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UTSA

UTSA 37 at North Texas 29

UNT
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+1.7UNT 29.4%Noah Rauschenberg 25 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 3 · Q2 14:56
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:56 · Noah Rauschenberg 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Home team on offense−2.0Pregame prior−18.8Score differential−0.9Garbage-time factor−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:07: Oscar Adaway III run for 32 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK) — UNT win probability +6.6 pts (now 31%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:38: Rocko Griffin run for 7 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK) — UTSA win probability +7.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:01: Chandler Rogers pass complete to Blair Conwright for 20 yds for a TD (Chandler Rogers pass to Trey Cleveland for Two-Point Conversion) — UNT win probability +12.7 pts (now 25%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:32: Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK) — UTSA win probability +9.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:50: Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 19 yds for a TD (C. Rogers Run For Two-point Conversion) — UNT win probability +8.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UTSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 13:17UNT 4th & 12 at UNT 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:15UTSA 4th & 12 at UNT 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    65.3%−1.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:09UNT 4th & 12 at UTSA 35, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.9%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    31.0%
    45% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:56UNT 4th & 7 at UTSA 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:07UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.3%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:36UNT 4th & 3 at UTSA 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    22.7%−0.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:52UNT 4th & 12 at UTSA 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:27UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:45UNT 4th & 17 at UNT 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−2.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:14UTSA 4th & 20 at UTSA 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−3.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:03UTSA 4th & 10 at UNT 11, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−1.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    78.4%−7.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:45UNT 4th & 23 at UNT 42, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−3.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:54UTSA 4th & 9 at UTSA 19, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:53UTSA 4th & 11 at UTSA 24, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−3.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:50UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 34, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    88.9%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 1 of 3UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:08UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:09UTSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:07UNT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:38UTSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:01UNT Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    19.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    19.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:32UTSA Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:50UNT Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    12.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    11.4%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4326% → 27%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
26.2%
Chandler Rogers sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the UNT 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 16
0
26.2%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+7
26.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 7 yds to the UNT 23Similar
Q1 13:17
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
26.9%
Sawyer Evans punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:0973% → 74%
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
27.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the UTSA 42Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+14
27.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for 14 yds to the UNT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
27.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 11 yds to the UNT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
27.0%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+13
27.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for 13 yds to the UNT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+17
27.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for 17 yds to the UNT 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
26.5%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:3227% → 28%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
26.9%
Chandler Rogers run for 9 yds to the UNT 34Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
27.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 11 yds to the UNT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
27.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 21 yds to the UTSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+29
27.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Smart for 29 yds Jordan Smart fumbled, recovered by UTSA Trumane Bell II [NHSG] ROGERS, Chandler pass up the middle complete for 29 yards to SMART, Jordan caught at the UTS24, SMART, Jordan fumbled at UTS6 forced by WISDOM, Rashad, recovered by UTS BELL II, Trumane at the UTS5, returned 0 yards to the UTS5, End of Play, clock 09:36.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4FG
14 plays · 72 yds · 5:2173% → 73%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
27.2%
Robert Henry run for 3 yds to the UTSA 8Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+6
27.2%
Robert Henry run for 6 yds to the UTSA 14Similar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+1
27.3%
Robert Henry run for 1 yd to the UTSA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
27.2%
Rocko Griffin run for 11 yds to the UTSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
27.1%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+29
27.1%
Rocko Griffin run for 29 yds to the UNT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
26.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Willie McCoy for 11 yds to the UNT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
26.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Jace Wilson for 13 yds to the UNT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
26.7%
Frank Harris run for 1 yd to the UNT 20Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
26.8%
Robert Henry run for no gain to the UNT 20Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 9
OPP 20
-10
27.0%
HENRY, Robert rush to the right for a gain of 10 yards to the UNT10 (SMITH, Jaylen). PENALTY UTS Holding on LAPEZE, Luke enforced 10 yards from the UNT20 to the UNT30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 19
OPP 30
+7
27.3%
Frank Harris run for 7 yds to the UNT 23Similar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 12
OPP 23
+40
27.0%
Chase Allen 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 4:1928% → 29%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
27.6%
Ayo Adeyi run for 7 yds to the UNT 32Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
28.0%
Chandler Rogers run for 11 yds to the UNT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+24
28.1%
Ayo Adeyi run for 24 yds to the UTSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
29.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTSA 35Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 12
OPP 35
0
28.8%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 12
OPP 35
0
28.2%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:09
4TH & 12
OPP 35
+13
26.7%
Oscar Adaway III run for 13 yds to the UTSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
28.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 7 yds to the UTSA 15Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+2
28.2%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the UTSA 13Similar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
27.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the UTSA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
28.2%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
28.2%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+3
27.7%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the UTSA 8Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
29.4%
Noah Rauschenberg 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4772% → 78%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
28.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTSA 23Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
28.4%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+19
28.7%
Kevorian Barnes run for 19 yds to the UTSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+44
27.4%
Kevorian Barnes run for 44 yds to the UNT 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
26.9%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the UNT 13Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+2
26.9%
Robert Henry run for 2 yds to the UNT 11Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
21.9%
Robert Henry run for 11 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 3:5823% → 31%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
22.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
22.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the UNT 26Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+9
22.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 9 yds to the UNT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
22.9%
North Texas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNT 30Similar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+5
22.6%
Chandler Rogers run for 5 yds to the UNT 35Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
22.8%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+15
22.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ayo Adeyi for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
50
+3
23.8%
Chandler Rogers run for 3 yds to the UTSA 47Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+7
23.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 7 yds to the UTSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
23.8%
Ayo Adeyi run for 8 yds to the UTSA 32Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 2
OPP 32
0
24.2%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+32
30.9%
Oscar Adaway III run for 32 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:2972% → 81%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.0%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
28.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 7 yds to the UTSA 32Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
27.7%
Rocko Griffin run for 2 yds to the UTSA 34Similar
Q2 8:07
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
28.1%
Frank Harris run for 1 yd to the UTSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
27.6%
GRIFFIN, Rocko rush to the left for a gain of 23 yards to the UNT42 (HILL, Phil). PENALTY UTS Holding on HE'BERT, Payne enforced 10 yards from the UTS35 to the UTS25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+2
28.4%
Rocko Griffin run for 2 yds to the UTSA 27Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 18
OWN 27
+27
28.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 27 yds to the UNT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
26.4%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
26.4%
Robert Henry run for 3 yds to the UNT 43Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+8
26.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 8 yds to the UNT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
26.2%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+28
26.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 28 yds to the UNT 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
18.8%
Rocko Griffin run for 7 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9FG
17 plays · 50 yds · 2:3721% → 23%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
20.7%
Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the UNT 35Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
20.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+10
20.5%
Chandler Rogers run for 10 yds to the UNT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
21.8%
Ayo Adeyi run for 8 yds to the UTSA 47Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+3
22.1%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the UTSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
22.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 7 yds to the UTSA 37Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 3
OPP 37
0
21.2%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+8
20.9%
Oscar Adaway III run for 8 yds to the UTSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 3
OPP 37
0
21.1%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
20.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Blair Conwright for 7 yds to the UTSA 22Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+8
20.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 8 yds to the UTSA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
20.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTSA 16Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 12
OPP 16
0
21.0%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 12
OPP 16
0
20.3%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 12
OPP 16
+33
22.8%
Noah Rauschenberg 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 0:5278% → 85%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the UTSA 28Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
21.8%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+30
22.2%
Frank Harris run for 30 yds to the UNT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
20.4%
North Texas Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jayven Anderson) to the UNT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
20.1%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+1
20.3%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the UNT 26Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+43
14.8%
Chase Allen 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3382% → 82%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
18.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
18.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Willie McCoy for 5 yds to the UTSA 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
18.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Willie McCoy for 3 yds to the UTSA 32Similar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
18.3%
Lucas Dean punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:4219% → 17%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
18.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the UNT 30Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+8
18.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 8 yds to the UNT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
19.9%
Oscar Adaway III run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 35Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+1
18.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the UNT 36Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 12
OWN 36
-5
18.4%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Rashad Wisdom for a loss of 5 yards to the UNT 31Similar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 17
OWN 31
0
17.0%
Sawyer Evans punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 3:3184% → 85%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
16.3%
Robert Henry run for 4 yds to the UTSA 22Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+4
16.2%
Frank Harris run for 4 yds to the UTSA 26Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+10
16.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 10 yds to the UTSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
15.7%
Robert Henry run for no gain to the UTSA 36Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
15.9%
Robert Henry run for 1 yd to the UTSA 37Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-15
16.1%
HARRIS, Frank pass to the left complete for 9 yards to CEPHUS, Joshua caught at the UTS43 and advanced to the UTS46, out of bounds. PENALTY UTS Pass Interference on OGLE-KELLOGG, Tykee enforced 15 yards to the UTS22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 24
OWN 22
+4
16.9%
Rocko Griffin run for 4 yds to the UTSA 26Similar
Q3 7:14
4TH & 20
OWN 26
0
15.0%
Lucas Dean punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
15.7%
Chandler Rogers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15FG
7 plays · 11 yds · 3:0688% → 90%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
11.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the UNT 19Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+2
11.8%
Frank Harris run for 2 yds to the UNT 17Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+6
12.0%
Frank Harris run for 6 yds to the UNT 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
11.8%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+3
11.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the UNT 8Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 7
OPP 8
-3
12.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 11Similar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
10.5%
Chase Allen 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 2:0814% → 12%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
13.7%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTSA 47Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 12
OPP 47
-10
13.3%
ROGERS, Chandler pass short up the middle complete for 7 yards to LEE, Christian caught at the UTS45 and advanced to the UTS40 (LIGON, Jamal). PENALTY UNT Holding on ADEYI, Ayo enforced 10 yards from the UTS47 to the UNT43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 22
OWN 43
+9
12.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Blair Conwright for 9 yds to the UTSA 48Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 13
OPP 48
-10
12.6%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Brandon Matterson for a loss of 10 yards to the UNT 42Similar
Q3 1:45
4TH & 23
OWN 42
0
11.6%
Sawyer Evans punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5192% → 92%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
8.1%
Rocko Griffin run for 1 yd to the UTSA 19Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
8.2%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
8.6%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:54
4TH & 9
OWN 19
0
8.5%
Lucas Dean punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Landon Sides at the UNT 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 1:5312% → 25%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
12.1%
Ayo Adeyi run for no gain to the UNT 41Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+10
11.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Blair Conwright for 10 yds to the UTSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
11.3%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the UTSA 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
11.4%
Ayo Adeyi run for 6 yds to the UTSA 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+15
11.9%
UTSA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ken Robinson) to the UTSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
12.8%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
12.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 5 yds to the UTSA 20Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+20
25.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Blair Conwright for 20 yds for a TD (Chandler Rogers pass to Trey Cleveland for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0879% → 77%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.8%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.3%
Robert Henry run for 3 yds to the UTSA 28Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-4
21.4%
Frank Harris sacked by Kadren Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the UTSA 24Similar
Q4 12:53
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
22.7%
Lucas Dean punt for 59 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20INT
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:4321% → 23%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
21.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 9 yds to the UNT 27Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+16
22.1%
Ayo Adeyi run for 16 yds to the UNT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
23.0%
Ayo Adeyi run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 3
50
+1
24.4%
Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the UTSA 49Similar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+29
24.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Blair Conwright for 29 yds to the UTSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
22.8%
Chandler Rogers pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
22.8%
Chandler Rogers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21TD
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:3886% → 95%
Q4 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
14.5%
Kevorian Barnes run for 6 yds to the UNT 3Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
5.3%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:427% → 16%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
6.7%
Chandler Rogers run for 8 yds to the UNT 33Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
7.2%
ROGERS, Chandler pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HORTON, Kaylon thrown to the UTS30. PENALTY UNT Holding on MOREKA, Kaci UTS Pass Interference on ALEXANDER, Kameryn , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
7.2%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the UNT 34Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
7.2%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the UNT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
6.9%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+17
6.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 17 yds to the UTSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+31
7.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 31 yds to the UTSA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
8.1%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the UTSA 13Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-10
8.1%
QB Keeper ROGERS, Chandler rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the UTS11 (ROBINSON, Ken;FRAZIER, Zah). PENALTY UNT Holding on MOREKA, Kaci enforced 10 yards from the UTS13 to the UTS23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 18
OPP 23
+4
7.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 4 yds to the UTSA 19Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 14
OPP 19
+19
16.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 19 yds for a TD (C. Rogers Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23END OF GAME
15 plays · 33 yds · 5:0890% → 97%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
10.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 3 yds to the UTSA 28Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
10.2%
Rocko Griffin run for 6 yds to the UTSA 34Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
10.5%
Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the UTSA 34Similar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
11.1%
Frank Harris run for 3 yds to the UTSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
9.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 9 yds to the UTSA 46Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+3
6.0%
Rocko Griffin run for 3 yds to the UTSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
5.0%
Robert Henry run for 4 yds to the UNT 47Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+5
4.9%
Robert Henry run for 5 yds to the UNT 42Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+3
4.7%
Frank Harris run for 3 yds to the UNT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
4.8%
Kneel down by HARRIS, Frank at UNT41 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 12
OPP 41
0
3.2%
(00:42) Kneel down by HARRIS, Frank at UNT42 (team loss of 1).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:01
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Blair Conwright for 20 yds for a TD (Chandler Rogers pass to Trey Cleveland for Two-Point Conversion)
+12.7
TD · Q4 9:32
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)
-9.2
TD · Q4 5:50
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 19 yds for a TD (C. Rogers Run For Two-point Conversion)
+8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com