Try the model
FAU

Florida Atlantic 38 at Charlotte 16

CLT
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2023 · Jerry Richardson Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreFAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:15 · Jalon Jones run for 14 yds to the CLT 46 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+53.0+26.50−26.5−53.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Home team on offense−27.2Score differential−14.1Pregame prior−2.9Garbage-time factor−11.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:15: Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 21 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK) — FAU win probability +5.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:03: Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 26 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK) — FAU win probability +11.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:46: Michael Johnson Jr. 19 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick) — FAU win probability +9.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:36: Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jake Clemons for 10 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK) — CLT win probability +5.0 pts (now 21%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 1:38: Carter Davis 38 yd FG GOOD — FAU win probability +6.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 13 of 15FAU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00CLT 4th & 1 at FAU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    41.7%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:46CLT 4th & 7 at FAU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:53CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.7%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:44CLT 4th & 3 at FAU 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    43.1%−1.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:54CLT 4th & 1 at FAU 46, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    33.1%−2.7
    23% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:20CLT 4th & 8 at FAU 26, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−3.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:04FAU 4th & 7 at FAU 28, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:19CLT 4th & 5 at FAU 48, down 8
    Close callPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:19FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 34, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.7%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:10CLT 4th & 8 at CLT 27, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:34FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 12, up 15
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:21CLT 4th & 13 at FAU 26, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−1.8
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−5.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:38FAU 4th & 11 at CLT 20, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−8.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:09CLT 4th & 15 at CLT 30, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−2.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:10FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 46, up 15
    Close callPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:41CLT 4th & 12 at CLT 10, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−1.0
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:15CLT 4th & 3 at CLT 32, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.6%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:15CLT 4th & 6 at midfield, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.4%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:15CLT 4th & 20 at CLT 48, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%−0.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:15CLT 4th & 3 at FAU 29, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1FAU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 6:53FAU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:15FAU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:03FAU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:46FAU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:36CLT Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:12FAU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CLTDrive 1FG
14 plays · 58 yds · 6:1433% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.4%
Joey Bearns III run for 5 yds to the CLT 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
33.4%
Jalon Jones run for no gain to the CLT 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
33.4%
Jalon Jones run for 10 yds to the CLT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
33.4%
Shadrick Byrd run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
33.4%
Shadrick Byrd run for 4 yds to the FAU 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+15
33.4%
BYRD, Shadrick rush to the right for a loss of 11 yards to the CLT43, End of Play. PENALTY FAU Targeting on WESTER, Jaylen enforced 15 yards from the FAU46 to the FAU31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
33.4%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+9
33.4%
Shadrick Byrd run for 9 yds to the FAU 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 22
0
33.4%
Shadrick Byrd run for no gain to the FAU 22Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+2
33.4%
Terron Kellman run for 2 yds to the FAU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
33.4%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
33.4%
Terron Kellman run for 3 yds to the FAU 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
33.4%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:46
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+36
36.8%
Kyle Cunanan 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5363% → 66%
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
36.8%
Charlotte Penalty, Roughing the Passer on HANDY, Stone enforced (15 Yards) to the CLT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
36.1%
Larry McCammon run for 2 yds to the CLT 41Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+10
36.1%
Larry McCammon run for 10 yds to the CLT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
35.9%
RICHARDSON, Daniel pass to the right complete for 2 yards to MCCAMMON, Larry caught at the CLT35 and advanced to the CLT29 (KNIGHT II, Demetrius). PENALTY CLT Face mask on HILL-GREEN, Nikhai enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards from the CLT29 to the CLT15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
35.9%
Charlotte Penalty, Personal Foul (Al-Ma'hi Ali) to the CLT 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
34.4%
Zeke Moore 3 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Carter Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 3DOWNS
12 plays · 34 yds · 6:0935% → 37%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
35.3%
Terron Kellman run for 3 yds to the CLT 28Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
35.4%
Terron Kellman run for 4 yds to the CLT 32Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
35.2%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Joey Bearns III for 7 yds to the CLT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
35.7%
Terron Kellman run for a loss of 1 yard to the CLT 38Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+8
35.5%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Colin Weber for 8 yds to the CLT 46Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+2
35.9%
Jalon Jones run for 2 yds to the CLT 48Similar
Q1 6:53
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+2
35.7%
Terron Kellman run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
50
0
36.2%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 10
50
-6
36.1%
Jairus Mack run for a loss of 6 yards to the CLT 44Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 16
OWN 44
+13
36.1%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Jairus Mack for 13 yds to the FAU 43Similar
Q1 0:44
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+2
37.1%
Joachim Bangda run for 2 yds to the FAU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 1:4565% → 71%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
35.4%
Larry McCammon run for 6 yds to the FAU 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+16
35.4%
Larry McCammon run for 16 yds to the CLT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
35.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Bj Alexander for 12 yds to the CLT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
34.5%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 4 yds to the CLT 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
34.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+21
29.0%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 21 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 5FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 4:5531% → 31%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
30.5%
Terron Kellman run for 7 yds to the CLT 32Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+13
31.0%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Jack Hestera for 13 yds to the CLT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
31.5%
Charlotte Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Yards) to the CLT 36Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 19
OWN 36
+7
30.5%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Bryce Kennon for 7 yds to the CLT 43Similar
Q2 10:29
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+11
30.1%
Jalon Jones run for 11 yds to the FAU 46Similar
Q2 9:54
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+18
29.7%
Jalon Jones run for 18 yds to the FAU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
31.2%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
31.1%
Terron Kellman run for 3 yds to the FAU 25Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 7
OPP 25
-1
30.5%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Colin Weber for a loss of 1 yard to the FAU 26Similar
Q2 8:20
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+44
31.3%
Kyle Cunanan 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1669% → 69%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
30.6%
Larry McCammon run for 1 yd to the FAU 26Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
30.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 2 yds to the FAU 28Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
31.1%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
30.7%
Logan Lupo punt for 49 yds , returns for no gain to the CLT 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:4530% → 30%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
30.0%
Terron Kellman run for 11 yds to the CLT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
31.3%
Terron Kellman run for 1 yd to the CLT 48Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+4
31.0%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Jack Hestera for 4 yds to the FAU 48Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
31.5%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Jack Hestera for no gain to the FAU 48Similar
Q2 4:19
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
29.8%
Grant Gonya punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8TD
11 plays · 94 yds · 3:1671% → 84%
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
29.3%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the FAU 9Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+16
29.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Bj Alexander for 16 yds to the FAU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
28.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 3 yds to the FAU 28Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
28.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Tony Johnson for 6 yds to the FAU 34Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
28.1%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:19
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
28.8%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the FAU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
27.7%
Florida Atlantic Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FAU 31Similar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+5
28.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 5 yds to the FAU 36Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
28.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 8 yds to the FAU 44Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+30
27.5%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 30 yds to the CLT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
16.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 26 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:5322% → 21%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
21.6%
Charlotte Penalty, Delay Of Game (Trexler Ivey) to the CLT 20Similar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+7
21.9%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Colin Weber for 7 yds to the CLT 27Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
22.2%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Colin Weber for 5 yds to the CLT 32Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
22.7%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-5
22.1%
Charlotte Penalty, Delay Of Game (Grant Gonya) to the CLT 27Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
21.1%
Grant Gonya punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:1083% → 84%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
16.7%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
16.4%
Larry McCammon run for 3 yds to the FAU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 57 yds · 1:1481% → 91%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
18.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 15 yds to the CLT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+23
18.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 23 yds to the CLT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
9.4%
Michael Johnson Jr. 19 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:1016% → 21%
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
15.7%
KELLMAN, Terron rush up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the FAU38 (JEAN, Latrell). PENALTY CLT Holding on GREEN, Ja'Khi enforced 10 yards from the FAU45 to the CLT45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+18
14.8%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jake Clemons for 18 yds to the FAU 37Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+5
16.5%
Terron Kellman run for 5 yds to the FAU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
16.6%
Terron Kellman run for 1 yd to the FAU 31Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+4
16.5%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Terron Kellman for 4 yds to the FAU 27Similar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+17
16.5%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 17 yds to the FAU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
21.4%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jake Clemons for 10 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0283% → 84%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
16.6%
Larry McCammon run for 6 yds to the FAU 9Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 4
OWN 9
+3
16.7%
Larry McCammon run for 3 yds to the FAU 12Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 1
OWN 12
0
17.0%
Michael Johnson Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:34
4TH & 1
OWN 12
0
16.0%
Logan Lupo punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 3:1320% → 22%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
19.8%
Terron Kellman run for 15 yds to the FAU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
20.2%
Terron Kellman run for 4 yds to the FAU 34Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+11
21.0%
Henry Rutledge run for 11 yds to the FAU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
21.0%
Terron Kellman run for 3 yds to the FAU 20Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 7
OPP 20
-6
21.0%
Trexler Ivey sacked by Evan Anderson for a loss of 6 yards to the FAU 26Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 13
OPP 26
0
19.5%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 13
OPP 26
+44
21.9%
Kyle Cunanan 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 15FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 4:4381% → 88%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
19.4%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the FAU 26Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
19.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 7 yds to the FAU 33Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+13
19.6%
Michael Johnson Jr. run for 13 yds to the FAU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
17.9%
Daniel Richardson run for 6 yds to the CLT 48 for a 1ST down Charlotte Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Demetrius Knight II) to the CLT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
17.3%
Michael Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds to the CLT 24Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+5
17.2%
Kobe Lewis run for 5 yds to the CLT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-3
17.2%
Michael Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the CLT 22Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 13
OPP 22
+2
17.4%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the CLT 20Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 11
OPP 20
0
17.8%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:38
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+38
11.7%
Carter Davis 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 2:2914% → 12%
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.9%
Terron Kellman run for no gain to the CLT 25Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
13.7%
Terron Kellman run for 9 yds to the CLT 34Similar
Q3 1:38
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
14.6%
Terron Kellman run for 1 yd to the CLT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
13.8%
Trexler Ivey sacked by Latrell Jean for a loss of 7 yards to the CLT 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 28
+2
13.1%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Colin Weber for 2 yds to the CLT 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 30
0
12.8%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 15
OWN 30
+40
12.3%
Grant Gonya punt for 40 yds , returns for no gain to the FAU 39 , returns for no gain to the FAU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5992% → 92%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
8.4%
Larry McCammon run for 3 yds to the FAU 42Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-1
8.4%
Larry McCammon run for a loss of 1 yard to the FAU 41Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+5
8.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Zeke Moore for 5 yds to the FAU 46Similar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
8.3%
Logan Lupo punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Henry Rutledge at the CLT 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2911% → 9%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
11.0%
Jalon Jones run for 2 yds to the CLT 14Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 8
OWN 14
-4
11.0%
Jalon Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the CLT 10Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 12
OWN 10
0
10.8%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 12
OWN 10
0
9.1%
Grant Gonya punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:2694% → 94%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
6.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 13 yds to the CLT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
5.9%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-5
6.0%
Florida Atlantic Penalty, False Start (Federico Maranges) to the CLT 33Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 15
OPP 33
0
5.9%
Daniel Richardson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 20DOWNS
13 plays · 10 yds · 5:008% → 5%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
8.3%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Bryce Kennon for 5 yds to the CLT 30Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
8.8%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
8.6%
Trexler Ivey run for 2 yds to the CLT 32Similar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+14
8.6%
Jalon Jones run for 14 yds to the CLT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
9.3%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
9.2%
Henry Rutledge run for no gain to the CLT 46Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+4
8.9%
Jalon Jones run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 6
50
+8
9.0%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 8 yds to the FAU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-8
9.8%
Jalon Jones sacked by Decarius Hawthorne for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 18
50
0
8.6%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 18
50
-2
5.0%
Jalon Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the CLT 48Similar
Q4 5:15
4TH & 20
OWN 48
-13
4.9%
Micah Bowens sacked by Morven Joseph for a loss of 13 yards to the CLT 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 35 yds · 3:0396% → 99%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
3.7%
Larry McCammon run for 5 yds to the CLT 30Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+4
3.6%
Larry McCammon run for 4 yds to the CLT 26Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 1
OPP 26
0
3.7%
JOHNSON JR., Michael pass short up the middle incomplete intended for WESTER, LaJohntay thrown to the CLT23. PENALTY CLT Unnecessary Roughness on JACKSON, Miguel enforced half the distance from the goal, 13 yards from the CLT26 to the CLT13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
3.6%
Larry McCammon run for 3 yds to the CLT 10Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+2
3.6%
Larry McCammon run for 2 yds to the CLT 8Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
3.7%
RICHARDSON, Daniel pass to the right incomplete intended for BOATWRIGHT, Carter thrown to the CLT0. PENALTY CLT Holding on FAGAN, Dontez enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the CLT8 to the CLT4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.6%
Larry McCammon run for 4 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 22END OF GAME
12 plays · 76 yds · 2:121% → 1%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
0.9%
Terron Kellman run for 8 yds to the CLT 29Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+3
0.9%
Dom Shoffner pass complete to Colin Weber for 3 yds to the CLT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
0.9%
Terron Kellman run for 2 yds to the CLT 34Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+10
0.9%
Dom Shoffner run for 10 yds to the CLT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
0.9%
Dom Shoffner pass complete to Andrew Jacobs for 20 yds to the FAU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
1.0%
Dom Shoffner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
1.0%
Dom Shoffner pass complete to Andrew Jacobs for 7 yds to the FAU 29Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 3
OPP 29
0
0.9%
Joachim Bangda run for no gain to the FAU 29Similar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+7
0.7%
Dom Shoffner pass complete to Roger Walters for 7 yds to the FAU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
0.8%
Dom Shoffner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+19
0.7%
Dom Shoffner run for 19 yds to the FAU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:03
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 26 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
-11.2
TD · Q3 13:46
Michael Johnson Jr. 19 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)
-9
FG · Q3 1:38
Carter Davis 38 yd FG GOOD
-6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com