Try the model
MEM

Memphis 45 at Temple 21

TEM
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:28 · Reid Bauer punt for 9 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Home team on offense−3.3Pregame prior−24.8Score differential−1.4Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:50: Darvon Hubbard run for 49 yds for a TD (Camden Price PAT MISSED) — TEM win probability +2.0 pts (now 23%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q2 6:41: Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK) — MEM win probability +4.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:22: Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 13 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK) — MEM win probability +6.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:10: E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 29 yds for a TD (E.J. Warner pass to Dante Wright for Two-Point Conversion) — TEM win probability +5.5 pts (now 18%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:14: Blake Watson run for 2 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK) — MEM win probability +8.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 4:23TEM 4th & 1 at MEM 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    23.0%−0.7
    51% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:28MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 41, up 8
    Close callPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:13TEM 4th & 6 at MEM 36, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    23.7%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    23.5%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:48MEM 4th & 11 at MEM 35, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:43TEM 4th & 7 at TEM 25, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:07TEM 4th & 1 at MEM 43, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    17.4%−1.9
    28% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:17TEM 4th & 10 at MEM 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    5.0%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:17MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 41, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:17TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.2%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:28TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 35, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:47MEM 4th & 2 at TEM 3, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.7%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:42TEM 4th & 4 at MEM 37, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:13TEM 4th & 8 at MEM 27, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 14:42MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:50TEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    23.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:50MEM Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:41MEM Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:22MEM Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:10TEM Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    13.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:14MEM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:19MEM Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:38TEM Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1TD
1 play · 54 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
20.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 54 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 2TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:4621% → 23%
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
20.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dante Wright for 12 yds to the TEM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
20.9%
Darvon Hubbard run for 5 yds to the TEM 37Similar
Q1 14:36
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+3
20.9%
Darvon Hubbard run for 3 yds to the TEM 40Similar
Q1 14:36
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+3
20.9%
Darvon Hubbard run for 3 yds to the TEM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
20.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Darvon Hubbard for 5 yds to the TEM 48Similar
Q1 14:36
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+3
20.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dante Wright for 3 yds to the MEM 49Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+49
22.9%
Darvon Hubbard run for 49 yds for a TD (Camden Price PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5577% → 79%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.9%
Blake Watson run for 2 yds to the MEM 27Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
22.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
23.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 9 yds to the MEM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+31
22.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 31 yds to the TEM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
22.4%
Blake Watson run for 5 yds to the TEM 28Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
22.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+17
22.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 17 yds to the TEM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
21.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sutton Smith for 11 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:2022% → 23%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
21.9%
Edward Saydee run for 5 yds to the TEM 28Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+3
22.0%
Edward Saydee run for 3 yds to the TEM 31Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+28
21.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 28 yds to the MEM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
22.6%
Edward Saydee run for 5 yds to the MEM 36Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+1
22.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dante Wright for 1 yd to the MEM 35Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+3
22.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 3 yds to the MEM 32Similar
Q1 4:23
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
23.0%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5578% → 78%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
22.2%
Blake Watson run for 5 yds to the MEM 37Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-8
22.0%
Seth Henigan sacked by Davion Hood for a loss of 8 yards to the MEM 29Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 13
OWN 29
+12
22.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 12 yds to the MEM 41Similar
Q1 2:28
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
22.5%
Reid Bauer punt for 9 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6DOWNS
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:1523% → 23%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
50
+7
23.4%
Darvon Hubbard run for 7 yds to the MEM 43Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-5
23.5%
Temple Penalty, False Start (Zae Baines) to the MEM 48Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+8
23.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 8 yds to the MEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
23.5%
Temple Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MEM 45Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+6
23.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Darvon Hubbard for 6 yds to the MEM 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+3
24.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 3 yds to the MEM 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 36
0
23.9%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 6
OPP 36
0
23.3%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2577% → 77%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
22.6%
Sutton Smith run for 1 yd to the MEM 37Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-2
22.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sutton Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 35Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
23.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:48
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
23.5%
Reid Bauer punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0523% → 22%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
23.0%
Joquez Smith run for 3 yds to the TEM 25Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
23.1%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
22.5%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
22.4%
Dante Atton punt for 46 yds, downed at the MEM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 5:0277% → 83%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
22.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+25
23.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 25 yds to the TEM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
21.8%
Blake Watson run for 8 yds to the TEM 38Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+4
21.8%
Blake Watson run for 4 yds to the TEM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
21.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 8 yds to the TEM 26Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+7
21.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 7 yds to the TEM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
21.6%
Blake Watson run for 11 yds to the TEM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
21.6%
Brandon Thomas run for 5 yds to the TEM 3Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
21.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brendan Doyle for 2 yds to the TEM 1Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.9%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:3418% → 19%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.8%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
17.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 8 yds to the TEM 33Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+15
18.2%
WARNER, E.J. pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CLARK, Reese thrown to the MEM45. PENALTY MEM Pass Interference on COFFEY, An'Darius enforced 15 yards to the TEM48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
19.0%
Temple Penalty, False Start (Wisdom Quarshie) to the TEM 43Similar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 15
OWN 43
0
18.3%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+3
18.2%
Edward Saydee run for 3 yds to the TEM 46Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+11
18.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 11 yds to the MEM 43Similar
Q2 4:07
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
18.8%
run for no gain to the MEM 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
15.2%
Seth Henigan pass intercepted Jacob Hollins return for no gain to the TEM 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12INT
5 plays · 42 yds · 2:1919% → 19%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
19.0%
Darvon Hubbard run for 1 yd to the TEM 49Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+16
19.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 16 yds to the MEM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-7
19.4%
E.J. Warner sacked by William Whitlow Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the MEM 42Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 17
OPP 42
+32
18.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 32 yds to the MEM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
18.8%
E.J. Warner pass intercepted Chandler Martin return for no gain to the MEM 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13TD
11 plays · 98 yds · 1:0986% → 93%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
14.3%
Sutton Smith run for 1 yd to the MEM 3Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+15
14.4%
HENIGAN, Seth pass deep to the right incomplete intended for SCATES, Joe thrown to the TEM49. PENALTY TEM Pass Interference on HAWKINS, Daiyaan enforced 15 yards to the MEM18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
14.2%
Seth Henigan run for 13 yds to the MEM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
14.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
13.9%
HENIGAN, Seth pass deep up the middle intercepted by DERAVIL, Elijah at the TEM25 intended for BLANKUMSEE, DeMeer. Deravil return for 0 yards to the TEM25, End of Play, clock 00:57. PENALTY TEM Pass Interference on RIGBY, Yvandy enforced 15 yards to the MEM46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
13.0%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the right complete for 8 yards to SMITH, Sutton caught at the TEM45 and advanced to the TEM46 (MCMURRAY, Jalen;RIGBY, Yvandy), out of bounds. PENALTY TEM Face mask on MCMURRAY, Jalen enforced 15 yards from the MEM49 to the TEM36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
12.7%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
12.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 5 yds to the TEM 31Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+18
12.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 18 yds to the TEM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
6.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 13 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
10.7%
Edward Saydee run for 7 yds to the TEM 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:5011% → 18%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.8%
Darvon Hubbard run for no gain to the TEM 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
10.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Ian Stewart for 6 yds to the TEM 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
10.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 6 yds to the TEM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
11.2%
Darvon Hubbard run for 1 yd to the TEM 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+24
11.3%
Darvon Hubbard run for 24 yds to the MEM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
12.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Darvon Hubbard for 9 yds to the MEM 29Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+29
18.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 29 yds for a TD (E.J. Warner pass to Dante Wright for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:5686% → 96%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
14.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
14.5%
Blake Watson run for 7 yds to the MEM 42Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+18
14.0%
Blake Watson run for 18 yds to the TEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+22
13.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sutton Smith for 22 yds to the TEM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
13.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 11 yds to the TEM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
13.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the TEM 5Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
13.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 3 yds to the TEM 2Similar
Q3 7:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.3%
Blake Watson run for 2 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:517% → 5%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
6.9%
Edward Saydee run for 2 yds to the TEM 29Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+6
7.0%
Edward Saydee run for 6 yds to the TEM 35Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+5
7.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 5 yds to the TEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
7.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dante Wright for a loss of 2 yards to the TEM 38Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+25
7.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 25 yds to the MEM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
7.9%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
7.8%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
7.7%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:17
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
5.2%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0097% → 97%
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
3.2%
Sutton Smith run for 4 yds to the MEM 41Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
3.2%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
3.2%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:17
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
3.2%
Reid Bauer punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:494% → 4%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
4.4%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
4.4%
Joquez Smith run for 6 yds to the TEM 24Similar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+3
4.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 3 yds to the TEM 27Similar
Q3 3:17
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+2
4.4%
run for 2 yds to the TEM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
4.4%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+6
4.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Reese Clark for 6 yds to the TEM 35Similar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
4.5%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:28
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
3.7%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20FG
8 plays · 32 yds · 4:1398% → 98%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
2.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 13 yds to the TEM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
2.3%
Blake Watson run for 9 yds to the TEM 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 13
-1
2.3%
Blake Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEM 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+3
2.3%
Blake Watson run for 3 yds to the TEM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
2.3%
Brandon Thomas run for 5 yds to the TEM 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+2
2.3%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the TEM 4Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+1
2.3%
Blake Watson run for 1 yd to the TEM 3Similar
Q4 10:47
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+21
1.8%
Tanner Gillis 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 34 yds · 3:292% → 1%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
2.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 8 yds to the TEM 47Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+10
2.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dante Wright for 10 yds to the MEM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
2.3%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
2.2%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+6
2.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dante Wright for 6 yds to the MEM 37Similar
Q4 10:42
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+8
2.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 8 yds to the MEM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
2.5%
Darvon Hubbard run for 2 yds to the MEM 27Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
2.5%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
2.3%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:13
4TH & 8
OPP 27
0
1.3%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 3:5499% → 100%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
1.3%
Blake Watson run for 14 yds to the MEM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
1.2%
Blake Watson run for 7 yds to the MEM 48Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+42
1.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 42 yds to the TEM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
1.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 8 yds to the TEM 2Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
1.2%
Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the TEM 2Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brendan Doyle for 2 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 23TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:360% → 1%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
0.1%
Edward Saydee run for 5 yds to the TEM 25Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+75
0.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 75 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:3899% → 100%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
0.7%
Sutton Smith run for 5 yds to the MEM 15Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+3
0.7%
Sutton Smith run for 3 yds to the MEM 18Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+5
0.8%
Sutton Smith run for 5 yds to the MEM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
0.5%
[NHSG] Kneel down by MEM at MEM18 (team loss of 5), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:14
Blake Watson run for 2 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)
-8.9
TD · Q2 0:22
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 13 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)
-6
TD · Q3 11:10
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 29 yds for a TD (E.J. Warner pass to Dante Wright for Two-Point Conversion)
+5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com