2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadNORF aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreNORF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:36 · Quincy Patterson run for 2 yds to the NORF 37 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:09: Quincy Patterson run for 1 yd for a TD (Camden Price KICK) — TEM win probability +0.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:23: Otto Kuhns pass complete to Aaron Moore for 2 yds for a TD (Grandin Willcox KICK) — NORF win probability +1.5 pts (now 7%) (top driver: NORF has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:00: Joquez Smith run for 51 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK) — TEM win probability +2.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:23: Darvon Hubbard run for 21 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK) — TEM win probability +2.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:24: Quincy Patterson run for 2 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK) — TEM win probability +1.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NORF made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 10:04NORF 4th & 4 at NORF 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snapGo for it4.1%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.1%average punt
- Q1 4:26NORF 4th & 11 at NORF 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.7%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%average punt
- Q1 2:32TEM 4th & 3 at midfield, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt94.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 7:42NORF 4th & 5 at NORF 30, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snapGo for it5.0%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.1%average punt
- Q2 0:59NORF 4th & 15 at TEM 16, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.415% to convertField goalTheir call2.5%81% to makePunt1.5%−1.0average punt
- Q3 13:51NORF 4th & 3 at NORF 42, down 21Close callPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%−0.1average punt
- Q3 10:02TEM 4th & 5 at NORF 20, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snapGo for it98.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalTheir call98.1%75% to makePunt97.4%−0.7average punt
- Q3 8:54NORF 4th & 6 at NORF 26, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q3 7:36TEM 4th & 1 at NORF 39, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.2%70% to convertField goal97.7%−0.536% to makePunt97.7%−0.5average punt
- Q3 7:36TEM 4th & 3 at NORF 30, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.3%52% to convertField goal98.1%−0.256% to makePunt97.9%−0.4average punt
- Q3 3:24TEM 4th & 1 at NORF 2, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.8%60% to convertField goal98.4%−0.494% to makePunt97.3%−1.4average punt
- Q3 0:00NORF 4th & 6 at TEM 26, down 31Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.139% to convertField goal0.1%64% to makePunt-0.2%−0.4average punt
- Q4 12:50NORF 4th & 1 at TEM 1, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%59% to convertField goal-0.0%−0.294% to makePunt-0.4%−0.6average punt
- Q4 8:20NORF 4th & 7 at TEM 32, down 27Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call0.2%51% to makePunt0.0%−0.2average punt
- Q4 1:59TEM 4th & 12 at NORF 18, up 27Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.121% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%79% to makePunt99.6%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NORF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:37TEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.1%97% to makeGo for two96.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:09TEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.5%97% to makeGo for two95.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:23NORF Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.7%97% to makeGo for two6.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:00TEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.1%97% to makeGo for two95.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:23TEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:24TEM Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1TD9 plays · 80 yds · 3:2397% → 96%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+32
96.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 32 yds to the NORF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+17
96.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 17 yds to the NORF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+15
96.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Joquez Smith for 15 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:294% → 4%
Q1 11:33
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
96.3%
Otto Kuhns pass complete to X'Zavion Evans for 5 yds to the NORF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3FUMBLE5 plays · 49 yds · 2:2796% → 96%
Q1 7:37
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+2
95.9%
Edward Saydee run for 2 yds to the NORF 11 Edward Saydee fumbled, recovered by NORF Isaiah HendersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 3:114% → 5%
Q1 7:37
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+4
95.8%
Otto Kuhns pass complete to Tremayne Talbert for 4 yds to the NORF 16Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+15
95.8%
KUHNS, Otto pass up the middle incomplete intended for TALBERT, Tremayne broken up by MCMURRAY, Jalen at the NOR25; QB hurried by JORDAN, Layton. PENALTY TEM Personal Foul on JORDAN, Layton enforced 15 yards from the NOR16 to the NOR31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-5
95.8%
Otto Kuhns sacked by Diwun Black for a loss of 5 yards to the NORF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5TD9 plays · 70 yds · 3:1795% → 96%
NORFDrive 6TD15 plays · 82 yds · 5:394% → 7%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+13
95.6%
Otto Kuhns pass complete to Chris Butler for 13 yds to the TEM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+5
95.6%
Otto Kuhns pass complete to Gregory Perkins for 5 yds to the TEM 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+5
95.6%
KUHNS, Otto sacked for a loss of 1 yard at the TEM30 (BLACK, Diwun). PENALTY TEM Offsides on THOMAS, Tra enforced 5 yards from the TEM29 to the TEM24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+6
95.5%
Otto Kuhns run for 6 yds to the TEM 18 Otto Kuhns fumbled, recovered by NORF Otto Kuhns for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
93.5%
Otto Kuhns pass complete to Aaron Moore for 2 yds for a TD (Grandin Willcox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7TD5 plays · 74 yds · 1:1794% → 96%
Q2 10:17
2ND & 5
OWN 49
-10
94.3%
WARNER, E.J. pass short to the left incomplete intended for BAINES, Zae thrown to the NOR47. PENALTY TEM Holding on WATSON, Luke enforced 10 yards from the TEM49 to the TEM39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+10
94.0%
WARNER, E.J. pass short to the right incomplete intended for SMITH, Joquez thrown to the TEM42. PENALTY NOR Holding on CLARKE, Taevion enforced 10 yards from the TEM39 to the TEM49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:185% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9TD5 plays · 58 yds · 2:1996% → 98%
NORFDrive 10MISSED FG12 plays · 59 yds · 4:243% → 2%
Q2 5:23
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+21
97.6%
Otto Kuhns pass complete to Aaron Moore for 21 yds to the NORF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+9
97.3%
Otto Kuhns pass complete to Andre Pegues for 9 yds to the TEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
97.1%
KUHNS, Otto pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MOORE, Aaron thrown to the TEM2. PENALTY TEM Pass Interference on OSUEKE, Ben enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the TEM11 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
97.1%
Otto Kuhns pass complete to Elyjah Mitchell for 2 yds to the TEM 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11MISSED FG8 plays · 49 yds · 0:5998% → 98%
Q2 0:59
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+13
98.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 13 yds to the TEM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+11
98.3%
WARNER, E.J. pass up the middle incomplete intended for MARTIN-ROBINSON, David broken up by WHITE, Joseph at the NOR43. PENALTY NOR Pass Interference on WHITE, Joseph enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the NOR47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
98.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dante Wright for 16 yds to the NORF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:092% → 2%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
97.7%
KUHNS, Otto pass deep to the right incomplete intended for PEGUES, Andre thrown to the TEM35. PENALTY TEM Offsides on BLACK, Diwun enforced 5 yards from the NOR35 to the NOR40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:51
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
97.6%
Noah Tracey punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the TEM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13FG8 plays · 65 yds · 3:4998% → 98%
Q3 13:51
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-3
98.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Reese Clark for a loss of 3 yards to the TEM 17Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+39
97.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 39 yds to the NORF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+5
98.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 5 yds to the NORF 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:032% → 2%
TEMDrive 15TD13 plays · 48 yds · 5:3098% → 100%
NORFDrive 16DOWNS14 plays · 74 yds · 5:340% → 0%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
99.8%
Otto Kuhns pass complete to Lex Henry for 24 yds to the NORF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+13
99.8%
Otto Kuhns pass complete to Tavian Morris for 13 yds to the TEM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
99.8%
HENRY, Lex rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the TEM25 (WOODBURY, D.J.), out of bounds. PENALTY NOR Holding on MCMILLAN, Dyral enforced 10 yards from the TEM30 to the TEM40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 16
OPP 36
+10
99.8%
Otto Kuhns pass complete to X'Zavion Evans for 10 yds to the TEM 26Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.8%
Otto Kuhns pass complete to X'Zavion Evans for 2 yds to the TEM 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17SF1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 18MISSED FG11 plays · 41 yds · 4:160% → 0%
Q4 10:45
4TH & 3
OWN 34
+5
99.9%
TRACEY, Noah punt 29 yards to the TEM37 downed by HOMUTH, Jayden, clock 10:45. PENALTY TEM Offsides enforced 5 yards from the NOR34 to the NOR39 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+15
99.9%
Temple Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the TEM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-5
99.9%
Norfolk State Penalty, Illegal Snap on WHEATLEY, Garrison enforced (Garrison Wheatley) to the TEM 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19FG10 plays · 50 yds · 6:21100% → 100%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
99.9%
Quincy Patterson pass complete to EJ Wilson Jr. for 4 yds to the NORF 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:23
Darvon Hubbard run for 21 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)
+2.2
TD · Q2 9:00
Joquez Smith run for 51 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)
+2
TD · Q2 10:23
Otto Kuhns pass complete to Aaron Moore for 2 yds for a TD (Grandin Willcox KICK)
-1.5