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UAB

UAB 6 at Navy 31

NAVY
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreUAB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+2.1NAVY 47.9%Matt Quinn 29 yd FG GOODAWAY 6 - HOME 7 · Q2 6:22
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:22 · Matt Quinn 29 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Home team on offense−0.4Pregame prior−7.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.1Blowout margin+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:49: Xavier Arline pass complete to Regis Velez for 45 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +6.2 pts (now 49%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 9:13: Nathan Kirkwood 31 yd FG GOOD — NAVY win probability +4.5 pts (now 61%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:00: Xavier Arline run for no gain to the UAB 28 — NAVY win probability +9.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:08: Daba Fofana run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +18.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:12: Xavier Arline run for 50 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +7.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UAB made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 11:50NAVY 4th & 8 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:53UAB 4th & 3 at UAB 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:45NAVY 4th & 3 at UAB 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    44.5%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    43.2%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:23UAB 4th & 5 at UAB 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:30UAB 4th & 5 at NAVY 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    46.1%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:47NAVY 4th & 13 at NAVY 17, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:22UAB 4th & 11 at NAVY 11, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−5.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:24UAB 4th & 5 at NAVY 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    44.6%−4.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:58NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 30, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:19UAB 4th & 8 at UAB 38, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:13NAVY 4th & 3 at UAB 14, up 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%−0.6
    84% to make
    Punt
    45.7%−11.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:52UAB 4th & 15 at UAB 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−2.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:30NAVY 4th & 1 at UAB 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    64.4%−4.6
    77% to make
    Punt
    50.7%−18.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:46UAB 4th & 15 at NAVY 43, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    8.3%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:03UAB 4th & 3 at NAVY 3, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 2:49NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 10:08NAVY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 4:12NAVY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:03NAVY Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 3:1039% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
38.7%
Alex Tecza run for 8 yds to the NAVY 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+2
38.7%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the NAVY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
38.7%
Brandon Chatman run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 47Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+3
39.9%
Brandon Chatman run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 8
50
0
39.9%
Xavier Arline pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:50
4TH & 8
50
0
39.7%
Riley Riethman punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Mac McWilliams at the UAB 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5760% → 59%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
39.8%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the UAB 16Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+6
39.8%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Amare Thomas for 6 yds to the UAB 22Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 3
OWN 22
0
39.9%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for no gain to the UAB 22Similar
Q1 9:53
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
40.7%
Patrick Foley punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3INT
6 plays · 41 yds · 3:0841% → 42%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+36
41.1%
Alex Tecza run for 36 yds to the UAB 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
41.2%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the UAB 5Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
41.2%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the UAB 3Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
42.2%
Xavier Arline run for no gain to the UAB 3Similar
Q1 6:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
41.9%
Xavier Arline pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2259% → 58%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
41.3%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the UAB 21Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
41.3%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+4
41.7%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 4 yds to the UAB 25Similar
Q1 5:23
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
42.3%
Patrick Foley punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 2:3442% → 49%
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
41.9%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+8
42.0%
Eli Heidenreich run for 8 yds to the NAVY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
42.5%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the NAVY 42Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+13
42.6%
Alex Tecza run for 13 yds to the UAB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
48.9%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Regis Velez for 45 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 6FG
6 plays · 51 yds · 2:1953% → 54%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
46.8%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 4 yds to the UAB 33Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+42
46.5%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Bryce Damous for 42 yds to the NAVY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
44.9%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the NAVY 30Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 15
OPP 30
0
45.7%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 15
OPP 30
+10
46.7%
Jacob Zeno run for 10 yds to the NAVY 20Similar
Q1 0:30
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
45.9%
Matt Quinn 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 2:1346% → 46%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
46.1%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the NAVY 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
46.1%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-10
45.6%
ARLINE, Xavier pass to the right complete for 10 yards to CHATMAN, Brandon caught at the NAV25 and advanced to the NAV35 (MILLER, Damon). PENALTY NAV Pass Interference on TECZA, Alex enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards to the NAV13 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 13
-5
45.3%
Navy Penalty, False Start (Connor McMahon) to the NAVY 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 8
+9
45.2%
Alex Tecza run for 9 yds to the NAVY 17Similar
Q2 12:47
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
45.7%
Riley Riethman punt for 46 yds , Mac McWilliams returns for no gain to the UAB 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 8FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 6:2553% → 52%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
47.4%
Lee Beebe run for 13 yds to the UAB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
46.5%
ZENO, Jacob pass up the middle incomplete intended for RUDOLPH, Samario thrown to the UAB50; QB hurried by HARBOUR, Will. PENALTY NAV Roughing the Passer on HARBOUR, Will enforced 15 yards from the UAB43 to the NAV42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
45.9%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Dallas Payne for 1 yd to the NAVY 41Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+5
46.0%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Lee Beebe for 5 yds to the NAVY 36Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+14
45.8%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Dallas Payne for 14 yds to the NAVY 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
44.9%
Jacob Zeno sacked by Colin Ramos for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 23Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+8
45.2%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 8 yds to the NAVY 15Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+7
45.8%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 7 yds to the NAVY 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
44.9%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for no gain to the NAVY 8Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
44.9%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the NAVY 6Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
45.8%
Jacob Zeno sacked by Justin Reed and Luke Pirris for a loss of 5 yards to the NAVY 11Similar
Q2 6:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
47.9%
Matt Quinn 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · 30 yds · 2:4850% → 51%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
49.6%
Xavier Arline run for 9 yds to the NAVY 29Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
50.9%
Xavier Arline pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
49.2%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the NAVY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
49.8%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Alex Tecza for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 28Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+22
50.7%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 22 yds Brandon Chatman fumbled, recovered by UAB Keondre Swoopes , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 10MISSED FG
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:1053% → 52%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
50
+7
46.6%
Lee Beebe run for 7 yds to the NAVY 43Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+13
46.3%
Lee Beebe run for 13 yds to the NAVY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
45.6%
Lee Beebe run for 4 yds to the NAVY 26Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+2
45.2%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the NAVY 24Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 4
OPP 24
-1
45.5%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 25Similar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+42
47.8%
Matt Quinn 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:2651% → 51%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
51.2%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the NAVY 30Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-2
52.1%
Xavier Arline sacked by Desmond Little for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 28Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+2
51.8%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the NAVY 30Similar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
51.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3949% → 46%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
51.3%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 7 yds to the UAB 43Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
48.9%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-5
49.1%
UAB Penalty, False Start (Adam Lepkowski) to the UAB 38Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
51.4%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
53.8%
Patrick Foley punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
53.0%
Kneel down by NAV at NAV11 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 14INT
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:0149% → 47%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
51.3%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the UAB 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+5
51.5%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 5 yds to the UAB 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+26
51.4%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 26 yds to the NAVY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
48.1%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 1 yd to the NAVY 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-10
48.1%
BEEBE, Lee rush to the left for a loss of 1 yard to the NAV45 (CROMWELL, Clay), out of bounds. PENALTY UAB Holding on JONES, Luke enforced 10 yards from the NAV44 to the UAB46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 46
0
50.5%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Amare Thomas for no gain to the UAB 46Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 19
OWN 46
0
52.7%
Jacob Zeno pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15FG
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:4658% → 61%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
57.9%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 10 yds to the UAB 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
57.8%
Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the UAB 18Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+4
57.8%
Brandon Chatman run for 4 yds to the UAB 14Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 3
OPP 14
0
56.4%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the UAB 14Similar
Q3 9:13
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+31
60.9%
Nathan Kirkwood 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2142% → 38%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
57.6%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the UAB 35Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
57.7%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 8
OWN 35
-7
59.2%
Jacob Zeno sacked by Justin Reed for a loss of 7 yards to the UAB 28Similar
Q3 7:52
4TH & 15
OWN 28
0
61.8%
Patrick Foley punt for 52 yds, downed at the NAVY 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17TD
23 plays · 80 yds · 12:4461% → 90%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
60.9%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the NAVY 25Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
61.2%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 27 Alex Tecza fumbled, recovered by NAVY Xavier Arline [SG] TECZA, Alex rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards, TECZA, Alex fumbled at NAV29 forced by SWOOPES, Keondre, recovered by NAV ARLINE, Xavier at the NAV27, returned 0 yards to the NAV27, End of Play.Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+6
60.0%
Eli Heidenreich run for 6 yds to the NAVY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
61.3%
Xavier Arline run for 7 yds to the NAVY 40Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+8
63.5%
Xavier Arline run for 8 yds to the NAVY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
63.6%
Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the UAB 49Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
64.1%
Xavier Arline run for no gain to the UAB 49Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+7
62.9%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 7 yds to the UAB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
64.4%
Navy Penalty, False Start (Joshua Pena) to the UAB 47Similar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+1
62.8%
Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd to the UAB 46Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+3
62.5%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 3 yds to the UAB 43Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+15
61.8%
Xavier Arline run for 15 yds to the UAB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
70.9%
Xavier Arline run for no gain to the UAB 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+8
70.8%
Eli Heidenreich run for 8 yds to the UAB 20Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+1
69.9%
Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd to the UAB 19Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+2
68.4%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the UAB 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
71.4%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the UAB 16Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 9
OPP 16
-5
71.4%
ARLINE, Xavier pass to the right incomplete intended for CHATMAN, Brandon thrown to the UAB10. PENALTY NAV Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on PENA, Joshua enforced 5 yards from the UAB16 to the UAB21 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 14
OPP 21
+13
70.7%
Eli Heidenreich run for 13 yds to the UAB 8Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+4
69.9%
Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the UAB 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
71.4%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the UAB 2Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.8%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:2212% → 9%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
87.6%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 8 yds to the UAB 29Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+5
85.6%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the UAB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
86.1%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to T.J. Jones for 13 yds to the UAB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
84.8%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 15 yds to the NAVY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
84.1%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
84.3%
Lee Beebe run for 6 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 4
OPP 32
-5
83.8%
UAB Penalty, False Start (Adam Lepkowski) to the NAVY 37Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 9
OPP 37
-5
84.9%
UAB Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jacob Zeno) to the NAVY 42Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 14
OPP 42
-1
87.2%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Lee Beebe for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 43Similar
Q4 6:46
4TH & 15
OPP 43
0
90.6%
Patrick Foley punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 2:3491% → 98%
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
91.1%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 9 yds to the NAVY 23Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 1
OWN 23
0
91.5%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the NAVY 23Similar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+2
91.4%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the NAVY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
91.3%
Eli Heidenreich run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
50
+50
98.3%
Xavier Arline run for 50 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 20INT TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 2:093% → 1%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
97.3%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 1 yd to the UAB 31Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+9
97.4%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Amare Thomas for 9 yds to the UAB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
97.3%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 11 yds to the NAVY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
97.2%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
97.3%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Lee Witherspoon for 9 yds to the NAVY 40Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+7
97.0%
Lee Witherspoon run for 7 yds to the NAVY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
96.8%
Navy Penalty, Personal Foul (Landon Robinson) to the NAVY 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
96.7%
Navy Penalty, Personal Foul (Will Harbour) to the NAVY 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-97
99.3%
Rayuan Lane III 97 Yd Interception Return (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 21DOWNS
15 plays · 67 yds · 2:001% → 1%
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.4%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Lee Witherspoon for 4 yds to the UAB 34Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
99.4%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Dallas Payne for 5 yds to the UAB 39Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+11
99.4%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Dallas Payne for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
50
0
99.4%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 10
50
+18
99.4%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Amare Thomas for 18 yds to the NAVY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
99.3%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Lee Beebe for 4 yds to the NAVY 28Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+2
99.2%
Jacob Zeno run for 2 yds to the NAVY 26Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+6
99.3%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Samario Rudolph for 6 yds to the NAVY 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
99.2%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Dallas Payne for 10 yds to the NAVY 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
99.4%
Jacob Zeno run for 6 yds to the NAVY 4Similar
Q4 0:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.5%
Jacob Zeno sacked by Landon Robinson for 0 yards to the NAVY 4Similar
Q4 0:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
99.6%
Lee Witherspoon run for 1 yd to the NAVY 3Similar
Q4 0:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.5%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
99.9%
Kneel down by NAV at NAV2 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:08
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
+18.4
KEY PLAY · Q3 0:00
Xavier Arline run for no gain to the UAB 28
+9
TD · Q4 4:12
Xavier Arline run for 50 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
+7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com