Try the model
TXST

Texas State 13 at UTSA 20

UTSA
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Alamodome
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:29 · Frank Harris run for 3 yds to the TXST 27 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 166Pregame prior+7.3Home team on offense+11.8Garbage-time factor+2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7Score differential+0.7Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:11: Jahmyl Jeter run for 3 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +7.5 pts (now 24%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:16: Mason Shipley 42 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +5.6 pts (now 29%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 11:49: Kevorian Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 12 — UTSA win probability +7.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:14: Frank Harris pass complete to Willie McCoy for 20 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK) — UTSA win probability +12.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 5:47: Chase Allen 43 yd FG GOOD — UTSA win probability +10.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9TXST made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 13:09TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:09UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    81.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:38UTSA 4th & 16 at TXST 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:55TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:01UTSA 4th & 11 at TXST 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    77.5%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:01TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.4%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:45TXST 4th & 7 at UTSA 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    21.2%−0.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    21.5%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:51TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:01UTSA 4th & 6 at TXST 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    81.5%−0.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:28UTSA 4th & 25 at UTSA 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−1.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:16TXST 4th & 10 at UTSA 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    21.9%−4.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:45UTSA 4th & 18 at UTSA 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−2.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:49TXST 4th & 15 at TXST 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:49UTSA 4th & 6 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:52TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−2.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:21TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−1.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:37TXST 4th & 26 at UTSA 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−5.3
    6% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−9.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:29UTSA 4th & 1 at TXST 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    71.4%−5.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    68.7%−7.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:47UTSA 4th & 8 at TXST 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    67.9%−13.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:16TXST 4th & 18 at TXST 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−1.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 12:48UTSA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:11TXST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:14UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4414% → 15%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
85.7%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the TXST 34Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-7
85.7%
TJ Finley sacked by Avery Morris for a loss of 7 yards to the TXST 27Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 17
OWN 27
+13
85.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Drew Donley for 13 yds to the TXST 40Similar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
85.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 4:3185% → 84%
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
85.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the UTSA 28Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+4
85.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for 4 yds to the UTSA 32Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+4
85.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 4 yds to the UTSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
85.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 5 yds to the UTSA 41Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
85.3%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the UTSA 45Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
85.3%
Frank Harris run for no gain to the UTSA 45Similar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+2
85.2%
Frank Harris run for 2 yds to the UTSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
85.3%
Kevorian Barnes run for 12 yds to the TXST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
85.4%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-6
85.4%
Frank Harris sacked by Kenny Haynes for a loss of 6 yards to the TXST 47Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 16
OPP 47
0
85.2%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:38
4TH & 16
OPP 47
0
83.6%
Lucas Dean punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4316% → 17%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
83.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 22Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
83.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 25Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-6
83.8%
TJ Finley sacked by Jimmori Robinson for a loss of 6 yards to the TXST 19Similar
Q1 6:55
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
83.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4FG
14 plays · 39 yds · 3:5483% → 83%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
83.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 8 yds to the UTSA 40Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+1
83.6%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the UTSA 41Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
83.5%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the UTSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
83.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 10 yds to the TXST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
83.7%
Kevorian Barnes run for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 49Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+4
83.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Devin Mccuin for 4 yds to the TXST 45Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+17
83.6%
Frank Harris run for 17 yds to the TXST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
83.9%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-5
83.2%
UTSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TXST 33Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 15
OPP 33
0
82.7%
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the TXST 33Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 15
OPP 33
+4
82.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for 4 yds to the TXST 29Similar
Q1 3:01
4TH & 11
OPP 29
+46
82.5%
Chase Allen 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5DOWNS
12 plays · 28 yds · 3:1017% → 19%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
82.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 7 yds to the TXST 36Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 3
OWN 36
-5
82.4%
Texas State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TXST 31Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+6
82.7%
Donerio Davenport run for 6 yds to the TXST 37Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 2
OWN 37
0
81.9%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:01
4TH & 2
OWN 37
+6
82.4%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 6 yds to the TXST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
81.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 9 yds to the UTSA 48Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+2
81.3%
Donerio Davenport run for 2 yds to the UTSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
81.4%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
81.4%
Donerio Davenport run for 4 yds to the UTSA 42Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 42
-1
80.8%
TJ Finley run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 43Similar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
81.3%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6TD
6 plays · 57 yds · 1:5783% → 85%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
82.5%
Robert Henry run for 2 yds to the UTSA 45Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+17
82.5%
Robert Henry run for 17 yds to the TXST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
82.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 3 yds to the TXST 35Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+4
82.8%
Robert Henry run for 4 yds to the TXST 31Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+11
82.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 11 yds to the TXST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
84.8%
Rocko Griffin run for 20 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5715% → 15%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.8%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the TXST 28Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
84.6%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TXST 30Similar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
84.8%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:51
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
84.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 48 yds, downed at the UTSA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:5084% → 84%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
83.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the UTSA 25Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+12
83.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 12 yds to the UTSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
84.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Houston Thomas for 11 yds to the UTSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
84.6%
Kevorian Barnes run for 11 yds to the TXST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
84.7%
Frank Harris run for 2 yds to the TXST 39Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+2
84.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 2 yds to the TXST 37Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
84.3%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+3
83.7%
Frank Harris run for 3 yds to the TXST 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 3:5016% → 24%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
84.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 11 yds to the TXST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
84.0%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
84.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the TXST 45Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+10
84.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Drew Donley for 10 yds to the UTSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
83.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the UTSA 43Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
83.5%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+11
83.7%
TJ Finley run for 11 yds to the UTSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
83.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 6 yds to the UTSA 26Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 4
OPP 26
0
82.8%
Donerio Davenport run for no gain to the UTSA 26Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+23
83.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Drew Donley for 23 yds to the UTSA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
75.8%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 3 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 12 yds · 3:3580% → 77%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
79.7%
Rocko Griffin run for 1 yd to the UTSA 29Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+1
79.5%
Rocko Griffin run for 1 yd to the UTSA 30Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+8
78.8%
Frank Harris run for 8 yds to the UTSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
80.4%
Robert Henry run for 4 yds to the UTSA 42Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+4
81.0%
Robert Henry run for 4 yds to the UTSA 46Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+9
80.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 9 yds to the TXST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
81.4%
Robert Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 47Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 12
OPP 47
-5
80.7%
Eddie Lee Marburger sacked by Kamren Washington for a loss of 5 yards to the UTSA 48Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 17
OWN 48
-8
78.4%
Eddie Lee Marburger sacked by Ben Bell for a loss of 8 yards to the UTSA 40Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 25
OWN 40
0
77.2%
Lucas Dean punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11FG
8 plays · 64 yds · 1:1221% → 29%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
79.5%
TJ Finley run for 3 yds to the TXST 14Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+10
79.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Drew Donley for 10 yds to the TXST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+23
79.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Drew Donley for 23 yds to the TXST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+28
77.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 28 yds to the UTSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
74.8%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
75.2%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
76.4%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
70.8%
Mason Shipley 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by TSA at TSA24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 2:1075% → 71%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-4
74.7%
Kevorian Barnes run for a loss of 4 yards to the UTSA 14Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 14
OWN 14
+3
74.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 3 yds to the UTSA 17Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 11
OWN 17
-7
73.4%
Frank Harris sacked by Brian Holloway and Terry Webb for a loss of 7 yards to the UTSA 10Similar
Q3 12:45
4TH & 18
OWN 10
0
71.4%
Lucas Dean punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 4:5631% → 35%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
68.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 6 yds to the TXST 48Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+5
68.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the UTSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
67.8%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 15
OWN 48
0
69.9%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 15
OWN 48
0
70.8%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 15
OWN 48
0
71.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 13Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-5
65.0%
Texas State Penalty, False Start (Trenton Scott) to the TXST 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15PUNT
13 plays · 37 yds · 4:0073% → 72%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
72.6%
Kevorian Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 12Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+8
72.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 8 yds to the UTSA 20Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+4
72.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the UTSA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
73.3%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+10
73.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Devin Mccuin for 10 yds to the UTSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
73.6%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the UTSA 38Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
75.2%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+8
73.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 8 yds to the UTSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-9
75.6%
Frank Harris sacked by Ben Bell for a loss of 9 yards to the UTSA 37Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 19
OWN 37
-5
73.3%
Kevorian Barnes run for a loss of 5 yards to the UTSA 32Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 24
OWN 32
-18
71.9%
UTSA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-18 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:49
4TH & 6
50
0
72.4%
Lucas Dean punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Joey Hobert at the TXST 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:5731% → 30%
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
68.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 7 yds to the TXST 22Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+6
68.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 6 yds to the TXST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
68.4%
TJ Finley run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 27Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+1
68.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 1 yd to the TXST 28Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
69.6%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:52
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
69.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 2:3872% → 86%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
71.5%
Robert Henry run for 4 yds to the UTSA 36Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
72.9%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+15
70.8%
Texas State Penalty, Roughing the Passer on CAGE, Bryce enforced (Bryce Cage) to the TXST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-6
74.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for a loss of 6 yards to the UTSA 49Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 16
OWN 49
+1
72.0%
Robert Henry run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 15
50
+30
68.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 30 yds to the TXST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
73.5%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
86.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Willie McCoy for 20 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:4818% → 15%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
81.9%
Calvin Hill run for 7 yds to the TXST 35Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+6
80.5%
Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the TXST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
80.9%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 40Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 11
OWN 40
-7
81.6%
TJ Finley sacked by Trey Moore for a loss of 7 yards to the TXST 33Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 18
OWN 33
+7
83.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Calvin Hill for 7 yds to the TXST 40Similar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
84.7%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19FUMBLE
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:5287% → 89%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
87.4%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the UTSA 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+8
87.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for 8 yds to the UTSA 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
87.4%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the UTSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
88.0%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+13
87.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
50
+12
89.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 12 yds to the TXST 38 Kevorian Barnes fumbled, recovered by TXST Brian HollowaySimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
50
+12
89.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 12 yds to the TXST 38 Kevorian Barnes fumbled, recovered by TXST Brian HollowaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:3116% → 18%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+55
83.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 55 yds to the UTSA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
82.8%
Texas State Penalty, False Start (Trenton Scott) to the UTSA 12Similar
Q4 12:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
0
83.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Donerio Davenport for no gain to the UTSA 12Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
83.3%
Texas State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (TJ Finley) to the UTSA 20Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
-6
86.3%
TJ Finley sacked by Nick Booker-Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the UTSA 26Similar
Q4 10:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 26
+43
82.4%
Mason Shipley 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21FG
15 plays · 46 yds · 4:4280% → 93%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
80.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 11 yds to the UTSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
82.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the UTSA 42Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+7
81.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 7 yds to the UTSA 49Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
81.6%
Frank Harris run for 2 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
82.5%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
82.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the TXST 49Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
80.3%
HARRIS, Frank pass deep to the left incomplete intended for OGLE-KELLOGG, Tykee thrown to the TXS30. PENALTY TXS Offsides on WRIGHT, Deven declined TXS Pass Interference on MILLS, Chris enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the TXS39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
82.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 6 yds to the TXST 33Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+3
83.4%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the TXST 30Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
82.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the TXST 30Similar
Q4 10:29
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+3
81.1%
Frank Harris run for 3 yds to the TXST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
83.4%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the TXST 25Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
83.4%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
82.0%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:47
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+43
92.6%
Chase Allen 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:2610% → 8%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
89.6%
Donerio Davenport run for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 27Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 12
OWN 27
-6
90.6%
TJ Finley sacked by Trey Moore for a loss of 6 yards to the TXST 21Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 18
OWN 21
0
91.2%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 18
OWN 21
0
92.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23END OF GAME
6 plays · 33 yds · 4:1694% → 97%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+23
94.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for 23 yds to the TXST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
94.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the TXST 43Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
94.7%
Frank Harris run for no gain to the TXST 43Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+10
94.3%
Kevorian Barnes run for 10 yds to the TXST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
95.1%
Kneel down by TSA at TXS34 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 34
0
97.1%
Kneel down by TSA at TXS35 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:14
Frank Harris pass complete to Willie McCoy for 20 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)
+12.9
FG · Q4 5:47
Chase Allen 43 yd FG GOOD
+10.5
KEY PLAY · Q3 11:49
Kevorian Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 12
+7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com