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ECU

East Carolina 28 at App State 43

APP
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q2Q3Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:40 · Luke Larsen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q2Q3Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Pregame prior+17.9Home team on offense+1.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:14: Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +13.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:15: Kanye Roberts run for 18 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — APP win probability +13.1 pts (now 63%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q3 10:03: Shavon Revel 57 Yd Fumble Return (Andrew Conrad Kick) — ECU win probability +16.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q3 8:18: Joey Aguilar pass complete to Milan Tucker for 35 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +16.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:57: Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the ECU 35 — APP win probability +11.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ECU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 3:49APP 4th & 5 at ECU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−1.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:40ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 26, down 3
    Close callPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:54APP 4th & 6 at ECU 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    68.9%−0.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:31ECU 4th & 8 at ECU 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:39APP 4th & 7 at APP 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:19ECU 4th & 10 at APP 36, down 3
    Close callPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    30.7%−<0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:09APP 4th & 15 at APP 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:22APP 4th & 9 at ECU 36, up 8
    Close callPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    81.8%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ECU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:39ECU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:25ECU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:14ECU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:15APP Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    55.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:03ECU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:18APP Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:44APP Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APPDrive 1TD
2 plays · 37 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
70.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 16 yds to the ECU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+3
69.6%
Kanye Roberts run for 3 yds to the ECU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2END OF HALF TD
9 plays · 9 yds · 2:5577% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.7%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the APP 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
76.5%
East Carolina Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Mike Edwards III) to the APP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
78.2%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the APP 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+8
78.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 8 yds to the ECU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
78.6%
Joey Aguilar sacked by Mike Edwards III for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
50
+10
77.3%
Nate Noel run for 10 yds to the ECU 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+6
78.0%
Kanye Roberts run for 6 yds to the ECU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
79.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 34 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:4627% → 27%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECU 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
72.9%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 3 yds to the ECU 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
72.9%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jsi Hatfield for a 1ST down Appalachian State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Shawn Collins) to the ECU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
72.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECU 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+39
72.9%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 39 yds to the APP 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
72.9%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 7 yds to the APP 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+5
72.9%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 5 yds to the APP 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
72.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 6 yds to the APP 7Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
72.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 7 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3574% → 72%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
73.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 7 yds to the APP 32Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+68
72.1%
Nate Noel run for 68 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:3928% → 28%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.8%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECU 28Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
71.6%
Alex Flinn pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 5:1172% → 72%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
71.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to David Larkins for 10 yds to the APP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
72.2%
Maquel Haywood run for 4 yds to the APP 45Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 14
OWN 45
+16
71.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 16 yds to the ECU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
72.4%
Maquel Haywood run for 1 yd to the ECU 38Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+7
72.4%
Nate Noel run for 7 yds to the ECU 31Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+7
72.3%
Nate Noel run for 7 yds to the ECU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
72.6%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the ECU 24Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
72.5%
Joey Aguilar run for 1 yd to the ECU 23Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+4
72.3%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the ECU 19Similar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+36
72.4%
Michael Hughes 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5728% → 28%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
72.2%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 1 yd to the ECU 20Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+1
72.2%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Marlon Gunn Jr. for 1 yd to the ECU 21Similar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+5
72.5%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 5 yds to the ECU 26Similar
Q1 1:40
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
72.3%
Luke Larsen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8DOWNS
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:4672% → 72%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+28
71.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 28 yds to the ECU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
72.7%
Joey Aguilar run for 6 yds to the ECU 37Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
72.7%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Makai JacksonSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+2
72.5%
Maquel Haywood run for 2 yds to the ECU 39Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
71.7%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dashaun DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:2329% → 28%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
70.7%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Hampton Ergle) to the ECU 34Similar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+1
71.5%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 1 yd to the ECU 33Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 16
OWN 33
-5
71.6%
East Carolina Penalty, Delay Of Game (Hampton Ergle) to the ECU 28Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 21
OWN 28
+2
71.7%
Javious Bond run for 2 yds to the ECU 30Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 19
OWN 30
+11
72.0%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Javious Bond for 11 yds to the ECU 41Similar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
71.6%
Luke Larsen punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5271% → 70%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
71.0%
Maquel Haywood run for 3 yds to the APP 15Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
71.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dalton StromanSimilar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 7
OWN 15
0
70.4%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Michael DipasqualeSimilar
Q2 11:39
4TH & 7
OWN 15
+11
69.9%
Mitchell Lake punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECU 44 , Jsi Hatfield returns for 11 yds to the ECU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:2030% → 29%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
69.9%
Alex Flinn run for 1 yd to the ECU 45Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+19
70.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 19 yds to the APP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
69.5%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jaylen JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
69.5%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jhari PattersonSimilar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
69.9%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Javious BondSimilar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
71.0%
Luke Larsen punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12INT TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5471% → 63%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
70.6%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the APP 5Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 6
OWN 5
0
70.5%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Christan HornSimilar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 6
OWN 5
-8
64.2%
Antoine Jackson 8 Yd Interception Return (Andrew Conrad Kick)Similar
Q2 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
62.7%
East Carolina Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jonathan Jones) to the APP 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 2:1665% → 62%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
65.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 15 yds to the APP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
66.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Eli WilsonSimilar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-15
65.9%
Appalachian State Penalty, Chop Block (-15 Yards) to the APP 25Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 25
OWN 25
0
65.0%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the APP 25Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 25
OWN 25
+10
64.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Nate Noel for 10 yds to the APP 35Similar
Q2 7:09
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
62.2%
Mitchell Lake punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jsi Hatfield at the ECU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14TD
12 plays · 57 yds · 4:5537% → 53%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
63.0%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 1 yd to the ECU 24Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+4
63.2%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 4 yds to the ECU 28Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 5
OWN 28
-10
62.9%
East Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ECU 18Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 15
OWN 18
+16
63.9%
Alex Flinn run for 16 yds to the ECU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
62.3%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Brock Spalding for 7 yds to the ECU 41Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+28
61.2%
Javious Bond run for 28 yds to the APP 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
60.5%
East Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the APP 41Similar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 20
OPP 41
+7
61.1%
Alex Flinn run for 7 yds to the APP 34Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+30
60.7%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 30 yds to the APP 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
60.4%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Brock SpaldingSimilar
Q2 2:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
46.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15TD
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:4350% → 63%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
50.3%
Kanye Roberts run for 9 yds to the ECU 37Similar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
63.4%
Kanye Roberts run for 18 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16Uncategorized
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:0844% → 49%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
55.8%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for no gain to the ECU 32Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+13
55.2%
Mason Garcia run for 13 yds to the ECU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
53.1%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for 3 yds to the ECU 48Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-7
50.6%
Mason Garcia sacked by Markus Clark for a loss of 7 yards to the ECU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17FUMBLE RETURN TD
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:0232% → 44%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
68.1%
Shotgun Flinn,Alex pass complete short left to Sowell,Chase for 0 yards to the ECU25 (Funderburk,Tyrek) PENALTY ECU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Pearce,Richard) 5 yards from ECU25 to ECU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
68.4%
Alex Flinn run for 8 yds to the ECU 28Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
67.6%
Alex Flinn pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
71.6%
Kanye Roberts run for 4 yds to the ECU 45Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+57
55.6%
Shavon Revel 57 Yd Fumble Return (Andrew Conrad Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18FUMBLE
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q3 8:18
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+35
72.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Milan Tucker for 35 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 0:0068% → 82%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
68.4%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Makai JacksonSimilar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+26
68.2%
Nate Noel run for 26 yds to the APP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
71.2%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dalton StromanSimilar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+17
70.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 17 yds to the ECU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
82.3%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the ECU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · -15 yds · 1:5679% → 82%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.3%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 1 yd to the ECU 24Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-14
79.5%
East Carolina Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-14 Yards) to the ECU 10Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 25
OWN 10
0
80.6%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Shane CalhounSimilar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 25
OWN 10
+23
81.4%
Luke Larsen punt for 50 yds , Kaedin Robinson returns for 23 yds to the ECU 37Similar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
83.3%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the ECU 36Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 9
OPP 36
0
83.2%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dashaun DavisSimilar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
82.4%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Christan HornSimilar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 9
OPP 36
0
82.3%
Mitchell Lake punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Jsi Hatfield at the ECU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 3:2220% → 18%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
80.5%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 7 yds to the ECU 19Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+5
80.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the ECU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
80.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECU 23Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+14
80.6%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 14 yds to the ECU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
79.1%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 3 yds to the ECU 40Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
78.5%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jsi HatfieldSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
82.5%
Alex Flinn pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22INT TD
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:5187% → 87%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
86.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for no gain to the ECU 19Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+1
86.6%
Joey Aguilar run for 1 yd to the ECU 18Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+17
85.7%
Nate Noel run for 17 yds to the ECU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.6%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the ECU 1Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.6%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to David LarkinsSimilar
Q3 0:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.8%
Joey Aguilar run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23PUNT TD
18 plays · 5 yds · 9:1684% → 97%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
83.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECU 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+4
83.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECU 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+6
83.7%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 6 yds to the ECU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
82.7%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Javious Bond for no gain to the ECU 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
83.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECU 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-11
83.0%
Alex Flinn sacked by Andrew Parker Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the ECU 33Similar
Q4 11:28
4TH & 18
OWN 33
0
86.5%
Luke Larsen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 30Similar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
86.5%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the APP 35Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+16
86.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Milan Tucker for 16 yds to the ECU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
88.4%
PENALTY APP False Start (Murphy,Jack) 5 yards from ECU49 to APP46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+3
87.8%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the APP 49Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+5
87.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Nate Noel for 5 yds to the ECU 46Similar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+15
87.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to David Larkins for 15 yds to the ECU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
88.8%
Nate Noel run for 12 yds to the ECU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
88.8%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the ECU 17Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+9
88.8%
Nate Noel run for 9 yds to the ECU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
88.8%
Maquel Haywood run for 2 yds to the ECU 6Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to David Larkins for 6 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24DOWNS
21 plays · 16 yds · 5:4496% → 99%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
95.5%
Alex Flinn run for 14 yds to the ECU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
95.0%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jaylen JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+17
95.0%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 17 yds to the APP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
94.8%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Chase SowellSimilar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
96.0%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jhari PattersonSimilar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-15
96.1%
East Carolina Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-15 Yards) to the ECU 41Similar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 25
OWN 41
0
96.8%
Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jaylen JohnsonSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
98.6%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the ECU 37Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
98.7%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the ECU 37Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+8
98.9%
Joey Aguilar run for 8 yds to the ECU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
98.9%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the ECU 25Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+4
99.2%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the ECU 21Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+2
99.2%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the ECU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
99.2%
J. Aguilar takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 12
OPP 21
-5
99.1%
J. Aguilar takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 17
OPP 26
-2
99.4%
J. Aguilar takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:18
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Milan Tucker for 35 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)
+16.9
TD · Q3 10:03
Shavon Revel 57 Yd Fumble Return (Andrew Conrad Kick)
-16
TD · Q2 2:14
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)
-13.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com