Try the model
ARMY

Army 37 at UTSA 29

UTSA
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2023 · Alamodome
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:19 · Eddie Lee Marburger pass incomplete to Oscar Cardenas
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Pregame prior+11.7Home team on offense−4.2Score differential−2.0Garbage-time factor−2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:00: Tykee Ogle-Kellogg 46 Yd pass from Eddie Lee Marburger (Chase Allen Kick) — UTSA win probability +11.0 pts (now 57%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:04: Joshua Cephus 44 Yd pass from Eddie Lee Marburger (Chase Allen Kick) — UTSA win probability +17.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q3 6:09: Noah Short 25 Yd pass from Bryson Daily (Quinn Maretzki Kick) — ARMY win probability +19.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:45: Bryson Daily 3 Yd Run (Quinn Maretzki Kick) — ARMY win probability +7.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:12: Devin McCuin 72 Yd pass from Eddie Lee Marburger (Eddie Lee Marburger Pass to Devin McCuin for Two-Point Conversion) — UTSA win probability +10.2 pts (now 18%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ARMY made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 12:36ARMY 4th & 1 at UTSA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    31.0%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:37ARMY 4th & 2 at UTSA 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    31.9%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:30ARMY 4th & 1 at UTSA 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    37.3%−0.8
    84% to make
    Punt
    34.9%−3.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:59ARMY 4th & 5 at UTSA 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    40.0%−5.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:50UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:38ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 36, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.6%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:06ARMY 4th & 7 at UTSA 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    51.1%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:07UTSA 4th & 2 at UTSA 49, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.0%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:19UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 49, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:13ARMY 4th & 4 at UTSA 19, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.9%−0.3
    77% to make
    Punt
    46.6%−9.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:45UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 28, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−1.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:37ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 43, up 9
    Close callPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:22UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 11, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−3.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:30ARMY 4th & 4 at UTSA 36, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    72.3%−2.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    71.4%−3.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:45ARMY 4th & 3 at UTSA 3, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    83.1%−1.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    73.7%−11.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:34ARMY 4th & 5 at ARMY 30, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:12UTSA 4th & 14 at UTSA 31, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ARMY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 7:32ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:15ARMY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:45UTSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:00UTSA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:04UTSA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:09ARMY Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:45ARMY Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:12UTSA Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.1 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.3%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARMYDrive 1TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 7:2526% → 31%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.3%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Hayden ReedSimilar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
74.1%
Bryson Daily run for 9 yds to the ARMY 34Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+27
74.0%
Hayden Reed run for 27 yds to the UTSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
73.9%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Miles StewartSimilar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
73.8%
Miles Stewart run for 9 yds to the UTSA 30Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
73.7%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Noah ShortSimilar
Q1 12:36
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+3
73.7%
Bryson Daily run for 3 yds to the UTSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
73.4%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 9 yds to the UTSA 18Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 1
OPP 18
0
73.2%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Noah ShortSimilar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+4
73.2%
Hayden Reed run for 4 yds to the UTSA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
72.9%
Bryson Daily run for 1 yd to the UTSA 13Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+5
72.7%
Bryson Daily run for 5 yds to the UTSA 8Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+2
72.7%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the UTSA 6Similar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+3
72.6%
Bryson Daily run for 3 yds to the UTSA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
72.1%
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the UTSA 1Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.4%
Hayden Reed 1 Yd Run (Quinn Maretzki Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:0870% → 71%
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
70.2%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 7 yds to the UTSA 32Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
70.5%
Kevorian Barnes run for 9 yds to the UTSA 41 Kevorian Barnes fumbled, forced by Jimmy Ciarlo, recovered by ARMY Quindrelin HammondsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 3TD
11 plays · 41 yds · 5:0931% → 40%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
68.8%
Kanye Udoh run for no gain to the UTSA 41Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-6
68.5%
Ay'Jaun Marshall run for a loss of 6 yards to the UTSA 47Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 16
OPP 47
+9
68.5%
Bryson Daily run for 9 yds to the UTSA 38Similar
Q1 4:50
4TH & 7
OPP 38
+15
68.2%
Daily, Bryson pass incomplete to Marshall, Ay'Jaun, PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Nwachuku, Kelechi) 15 yards to the UTSA23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARMY.Similar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
67.1%
Hayden Reed run for 6 yds to the UTSA 17Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 4
OPP 17
0
66.6%
Miles Stewart run for no gain to the UTSA 17Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+3
66.4%
Hayden Reed run for 3 yds to the UTSA 14Similar
Q1 2:30
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+4
66.4%
Bryson Daily run for 4 yds to the UTSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
64.2%
Hayden Reed run for no gain to the UTSA 10 Hayden Reed fumbled, forced by Dywan Griffin, recovered by ARMY Hayden ReedSimilar
Q1 1:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
59.6%
Jakobi Buchanan 10 Yd Run (Quinn Maretzki Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:1561% → 67%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
60.6%
Rocko Griffin run for 15 yds to the UTSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
61.2%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass incomplete to Tykee Ogle-KelloggSimilar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
60.7%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 9 yds to the UTSA 49Similar
Q1 0:04
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+1
60.6%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
50
+6
60.6%
Rocko Griffin run for 6 yds to the ARMY 44Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
60.4%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+6
59.8%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass complete to Willie McCoy for 6 yds to the ARMY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
59.3%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 6 yds to the ARMY 32Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+6
59.3%
Robert Henry run for 6 yds to the ARMY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
58.9%
Robert Henry run for 7 yds to the ARMY 19Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+19
66.0%
Robert Henry 19 Yd Run (Chase Allen Kick)Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 0
OPP 3
-5
66.8%
UTSA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ARMY 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 5FG
9 plays · 69 yds · 4:3337% → 45%
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
62.8%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Markel Johnson for 26 yds to the UTSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
60.5%
Hayden Reed run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 11
50
+1
60.3%
Hayden Reed run for 1 yd to the UTSA 49Similar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+38
60.0%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Noah Short for 38 yds to the UTSA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
57.9%
Hayden Reed run for 7 yds to the UTSA 4Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 3
OPP 4
0
57.8%
Hayden Reed run for no gain to the UTSA 4Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 3
OPP 4
-2
57.2%
Bryson Daily run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTSA 6Similar
Q2 7:59
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+23
55.0%
Quinn Maretzki 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:5655% → 53%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.3%
Kevorian Barnes run for 5 yds to the UTSA 30Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
55.7%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 6 yds to the UTSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
55.7%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-2
55.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTSA 34Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+2
53.2%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 2 yds to the UTSA 36Similar
Q2 5:50
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
52.6%
Lucas Dean punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Cameron Jones at the ARMY 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 7FG
16 plays · 45 yds · 4:2447% → 58%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
53.1%
Bryson Daily run for 5 yds to the ARMY 32Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
51.5%
Markel Johnson run for no gain to the ARMY 32Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+4
51.5%
Miles Stewart run for 4 yds to the ARMY 36Similar
Q2 3:38
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+4
51.4%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 4 yds to the ARMY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
49.5%
Markel Johnson run for 2 yds to the ARMY 42Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+13
48.7%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 13 yds to the UTSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
47.9%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Ay'Jaun MarshallSimilar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
47.9%
Bryson Daily run for 3 yds to the UTSA 42Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+11
48.1%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Casey Reynolds for 11 yds to the UTSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
47.2%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Isaiah AlstonSimilar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
46.6%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Isaiah AlstonSimilar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+3
47.2%
Hayden Reed run for 3 yds to the UTSA 28Similar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+45
41.9%
Quinn Maretzki 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8END OF HALF
11 plays · 75 yds · 0:5940% → 57%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
39.8%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass complete to Devin McCuin for 5 yds to the UTSA 30Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
39.8%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass complete to Robert Henry for 3 yds to the UTSA 33Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
41.7%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 8 yds to the UTSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
43.7%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass complete to Robert Henry for 8 yds to the UTSA 49Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 2
OWN 49
0
44.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 2
OWN 49
0
43.5%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass incomplete to Tykee Ogle-KelloggSimilar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+5
43.1%
Eddie Lee Marburger run for 5 yds to the ARMY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
44.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+46
56.9%
Tykee Ogle-Kellogg 46 Yd pass from Eddie Lee Marburger (Chase Allen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9DOWNS
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:1656% → 55%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
55.9%
Rocko Griffin run for 20 yds to the UTSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
58.1%
Rocko Griffin run for 4 yds to the UTSA 49Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
58.5%
Rocko Griffin run for 5 yds to the ARMY 46Similar
Q3 13:56
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
58.5%
Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the ARMY 46Similar
Q3 13:56
4TH & 1
OPP 46
-5
57.0%
UTSA Penalty, False Start (Ernesto Almaraz) to the UTSA 49Similar
Q3 13:19
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
54.7%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass incomplete to Oscar CardenasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10FG
7 plays · 30 yds · 3:5252% → 59%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
48.4%
Bryson Daily run for 5 yds to the UTSA 44Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+5
47.8%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Noah Short for 5 yds to the UTSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
48.2%
Hayden Reed run for 14 yds to the UTSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
46.5%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 1 yd to the UTSA 24Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+1
45.8%
Bryson Daily run for 1 yd to the UTSA 23Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+4
46.7%
Bryson Daily run for 4 yds to the UTSA 19Similar
Q3 9:13
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+36
41.4%
Quinn Maretzki 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5443% → 60%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.4%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the UTSA 29Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
43.7%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 8 yds to the UTSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
43.3%
Kevorian Barnes run for 12 yds to the UTSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
44.7%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the ARMY 47Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+3
45.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the ARMY 44Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+44
62.9%
Joshua Cephus 44 Yd pass from Eddie Lee Marburger (Chase Allen Kick)Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 3
OWN 35
-5
60.0%
UTSA Penalty, Offensive Offside (Rashad Wisdom) to the UTSA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:0544% → 64%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+55
55.8%
Markel Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 55 yds to the UTSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
36.1%
Noah Short 25 Yd pass from Bryson Daily (Quinn Maretzki Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:2440% → 36%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
40.3%
UTSA Penalty, False Start (Walker Baty) to the UTSA 20Similar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
39.6%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass complete to Robert Henry for no gain to the UTSA 20Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+8
39.1%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 8 yds to the UTSA 28Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
37.4%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass incomplete to Chris CarpenterSimilar
Q3 4:45
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
36.2%
Lucas Dean punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Cameron Jones at the ARMY 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:4363% → 68%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
36.6%
Bryson Daily run for 9 yds to the ARMY 35Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 1
OWN 35
0
35.3%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Ay'Jaun MarshallSimilar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+1
35.6%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 1 yd to the ARMY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
33.2%
Bryson Daily run for 6 yds to the ARMY 42Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+1
30.8%
Bryson Daily run for 1 yd to the ARMY 43Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
31.1%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Isaiah AlstonSimilar
Q3 1:37
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
32.2%
Cooper Allan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5833% → 29%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
33.4%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the UTSA 12Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 9
OWN 12
-1
32.4%
Eddie Lee Marburger run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 11Similar
Q3 0:34
3RD & 10
OWN 11
0
30.6%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass incomplete to Tykee Ogle-KelloggSimilar
Q3 0:22
4TH & 10
OWN 11
0
29.2%
Lucas Dean punt for 59 yds, downed at the ARMY 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 8:2070% → 94%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
29.6%
Markel Johnson run for 7 yds to the ARMY 37Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+5
28.4%
Hayden Reed run for 5 yds to the ARMY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
27.6%
Hayden Reed run for 16 yds to the UTSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
26.3%
Markel Johnson run for 1 yd to the UTSA 41Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+1
25.9%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 1 yd to the UTSA 40Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+4
25.7%
Bryson Daily run for 4 yds to the UTSA 36Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+15
26.5%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Markel Johnson for 15 yds to the UTSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
19.6%
Hayden Reed run for 3 yds to the UTSA 18Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+3
19.4%
Hayden Reed run for 3 yds to the UTSA 15Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+7
19.1%
Hayden Reed run for 7 yds to the UTSA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
15.0%
Markel Johnson run for 1 yd to the UTSA 7Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
14.7%
Markel Johnson run for 3 yds to the UTSA 4Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
14.0%
Bryson Daily run for 1 yd to the UTSA 3Similar
Q4 6:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
6.3%
Bryson Daily 3 Yd Run (Quinn Maretzki Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:217% → 18%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
7.4%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the UTSA 28Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+72
17.7%
Devin McCuin 72 Yd pass from Eddie Lee Marburger (Eddie Lee Marburger Pass to Devin McCuin for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1688% → 88%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
12.0%
Hayden Reed run for 3 yds to the ARMY 28Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
11.4%
Bryson Daily run for 2 yds to the ARMY 30Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
11.5%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Noah ShortSimilar
Q4 4:34
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+16
12.3%
Cooper Allan punt for 51 yds , Joshua Cephus returns for 16 yds to the UTSA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:0316% → 12%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
15.8%
Rocko Griffin run for 3 yds to the UTSA 38Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
17.5%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass incomplete to Devin McCuinSimilar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-7
14.9%
Eddie Lee Marburger sacked by Jackson Powell for a loss of 7 yards to the UTSA 31Similar
Q4 3:12
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
11.6%
Lucas Dean punt for 44 yds, downed at the ARMY 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20END OF GAME
11 plays · 25 yds · 3:0692% → 97%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
7.9%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the ARMY 27Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
7.2%
Bryson Daily run for 3 yds to the ARMY 30Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
7.1%
Bryson Daily run for 13 yds to the ARMY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
5.6%
Hayden Reed run for 3 yds to the ARMY 46Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+4
3.6%
Bryson Daily run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 3
50
+4
3.4%
Bryson Daily run for 4 yds to the UTSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
3.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTSA 48Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 12
OPP 48
-2
2.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:09
Noah Short 25 Yd pass from Bryson Daily (Quinn Maretzki Kick)
-19.7
TD · Q3 7:04
Joshua Cephus 44 Yd pass from Eddie Lee Marburger (Chase Allen Kick)
+17.6
TD · Q2 0:00
Tykee Ogle-Kellogg 46 Yd pass from Eddie Lee Marburger (Chase Allen Kick)
+11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com