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ECU

East Carolina 27 at UTSA 41

UTSA
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Alamodome
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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:46 · Luke Larsen punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 52Pregame prior+31.4Home team on offense+3.6Score differential+0.6Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:11: Dontavius Nash 36 Yd Interception Return (Andrew Conrad Kick) — ECU win probability +2.0 pts (now 14%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 12:42: Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 84 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK) — UTSA win probability +2.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:11: Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 7 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK) — UTSA win probability +3.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:03: Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 43 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK) — UTSA win probability +3.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:15: Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 4 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +2.5 pts (now 3%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 13:40ECU 4th & 9 at UTSA 35, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.6%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    12.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:22ECU 4th & 11 at UTSA 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:52UTSA 4th & 10 at ECU 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:19ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:46ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:19UTSA 4th & 19 at UTSA 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−1.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:56ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:20ECU 4th & 10 at UTSA 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.6%
    47% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:03UTSA 4th & 8 at ECU 18, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    84.6%−3.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:38ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 21, down 14
    Close callPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:35UTSA 4th & 9 at UTSA 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:35ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 25, down 14
    Close callPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:22UTSA 4th & 11 at UTSA 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:59ECU 4th & 16 at ECU 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:48UTSA 4th & 2 at UTSA 26, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:14ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 26, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ECU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:22UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:56ECU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:22UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:11ECU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:42UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:11UTSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:03UTSA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:15ECU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1MISSED FG
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:209% → 10%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
90.7%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 39 yds to the UTSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
90.7%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
90.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the UTSA 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
90.7%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 9
OPP 35
+52
90.4%
Andrew Conrad 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:1890% → 90%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
90.4%
Frank Harris run for 9 yds to the UTSA 44Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+9
90.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 9 yds to the ECU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
90.5%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
90.4%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the ECU 44Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+43
90.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Devin McCuin for 43 yds to the ECU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
90.2%
Frank Harris run for no gain to the ECU 1Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2610% → 12%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.2%
Alex Flinn run for 3 yds to the ECU 28Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+44
90.2%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 29 yds to the UTSA 43 for a 1ST down UTSA Penalty, Targeting on TRIPLETTE, Ronald enforced (15 Yards) to the UTSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
90.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 9 yds to the UTSA 19Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
90.0%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+3
90.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the UTSA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
90.0%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for no gain to the UTSA 16Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
90.0%
Alex Flinn run for 3 yds to the UTSA 13Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+13
88.3%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 13 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:3489% → 90%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+65
88.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 65 yds to the ECU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
90.0%
Robert Henry run for 10 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 6:0010% → 12%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.6%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+29
89.7%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 29 yds to the UTSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
89.3%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 4 yds to the UTSA 42Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
88.9%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Marlon Gunn Jr. for no gain to the UTSA 42Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+12
88.9%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 12 yds to the UTSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
88.7%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the UTSA 27Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+12
88.7%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 12 yds to the UTSA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
88.7%
FLINN, Alex scrambles to the right for a gain of 13 yards to the TSA2 (WISDOM, Rashad). PENALTY ECU Holding on MOORER, Parker enforced 10 yards from the TSA15 to the TSA25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 20
OPP 25
+4
88.8%
Alex Flinn run for 4 yds to the UTSA 21Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 16
OPP 21
+5
88.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the UTSA 16Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 11
OPP 16
0
88.9%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:22
4TH & 11
OPP 16
+33
87.6%
Andrew Conrad 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-36
85.6%
Dontavius Nash 36 Yd Interception Return (Andrew Conrad Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7FG
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:1986% → 87%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+69
85.6%
Rocko Griffin run for 69 yds to the ECU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
86.7%
Rocko Griffin run for 2 yds to the ECU 4Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-6
86.3%
Frank Harris sacked by Chad Stephens for a loss of 6 yards to the ECU 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
85.9%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
86.5%
Chase Allen 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3314% → 15%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.6%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 5 yds to the ECU 30Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
85.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECU 32Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
85.6%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
85.3%
Luke Larsen punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9TD
2 plays · 84 yds · 0:3786% → 88%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
85.7%
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the UTSA 16Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+84
88.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 84 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:5612% → 12%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
88.2%
UTSA Penalty, Personal Foul (Rocko Griffin) to the ECU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
87.9%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
88.0%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
88.3%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:46
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
88.4%
Luke Larsen punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:2788% → 87%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
88.3%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the UTSA 25Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+7
88.2%
Frank Harris run for 7 yds to the UTSA 32Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+2
88.3%
run for 2 yds to the UTSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
88.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 13 yds to the UTSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
88.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 46Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+2
88.5%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the UTSA 48Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 9
OWN 48
-10
88.4%
Frank Harris sacked by Jeremy Lewis for a loss of 10 yards to the UTSA 38Similar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 19
OWN 38
0
87.2%
Lucas Dean punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jsi Hatfield at the ECU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2313% → 12%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
87.5%
Alex Flinn sacked by Brandon Matterson for a loss of 5 yards to the ECU 22Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+5
87.7%
Alex Flinn run for 5 yds to the ECU 27Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
87.9%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:56
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
88.2%
Luke Larsen punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 4:4588% → 92%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
88.0%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+9
88.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 9 yds to the UTSA 43Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+2
88.4%
Robert Henry run for 2 yds to the UTSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
88.6%
Robert Henry run for 3 yds to the UTSA 48Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-4
88.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Devin McCuin for a loss of 4 yards to the UTSA 44Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+2
88.0%
Frank Harris run for 17 yds to the ECU 39 for a 1ST down UTSA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the UTSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
88.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 21 yds to the ECU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+26
88.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Houston Thomas for 26 yds to the ECU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
88.4%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
88.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Rocko Griffin for no gain to the ECU 7Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
92.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 7 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 1:519% → 9%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
91.5%
Alex Flinn run for 18 yds to the ECU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
91.3%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 5 yds to the ECU 48Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+8
90.3%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 8 yds to the UTSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
89.9%
Alex Flinn run for 6 yds to the UTSA 38Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+4
89.7%
Alex Flinn run for 4 yds to the UTSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
90.6%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
90.7%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
91.6%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+51
90.6%
Andrew Conrad 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0991% → 90%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
90.6%
[NH] Kneel down by HARRIS, Frank at TSA15 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
90.2%
HARRIS, Frank pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for CEPHUS, Joshua broken up by REVEL, Shavon at the ECU28; QB hurried by JACKSON, Teylor. PENALTY TSA Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced 5 yards from the TSA38 to the TSA33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:4890% → 92%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+5
89.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 5 yds to the UTSA 38Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
90.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the UTSA 38Similar
Q3 14:51
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+27
89.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 27 yds to the ECU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
90.4%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+15
90.4%
HARRIS, Frank pass deep to the left incomplete intended for CEPHUS, Joshua thrown to the ECU0. PENALTY ECU Pass Interference on JONES, Jonathan enforced 15 yards to the ECU20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
90.4%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
90.4%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the ECU 18Similar
Q3 14:51
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
90.0%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:03
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
91.9%
Chase Allen 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:178% → 8%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
91.7%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 2 yds to the ECU 14Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+7
91.8%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 7 yds to the ECU 21Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 1
OWN 21
0
91.6%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:38
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
91.9%
Luke Larsen punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0392% → 92%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
92.4%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
92.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 1 yd to the UTSA 36Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
92.1%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
92.0%
Lucas Dean punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jsi Hatfield at the ECU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
91.7%
Alex Flinn run for 5 yds to the ECU 22Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 5
OWN 22
0
91.4%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the ECU 22Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+3
91.9%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 3 yds to the ECU 25Similar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 2
OWN 25
0
92.0%
Luke Larsen punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1693% → 93%
Q3 7:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
93.2%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-3
92.9%
Frank Harris sacked by Elijah Morris and CJ Mims for a loss of 3 yards to the UTSA 24Similar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.2%
Robert Henry run for 2 yds to the UTSA 27Similar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
92.6%
Lucas Dean punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21INT
8 plays · 54 yds · 4:129% → 9%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-6
91.4%
Alex Flinn sacked by Trey Moore for a loss of 6 yards to the ECU 24Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 16
OWN 24
+46
92.0%
Gerald Green run for 46 yds to the UTSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
90.0%
Gerald Green run for 6 yds to the UTSA 24Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+1
89.7%
Gerald Green run for 1 yd to the UTSA 23Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+4
90.3%
Kamarro Edmonds run for 4 yds to the UTSA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
89.7%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Desirrio Riles for 1 yd to the UTSA 18Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+2
89.7%
Alex Flinn run for 2 yds to the UTSA 16Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
91.2%
Alex Flinn pass intercepted by Elliott Davison, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:0795% → 99%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-9
94.8%
Frank Harris sacked by D'Anta Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the UTSA 11Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+17
94.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Willie McCoy for 17 yds to the UTSA 28Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+14
94.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for 14 yds to the UTSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
95.2%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
95.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 4 yds to the UTSA 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+10
95.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Willie McCoy for 10 yds to the ECU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
95.7%
Rocko Griffin run for 1 yd to the ECU 43Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+43
98.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 43 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 4:021% → 1%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
98.8%
Alex Flinn run for 1 yd to the ECU 20Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
98.9%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+10
98.9%
Alex Flinn run for 10 yds to the ECU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
98.8%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 16 yds to the ECU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-6
98.8%
Alex Flinn sacked by Owen Pewee for a loss of 6 yards to the ECU 40Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 16
OWN 40
+2
98.9%
Alex Flinn run for 2 yds to the ECU 42Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 14
OWN 42
-2
99.0%
Alex Flinn sacked by Trey Moore for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 40Similar
Q4 9:59
4TH & 16
OWN 40
0
99.0%
Luke Larsen punt for 49 yds, Chris Carpenter return for 7 yds to the UTSA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1199% → 99%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
99.2%
Rocko Griffin run for 5 yds to the UTSA 23Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+3
99.2%
Rocko Griffin run for 3 yds to the UTSA 26Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 2
OWN 26
0
99.3%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:48
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
99.2%
Lucas Dean punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Jsi Hatfield at the ECU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:341% → 1%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.0%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECU 23Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+3
99.0%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 3 yds to the ECU 26Similar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 4
OWN 26
-12
99.1%
Alex Flinn sacked by Trey Moore for a loss of 12 yards to the ECU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 26MISSED FG
7 plays · -20 yds · 3:3199% → 99%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
99.4%
Brandon High run for 2 yds to the ECU 12Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+3
99.4%
Brandon High run for 3 yds to the ECU 9Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+5
99.4%
Brandon High run for 5 yds to the ECU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
99.4%
UTSA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness Personal Foul on HAYNES, Terrell enforced (Venly Tatafu) to the ECU 34Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 33
-1
99.3%
Brandon High run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 34Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 34
0
99.2%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 34
+52
99.3%
Chase Allen 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 27TD
15 plays · 66 yds · 3:281% → 3%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.3%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
99.3%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Tyler Savage for 6 yds to the ECU 40Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+13
99.3%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Marlon Gunn Jr. for 13 yds to the UTSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
99.3%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 6 yds to the UTSA 41Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 4
OPP 41
0
99.2%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+5
99.3%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 5 yds to the UTSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
99.3%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 7 yds to the UTSA 29Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+4
99.2%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Desirrio Riles for 4 yds to the UTSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
99.4%
Alex Flinn run for 8 yds to the UTSA 17Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+7
99.3%
Alex Flinn run for 7 yds to the UTSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.3%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
99.4%
Alex Flinn run for 6 yds to the UTSA 4Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.9%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 4 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.2%
[NH] Kneel down by MCCOWN, Owen at TSA27 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:11
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 7 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)
+3.8
TD · Q4 14:03
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 43 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)
+3.1
TD · Q2 12:42
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 84 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)
+2.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com