2 yds to the ECU 27Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
79.8%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
81.4%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Tyler Savage for 4 yds to the ECU 31Similar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-13
81.9%
Luke Larsen run for a loss of 13 yards to the ECU 18 Luke Larsen fumbled, recovered by NAVY Adam Walker II [PUNT] LARSEN, Luke rush to the right for a loss of 13 yards, LARSEN, Luke fumbled at ECU20 , recovered by NAV WALKER, Adam at the ECU18, returned 0 yards to the ECU18, End of Play; ECU turnover on downs, clock 10:39.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5088% → 89%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
87.6%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the ECU 15Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+2
87.6%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the ECU 13Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+3
86.8%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the ECU 10Similar
Q4 8:49
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+27
88.5%
Nathan Kirkwood 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:1011% → 8%
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
89.0%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 11 yds to the ECU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.9%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 4 yds to the ECU 29Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
87.8%
Alex Flinn sacked by Justin Reed for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 28Similar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
89.5%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 5 yds to the ECU 33Similar
Q4 6:39
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
90.8%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
91.8%
Navy Penalty, False Start (Brent Self) to the ECU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 2:1092% → 91%
Q4 6:39
1ST & 15
OPP 38
-1
91.5%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 39Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 16
OPP 39
-1
91.4%
Daba Fofana run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 40Similar
Q4 6:39
3RD & 17
OPP 40
+1
90.7%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the ECU 39Similar
Q4 6:39
4TH & 16
OPP 39
-5
89.7%
Navy Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the ECU 44Similar
Q4 4:29
4TH & 21
OPP 44
0
91.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 26DOWNS
10 plays · 23 yds · 2:508% → 5%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
92.3%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Javious Bond for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 19Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+10
92.4%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 10 yds to the ECU 29Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-10
91.4%
East Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chase Sowell) to the ECU 24Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+2
95.5%
Alex Flinn run for 2 yds to the ECU 26Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+8
95.6%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 8 yds to the ECU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
94.8%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 7 yds to the ECU 41Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 3
OWN 41
0
94.3%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+2
94.4%
Alex Flinn run for 2 yds to the ECU 43Similar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
95.3%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:2197% → 96%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
96.5%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the ECU 42Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+2
96.5%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the ECU 40Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+1
96.4%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the ECU 39Similar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
96.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 28END OF GAME
7 plays · 38 yds · 1:183% → 3%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
96.7%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 21 yds to the ECU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
96.3%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Tyler Savage for 8 yds to the ECU 49Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 2
OWN 49
0
95.8%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+12
96.1%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 12 yds to the NAVY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-15
95.5%
QB Keeper FLINN, Alex rush up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the NAV32 (HARBOUR, Will). PENALTY ECU Personal Foul on HALL, Dustyn enforced 15 yards from the NAV39 to the ECU46 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 25
OWN 46
+6
96.7%
Alex Flinn run for 6 yds to the NAVY 48Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 19
OPP 48
+6
96.6%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Gerald Green for 6 yds to the NAVY 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 10:39
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the ECU 15
+5.7
TD · Q1 2:47
Alex Tecza run for 19 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
+5.6
KEY PLAY · Q2 7:10
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 48
-4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com