View as
Win probability · UAB
modelUAB aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playUAB scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:59 · David Martin-Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD (Camden Price KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:22: Lee Beebe run for 7 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK) — UAB win probability +11.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:19: Demetrius Battle run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK) — UAB win probability +12.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:24: Tejhaun Palmer 22 Yd pass from Jacob Zeno (Matt Quinn Kick) — UAB win probability +25.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:59: David Martin-Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD (Camden Price KICK) — TEM win probability +23.0 pts (now 48%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- FG · Q4 6:33: Matt Quinn 26 yd FG GOOD — UAB win probability +13.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UAB made the numbers' call on 2 of 6TEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 13:29UAB 4th & 4 at UAB 44, tiedClose callPunted · 70.9% before the snapGo for it70.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:35UAB 4th & 3 at UAB 49, down 7Close callPunted · 68.0% before the snapGo for it68.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.0%−0.2average punt
- Q1 8:35TEM 4th & 1 at UAB 29, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.6%71% to convertField goal32.2%−0.558% to makePunt31.2%−1.4average punt
- Q2 12:27UAB 4th & 22 at UAB 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snapGo for it58.8%−2.08% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.9%average punt
- Q2 12:27TEM 4th & 4 at UAB 39, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call40.1%48% to convertField goal39.2%−0.936% to makePunt39.3%−0.8average punt
- Q2 6:38TEM 4th & 28 at UAB 45, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snapGo for it42.4%−2.07% to convertField goal43.3%−1.125% to makePuntTheir call44.3%average punt
- Q2 0:00UAB 4th & 4 at TEM 12, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 51.9% before the snapGo for it51.7%45% to convertField goalTheir call51.2%−0.586% to makePunt41.4%−10.3average punt
- Q3 13:44TEM 4th & 3 at TEM 30, up 4Close callPunted · 42.6% before the snapGo for it43.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.9%−0.9average punt
- Q3 12:03UAB 4th & 4 at UAB 34, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snapGo for it55.4%−0.448% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.8%average punt
- Q3 8:46TEM 4th & 9 at TEM 46, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snapGo for it45.1%−1.732% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.7%average punt
- Q3 2:03TEM 4th & 5 at UAB 22, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.9% before the snapGo for it31.8%−0.340% to convertField goalTheir call32.1%72% to makePunt22.3%−9.7average punt
- Q4 12:59TEM 4th & 1 at UAB 1, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.8%59% to convertField goal15.9%−4.994% to makePunt2.9%−17.9average punt
- Q4 6:33UAB 4th & 4 at TEM 9, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snapGo for it60.1%43% to convertField goalTheir call58.1%−1.989% to makePunt35.5%−24.6average punt
- Q4 6:04TEM 4th & 10 at TEM 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snapGo for it24.2%−1.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.6%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UAB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 11:33TEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call30.2%97% to makeGo for two30.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:22UAB Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.0%97% to makeGo for two62.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:10TEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.6%97% to makeGo for two46.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:19UAB Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.1%97% to makeGo for two68.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 14:24UAB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.5%97% to makeGo for two75.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 12:59TEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.5%97% to makeGo for two37.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:32UAB Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.8%97% to makeGo for two94.6%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUABDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 1:3166% → 66%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
66.3%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 9 yds to the UAB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
66.3%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 6 yds to the UAB 44Similar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
66.1%
Patrick Foley punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the TEM 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 2TD6 plays · 83 yds · 1:5634% → 35%
Q1 13:29
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+9
66.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 9 yds to the TEM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
66.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for no gain to the TEM 27Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+71
64.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dante Wright for 71 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 24 yds · 2:5865% → 63%
Q1 11:33
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+8
64.8%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 8 yds to the UAB 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 4FUMBLE16 plays · 74 yds · 6:5137% → 43%
Q1 8:35
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+6
63.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dante Wright for 6 yds to the TEM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+18
63.1%
E.J. Warner run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, Defensive Holding (Keondre Swoopes) to the UAB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
62.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 1 yd to the UAB 39Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+10
62.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Reese Clark for 10 yds to the UAB 29Similar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
57.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 9 yds Zae Baines fumbled, recovered by UAB Everett Roussaw Jr. Shotgun Warner,E.J. pass complete short left to Baines,Zae for 9 yards to the UAB18 fumbled by Baines,Zae at UAB20 forced by McWilliams,Mac recovered by UAB Roussaw Jr.,Everett at UAB18, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 28 yds · 4:1759% → 56%
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
59.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Zeno,Jacob pass incomplete deep right to Palmer,Tejhaun PENALTY TEM Pass Interference (Deravil,Elijah) 15 yards from UAB18 to UAB33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+13
59.1%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Dallas Payne for 13 yds to the UAB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
60.1%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 5 yds to the TEM 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 47
-6
59.1%
Jacob Zeno sacked by Jerquavion Mahone for a loss of 6 yards to the UAB 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 47
-1
58.1%
Jacob Zeno sacked by Conlan Greene for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 46Similar
Q2 12:27
4TH & 22
OWN 46
0
56.0%
Patrick Foley punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the TEM 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6PUNT16 plays · 44 yds · 5:4944% → 49%
Q2 12:27
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+15
57.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 15 yds to the TEM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
55.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 3 yds to the TEM 32Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+7
55.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Darvon Hubbard for 7 yds to the TEM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
54.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Warner,E.J. pass incomplete short left to Wright,Dante broken up by Lee III,Ricky QB hurried by Penn,Kevin PENALTY UAB Pass Interference (Mayes,BJ) 16 yards from TEM39 to UAB45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
54.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Joquez Smith for 6 yds to the UAB 39Similar
Q2 12:27
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+12
55.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Reese Clark for 12 yds to the UAB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 8
OPP 25
-15
54.5%
E.J. Warner sacked by Desmond Little for a loss of 15 yards to the UAB 40Similar
Q2 12:27
4TH & 23
OPP 40
-5
56.4%
PENALTY TEM Delay Of Game (Atton,Dante) 5 yards from UAB40 to UAB45. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 7TD9 plays · 90 yds · 2:1652% → 67%
Q2 6:38
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+59
51.7%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Corri Milliner for 59 yds to the TEM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-8
55.5%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to T.J. Jones for 2 yds to the TEM 23 UAB Penalty, Offensive Holding (Terrell McDonald) to the TEM 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8TD7 plays · 76 yds · 2:0740% → 51%
Q2 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
59.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 5 yds to the TEM 29Similar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+10
60.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 10 yds to the TEM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
58.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dante Wright for 14 yds to the UAB 47 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+47
49.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 47 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 9FG13 plays · 63 yds · 2:1049% → 61%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
50.5%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 7 yds to the UAB 48Similar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
56.6%
PENALTY UAB False Start (Palmer,Tejhaun) 5 yards from TEM18 to TEM23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 15
OPP 23
+5
55.0%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 5 yds to the TEM 18Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+6
56.9%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Samario Rudolph for 6 yds to the TEM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1447% → 45%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4155% → 52%
TEMDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 3:1749% → 49%
Q3 12:03
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+5
51.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dante Wright for 5 yds to the TEM 37Similar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+8
50.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 8 yds to the TEM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-8
49.0%
E.J. Warner sacked by Fish McWilliams for a loss of 8 yards to the TEM 37Similar
Q3 8:46
4TH & 9
OWN 46
+21
50.9%
Dante Atton punt for 43 yds , Mac McWilliams returns for 21 yds to the UAB 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 13TD8 plays · 68 yds · 3:2752% → 70%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+26
52.1%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 26 yds to the TEM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14FG13 plays · 55 yds · 3:1134% → 45%
Q3 5:14
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+12
62.3%
Shotgun Warner,E.J. pass intercepted by Dempsey,Colby at UAB39 PENALTY UAB Pass Interference (Dempsey,Colby) 12 yards from TEM48 to UAB40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
61.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 13 yds to the UAB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+5
61.5%
Shotgun Saydee,Edward rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UAB23 (Miller,Damien; McWilliams,Fish) PENALTY UAB Offside (Mayes,BJ) 5 yards from UAB27 to UAB22. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 15TD8 plays · 87 yds · 2:3960% → 87%
Q3 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+5
59.6%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 5 yds to the UAB 18Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+18
58.1%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 18 yds to the UAB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+30
60.6%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 30 yds to the TEM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16TD6 plays · 46 yds · 1:1724% → 48%
UABDrive 17FG14 plays · 66 yds · 6:2660% → 75%
Q4 12:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
60.6%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Amare Thomas for 6 yds to the UAB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
66.3%
(09:24) No Huddle-Shotgun Brown Jr.,Jermaine rush left for 4 yards gain to the TEM11 (Hood,Davion) PENALTY UAB Holding (Parker,Will) 10 yards from TEM15 to TEM25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 21
OPP 26
+7
64.3%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 7 yds to the TEM 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2231% → 27%
Q4 6:04
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
72.8%
Dante Atton punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Fred Farrier II at the UAB 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 19TD10 plays · 62 yds · 3:3276% → 96%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:24
Tejhaun Palmer 22 Yd pass from Jacob Zeno (Matt Quinn Kick)
+25.9
TD · Q4 12:59
David Martin-Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD (Camden Price KICK)
-23
FG · Q4 6:33
Matt Quinn 26 yd FG GOOD
+13.3