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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreAKR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:20 · Camden Price 30 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:49: Tahj Bullock run for 2 yds for a TD (Noah Perez KICK) — AKR win probability +9.0 pts (now 41%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:37: DJ Irons pass complete to Myles Walker for 14 yds for a TD (Noah Perez KICK) — AKR win probability +16.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:33: Edward Saydee 7 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — TEM win probability +8.2 pts (now 60%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q4 14:52: E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 1 yd for a TD (E.J. Warner pass to David Martin-Robinson for Two-Point Conversion) — TEM win probability +24.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 2:18: Timeout Akron, clock 02:18 — TEM win probability +16.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 9AKR made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 13:16TEM 4th & 10 at TEM 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snapGo for it74.4%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.6%average punt
- Q1 12:16AKR 4th & 7 at TEM 45, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snapGo for it26.1%−<0.137% to convertField goal26.0%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call26.1%average punt
- Q1 11:13TEM 4th & 3 at TEM 27, down 7Close callPunted · 73.3% before the snapGo for it73.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 9:28AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 26, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snapGo for it27.2%−0.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.4%average punt
- Q1 5:35TEM 4th & 8 at AKR 37, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call70.5%35% to convertField goal70.4%−0.140% to makePunt70.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 4:44AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 39, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snapGo for it30.3%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.6%average punt
- Q1 4:09TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snapGo for it68.7%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.0%average punt
- Q1 2:48AKR 4th & 6 at AKR 43, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snapGo for it32.0%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.2%average punt
- Q2 6:27TEM 4th & 9 at TEM 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snapGo for it56.1%−0.930% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.0%average punt
- Q2 2:27AKR 4th & 1 at TEM 18, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call47.6%71% to convertField goal45.9%−1.879% to makePunt41.4%−6.3average punt
- Q3 9:24AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 37, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snapGo for it46.9%−2.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.0%average punt
- Q3 5:20TEM 4th & 11 at AKR 12, down 5Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.5% before the snapGo for it47.0%−3.022% to convertField goalTheir call49.9%86% to makePunt34.8%−15.2average punt
- Q3 3:13AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 21, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snapGo for it50.4%−4.530% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.8%average punt
- Q4 14:52TEM 4th & 1 at AKR 1, down 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.4%59% to convertField goal38.5%−6.994% to makePunt20.2%−25.2average punt
- Q4 13:02AKR 4th & 16 at AKR 20, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snapGo for it23.3%−3.614% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.0%average punt
- Q4 11:22TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 42, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snapGo for it71.7%−1.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.8%average punt
- Q4 8:01AKR 4th & 18 at AKR 28, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snapGo for it22.0%−4.312% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.3%average punt
- Q4 6:26TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 43, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.8% before the snapGo for it72.9%−1.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 3AKR made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 14:09AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.1%97% to makeGo for two25.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:14TEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.4%97% to makeGo for two70.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:49AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.9%97% to makeGo for two38.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:37AKR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.5%97% to makeGo for two54.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:33TEM Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick54.3%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call54.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 14:52TEM Touchdown, up 1 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick69.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call69.5%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAKRDrive 1TD2 plays · 78 yds · 0:5123% → 23%
TEMDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5377% → 76%
AKRDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0024% → 24%
TEMDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0376% → 75%
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
75.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dante Wright for 5 yds to the TEM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4525% → 26%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
75.0%
DJ Irons pass complete to Alex Adams for a loss of 1 yard to the AKR 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6DOWNS9 plays · 28 yds · 3:5374% → 72%
Q1 9:28
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+6
74.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 6 yds to the AKR 47Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+8
74.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 8 yds to the AKR 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 12
OPP 41
+4
74.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 4 yds to the AKR 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5129% → 29%
Q1 4:44
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
71.2%
Dante Jackson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the TEM 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3571% → 70%
Q1 4:09
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
70.4%
Dante Atton punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bobby Golden at the AKR 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2130% → 30%
Q1 2:48
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
69.6%
Dante Jackson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the TEM 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10TD9 plays · 89 yds · 3:3470% → 75%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
70.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dante Wright for 7 yds to the TEM 31Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+20
70.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 20 yds to the AKR 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+19
69.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dante Wright for 19 yds to the AKR 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
70.0%
WARNER, E.J. pass deep to the right incomplete intended for ANDERSON JR., Amad thrown to the AKR5. PENALTY AKR Pass Interference on TALLANDIER II, Judson enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the AKR11 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
70.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dante Wright for 10 yds to the AKR 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11TD14 plays · 79 yds · 6:1628% → 41%
Q2 14:05
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+11
71.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to Jake Newell for 11 yds to the AKR 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
71.8%
QB Keeper IRONS, DJ rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the AKR42 (MAGEE, Jordan), out of bounds. PENALTY AKR Holding on WILLIAMS, Tyhler enforced 10 yards from the AKR37 to the AKR27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 17
OWN 30
-5
72.3%
Akron Penalty, Illegal Snap on WILLIAMS, Tyhler enforced (Tyhler Williams) to the AKR 25Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 22
OWN 25
+50
72.4%
DJ Irons pass complete to Daniel George for 50 yds to the TEM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+5
70.9%
IRONS, DJ pass to the right complete for 4 yards to ADAMS, Alex caught at the TEM13 and advanced to the TEM16 (SCOTT, Brenyen). PENALTY TEM Offsides on JORDAN, Layton enforced 5 yards from the TEM20 to the TEM15 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1762% → 60%
Q2 7:44
2ND & 4
OWN 25
-5
62.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to EJ Wilson Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the TEM 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13TD9 plays · 45 yds · 4:5042% → 63%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
58.2%
Drake Anderson run for 15 yds to the TEM 30 for a 1ST down Akron Penalty, Offensive Holding (Daniel George) to the TEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
36.8%
DJ Irons pass complete to Myles Walker for 14 yds for a TD (Noah Perez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14FG11 plays · 60 yds · 1:3244% → 54%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
44.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 7 yds to the TEM 25Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+10
44.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 10 yds to the TEM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
44.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 5 yds to the TEM 40Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+14
45.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dante Wright for 14 yds to the AKR 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+16
46.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 16 yds to the AKR 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
48.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 8 yds to the AKR 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15TD8 plays · 77 yds · 3:2748% → 60%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+31
47.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 31 yds to the AKR 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
50.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dante Wright for 5 yds to the AKR 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+28
50.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 28 yds to the AKR 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
60.2%
Edward Saydee 7 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 2:0947% → 47%
TEMDrive 17MISSED FG14 plays · 73 yds · 4:0453% → 51%
Q3 9:24
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+15
53.2%
WARNER, E.J. pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BAINES, Zae thrown to the TEM38. PENALTY AKR Pass Interference on GOLDEN-NELSON, Devonte enforced 15 yards to the TEM33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+20
55.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 20 yds to the AKR 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+11
57.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 11 yds to the AKR 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 5
OPP 23
0
59.1%
WARNER, E.J. pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for ANDERSON JR., Amad thrown to the AKR6. PENALTY AKR Personal Foul on MARTIN, KJ enforced half the distance from the goal, 11 yards from the AKR23 to the AKR12 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 2:0752% → 51%
Q3 5:20
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-7
49.3%
DJ Irons run for a loss of 7 yards to the AKR 21 DJ Irons fumbled, recovered by AKR DJ IronsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19TD11 plays · 50 yds · 3:2153% → 72%
Q3 3:13
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+11
51.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dante Wright for 11 yds to the AKR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+30
53.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 30 yds to the AKR 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
55.1%
WARNER, E.J. pass to the left incomplete intended for BAINES, Zae thrown to the AKR0. PENALTY AKR Pass Interference on TALLANDIER II, Judson enforced 4 yards to the AKR2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
46.9%
WARNER, E.J. pass short to the right incomplete intended for BAINES, Zae broken up by MCNUNNALLY, CJ at the AKR0, clock 14:56. PENALTY AKR Offsides on MCNUNNALLY, CJ enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the AKR2 to the AKR1 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 1 yd for a TD (E.J. Warner pass to David Martin-Robinson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:5628% → 25%
Q4 13:58
3RD & 7
OWN 29
-9
73.5%
DJ Irons sacked by Layton Jordan for a loss of 9 yards to the AKR 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4076% → 75%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
76.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Darvon Hubbard for 3 yds to the TEM 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 22PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 3:2128% → 26%
Q4 11:22
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
72.0%
DJ Irons pass complete to Drake Anderson for no gain to the AKR 26Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+10
73.4%
DJ Irons pass complete to Alex Adams for 10 yds to the AKR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-9
72.8%
DJ Irons sacked by Diwun Black and Corey Yeoman for a loss of 9 yards to the AKR 28Similar
Q4 8:01
4TH & 18
OWN 28
0
74.4%
Dante Jackson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the TEM 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3578% → 77%
Q4 8:01
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+2
78.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to EJ Wilson Jr. for 2 yds to the TEM 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 24INT8 plays · 28 yds · 3:5527% → 27%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER7 plays · -8 yds · 2:1890% → 96%
Q4 2:15
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+5
89.8%
Akron Penalty, Offsides (Joey Hunter) to the AKR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:52
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 1 yd for a TD (E.J. Warner pass to David Martin-Robinson for Two-Point Conversion)
+24.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:18
Timeout Akron, clock 02:18
+16.5
TD · Q2 1:37
DJ Irons pass complete to Myles Walker for 14 yds for a TD (Noah Perez KICK)
-16.3