Try the model
CLT

Charlotte 14 at South Florida 48

USF
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreCLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+5.1USF 92.0%John Cannon 22 yd FG GOODAWAY 14 - HOME 31 · Q3 9:09
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:09 · John Cannon 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 105Home team on offense+19.4Pregame prior+10.0Score differential+9.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.7Garbage-time factor+9.1Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:07: Sean Atkins pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 62 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +10.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:52: Byrum Brown pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 4 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +5.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:34: Byrum Brown pass complete to Jaden Alexis for 60 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +8.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:09: Steven Johnson pass complete to Jairus Mack for 47 yds for a TD (Jake Larson KICK) — CLT win probability +8.0 pts (now 15%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 9:09: John Cannon 22 yd FG GOOD — USF win probability +5.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 3 of 6CLT made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 5:20USF 4th & 1 at CLT 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    63.4%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    61.4%−2.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:33CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.7%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:55CLT 4th & 11 at CLT 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:53CLT 4th & 17 at USF 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    33.9%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:45USF 4th & 7 at CLT 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    65.8%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:23CLT 4th & 4 at CLT 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:49USF 4th & 10 at CLT 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:15CLT 4th & 8 at CLT 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:09USF 4th & 3 at CLT 4, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.1%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    79.4%−7.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:52CLT 4th & 6 at USF 41, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%−0.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:08USF 4th & 11 at CLT 13, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    95.6%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:00CLT 4th & 15 at CLT 29, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:20CLT 4th & 10 at USF 10, down 34
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:21USF 4th & 3 at USF 17, up 34
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:06CLT 4th & 2 at USF 43, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CLT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:13CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:27USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:07USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:52USF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:34USF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:09CLT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:54USF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:45USF Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CLTDrive 1TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 4:4126% → 29%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
74.3%
Joachim Bangda run for 2 yds to the CLT 31Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+20
74.3%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 20 yds to the USF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
74.3%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Joey Bearns III for 3 yds to the USF 46Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+3
74.3%
Joachim Bangda run for 3 yds to the USF 43Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+14
74.3%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Joachim Bangda for 14 yds to the USF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
74.3%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jairus Mack for 10 yds to the USF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
74.3%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 18 yds to the USF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
74.3%
Hahsaun Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 2Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
71.4%
Joachim Bangda run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Larson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2DOWNS
15 plays · 39 yds · 4:5372% → 69%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
72.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jaden Alexis for 5 yds to the CLT 35Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+9
72.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Yusuf Terry for 9 yds to the CLT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
72.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 6 yds to the CLT 20Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 4
OPP 20
0
72.5%
Byrum Brown run for no gain to the CLT 20Similar
Q1 10:13
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+5
72.3%
Byrum Brown run for 5 yds to the CLT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
72.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for no gain to the CLT 15Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-2
72.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the CLT 17Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 12
OPP 17
-5
71.0%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (Sean Atkins) to the CLT 22Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 17
OPP 22
+21
70.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Yusuf Terry for 21 yds to the CLT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
71.3%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 3 yards to the CLT 4Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
71.3%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
71.0%
Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the CLT 1Similar
Q1 5:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
69.2%
Nay'Quan Wright pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 3DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4731% → 32%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
68.6%
Trexler Ivey run for 3 yds to the CLT 4Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+3
68.7%
Joachim Bangda run for 3 yds to the CLT 7Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+3
68.9%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Colin Weber for 3 yds to the CLT 10Similar
Q1 3:33
4TH & 1
OWN 10
0
67.9%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4TD
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 3:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
72.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 10 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2529% → 29%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
71.2%
Joachim Bangda run for a loss of 1 yard to the CLT 24Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
71.3%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
71.7%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Malik Baker II for no gain to the CLT 24Similar
Q1 1:55
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
71.4%
Grant Gonya punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:2272% → 72%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
72.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 3 yds to the USF 39Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
72.3%
Byrum Brown pass intercepted Dontez Fagan return for no gain to the USF 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:4031% → 30%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
69.0%
Duane Thomas Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the USF 41Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 15
OPP 41
0
69.6%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Hahsaun Wilson for no gain to the USF 41Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 41
+3
69.6%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the USF 38Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 38
-5
70.1%
Charlotte Penalty, Delay Of Game (Dontae Balfour) to the USF 43Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 17
OPP 43
0
70.2%
Grant Gonya punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 42 yds · 2:5371% → 71%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
71.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 4 yds to the USF 18Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+5
71.0%
Kelley Joiner run for 5 yds to the USF 23Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+1
70.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Weston Wolff for 1 yd to the USF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
71.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 11 yds to the USF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
71.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 18 yds to the CLT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
72.6%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the CLT 46Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+2
72.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 2 yds to the CLT 44Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
72.2%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
70.8%
Andrew Stokes punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Henry Rutledge at the CLT 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9INT
6 plays · 37 yds · 3:1233% → 34%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
66.9%
Joachim Bangda run for 2 yds to the CLT 10Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+13
66.8%
Joachim Bangda run for 13 yds to the CLT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
66.6%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 7 yds to the CLT 30Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+16
65.9%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jairus Mack for 16 yds to the CLT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
65.2%
Hahsaun Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the CLT 45Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
66.5%
Trexler Ivey pass intercepted Logan Berryhill return for no gain to the USF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:2670% → 80%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
70.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 3 yds to the USF 38Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+62
80.4%
Sean Atkins pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 62 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4123% → 21%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
77.5%
Joachim Bangda run for no gain to the CLT 18Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
77.7%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+6
78.4%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Joachim Bangda for 6 yds to the CLT 24Similar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
78.7%
Grant Gonya punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 2:3480% → 81%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for no gain to the USF 25Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.9%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the USF 26Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
79.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 15 yds to the USF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
81.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 8 yds to the USF 49Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+4
82.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the CLT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
82.5%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
82.3%
Byrum Brown run for no gain to the CLT 47Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
81.5%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:49
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
80.7%
Andrew Stokes punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Henry Rutledge at the CLT 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3422% → 20%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
78.5%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the CLT 14Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+3
78.6%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the CLT 17Similar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
79.4%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:49
4TH & 3
OWN 17
-5
79.9%
Charlotte Penalty, False Start (Dontae Balfour) to the CLT 12Similar
Q2 2:15
4TH & 8
OWN 12
+4
79.9%
Grant Gonya punt for 48 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 4 yds to the USF 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 1:2383% → 85%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+21
82.7%
Michel Dukes run for 21 yds to the CLT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
83.1%
Michel Dukes run for 7 yds to the CLT 28Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+9
82.6%
Michel Dukes run for 9 yds to the CLT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
82.4%
Michel Dukes run for 6 yds to the CLT 13Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+7
82.3%
Michel Dukes run for 7 yds to the CLT 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
79.2%
Michel Dukes run for 2 yds to the CLT 4Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
84.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 4 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 15INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:5214% → 13%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.1%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Colin Weber for 2 yds to the CLT 27Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
86.1%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
86.9%
South Florida Penalty, Block below the waist (TEAM) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2686% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.1%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
86.1%
BROWN, Byrum pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BROWN, Khafre thrown to the CLT28. PENALTY CLT Pass Interference on BALFOUR, Dontae enforced 15 yards to the USF40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
94.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jaden Alexis for 60 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 17TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 2:187% → 15%
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
93.3%
Joachim Bangda run for a loss of 3 yards to the CLT 23Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+14
93.4%
Steven Johnson pass complete to Jairus Mack for 14 yds to the CLT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
93.0%
Joachim Bangda run for 6 yds to the CLT 43Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+10
92.7%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 10 yds to the USF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
84.7%
Steven Johnson pass complete to Jairus Mack for 47 yds for a TD (Jake Larson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:5288% → 92%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
87.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 16 yds to the CLT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
88.0%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
88.0%
WRIGHT, Nay'Quan rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the CLT10 (KNIGHT II, Demetrius;BALFOUR, Dontae). PENALTY USF Holding on WOLFF, Weston enforced 10 yards from the CLT11 to the CLT21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 20
OPP 21
0
88.0%
Nay'Quan Wright run for no gain to the CLT 21Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 20
OPP 21
+16
87.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 16 yds to the CLT 5Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+1
86.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the CLT 4Similar
Q3 9:09
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+22
92.0%
John Cannon 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 1:1493% → 97%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
92.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 9 yds to the CLT 45Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+9
93.8%
Kelley Joiner run for 9 yds to the CLT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
94.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 1 yd to the CLT 35Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+35
97.0%
Byrum Brown run for 35 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 11 yds · 3:555% → 3%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
95.2%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 6 yds to the CLT 39Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+6
95.2%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 6 yds to the CLT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
95.2%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the CLT 47Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+3
95.1%
Steven Johnson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 5
50
0
96.6%
Steven Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 5
50
+5
96.6%
JOHNSON, Steven pass to the left incomplete intended for MACK, Jairus thrown to the USF50. PENALTY USF Offsides on ROSS, Jonathan enforced 5 yards from the USF50 to the USF45 and results in a 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
96.5%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the USF 43Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+2
96.5%
Joachim Bangda run for 2 yds to the USF 41Similar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
96.6%
Steven Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:52
4TH & 6
OPP 41
-20
97.2%
Steven Johnson pass intercepted Mac Harris return for 20 yds to the CLT 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21FG
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:4499% → 100%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+32
99.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Weston Wolff for 32 yds to the CLT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
99.0%
Michel Dukes run for 2 yds to the CLT 10Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
99.0%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+5
99.0%
BROWN, Byrum pass to the left incomplete intended for BROWN-STEPHENS, Michael thrown to the CLT0. PENALTY CLT Offsides on ADAIR, Andrew enforced 5 yards from the CLT10 to the CLT5 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 3
OPP 5
-8
99.0%
Byrum Brown sacked by Demon Clowney for a loss of 8 yards to the CLT 13Similar
Q3 2:08
4TH & 11
OPP 13
+31
99.7%
John Cannon 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:000% → 0%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.7%
Henry Rutledge run for no gain to the CLT 34Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-15
99.7%
Charlotte Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Kevin Williams) to the CLT 23Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 21
OWN 23
+6
99.7%
Steven Johnson pass complete to Gus McGee for 6 yds to the CLT 29Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 15
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Grant Gonya punt for 31 yds, downed at the USF 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:15100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
99.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 16 yds to the CLT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
99.8%
Michel Dukes run for 9 yds to the CLT 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+14
99.8%
Michel Dukes run for 14 yds to the CLT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
99.8%
Michel Dukes run for 4 yds to the CLT 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+9
99.8%
Michel Dukes run for 9 yds to the CLT 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
99.8%
Michel Dukes run for 7 yds to the CLT 1Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 24DOWNS
14 plays · 49 yds · 6:240% → 0%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
99.8%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the CLT 42Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+6
99.8%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 6 yds to the CLT 48Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+2
99.8%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:44
4TH & 1
50
+5
99.9%
JOHNSON, Steven pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MACK, Jairus thrown to the USF17, clock 10:44. PENALTY USF Offsides on CHENEY, Rashad enforced 5 yards from the CLT50 to the USF45 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
99.9%
Joachim Bangda run for 5 yds to the USF 40Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+18
99.9%
Steven Johnson run for 18 yds to the USF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
99.8%
Joachim Bangda run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 23Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+15
99.9%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 15 yds to the USF 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
99.9%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the USF 7Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-12
99.9%
Steven Johnson sacked by Jamie Pettway for a loss of 12 yards to the USF 19Similar
Q4 7:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
+9
99.9%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Joachim Bangda for 9 yds to the USF 10Similar
Q4 6:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.9%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
99.9%
Michel Dukes run for 2 yds to the USF 12Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+5
99.9%
Michel Dukes run for 5 yds to the USF 17Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Michel Dukes run for no gain to the USF 17Similar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 3
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Andrew Stokes punt for 45 yds, downed at the CLT 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:150% → 0%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
99.9%
Joachim Bangda run for 3 yds to the CLT 41Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+8
99.9%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Randy Fields Jr. for 8 yds to the CLT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
99.9%
Joachim Bangda run for 8 yds to the USF 43Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 2
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Joachim Bangda run for no gain to the USF 43Similar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+1
100.0%
Joachim Bangda run for 1 yd to the USF 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · 8 yds · 2:06100% → 100%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
100.0%
Yasias Young run for 2 yds to the USF 44Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+2
100.0%
Bryce Archie run for 2 yds to the USF 46Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+4
100.0%
Yasias Young run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:07
Sean Atkins pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 62 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
+10.1
TD · Q3 14:34
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jaden Alexis for 60 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
+8.2
TD · Q3 12:09
Steven Johnson pass complete to Jairus Mack for 47 yds for a TD (Jake Larson KICK)
-8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com