2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadGWEB aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreGWEB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:02 · Austin Hendley punt for 47 yds, downed at the ECU 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:18: Alex Flinn pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 11 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad PAT MISSED) — ECU win probability +0.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:28: Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +4.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:03: Mason Garcia run for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +5.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
- SACK · Q2 8:33: Gino English sacked by Shavon Revel for a loss of 14 yards to the ECU 40 — ECU win probability +2.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: GWEB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:55: Kamarro Edmonds run for 11 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +2.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8GWEB made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 14:02GWEB 4th & 5 at GWEB 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snapGo for it19.2%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.2%average punt
- Q1 13:13ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snapGo for it80.5%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.6%average punt
- Q1 11:55GWEB 4th & 2 at GWEB 47, tiedClose callPunted · 19.8% before the snapGo for it19.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:34GWEB 4th & 6 at GWEB 30, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snapGo for it19.4%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.5%average punt
- Q1 7:34ECU 4th & 3 at GWEB 38, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call80.6%53% to convertField goal80.4%−0.238% to makePunt80.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 14:46ECU 4th & 18 at GWEB 27, up 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.7% before the snapGo for it83.6%−1.212% to convertField goalTheir call84.7%62% to makePunt82.1%−2.6average punt
- Q2 8:33GWEB 4th & 10 at ECU 26, down 23Close callWent for it · 7.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.6%−0.229% to convertField goal7.8%64% to makePunt6.7%−1.1average punt
- Q2 7:17ECU 4th & 16 at GWEB 33, up 23Close callPunted · 92.6% before the snapGo for it92.1%−0.416% to convertField goal92.5%49% to makePuntTheir call92.2%−0.3average punt
- Q2 3:11GWEB 4th & 10 at GWEB 30, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snapGo for it6.0%−0.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.3%average punt
- Q2 1:15ECU 4th & 10 at GWEB 35, up 23Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snapGo for it94.7%−0.130% to convertField goal94.7%45% to makePuntTheir call94.5%−0.2average punt
- Q3 12:40ECU 4th & 13 at ECU 34, up 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snapGo for it94.8%−0.720% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.5%average punt
- Q3 7:17ECU 4th & 11 at GWEB 28, up 23Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snapGo for it96.0%−0.226% to convertField goalTheir call96.2%60% to makePunt95.0%−1.3average punt
- Q3 5:34GWEB 4th & 11 at GWEB 27, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.525% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%average punt
- Q4 12:49GWEB 4th & 4 at ECU 42, down 30Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%48% to convertField goal0.1%−0.130% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 5:34GWEB 4th & 29 at GWEB 6, down 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.16% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 3:55ECU 4th & 10 at GWEB 41, up 37Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%30% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.132% to makePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 0:25GWEB 4th & 14 at GWEB 44, down 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 9:18ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call80.6%97% to makeGo for two80.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:28ECU Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.5%97% to makeGo for two82.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:03ECU Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.7%97% to makeGo for two90.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:55ECU Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:39ECU Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:05ECU Touchdown, up 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGWEBDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4821% → 21%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4979% → 79%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1821% → 21%
Q1 13:13
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+3
79.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Brennan McGuire for 3 yds to the GWEB 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4TD6 plays · 72 yds · 2:3779% → 80%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+35
78.8%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 35 yds to the GWEB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
79.1%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 12 yds to the GWEB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+7
79.1%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 7 yds to the GWEB 17Similar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
79.8%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 11 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3921% → 21%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6TD10 plays · 45 yds · 5:0680% → 84%
Q1 7:34
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+6
79.2%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 6 yds to the GWEB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
79.6%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 16 yds to the GWEB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
79.6%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Javious Bond for 3 yds to the GWEB 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 7FUMBLE5 plays · -2 yds · 1:4018% → 18%
Q1 2:24
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+1
82.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Maleek Huggins for 1 yd to the GWEB 23Similar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+8
82.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Maleek Huggins for 8 yds to the GWEB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-12
82.3%
Matthew Caldwell run for a loss of 12 yards to the GWEB 19 Matthew Caldwell fumbled, recovered by ECU J.D. LampleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8FG4 plays · -8 yds · 0:5884% → 84%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 17
0
84.2%
East Carolina Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Alex Flinn) to the GWEB 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9TD4 plays · 14 yds · 1:3985% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 10DOWNS9 plays · 25 yds · 4:3011% → 8%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
89.3%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Narii Gaither for 9 yds to the ECU 46Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+15
88.9%
East Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (Suirad Ware) to the ECU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
89.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Karim Page for no gain to the ECU 26Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
89.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Narii Gaither for no gain to the ECU 26Similar
Q2 8:33
4TH & 10
OPP 26
-14
91.8%
Gino English sacked by Shavon Revel for a loss of 14 yards to the ECU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 27 yds · 1:1693% → 93%
GWEBDrive 12FUMBLE5 plays · 18 yds · 1:238% → 8%
ECUDrive 13FUMBLE2 plays · 18 yds · 0:4294% → 94%
GWEBDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 2:018% → 7%
Q2 5:12
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+11
92.4%
CALDWELL, Matthew pass to the right incomplete intended for THOMAS, Hooper thrown to the GWU25. PENALTY ECU Pass Interference on WOOD, Julius enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the GWU30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:11
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
93.0%
Austin Hendley punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jsi Hatfield at the ECU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 30 yds · 1:5694% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · 9 yds · 1:157% → 6%
ECUDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 2:1495% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 18FUMBLE5 plays · 29 yds · 1:315% → 5%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
50
0
95.3%
Narii Gaither run for no gain to the GWEB 48 Narii Gaither fumbled, recovered by ECU Jeremy LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19MISSED FG9 plays · 20 yds · 3:5296% → 96%
Q3 11:09
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+4
96.0%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 4 yds to the GWEB 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 20PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:433% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21TD8 plays · 66 yds · 3:3997% → 100%
GWEBDrive 22DOWNS11 plays · 36 yds · 4:060% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23TD11 plays · 61 yds · 5:10100% → 100%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
99.8%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 12 yds to the GWEB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.8%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for no gain to the GWEB 35Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
99.8%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Kelan Robinson for 4 yds to the GWEB 31Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+9
99.8%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 9 yds to the GWEB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+10
99.8%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 10 yds to the GWEB 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
99.8%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 3 yds to the GWEB 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 24PUNT5 plays · -19 yds · 2:050% → 0%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-19
99.9%
run for a loss of 19 yards to the GWEB 6 Jaylen King fumbled, recovered by GWEB Jaylen KingSimilar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 29
OWN 6
0
100.0%
Jaylen King pass complete to Cole Hoskyns for no gain to the GWEB 6Similar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
99.9%
QB Keeper JETER, Raheim rush up the middle for a loss of 3 yards to the GWU44 (WRIGHT, Christian;HUNTER, Nicholas). PENALTY ECU Holding on EVERETT, Keziah enforced 10 yards from the GWU41 to the ECU49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
GWEBDrive 26FUMBLE1 play · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
100.0%
Nemo Squire run for a loss of 1 yard to the GWEB 9 Nemo Squire fumbled, recovered by ECU Jordan HuffSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 27TD2 plays · 9 yds · 0:36100% → 100%
GWEBDrive 28PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:390% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 29END OF GAME1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
100.0%
[NHSG] Kneel down by JETER, Raheim at ECU23 (team loss of 0), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:03
Mason Garcia run for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)
+5.6
TD · Q1 2:28
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)
+4.3
SACK · Q2 8:33
Gino English sacked by Shavon Revel for a loss of 14 yards to the ECU 40
+2.3