Try the model
SMU

SMU 31 at East Carolina 10

ECU
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2023 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:53 · Luke Larsen punt for 53 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 9Pregame prior−28.6Home team on offense+0.1Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:04: Preston Stone pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 24 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +2.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:47: Mason Garcia run for 6 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +10.0 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:13: Preston Stone pass incomplete to Jordan Hudson — SMU win probability +7.6 pts (now 75%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 13:18: Collin Rogers 50 yd FG GOOD — SMU win probability +6.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:22: Alex Flinn pass intercepted for a TD Jonathan McGill return for 34 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +16.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 11 of 15SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 13:52SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 18, tied
    Close callPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:53ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:19SMU 4th & 2 at SMU 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:25ECU 4th & 13 at ECU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:06ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:55ECU 4th & 2 at SMU 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    22.4%−0.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:40ECU 4th & 9 at SMU 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:33SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 22, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−0.3
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:40ECU 4th & 9 at ECU 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:23SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 37, up 11
    Close callPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:47ECU 4th & 2 at SMU 6, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    21.9%−0.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    18.4%−4.3
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:16SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 38, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:00ECU 4th & 8 at ECU 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:53ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 13:00SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  16. Q3 11:23ECU 4th & 9 at ECU 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−1.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  17. Q3 10:50SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−2.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  18. Q3 8:58ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−1.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  19. Q3 7:49SMU 4th & 11 at SMU 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−1.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%
    average punt
  20. Q3 4:19ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%
    average punt
  21. Q3 0:37SMU 4th & 4 at ECU 21, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%−0.7
    74% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−12.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 13:18SMU 4th & 11 at ECU 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−1.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.7%
    49% to make
    Punt
    66.7%−2.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 11:22ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 42, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%−1.2
    average punt
  24. Q4 7:36SMU 4th & 12 at SMU 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−3.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
  25. Q4 6:13ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 33, down 14
    Close callPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%−0.1
    average punt
  26. Q4 0:59ECU 4th & 10 at SMU 19, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 7:09SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:04SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:47ECU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:22SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.8
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:29SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5579% → 79%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
20.6%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+6
20.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for 6 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 4
OWN 18
0
20.9%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q1 13:52
4TH & 4
OWN 18
+7
21.1%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 49 yds , Jsi Hatfield returns for 7 yds to the ECU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4121% → 22%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
21.2%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the ECU 40Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
21.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECU 42Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+5
21.5%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 5 yds to the ECU 47Similar
Q1 11:53
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
22.0%
Luke Larsen punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3478% → 77%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
22.0%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Jordan Kerley) to the SMU 15Similar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
22.1%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Jordan KerleySimilar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+1
22.2%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 1 yd to the SMU 16Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+12
22.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Romello Brinson for 12 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 10:19
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
23.0%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jsi Hatfield at the ECU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:4223% → 23%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
23.0%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 2 yds to the ECU 37Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
23.1%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Chase SowellSimilar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-5
23.2%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Jacob Sacra) to the ECU 32Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 13
OWN 32
0
23.0%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Rahjai HarrisSimilar
Q1 9:25
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
23.0%
Luke Larsen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Roderick Daniels Jr. at the SMU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:0877% → 79%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
23.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+39
23.5%
Preston Stone pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 39 yds to the ECU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
23.0%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the ECU 31Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+3
23.2%
Preston Stone run for 3 yds to the ECU 28Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+7
23.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 7 yds to the ECU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
21.5%
Preston Stone pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 21 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4023% → 22%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
22.6%
Mason Garcia run for no gain to the ECU 28Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
22.5%
Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Kelan RobinsonSimilar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
22.3%
Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Chase SowellSimilar
Q1 6:06
4TH & 10
OWN 28
-2
22.3%
Luke Larsen punt for 44 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 0:4878% → 81%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+48
22.5%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 48 yds to the ECU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
21.8%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECU 24Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+24
19.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 24 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8FG
15 plays · 44 yds · 6:1320% → 22%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
20.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 11 yds to the ECU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
20.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECU 37Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+6
20.6%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for 6 yds to the ECU 43Similar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+4
20.3%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for 4 yds to the ECU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
20.5%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECU 44Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+14
20.4%
Mason Garcia run for 14 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
20.7%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+3
20.8%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+1
20.8%
Mason Garcia run for 1 yd to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+2
20.6%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 2 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
21.3%
Mason Garcia run for 1 yd to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
20.9%
Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Desirrio RilesSimilar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 9
OPP 31
0
20.6%
Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Chase SowellSimilar
Q2 13:40
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+49
22.0%
Andrew Conrad 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5179% → 78%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
21.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+3
21.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 3
OWN 22
0
21.6%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 3
OWN 22
+6
21.9%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 52 yds , Jsi Hatfield returns for 6 yds to the ECU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4222% → 21%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
22.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECU 33Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-5
22.0%
Mason Garcia sacked by DeVere Levelston and David Abiara for a loss of 5 yards to the ECU 28Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 14
OWN 28
+5
21.3%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 5 yds to the ECU 33Similar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
21.3%
Luke Larsen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Roderick Daniels Jr. at the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0779% → 78%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
21.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
21.3%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Romello BrinsonSimilar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+5
21.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 5 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 9:23
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
21.8%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jsi Hatfield at the ECU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12TD
15 plays · 81 yds · 6:0222% → 33%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
21.9%
Kamarro Edmonds run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 17Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 12
OWN 17
0
21.8%
Mason Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 12
OWN 17
+17
20.7%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for 17 yds to the ECU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
21.7%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ECU 29Similar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+1
20.9%
Kamarro Edmonds run for 1 yd to the ECU 30Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+45
20.3%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for 45 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
22.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+2
22.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+5
21.9%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for 5 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
22.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 7 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+2
22.5%
Mason Garcia run for 2 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 1
OPP 5
-1
22.8%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 6Similar
Q2 2:47
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+6
32.8%
Mason Garcia run for 6 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:1970% → 71%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
29.7%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+12
30.1%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jake Bailey for 12 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
28.9%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Jordan HudsonSimilar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
29.4%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Jordan HudsonSimilar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+9
30.2%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jake Bailey for 9 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
28.7%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 40 yds , Jsi Hatfield returns for no gain to the ECU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 1:0631% → 29%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
30.8%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for no gain to the ECU 22Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
30.9%
Mason Garcia run for 3 yds to the ECU 25Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+9
27.8%
Mason Garcia run for 9 yds to the ECU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
29.1%
Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Marlon Gunn Jr.Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
29.0%
Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Jsi HatfieldSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+2
27.9%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECU 36Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
28.8%
Luke Larsen punt for 33 yds, downed at the SMU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0231% → 30%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
30.7%
Mason Garcia run for a loss of 8 yards to the ECU 17Similar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
30.5%
Mason Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:24
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+15
29.6%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 15 yds to the ECU 32Similar
Q3 13:53
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
30.2%
Luke Larsen punt for 30 yds, downed at the SMU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4472% → 69%
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
28.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
28.6%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to RJ MarylandSimilar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
29.6%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Roderick Daniels Jr.Similar
Q3 13:00
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
31.5%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2632% → 30%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
31.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECU 36Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
31.9%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the ECU 36Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
31.1%
Mason Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
30.0%
Luke Larsen punt for 38 yds for a 1ST down , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for no gain to the SMU 36 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (15 Yards) to the SMU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2271% → 68%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
28.9%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
29.5%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to RJ MarylandSimilar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
30.5%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to RJ MarylandSimilar
Q3 10:50
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
32.4%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 52 yds, downed at the ECU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:5231% → 31%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-4
31.3%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Chase Sowell) to the ECU 3Similar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 14
OWN 3
+8
31.4%
Mason Garcia run for 8 yds to the ECU 11Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 6
OWN 11
-6
32.0%
Gunn Jr., Marlon rush for 12 yards to the EASTCRLINA23, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding (Moorer, Parker) 6 yards to the EASTCRLINA5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+7
31.7%
Mason Garcia run for 7 yds to the ECU 12Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 5
OWN 12
0
31.0%
Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Jaylen JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:58
4TH & 5
OWN 12
0
30.5%
Luke Larsen punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Roderick Daniels Jr. at the SMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:3971% → 67%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
29.3%
Preston Stone sacked by Jeremy Lewis and Chad Stephens for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 46Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+2
30.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
31.3%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Roderick Daniels Jr.Similar
Q3 7:49
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
33.5%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jsi Hatfield at the ECU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:2132% → 30%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
31.7%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 7 yds to the ECU 17Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+5
32.1%
Kamarro Edmonds run for 5 yds to the ECU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
32.3%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Kamarro Edmonds for 3 yds to the ECU 25Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-2
33.3%
Alex Flinn run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 23Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+13
31.5%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 13 yds to the ECU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
33.3%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
32.9%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
31.4%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:19
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
30.3%
Luke Larsen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Roderick Daniels Jr. at the SMU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22MISSED FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:3471% → 71%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
29.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 12 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
28.5%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
28.3%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Hudson for no gain to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+24
29.2%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jake Bailey for 24 yds to the ECU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
25.8%
Stone, Preston pass incomplete to Hudson, Jordan, PENALTY EASTCRLINA pass interference (Jackson, Antione) 15 yards to the EASTCRLINA27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SMU.Similar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
24.5%
Preston Stone pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 2 yds to the ECU 25Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+4
24.5%
Preston Stone run for 4 yds to the ECU 21Similar
Q3 0:41
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
26.0%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Moochie DixonSimilar
Q3 0:37
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
28.7%
Collin Rogers 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:2032% → 32%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
32.3%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Hampton Ergle) to the ECU 16Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+2
32.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECU 18Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+14
32.3%
Alex Flinn run for 14 yds to the ECU 32 Alex Flinn fumbled, forced by Kobe Wilson, recovered by SMU Kobe WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5575% → 79%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
24.7%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Jordan HudsonSimilar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-1
24.7%
Jaylan Knighton run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 33Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 11
OPP 33
0
26.6%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q4 13:18
4TH & 11
OPP 33
+50
20.6%
Collin Rogers 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4725% → 24%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
24.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECU 39Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
27.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECU 41Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+1
26.1%
Alex Flinn run for 1 yd to the ECU 42Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
23.9%
Luke Larsen punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jonathan McGill at the SMU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:3579% → 81%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
21.0%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+3
19.2%
Preston Stone pass complete to Romello Brinson for 3 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+9
19.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 9 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
17.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for 11 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
16.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 41Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 12
OWN 41
0
16.5%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Moochie DixonSimilar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 12
OWN 41
0
17.4%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Jake BaileySimilar
Q4 7:36
4TH & 12
OWN 41
0
19.1%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jsi Hatfield at the ECU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 27INT TD
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:0823% → 6%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
22.5%
Flinn, Alex pass incomplete to Sowell, Chase, PENALTY SMU pass interference (Woods, Charles) 15 yards to the EASTCRLINA29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA.Similar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-34
6.2%
Alex Flinn pass intercepted for a TD Jonathan McGill return for 34 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:596% → 6%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
6.1%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 8 yds to the ECU 33Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
6.4%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Chase SowellSimilar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
6.3%
Alex Flinn run for no gain to the ECU 33Similar
Q4 6:13
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
5.6%
Luke Larsen punt for 37 yds, downed at the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 29TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:3595% → 99%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
4.9%
Preston Stone run for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 25Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+10
4.9%
Preston Stone run for 10 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+5
4.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to LJ Johnson Jr. for 5 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
4.0%
Preston Stone pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for no gain to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+16
3.1%
Preston Stone run for 16 yds to the ECU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
2.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the ECU 43Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+43
0.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 43 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 30DOWNS
11 plays · 56 yds · 1:171% → 1%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.9%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 3 yds to the ECU 28Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
0.9%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 10 yds to the ECU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+30
0.8%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for 30 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
1.0%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Marlon Gunn Jr. for 13 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
1.0%
Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Chase SowellSimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
0.9%
Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Marlon Gunn Jr.Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
0.9%
Mason Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 10
OPP 19
0
0.8%
Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Shane CalhounSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 31END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:53100% → 100%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 18Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 18
0
0.4%
TEAM run for no gain to the SMU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:22
Alex Flinn pass intercepted for a TD Jonathan McGill return for 34 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
-16.4
TD · Q2 2:47
Mason Garcia run for 6 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)
+10
KEY PLAY · Q4 14:13
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Jordan Hudson
-7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com