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NAVY

Navy 14 at Charlotte 0

CLT
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · Jerry Richardson Stadium
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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:31 · Grant Gonya punt for 48 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 76Home team on offense+1.2Pregame prior−7.1Score differential−0.7Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:30: Braxton Woodson pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 69 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +10.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:21: Shadrick Byrd run for 6 yds to the NAVY 34 — CLT win probability +6.7 pts (now 31%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:11: Navy Penalty, Illegal Snap on SELF, Brent enforced (Brent Self) to the NAVY 38 — NAVY win probability +7.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:02: Alex Tecza run for 62 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +12.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:38: Trexler Ivey pass incomplete — NAVY win probability +5.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 11 of 11NAVY made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 13:44CLT 4th & 15 at CLT 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:44NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:23NAVY 4th & 17 at NAVY 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:12CLT 4th & 6 at CLT 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:14NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:37CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.7%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:17CLT 4th & 8 at CLT 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:52NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:44CLT 4th & 6 at NAVY 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:42NAVY 4th & 13 at NAVY 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−1.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:31CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:01NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:31CLT 4th & 12 at NAVY 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:03NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:41NAVY 4th & 13 at CLT 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    66.3%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:07CLT 4th & 8 at CLT 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−2.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:35NAVY 4th & 8 at CLT 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    69.5%−1.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q3 3:56CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  19. Q3 2:20NAVY 4th & 15 at NAVY 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−3.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  20. Q3 1:05CLT 4th & 14 at CLT 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−4.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  21. Q4 14:16NAVY 4th & 18 at NAVY 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−4.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  22. Q4 7:38CLT 4th & 1 at NAVY 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.0%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    8.9%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−5.8
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:15NAVY 4th & 5 at CLT 46, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    96.2%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q3 12:30NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 11:02NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CLTDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1636% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
36.3%
Shadrick Byrd run for 4 yds to the CLT 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
36.3%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-9
36.3%
Trexler Ivey sacked by Luke Pirris for a loss of 9 yards to the CLT 20Similar
Q1 13:44
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
36.6%
Grant Gonya punt for 40 yds, downed at the NAVY 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 3 yds · 4:2163% → 61%
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
36.7%
Amin Hassan run for no gain to the NAVY 40Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
36.7%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 42Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+7
36.7%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 7 yds to the NAVY 49Similar
Q1 13:44
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+1
36.7%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
50
-5
36.6%
Navy Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 45Similar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+4
36.7%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the NAVY 49Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-1
36.7%
Eli Heidenreich run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 48Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 12
OWN 48
-5
36.7%
Tai Lavatai sacked by Miguel Jackson for a loss of 5 yards to the NAVY 43Similar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 17
OWN 43
0
38.7%
Riley Riethman punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1138% → 39%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
38.4%
Shadrick Byrd run for 1 yd to the CLT 7Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+11
38.3%
Shadrick Byrd run for 11 yds to the CLT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
38.5%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+4
38.4%
Shadrick Byrd run for 4 yds to the CLT 22Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 6
OWN 22
0
38.2%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 6
OWN 22
0
38.5%
Grant Gonya punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5861% → 60%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
38.7%
Braxton Woodson run for 5 yds to the NAVY 42Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-5
38.3%
run for a loss of 5 yards to the NAVY 37Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
39.1%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Alex Tecza for no gain to the NAVY 37Similar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
40.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 12 yds · 3:5740% → 41%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
39.8%
Shadrick Byrd run for 3 yds to the CLT 27Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-4
39.9%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the CLT 23Similar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+10
39.6%
Shadrick Byrd run for 10 yds to the CLT 33Similar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+1
39.8%
Shadrick Byrd run for 1 yd to the CLT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
40.4%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
40.3%
Terron Kellman run for 2 yds to the CLT 36Similar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+5
40.1%
Terron Kellman run for 5 yds to the CLT 41Similar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 3
OWN 41
-5
40.0%
Charlotte Penalty, False Start (Jairus Mack) to the CLT 36Similar
Q1 1:17
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
40.6%
Grant Gonya punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2560% → 59%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
40.2%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+4
40.0%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 4 yds to the NAVY 36Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
40.2%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the NAVY 36Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
41.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 59 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7PUNT
12 plays · 50 yds · 5:0841% → 44%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
41.4%
Shadrick Byrd run for 4 yds to the CLT 7Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+9
41.3%
Shadrick Byrd run for 9 yds to the CLT 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
41.8%
Shadrick Byrd run for 11 yds to the CLT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
42.0%
Shadrick Byrd run for 5 yds to the CLT 32Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+7
42.4%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Colin Weber for 7 yds to the CLT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-6
42.7%
Trexler Ivey sacked by Donald Berniard Jr. and Will Harbour for a loss of 6 yards to the CLT 33Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 16
OWN 33
+16
41.7%
Terron Kellman run for 16 yds to the CLT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
43.4%
Terron Kellman run for no gain to the CLT 49Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
43.0%
Shadrick Byrd run for 9 yds to the NAVY 42Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 1
OPP 42
0
43.3%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 1
OPP 42
-5
42.4%
Charlotte Penalty, Offsides (Wayne Jones) to the NAVY 47Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
44.1%
Grant Gonya punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 4:0258% → 56%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
42.3%
Braxton Woodson run for 6 yds to the NAVY 16Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+4
42.3%
Brandon Chatman run for 4 yds to the NAVY 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
42.2%
Brandon Chatman run for no gain to the NAVY 20Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
42.3%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+22
43.2%
Braxton Woodson run for 22 yds to the NAVY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
40.5%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 43Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-4
40.6%
Eli Heidenreich run for a loss of 4 yards to the NAVY 39Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 13
OWN 39
0
42.4%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:42
4TH & 13
OWN 39
0
43.7%
Riley Riethman punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1145% → 44%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
45.2%
Shadrick Byrd run for 5 yds to the CLT 25Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
45.5%
Shadrick Byrd run for no gain to the CLT 25Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
44.4%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:31
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
43.7%
Grant Gonya punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3059% → 56%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
41.4%
Braxton Woodson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 34Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+2
42.7%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the NAVY 36Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
43.1%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:01
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
44.4%
Riley Riethman punt for 35 yds, downed at the CLT 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 2:3047% → 44%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
46.6%
Terron Kellman run for a loss of 1 yard to the CLT 28Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+3
46.1%
Terron Kellman run for 3 yds to the CLT 31Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+8
45.4%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jairus Mack for 8 yds to the CLT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
47.8%
Terron Kellman run for 15 yds to the NAVY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
49.6%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
49.3%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+3
48.4%
Shadrick Byrd run for 3 yds to the NAVY 43Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 7
OPP 43
-5
47.6%
Charlotte Penalty, Delay Of Game (Grant Gonya) to the NAVY 48Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 12
OPP 48
0
45.9%
Grant Gonya punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
43.6%
Navy Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:2856% → 54%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+12
43.8%
Braxton Woodson run for 12 yds to the NAVY 27Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
42.6%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
43.7%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
45.7%
Riley Riethman punt for 54 yds, downed at the CLT 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
47.3%
[NHSG] Kneel down by CLT at CLT17 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:3056% → 68%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.0%
Brandon Chatman run for 3 yds to the NAVY 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
43.6%
Braxton Woodson run for 7 yds to the NAVY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
43.3%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-6
43.0%
Braxton Woodson sacked by Nikhai Hill-Green for a loss of 6 yards to the NAVY 31Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+69
32.2%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 69 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 15INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:2432% → 31%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
32.2%
Terron Kellman run for 4 yds to the CLT 21Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+2
32.2%
Terron Kellman run for 2 yds to the CLT 23Similar
Q3 11:06
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
31.1%
Trexler Ivey pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2572% → 69%
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
28.0%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-10
28.0%
CHATMAN, Brandon rush to the right for a gain of 18 yards to the CLT18 (HOWARD, Kameron), out of bounds. PENALTY USN Holding on UMBARGER, Jayden enforced 10 yards from the CLT36 to the CLT46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 20
OPP 46
+7
28.9%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Camari Williams for 7 yds to the CLT 39Similar
Q3 11:06
3RD & 13
OPP 39
0
29.4%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:41
4TH & 13
OPP 39
0
31.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 29 yds, downed at the CLT 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3432% → 30%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
31.7%
Shadrick Byrd run for 1 yd to the CLT 11Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+1
31.7%
Shadrick Byrd run for 1 yd to the CLT 12Similar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 8
OWN 12
0
30.5%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 8
OWN 12
0
29.7%
Grant Gonya punt for 42 yds , returns for no gain to the CLT 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:3273% → 72%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
26.6%
Brandon Chatman run for a loss of 2 yards to the CLT 45Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+2
26.9%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Camari Williams for 2 yds to the CLT 43Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-5
27.1%
Navy Penalty, False Start (Brent Self) to the CLT 48Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 15
OPP 48
+7
28.7%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Daba Fofana for 7 yds to the CLT 41Similar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
27.7%
Riley Riethman punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3932% → 29%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
31.5%
Shadrick Byrd run for 3 yds to the CLT 23Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
31.6%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Colin Weber for 2 yds to the CLT 25Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
30.7%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
28.8%
Grant Gonya punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:3674% → 71%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
25.7%
Braxton Woodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 40Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
26.4%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 11
OWN 40
-4
27.3%
Braxton Woodson sacked by Demon Clowney for a loss of 4 yards to the NAVY 36Similar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 15
OWN 36
0
28.8%
Riley Riethman punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1531% → 28%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
31.4%
Terron Kellman run for no gain to the CLT 30Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
30.9%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-5
29.4%
Charlotte Penalty, Delay Of Game (Trexler Ivey) to the CLT 25Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 15
OWN 25
+1
29.1%
Shadrick Byrd run for 1 yd to the CLT 26Similar
Q3 1:05
4TH & 14
OWN 26
0
28.1%
Grant Gonya punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:4973% → 74%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+22
26.9%
Braxton Woodson run for 22 yds to the NAVY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
24.4%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-1
24.1%
Braxton Woodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 40
-7
25.2%
run for a loss of 7 yards to the NAVY 33Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 18
OWN 33
0
25.9%
Riley Riethman punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 23FUMBLE
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:0529% → 20%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
28.8%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-1
25.9%
Jalon Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the CLT 26Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+34
24.6%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jairus Mack for 34 yds to the NAVY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
31.3%
Shadrick Byrd run for 6 yds to the NAVY 34Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 4
OPP 34
-9
33.1%
Trexler Ivey sacked by Justin Reed for a loss of 9 yards to the NAVY 43Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 13
OPP 43
0
27.4%
Trexler Ivey run for no gain to the NAVY 43 Trexler Ivey fumbled, recovered by NAVY Justin ReedSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
19.7%
Navy Penalty, Illegal Snap on SELF, Brent enforced (Brent Self) to the NAVY 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 24TD
1 play · 57 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 11:02
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+62
7.3%
Alex Tecza run for 62 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 25DOWNS
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:2412% → 8%
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+51
11.6%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 51 yds to the NAVY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
14.2%
Charlotte Penalty, False Start (Jonny King) to the NAVY 29Similar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+4
13.8%
Jalon Jones run for 4 yds to the NAVY 25Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+10
13.8%
IVEY, Trexler pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for CLEMONS, Jake thrown to the USN4. PENALTY USN Holding on RAMOS, Colin enforced 10 yards from the USN25 to the USN15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
14.1%
Terron Kellman run for 2 yds to the NAVY 13Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
14.1%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+7
13.7%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jake Clemons for 7 yds to the NAVY 6Similar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 1
OPP 6
0
7.7%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 26PUNT
14 plays · 48 yds · 5:2394% → 99%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
6.1%
Braxton Woodson run for 5 yds to the NAVY 11Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+6
4.2%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 6 yds to the NAVY 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+19
4.0%
Eli Heidenreich run for 19 yds to the NAVY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
3.5%
Amin Hassan run for 2 yds to the NAVY 38Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
3.3%
Braxton Woodson run for no gain to the NAVY 38Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+11
3.4%
Amin Hassan run for 11 yds to the NAVY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
3.2%
Braxton Woodson run for 3 yds to the CLT 48Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+4
3.2%
Braxton Woodson run for 4 yds to the CLT 44Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 3
OPP 44
-2
1.4%
Braxton Woodson run for a loss of 2 yards to the CLT 46Similar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
1.5%
Riley Riethman punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 27INT
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:151% → 1%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
1.4%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 7 yds to the CLT 27Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-6
1.4%
Trexler Ivey sacked by Landon Robinson for a loss of 6 yards to the CLT 21Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+19
1.4%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Sean Brown for 19 yds to the CLT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
1.4%
Trexler Ivey run for 12 yds to the NAVY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
1.5%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jack Reynolds for 7 yds to the NAVY 41Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+4
1.6%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Shadrick Byrd for 4 yds to the NAVY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
1.6%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
1.2%
Trexler Ivey pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:02
Alex Tecza run for 62 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q3 12:30
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 69 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
-10.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:11
Navy Penalty, Illegal Snap on SELF, Brent enforced (Brent Self) to the NAVY 38
-7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com