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CLT

Charlotte 16 at SMU 34

SMU
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreCLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-1.1SMU 92.1%Jake Larson 21 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 14 · Q2 8:20
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:20 · Jake Larson 21 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Pregame prior+34.1Home team on offense+5.3Score differential+1.9Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:46: Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +1.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:53: Jaylan Knighton run for 95 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +3.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:25: Jack Hestera 3 Yd pass from Trexler Ivey (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — CLT win probability +1.9 pts (now 4%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:23: Trexler Ivey run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Larson KICK) — CLT win probability +4.2 pts (now 8%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:18: Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 23 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +2.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CLT made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 9:31CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:40CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 35, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:06CLT 4th & 10 at SMU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:13SMU 4th & 14 at SMU 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:20CLT 4th & 3 at SMU 3, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.3%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:53SMU 4th & 5 at CLT 5, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    88.4%−2.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:10CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:07CLT 4th & 11 at CLT 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:14CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 42, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:40SMU 4th & 8 at CLT 16, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:25CLT 4th & 3 at SMU 3, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:52SMU 4th & 13 at SMU 41, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:18SMU 4th & 2 at CLT 23, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    92.4%−2.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:31SMU 4th & 12 at SMU 48, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:00CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 19, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CLT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 11:41SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:46SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:53SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:25CLT Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:23CLT Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:18SMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 3:1195% → 95%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
94.8%
Preston Stone run for 15 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
94.7%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+4
94.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 4 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+5
94.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for 5 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
94.5%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 12 yds to the CLT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
94.5%
Jaylan Knighton run for 5 yds to the CLT 38Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+12
94.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for 12 yds to the CLT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
94.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 1 yd to the CLT 25Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
94.3%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+7
94.3%
(11:54) STONE, Preston sacked for a loss of 7 yards at the CLT32 (FONTAINE, Austin), clock 11:55. PENALTY CLT Face mask on FONTAINE, Austin enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards from the CLT25 to the CLT13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
94.5%
Preston Stone pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 12 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 2DOWNS
9 plays · -3 yds · 4:526% → 6%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
94.4%
Durell Robinson run for 2 yds to the CLT 20Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+2
94.3%
Jalon Jones run for 2 yds to the CLT 22Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+5
94.2%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 5 yds to the CLT 27Similar
Q1 9:31
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+7
94.1%
Shadrick Byrd run for 7 yds to the CLT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
93.9%
Durell Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the CLT 33Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+2
93.9%
Jalon Jones run for 2 yds to the CLT 35Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
93.8%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Randy Fields Jr. for no gain to the CLT 35Similar
Q1 6:40
4TH & 9
OWN 35
-20
93.7%
run for a loss of 20 yards to the CLT 15 fumbled, recovered by CLTSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:5194% → 95%
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-8
94.0%
Preston Stone sacked by Eyabi Okie-Anoma for a loss of 8 yards to the CLT 23Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 18
OPP 23
+13
93.8%
Preston Stone pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 13 yds to the CLT 10Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+9
93.7%
Preston Stone run for 9 yds to the CLT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4MISSED FG
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:306% → 6%
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
94.4%
Shadrick Byrd run for 3 yds to the CLT 23Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+52
94.4%
Jalon Jones run for 52 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
94.1%
Shadrick Byrd run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+1
94.1%
Durell Robinson run for 1 yd to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
94.0%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+43
94.2%
Kyle Cunanan 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:4895% → 94%
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
94.5%
Preston Stone sacked by Eyabi Okie-Anoma for a loss of 7 yards to the SMU 18Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
94.5%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for no gain to the SMU 18Similar
Q1 0:56
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+20
94.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jake Bailey for 20 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
94.7%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
94.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 41
-7
94.5%
Preston Stone sacked by Stone Handy for a loss of 7 yards to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 14
OWN 34
0
94.3%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 35 yds, downed at the CLT 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 5:466% → 8%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
93.9%
Jalon Jones run for 9 yds to the CLT 40Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+6
93.8%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Malik Baker II for 6 yds to the CLT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
93.8%
Terron Kellman run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 6
50
+25
93.7%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Jack Hestera for 25 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
93.4%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Jack Hestera for 2 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+9
93.3%
Terron Kellman run for 9 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (Elijah Chatman) to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
93.3%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Colin Weber for 3 yds to the SMU 4Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
93.3%
Jalon Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 3Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
93.2%
Jalon Jones run for no gain to the SMU 3Similar
Q2 8:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
92.1%
Jake Larson 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 3:4693% → 94%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
92.8%
Velton Gardner run for 23 yds to the CLT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
92.9%
Velton Gardner run for 1 yd to the CLT 38Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+12
92.9%
Preston Stone run for 12 yds to the CLT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
92.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for 6 yds to the CLT 20Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 4
OPP 7
0
92.8%
Velton Gardner run for no gain to the CLT 7Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+5
92.6%
Velton Gardner run for 5 yds to the CLT 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
92.8%
Preston Stone run for 1 yd to the CLT 1Similar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
92.8%
Velton Gardner run for 6 yds to the CLT 7Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
92.8%
Preston Stone run for a loss of 4 yards to the CLT 5Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
92.6%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+7
92.8%
Velton Gardner run for 7 yds to the CLT 13Similar
Q2 3:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
94.0%
Collin Rogers 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:436% → 6%
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.6%
Durell Robinson run for 4 yds to the CLT 29Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-3
93.4%
Jalon Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the CLT 26Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
93.7%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
93.9%
Grant Gonya punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:4695% → 95%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
94.5%
Jaylan Knighton run for 9 yds to the CLT 47Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 1
OPP 47
-5
94.6%
STONE, Preston pass deep to the left complete for 47 yards to SMITH, Key'Shawn caught at the CLT19 and advanced to the CLT0, TOUCHDOWN SMU, score nullified by penalty, clock 01:44 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY SMU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on WHITE, Hyrin enforced 5 yards from the CLT47 to the SMU48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+10
94.5%
Preston Stone pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 10 yds to the CLT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
94.5%
Preston Stone pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10END OF HALF
9 plays · 28 yds · 1:006% → 6%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
93.6%
Jalon Jones run for no gain to the CLT 13Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+10
93.6%
Durell Robinson run for 10 yds to the CLT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
93.6%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Colin Weber for 6 yds to the CLT 29Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+9
93.4%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Colin Weber for 9 yds to the CLT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-9
93.4%
Jalon Jones sacked by Nelson Paul for a loss of 9 yards to the CLT 29Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 19
OWN 29
0
93.7%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 19
OWN 29
+12
94.0%
Durell Robinson run for 12 yds to the CLT 41Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
93.6%
ROBINSON, Durell rush to the right for a loss of 2 yards to the CLT23 (MCGILL, Jonathan). PENALTY SMU Face mask on PAUL, Nelson enforced 15 yards from the CLT25 to the CLT40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:537% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
93.2%
Durell Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the CLT 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+1
93.6%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Bryce Kennon for 1 yd to the CLT 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
93.6%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:07
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
93.7%
Grant Gonya punt for 59 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12TD
1 play · 95 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+95
97.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for 95 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:343% → 3%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
97.2%
Jalon Jones run for 1 yd to the CLT 38Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
97.2%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 9
OWN 38
-5
97.3%
Charlotte Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the CLT 33Similar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+9
97.4%
Shadrick Byrd run for 9 yds to the CLT 42Similar
Q3 11:14
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
97.4%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14FG
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:3498% → 98%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
97.9%
Velton Gardner run for 5 yds to the CLT 37Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+3
97.9%
Velton Gardner run for 3 yds to the CLT 34Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+2
97.9%
Velton Gardner run for 2 yds to the CLT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
97.9%
Velton Gardner run for 1 yd to the CLT 31Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
97.9%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+13
97.9%
Preston Stone pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 13 yds to the CLT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
97.9%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the CLT 16Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 8
OPP 16
-10
97.9%
run for a loss of 10 yards to the CLT 26 fumbled, recovered by SMU Preston StoneSimilar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 18
OPP 26
+10
97.8%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jake Bailey for 10 yds to the CLT 16Similar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+33
97.9%
Collin Rogers 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 15TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:152% → 4%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
98.1%
Terron Kellman run for 18 yds to the CLT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
98.0%
Terron Kellman run for 2 yds to the CLT 45Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+7
98.0%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jairus Mack for 7 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 1
OPP 48
-1
98.0%
Durell Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 49Similar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+15
98.0%
SMU Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Kori Roberson Jr.) to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
97.7%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jack Hestera for 16 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
97.7%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-15
97.7%
Charlotte Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jack Hestera) to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 25
OPP 29
+6
97.8%
Terron Kellman run for 6 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 19
OPP 23
+10
98.0%
IVEY, Trexler pass deep to the right incomplete intended for FIELDS, Randy broken up by ROGERS, Jahari at the SMU0. PENALTY SMU Holding on BURNS, Jaqwondis enforced 10 yards from the SMU23 to the SMU13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
97.7%
Terron Kellman run for 10 yds to the SMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.9%
Durell Robinson run for no gain to the SMU 3Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.9%
IVEY, Trexler pass short to the right incomplete thrown to the SMU0. PENALTY CLT Intentional Grounding on IVEY, Trexler SMU Roughing the Passer on WILSON, Kobe , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
97.9%
Durell Robinson run for 1 yd to the SMU 2Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
98.0%
Joachim Bangda run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 3Similar
Q3 1:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.2%
Jack Hestera 3 Yd pass from Trexler Ivey (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 3:2797% → 98%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
97.3%
SMU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 5Similar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+5
96.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for 5 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+9
96.8%
Preston Stone run for 9 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+6
97.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for 6 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jake Bailey for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
97.6%
STONE, Preston pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for SMITH, Key'Shawn thrown to the CLT35 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY CLT Roughing the Passer on HILL-GREEN, Nikhai enforced 15 yards from the SMU29 to the SMU44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
97.8%
KNIGHTON, Jaylan rush to the left for a gain of 10 yards to the CLT46 (BALFOUR, Dontae), out of bounds. PENALTY SMU Holding on WILLIAMS, PJ enforced 10 yards from the SMU44 to the SMU34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+7
97.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 7 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 41
0
97.7%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 41
0
97.6%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:52
4TH & 13
OWN 41
0
97.8%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 17TD
15 plays · 74 yds · 6:293% → 8%
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
97.3%
Durell Robinson run for 10 yds to the CLT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
97.1%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jack Hestera for 13 yds to the CLT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
97.1%
Durell Robinson run for 5 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
97.0%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+8
97.1%
Terron Kellman run for 8 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
97.1%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
97.1%
Terron Kellman run for 2 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+8
97.1%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jack Hestera for 8 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
96.6%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
96.8%
Durell Robinson run for 4 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+14
96.9%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Durell Robinson for 14 yds to the SMU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
96.2%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Malik Baker II for 9 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
96.2%
IVEY, Trexler pass short up the middle incomplete intended for FIELDS, Randy thrown to the SMU0. PENALTY Before the snap, CLT Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the SMU1 to the SMU6. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
96.2%
Trexler Ivey run for 5 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.0%
Trexler Ivey run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Larson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 44 yds · 2:0495% → 99%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
94.8%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
95.7%
Velton Gardner run for 7 yds to the CLT 37Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+6
95.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 6 yds to the CLT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
96.1%
Velton Gardner run for 4 yds to the CLT 27Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+3
96.2%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the CLT 24Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+1
96.4%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the CLT 23Similar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+23
99.0%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 23 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19INT
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:021% → 1%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.4%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jack Hestera for 14 yds to the CLT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
99.3%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Colin Weber for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
50
0
99.3%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 10
50
0
99.4%
Trexler Ivey pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:4599% → 100%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
50
-2
99.2%
Velton Gardner run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 48Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 12
OWN 48
0
99.2%
Velton Gardner run for no gain to the SMU 48Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 12
OWN 48
0
99.7%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:31
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
99.7%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21END OF GAME
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:311% → 1%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-9
99.4%
Trexler Ivey sacked by Kori Roberson Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the CLT 9Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 19
OWN 9
0
99.5%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 19
OWN 9
+10
99.5%
Terron Kellman run for 10 yds to the CLT 19Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 9
OWN 19
+12
99.5%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Bryce Kennon for 12 yds to the CLT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:23
Trexler Ivey run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Larson KICK)
-4.2
TD · Q3 12:53
Jaylan Knighton run for 95 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
+3.9
TD · Q4 4:18
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 23 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
+2.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com