Try the model
UAB

UAB 20 at UTSA 41

UTSA
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · Alamodome
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreUAB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:56 · Patrick Foley punt for 53 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 59Pregame prior+17.0Home team on offense+9.3Score differential+2.9Garbage-time factor+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:10: Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 4 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK) — UTSA win probability +3.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:09: Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 25 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK) — UAB win probability +13.1 pts (now 29%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  3. TD · Q3 5:54: Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Allen KICK) — UTSA win probability +8.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:09: Chase Allen 53 yd FG GOOD — UTSA win probability +4.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:40: Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Allen KICK) — UTSA win probability +3.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UAB made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 1:19UAB 4th & 1 at UAB 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.8%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:00UAB 4th & 8 at UTSA 8, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    17.0%−4.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:50UTSA 4th & 6 at UAB 28, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    75.3%−3.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:56UAB 4th & 18 at UAB 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−1.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:37UTSA 4th & 14 at UAB 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:41UAB 4th & 10 at UTSA 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−3.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00UAB 4th & 1 at UAB 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.0%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:46UAB 4th & 14 at UAB 4, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−2.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:34UTSA 4th & 11 at UAB 40, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:47UAB 4th & 19 at UAB 38, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−1.6
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:09UTSA 4th & 22 at UAB 35, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%−1.6
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.8%
    45% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:39UAB 4th & 12 at UTSA 25, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:27UTSA 4th & 10 at UAB 16, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UAB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:05UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:41UTSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:21UAB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:10UTSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:09UAB Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:54UTSA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:40UTSA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5577% → 77%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Devin McCuin for 4 yds to the UTSA 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
76.9%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
76.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 7 yds to the UTSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
76.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Devin McCuin for 10 yds to the UTSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
76.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Devin McCuin for 17 yds to the UAB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
76.9%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the UAB 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+14
76.9%
Robert Henry run for 14 yds to the UAB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
77.3%
Robert Henry run for 19 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · -15 yds · 1:1823% → 23%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
77.0%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the UAB 21Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-5
77.0%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Amare Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the UAB 16Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 19
OWN 16
-6
77.2%
Jacob Zeno sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the UAB 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3TD
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 10:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
78.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 10 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 4TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:2022% → 24%
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
78.0%
run for 9 yds to the UAB 34Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+23
77.8%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 23 yds to the UTSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
77.8%
UAB Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UTSA 48Similar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+4
77.9%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Amare Thomas for 4 yds to the UTSA 44Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+4
77.9%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 4 yds to the UTSA 40Similar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+20
77.8%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 35 yds to the UTSA 5 UAB Penalty, Personal Foul (Jermaine Brown Jr.) to the UTSA 43Similar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+19
77.9%
Jacob Zeno run for 19 yds to the UTSA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
77.6%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 9 yds to the UTSA 15 for a 1ST down UTSA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dywan Griffin) to the UTSA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
77.6%
Lee Beebe run for 3 yds to the UTSA 4Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
77.6%
Lee Beebe run for 1 yd to the UTSA 3Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
76.4%
Jacob Zeno run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5TD
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:0078% → 82%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
78.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the UAB 40Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+11
78.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Devin McCuin for 11 yds to the UAB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
78.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 7 yds to the UAB 22Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 3
OPP 22
0
78.0%
HARRIS, Frank pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MCCUIN, Devin thrown to the UAB0. PENALTY UAB Pass Interference on DEMPSEY, Colby enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the UAB7 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
78.0%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
78.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the UAB 4Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
81.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 4 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 6FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 4:0320% → 21%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.5%
Lee Beebe run for 2 yds to the UAB 27Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
80.4%
Lee Beebe run for 3 yds to the UAB 30Similar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
81.1%
Jacob Zeno run for 4 yds to the UAB 34Similar
Q1 1:19
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
81.2%
Jacob Zeno run for 2 yds to the UAB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+55
81.0%
Terrell McDonald pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 55 yds to the UTSA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
80.4%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the UTSA 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
80.4%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the UTSA 6Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
80.8%
Lee Beebe run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTSA 8Similar
Q2 14:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
79.0%
Matt Quinn 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7FG
14 plays · 40 yds · 5:0480% → 85%
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
79.5%
Robert Henry run for 3 yds to the UTSA 35Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+11
79.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 11 yds to the UTSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
80.1%
Robert Henry run for 9 yds to the UAB 45Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+2
80.3%
Robert Henry run for 2 yds to the UAB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
80.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the UAB 41Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-5
80.1%
UTSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UAB 46Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+7
81.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to David Amador for 7 yds to the UAB 39Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+7
81.8%
Frank Harris run for 7 yds to the UAB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
82.2%
Willie McCoy run for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 35Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 13
OPP 35
0
81.9%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 13
OPP 35
+7
82.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Willie McCoy for 7 yds to the UAB 28Similar
Q2 8:50
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+46
84.8%
Chase Allen 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:5417% → 16%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
83.5%
UAB Penalty, False Start (Quez Yates) to the UAB 20Similar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+9
83.7%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Amare Thomas for 9 yds to the UAB 29Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-3
83.3%
Amare Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 26Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-9
83.7%
Jacob Zeno sacked by Rashad Wisdom for a loss of 9 yards to the UAB 17Similar
Q2 6:56
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
84.5%
Patrick Foley punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 3:1985% → 86%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
84.9%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the UTSA 34Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+6
84.9%
Kevorian Barnes run for 6 yds to the UTSA 40Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
85.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the UTSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
85.4%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
85.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the UTSA 43Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+14
84.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 14 yds to the UAB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
85.5%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
85.4%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-4
85.1%
Frank Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the UAB 47Similar
Q2 3:37
4TH & 14
OPP 47
0
85.6%
Lucas Dean punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 10FG
7 plays · 66 yds · 1:5615% → 16%
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+31
84.9%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 31 yds to the UAB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
84.2%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Amare Thomas for 6 yds to the UTSA 49Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+29
83.4%
Jacob Zeno run for 29 yds to the UTSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
82.4%
Jermaine Brown Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
82.5%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
83.3%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
83.6%
Matt Quinn 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11INT
9 plays · 48 yds · 1:1485% → 86%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
50
+11
85.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 11 yds to the UAB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
85.3%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+13
85.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 13 yds to the UAB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
85.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Robert Henry for 4 yds to the UAB 22Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+1
85.8%
Frank Harris run for 1 yd to the UAB 21Similar
Q2 0:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
85.9%
HARRIS, Frank pass short to the left incomplete intended for CEPHUS, Joshua thrown to the UAB0. PENALTY UAB Pass Interference on MCWILLIAMS, Mac enforced 3 yards to the UAB2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
86.0%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
85.9%
Joshua Cephus pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
85.3%
[NH] Kneel down by ZENO, Jacob at UAB19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 13TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5117% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
82.8%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Amare Thomas for 11 yds to the UAB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
82.3%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 6 yds to the UAB 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-4
81.7%
Jacob Zeno sacked by Trey Moore for a loss of 4 yards to the UAB 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+7
82.6%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 7 yds to the UAB 45Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+1
82.5%
run for 1 yd to the UAB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
81.7%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the UAB 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+2
81.4%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 2 yds to the UTSA 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
81.5%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:03
4TH & 5
OPP 49
+5
83.3%
ZENO, Jacob pass up the middle incomplete intended for BROWN JR., Jermaine thrown to the TSA42; QB hurried by ROBINSON, Ken and MOORE, Trey, clock 11:03. PENALTY TSA Pass Interference on TAYLOR, Donyai enforced at the spot of the foul for 5 yards to the TSA44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
81.7%
Jacob Zeno run for 5 yds to the UTSA 39Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-3
81.5%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Amare Thomas for a loss of 3 yards to the UTSA 42Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+17
84.2%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 17 yds to the UTSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
71.1%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 25 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:1576% → 88%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
75.9%
HENRY, Robert rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the TSA37 (FAIRBANKS II, Michael). PENALTY Before the snap, UAB Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the TSA35 to the TSA40. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 5
OWN 40
+3
77.6%
Robert Henry run for 3 yds to the UTSA 43Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+4
77.5%
Robert Henry run for 4 yds to the UTSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
77.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 17 yds to the UAB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
78.1%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
78.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 9 yds to the UAB 27Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+12
78.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for 12 yds to the UAB 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
79.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for 6 yds to the UAB 9Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+8
79.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for 8 yds to the UAB 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
79.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the UAB 1Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:0113% → 10%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
87.3%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
87.4%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for no gain to the UAB 8Similar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 10
OWN 8
0
87.8%
UAB Penalty, False Start (Will Parker) to the UAB 4Similar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 14
OWN 4
0
87.8%
Jacob Zeno run for no gain to the UAB 4Similar
Q3 3:46
4TH & 14
OWN 4
0
90.0%
Patrick Foley punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:1289% → 89%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
88.7%
Frank Harris run for 2 yds to the UTSA 47Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+14
88.7%
Kevorian Barnes run for 14 yds to the UAB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
88.7%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the UAB 38Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 9
OPP 38
-5
88.6%
UTSA Penalty, False Start (Devin McCuin) to the UAB 43Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 14
OPP 43
+3
88.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 3 yds to the UAB 40Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 11
OPP 40
0
87.9%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:34
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
88.6%
Lucas Dean punt for 25 yds, downed at the UAB 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:4711% → 10%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
89.1%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Terrell McDonald for 12 yds to the UAB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+20
88.7%
Brandon Buckhaulter run for 20 yds to the UAB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
87.2%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
87.5%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-9
88.3%
Jacob Zeno sacked by Trey Moore and Jimmori Robinson for a loss of 9 yards to the UAB 38Similar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 19
OWN 38
0
89.9%
Patrick Foley punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18FG
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:3890% → 95%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
90.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Robert Henry for 5 yds to the UTSA 35Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+42
90.2%
Robert Henry run for 42 yds to the UAB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
90.9%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
90.8%
Robert Henry run for 3 yds to the UAB 20Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-15
90.6%
Frank Harris sacked for a loss of 15 yards to the UAB 35Similar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 22
OPP 35
+53
95.0%
Chase Allen 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 19INT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:516% → 6%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
94.0%
run for a loss of 5 yards to the UAB 20Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
94.4%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
94.5%
Jacob Zeno pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20TD
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:3896% → 99%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
96.1%
Frank Harris run for 5 yds to the UAB 12Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+7
96.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for 7 yds to the UAB 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
96.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the UAB 4Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
96.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the UAB 1Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.3%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 21DOWNS
13 plays · -12 yds · 5:491% → 1%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
98.9%
Landry Lyddy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+7
98.9%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Dallas Payne for 7 yds to the UAB 35Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+9
98.9%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 9 yds to the UAB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
98.9%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the UAB 46Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+4
98.9%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Dallas Payne for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 4
50
+4
98.9%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Amare Thomas for 4 yds to the UTSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
98.8%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Amare Thomas for 8 yds to the UTSA 38Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+15
98.7%
LYDDY, Landry pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for WITHERSPOON, Lee thrown to the TSA10. PENALTY TSA Pass Interference on MORRIS, Avery enforced 15 yards to the TSA23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-7
98.6%
Landry Lyddy sacked by Trey Moore for a loss of 7 yards to the UTSA 30Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 17
OPP 30
-2
98.7%
Landry Lyddy sacked by Joe Evans for a loss of 2 yards to the UTSA 32Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 19
OPP 32
+7
98.8%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Amare Thomas for 7 yds to the UTSA 25Similar
Q4 2:39
4TH & 12
OPP 25
0
99.4%
Landry Lyddy pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22MISSED FG
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:12100% → 100%
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
99.8%
Kaedric Cobbs run for 2 yds to the UAB 14Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 8
OPP 14
-10
99.8%
COBBS, Kaedric rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the UAB12 (MOORE, Michael). PENALTY TSA Holding on ALLEN, Demetris enforced 10 yards from the UAB14 to the UAB24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 18
OPP 24
+2
99.8%
Kaedric Cobbs run for 2 yds to the UAB 22Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 16
OPP 22
+6
99.8%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador for 6 yds to the UAB 16Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+33
99.8%
Chase Allen 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 23END OF GAME
7 plays · 38 yds · 1:270% → 0%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
99.8%
Harrison Barker run for 9 yds to the UAB 29Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Harrison Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+12
99.8%
Harrison Barker run for 12 yds to the UAB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Harrison Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-5
99.8%
UAB Penalty, False Start (Bryce Damous) to the UAB 36Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+5
99.8%
Harrison Barker run for 5 yds to the UAB 41Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+17
99.8%
Harrison Barker pass complete to Lee Beebe for 17 yds to the UTSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:09
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 25 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK)
-13.1
TD · Q3 5:54
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)
+8.9
FG · Q4 12:09
Chase Allen 53 yd FG GOOD
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com