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ECU

East Carolina 17 at Rice 24

RICE
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Rice Stadium
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Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:33 · Conor Hunt punt for 40 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Pregame prior+12.4Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score differential+0.0Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:32: JT Daniels pass complete to Rawson MacNeill for 4 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK) — RICE win probability +5.1 pts (now 69%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:13: Andrew Conrad 38 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +6.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 0:49: Chase Jenkins run for 4 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK) — RICE win probability +17.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:24: Rahjai Harris 1 Yd Run (Chase Sowell Pass to Chase Sowell for Two-Point Conversion) — ECU win probability +30.4 pts (now 54%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:24: JT Daniels pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 44 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK) — RICE win probability +27.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ECU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 13:33RICE 4th & 1 at RICE 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:33ECU 4th & 4 at RICE 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    39.6%−0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:17ECU 4th & 9 at RICE 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    39.0%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:24ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:34RICE 4th & 14 at ECU 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    55.6%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:00ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:34RICE 4th & 17 at RICE 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−2.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:34ECU 4th & 2 at RICE 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    32.7%−0.9
    68% to make
    Punt
    28.1%−5.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:51ECU 4th & 2 at RICE 10, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%
    55% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.8%−1.3
    88% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−7.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:33RICE 4th & 19 at RICE 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−2.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:13ECU 4th & 10 at RICE 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−2.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−4.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:33ECU 4th & 1 at RICE 1, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    35.4%−3.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    26.7%−12.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:35RICE 4th & 11 at ECU 44, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−1.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    61.4%−2.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:59ECU 4th & 8 at ECU 15, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−2.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:32ECU 4th & 6 at RICE 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−1.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−4.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:06RICE 4th & 5 at RICE 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:17ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.7%−0.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:11RICE 4th & 10 at ECU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    92.8%−1.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:24ECU 4th & 14 at ECU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.5%
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.9%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ECU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 11:32RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:49RICE Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:24ECU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    36.6%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    37.2%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:24RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−1.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICEDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2763% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
62.7%
Juma Otoviano run for 9 yds to the RICE 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
62.7%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Dean ConnorsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
62.7%
Daelen Alexander run for no gain to the RICE 34Similar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
62.6%
Conor Hunt punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2FG
15 plays · 56 yds · 6:1637% → 39%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
62.6%
Alex Flinn run for 1 yd to the ECU 27Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+13
62.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 13 yds to the ECU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
62.5%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
50
+3
62.5%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 3 yds to the RICE 47Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-5
62.5%
PENALTY ECU False Start (Murphy,Owen) 5 yards from Rice47 to ECU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+2
62.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 10
50
+6
62.6%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 6 yds to the RICE 44Similar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 4
OPP 44
+14
62.6%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 14 yds to the RICE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
62.4%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jaylen JohnsonSimilar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
62.4%
Alex Flinn run for no gain to the RICE 30Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+11
62.5%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Brock Spalding for 11 yds to the RICE 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
62.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the RICE 18Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
62.4%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Shane CalhounSimilar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
62.5%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Chase SowellSimilar
Q1 7:17
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+35
61.4%
Andrew Conrad 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3INT
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:1662% → 62%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.5%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Boden GroenSimilar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
61.4%
East Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (Julius Wood) to the RICE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
62.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Rawson MacNeill for 9 yds to the ECU 48Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 1
OPP 48
0
62.1%
JT Daniels pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3739% → 39%
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
61.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECU 28Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
61.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECU 31Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
61.4%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Shane CalhounSimilar
Q1 4:24
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+39
61.5%
Luke Larsen punt for 55 yds , Sean Fresch returns for 39 yds to the ECU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5FG
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:5062% → 62%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+28
61.9%
Chase Jenkins run for 28 yds to the ECU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
62.3%
JoVoni Johnson-McCray run for 4 yds to the ECU 23Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 14
OPP 23
0
61.7%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Luke McCaffreySimilar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 14
OPP 23
0
61.1%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Luke McCaffreySimilar
Q1 2:34
4TH & 14
OPP 23
+41
61.6%
Tim Horn 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6INT
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:3439% → 41%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
61.3%
PENALTY Rice Personal Foul (Devones,Tre'shon) 15 yards from ECU25 to ECU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
60.6%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 21 yds to the RICE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
60.1%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 9 yds to the RICE 30Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+12
59.6%
Javious Bond run for 12 yds to the RICE 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
59.6%
PENALTY ECU Holding (Moorer,Parker) 10 yards from Rice18 to Rice28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 20
OPP 28
0
59.4%
Alex Flinn pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:2863% → 69%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
63.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Rawson MacNeill for 8 yds to the ECU 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+30
63.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Rawson MacNeill for 30 yds to the ECU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
63.9%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the ECU 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 16
0
63.9%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Rawson MacNeillSimilar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 12
OPP 16
+14
64.0%
PENALTY ECU Pass Interference (Revel,Shavon) 14 yards from ECU16 to ECU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
64.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Braylen Walker for 3 yds to the ECU 6Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
64.1%
Juma Otoviano run for 2 yds to the ECU 4Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
69.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Rawson MacNeill for 4 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:3232% → 31%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
68.1%
PENALTY Rice Pass Interference (Devones,Tre'shon) 15 yards from ECU25 to ECU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
67.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECU 37Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 13
OWN 37
0
68.1%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Chase SowellSimilar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+11
68.7%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 11 yds to the ECU 48Similar
Q2 10:00
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
69.1%
Luke Larsen punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the RICE 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 2:2670% → 70%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
69.6%
Dean Connors run for 7 yds to the RICE 6Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 17
OWN 6
+8
69.3%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Boden Groen for 8 yds to the RICE 14Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 9
OWN 14
-5
69.0%
PENALTY Rice False Start (Banks,Brant) 5 yards from Rice14 to Rice09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 14
OWN 9
+3
68.9%
Chase Jenkins run for 3 yds to the RICE 6Similar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 17
OWN 6
0
69.8%
Conor Hunt punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 4:4330% → 33%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
69.8%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 11 yds to the RICE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
69.0%
Javious Bond run for 11 yds to the RICE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
67.9%
Javious Bond run for 3 yds to the RICE 29Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+5
67.6%
Javious Bond run for 5 yds to the RICE 24Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 2
OPP 24
0
68.7%
Kamarro Edmonds run for no gain to the RICE 24Similar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+6
69.7%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 6 yds to the RICE 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
67.6%
Kamarro Edmonds run for 7 yds to the RICE 11Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+1
67.6%
Alex Flinn run for 1 yd to the RICE 10Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 2
OPP 10
0
68.7%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Brock SpaldingSimilar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+27
67.3%
Andrew Conrad 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 1:1868% → 66%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
67.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 10 yds to the RICE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
68.0%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Boden GroenSimilar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
67.9%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Rawson MacNeillSimilar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-9
67.1%
JT Daniels sacked by Chad Stephens for a loss of 9 yards to the RICE 26Similar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 19
OWN 26
+18
65.5%
Conor Hunt punt for 52 yds , Jsi Hatfield returns for 18 yds to the ECU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 1:2032% → 37%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
68.2%
Alex Flinn run for 17 yds to the RICE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-6
66.1%
Alex Flinn sacked by Gabriel Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the RICE 49Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 16
OPP 49
+3
68.7%
Alex Flinn run for 3 yds to the RICE 46Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 13
OPP 46
-5
69.0%
PENALTY ECU Delay Of Game 5 yards from Rice46 to ECU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 18
OWN 49
+30
69.7%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 30 yds to the RICE 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
64.0%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
64.4%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Rahjai HarrisSimilar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
66.1%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jsi HatfieldSimilar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+38
62.8%
Andrew Conrad 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:1365% → 65%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
65.3%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Juma OtovianoSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
65.2%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the RICE 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:1937% → 39%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
62.7%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the ECU 34Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+12
63.1%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 12 yds to the ECU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
60.8%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 17 yds to the RICE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+34
60.3%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 34 yds to the RICE 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
59.0%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the RICE 3Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
58.9%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Brock SpaldingSimilar
Q3 14:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
60.2%
Alex Flinn run for 2 yds to the RICE 1Similar
Q3 11:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
61.4%
Alex Flinn run for no gain to the RICE 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 15PUNT
13 plays · 55 yds · 4:5864% → 63%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
63.6%
PENALTY Rice Delay Of Game . NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
63.6%
PENALTY Rice False Start (Cedeno,Miguel). NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
63.6%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Luke McCaffreySimilar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+5
63.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Braylen Walker for 5 yds to the RICE 6Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+24
62.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 24 yds to the RICE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
64.2%
PENALTY ECU Holding (Edwards III,Michael) 10 yards from Rice30 to Rice40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
65.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 1 yd to the RICE 41Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+6
65.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Quinton Jackson for 6 yds to the RICE 47Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+10
66.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 10 yds to the ECU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
67.4%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Luke McCaffreySimilar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
67.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 1 yd to the ECU 44Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 11
OPP 44
0
65.0%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Braylen WalkerSimilar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 11
OPP 44
0
63.3%
Conor Hunt punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jsi Hatfield at the ECU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3636% → 34%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
63.7%
Javious Bond run for 3 yds to the ECU 16Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+1
63.8%
Javious Bond run for 1 yd to the ECU 15Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
65.4%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jaylen JohnsonSimilar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
66.3%
Luke Larsen punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 17TD
10 plays · 53 yds · 4:1067% → 86%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
67.3%
Ari Broussard run for 11 yds to the ECU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
68.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Braylen Walker for 4 yds to the ECU 38Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
68.0%
Luke McCaffrey pass incomplete to Chase JenkinsSimilar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 6
OPP 38
-5
67.3%
PENALTY Rice Delay Of Game 5 yards from ECU38 to ECU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+16
65.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 16 yds to the ECU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
68.9%
Ari Broussard run for 5 yds to the ECU 32Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 15
OPP 32
-5
66.9%
PENALTY Rice False Start (Servin,Clay) 5 yards from ECU32 to ECU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 20
OPP 37
+33
66.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 33 yds to the ECU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
86.1%
Chase Jenkins run for 4 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18TD
20 plays · 80 yds · 7:1918% → 54%
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
82.4%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jaylen JohnsonSimilar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
82.7%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Shane CalhounSimilar
Q3 0:43
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+11
83.8%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 11 yds to the ECU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
81.7%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jsi HatfieldSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
82.6%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Shane CalhounSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+11
83.6%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 11 yds to the ECU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
80.9%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jsi HatfieldSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
81.4%
Alex Flinn run for 7 yds to the ECU 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+21
79.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 21 yds to the RICE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
77.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 9 yds to the RICE 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+6
76.9%
Alex Flinn run for 6 yds to the RICE 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
76.9%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 11 yds to the RICE 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
76.9%
Mason Garcia run for 1 yd to the RICE 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
76.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the RICE 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
79.5%
PENALTY Rice Pass Interference (Arkansas,DJ) 8 yards from Rice10 to Rice02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
76.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the RICE 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
76.9%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the RICE 1Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
46.5%
Rahjai Harris 1 Yd Run (Chase Sowell Pass to Chase Sowell for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 19TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0058% → 90%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
57.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 16 yds to the RICE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
61.6%
Luke McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the RICE 46Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+10
62.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 10 yds to the ECU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
89.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 44 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:4415% → 16%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
84.9%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jaylen JohnsonSimilar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+39
85.2%
Javious Bond run for 39 yds to the RICE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
79.9%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for no gain to the RICE 37Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
80.1%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 3 yds to the RICE 34Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+1
80.4%
Alex Flinn run for 1 yd to the RICE 33Similar
Q4 3:32
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+4
84.2%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 4 yds to the RICE 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:2692% → 92%
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
92.1%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Dean ConnorsSimilar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
91.4%
JT Daniels run for 5 yds to the RICE 34Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
93.2%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Rawson MacNeillSimilar
Q4 3:06
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
92.4%
Conor Hunt punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jsi Hatfield at the ECU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4911% → 10%
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
88.8%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Rahjai HarrisSimilar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
89.0%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the ECU 24Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
89.7%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Chase SowellSimilar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
90.0%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Shane CalhounSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 23MISSED FG
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:0695% → 98%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
95.1%
Ari Broussard run for 2 yds to the ECU 26Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+2
95.6%
Chase Jenkins run for 2 yds to the ECU 28Similar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 14
OPP 28
+4
95.7%
Dean Connors run for 4 yds to the ECU 24Similar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
97.7%
Tim Horn 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:477% → 6%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
92.6%
PENALTY Rice UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dumont,Lavel) 15 yards from ECU24 to ECU39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
91.6%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Shane CalhounSimilar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
92.0%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
50
0
90.5%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jhari PattersonSimilar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 10
50
0
91.0%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jhari PattersonSimilar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 10
50
-4
91.6%
Alex Flinn sacked by Demone Green for a loss of 4 yards to the ECU 46Similar
Q4 0:24
4TH & 14
OWN 46
-7
93.8%
Alex Flinn sacked by Chike Anigbogu for a loss of 7 yards to the ECU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
98.3%
Kneel down by Rice at ECU40 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:24
Rahjai Harris 1 Yd Run (Chase Sowell Pass to Chase Sowell for Two-Point Conversion)
-30.4
TD · Q4 6:24
JT Daniels pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 44 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
+27.2
TD · Q3 0:49
Chase Jenkins run for 4 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
+17
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com