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USF

South Florida 35 at UAB 56

UAB
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · Protective Stadium
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Win probability · UAB
modelUAB aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playUAB scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:27 · Jacob Zeno pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 6 yds to the USF 21 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 30Home team on offense+1.8Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.6Pregame prior−7.9Blowout margin−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:27: Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 21 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK) — UAB win probability +6.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:23: Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK) — UAB win probability +10.0 pts (now 63%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:27: Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK) — UAB win probability +13.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:13: Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 23 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK) — UAB win probability +7.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:44: Michel Dukes run for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +5.8 pts (now 7%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UAB made the numbers' call on 7 of 8USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 7:27UAB 4th & 4 at USF 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    48.3%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    47.2%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:34USF 4th & 17 at USF 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−2.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:04USF 4th & 14 at USF 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−2.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:04UAB 4th & 2 at USF 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    61.2%−3.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:28UAB 4th & 19 at USF 36, up 14
    Close callPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−1.8
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    67.3%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:49USF 4th & 6 at USF 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:49UAB 4th & 6 at USF 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.6%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:38UAB 4th & 11 at UAB 24, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:37USF 4th & 8 at UAB 44, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.2%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    10.1%−1.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    11.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:07USF 4th & 15 at UAB 40, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    1.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:58UAB 4th & 1 at UAB 43, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.3%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:29USF 4th & 2 at UAB 26, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:10USF 4th & 11 at UAB 21, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:37UAB 4th & 15 at USF 15, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:08UAB 4th & 15 at USF 43, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:03USF 4th & 16 at USF 14, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UAB made the numbers' call on 8 of 8USF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:35USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:36UAB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:32UAB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 5:27UAB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 0:00USF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 12:23UAB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:27UAB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:13UAB Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:44USF Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 3:29UAB Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 13:15UAB Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 11:18USF Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 5:36USF Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:1459% → 59%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
41.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 7 yds to the USF 37Similar
Q1 14:49
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+2
41.1%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 39Similar
Q1 14:49
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+1
41.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the USF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
40.9%
Byrum Brown run for 60 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 2TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5941% → 42%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.0%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the UAB 30Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
41.0%
PENALTY UAB False Start 5 yards from UAB30 to UAB25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
41.8%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Brandon Buckhaulter for 75 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3INT
6 plays · 52 yds · 1:1058% → 58%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
41.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Byrum Brown for 15 yds to the USF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+37
41.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 37 yds to the UAB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
41.4%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Naiem SimmonsSimilar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
41.5%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Sean AtkinsSimilar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
41.8%
Byrum Brown pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 4TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 3:5442% → 46%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
42.2%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the UAB 8Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 12
OWN 8
-4
42.1%
PENALTY UAB False Start (Wilson,Brady) 4 yards from UAB08 to UAB04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 16
OWN 4
+21
42.1%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 21 yds to the UAB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
42.2%
Jacob Zeno run for 6 yds to the UAB 31Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
42.3%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the UAB 33Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
42.2%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the UAB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
42.3%
Jacob Zeno pass incomplete to Amare ThomasSimilar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
42.2%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Amare Thomas for 4 yds to the UAB 39Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+61
46.3%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 61 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
46.2%
Byrum Brown run for 8 yds to the USF 33 Byrum Brown fumbled, recovered by UAB Keondre SwoopesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 6TD
5 plays · 33 yds · 2:0047% → 53%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
47.1%
Jacob Zeno pass incomplete to Brandon BuckhaulterSimilar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
47.1%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 4 yds to the USF 29Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+2
46.9%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the USF 27Similar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+6
46.5%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 6 yds to the USF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
53.4%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 21 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:5249% → 47%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-6
51.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Powell,K'wan rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USF13 (Moore,Michael; Smalls,Eamon) PENALTY USF Face Mask (Kilfoyl,Andrew) 6 yards from USF12 to USF06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 16
OWN 6
+1
51.9%
K'Wan Powell run for 1 yd to the USF 5Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 17
OWN 5
0
52.0%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Naiem SimmonsSimilar
Q1 5:26
3RD & 17
OWN 5
0
52.1%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Michael Brown-StephensSimilar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 17
OWN 5
+48
53.2%
Andrew Stokes punt for 48 yds Mac McWilliams return for 2 yds to the USF 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 8INT
4 plays · 33 yds · 1:3755% → 56%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+34
54.5%
Lee Beebe run for 44 yds to the UAB 5 UAB Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UAB 47Similar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 14
OWN 47
+4
54.2%
Lee Witherspoon run for 4 yds to the USF 49Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+33
54.4%
Amare Thomas run for 33 yds to the USF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
56.3%
Jacob Zeno pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:5746% → 51%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
53.8%
Michel Dukes run for 2 yds to the USF 42Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+2
53.8%
Michel Dukes run for 2 yds to the USF 44Similar
Q1 2:57
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+8
53.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 8 yds to the UAB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
53.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Byrum pass incomplete short right to Greenwald,Gunnar QB hurried by Fairbanks II,Michael PENALTY UAB Holding declined UAB Personal Foul (Swoopes,Keondre) 15 yards from UAB48 to UAB33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
52.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 5 yds to the UAB 28Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+12
52.5%
Michel Dukes run for 12 yds to the UAB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
52.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Gunnar Greenwald for no gain to the UAB 16Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+2
52.5%
Michel Dukes run for 2 yds to the UAB 14Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+14
49.1%
Byrum Brown run for 14 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 10TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:3752% → 63%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
51.5%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to T.J. Jones for 14 yds to the UAB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
52.5%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 13 yds to the USF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+26
52.7%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Terrell McDonald for 26 yds to the USF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
52.8%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the USF 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+5
52.8%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the USF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
62.8%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK)Similar
Q2 12:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
62.8%
PENALTY UAB False Start 5 yards from USF03 to USF08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1941% → 39%
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
59.2%
Byrum Brown sacked by Desmond Little for a loss of 6 yards to the USF 19Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
59.5%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Khafre BrownSimilar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+2
59.8%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 21Similar
Q2 11:04
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+3
61.3%
Andrew Stokes punt for 43 yds , Mac McWilliams returns for 3 yds to the UAB 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 5:3664% → 67%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
63.9%
Lee Beebe run for 5 yds to the UAB 44Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+5
64.1%
Lee Beebe run for 5 yds to the UAB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
64.2%
T.J. Jones run for 3 yds to the UAB 46Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+5
63.6%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Samario Rudolph for 5 yds to the USF 49Similar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+6
63.4%
Jacob Zeno run for 6 yds to the USF 43Similar
Q2 11:04
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+5
62.8%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the USF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
64.3%
Lee Beebe run for 11 yds to the USF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
64.3%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 5 yds to the USF 32Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+4
63.8%
Lee Beebe run for 4 yds to the USF 28Similar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 11
OPP 28
0
63.7%
UAB Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jacob Zeno) to the USF 36Similar
Q2 5:28
4TH & 19
OPP 36
0
66.6%
Patrick Foley punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3933% → 30%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
67.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the USF 4Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+1
67.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the USF 5Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+1
67.9%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the USF 6Similar
Q2 3:49
4TH & 6
OWN 6
0
69.8%
Andrew Stokes punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 14TD
11 plays · 52 yds · 3:2271% → 87%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
70.7%
Lee Beebe run for 1 yd to the UAB 47Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 11
OWN 47
0
70.1%
Jacob Zeno pass incomplete to Tejhaun PalmerSimilar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+5
69.2%
Jacob Zeno run for 5 yds to the USF 48Similar
Q2 3:49
4TH & 6
OPP 48
+9
68.9%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Lee Witherspoon for 9 yds to the USF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
70.8%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Bryce Damous for 13 yds to the USF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+17
70.8%
Lee Witherspoon run for 17 yds to the USF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
70.8%
Lee Witherspoon run for 1 yd to the USF 8Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
73.2%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Bryce Damous for 5 yds to the USF 3Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
86.9%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15END OF HALF
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:2715% → 14%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michel Dukes for 5 yds to the USF 30Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
84.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Byrum pass complete deep right to Brown,Khafre for 25 yards to the UAB45 (Rowell,Ike) PENALTY USF Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Lofton,Mike) 5 yards from USF30 to USF25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
86.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Byrum sacked for loss of 3 yards to the USF22 (Bratton,Jackson) PENALTY UAB Face Mask (McWilliams,Fish) 15 yards from USF25 to USF40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
86.2%
Bryce Archie pass incomplete to Michael Brown-StephensSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
86.3%
South Florida Penalty, Offensive Holding (Matthew Hill) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2288% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
88.3%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the UAB 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
88.2%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 2 yds to the UAB 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
87.8%
Jacob Zeno pass incomplete to Dallas PayneSimilar
Q3 13:38
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
88.3%
Patrick Foley punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UAB 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0113% → 11%
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
86.8%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Sean AtkinsSimilar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
87.2%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the UAB 44Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
87.4%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Naiem SimmonsSimilar
Q3 12:37
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
88.6%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Khafre BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 18TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 1:2491% → 98%
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
90.8%
Lee Beebe run for 2 yds to the UAB 46Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+11
90.7%
Lee Beebe run for 11 yds to the USF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
90.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Beebe,Lee rush middle for 2 yards loss to the USF45 (Cheney,Rashad) PENALTY USF Face Mask (Cheney,Rashad) 15 yards from USF43 to USF28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
90.9%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the USF 23Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+23
98.0%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 23 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:022% → 2%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
97.9%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Naiem SimmonsSimilar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+27
97.9%
K'Wan Powell run for 27 yds to the UAB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
97.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Byrum pass complete short right to Atkins,Sean for 2 yards to the UAB33 (McWilliams,Mac) PENALTY USF Holding (Brown,Khafre) 10 yards from UAB35 to UAB45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 20
OPP 45
0
97.9%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Jaden AlexisSimilar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 20
OPP 45
+5
97.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to K'Wan Powell for 5 yds to the UAB 40Similar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 15
OPP 40
0
98.0%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Khafre BrownSimilar
Q3 9:07
4TH & 15
OPP 40
+6
98.5%
Byrum Brown run for 6 yds to the UAB 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0999% → 99%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
98.5%
Lee Beebe run for 4 yds to the UAB 38Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
98.6%
Jacob Zeno pass incomplete to Terrell McDonaldSimilar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+5
98.6%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Amare Thomas for 5 yds to the UAB 43Similar
Q3 7:58
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+2
98.5%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the UAB 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:141% → 7%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
98.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jayson Littlejohn for 4 yds to the UAB 37Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
98.6%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Michael Brown-StephensSimilar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+23
98.7%
Byrum Brown run for 23 yds to the UAB 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
98.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Dukes,Michel rush middle for 0 yards to the UAB14 (Moore,Michael) PENALTY UAB Illegal Substitution 5 yards from UAB14 to UAB09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 5
OPP 9
+3
98.4%
Michel Dukes run for 3 yds to the UAB 6Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 2
OPP 6
0
98.4%
Michel Dukes run for no gain to the UAB 6Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+5
98.5%
Michel Dukes run for 5 yds to the UAB 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.7%
Michel Dukes run for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 22TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:1594% → 100%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
94.1%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 22 yds to the UAB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
94.5%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Brandon Buckhaulter for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 7
50
+1
94.4%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Lee Beebe for 1 yd to the USF 49Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+49
99.5%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Amare Thomas for 49 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23DOWNS
13 plays · 50 yds · 3:191% → 1%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jaden Alexis for 5 yds to the USF 30Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+25
99.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 25 yds to the UAB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
99.4%
Byrum Brown run for 11 yds to the UAB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.4%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Naiem SimmonsSimilar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+8
99.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 8 yds to the UAB 26Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 2
OPP 26
0
99.3%
Michel Dukes run for no gain to the UAB 26Similar
Q3 3:29
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+6
99.2%
Sean Atkins run for 6 yds to the UAB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
99.3%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the UAB 16Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 6
OPP 16
-5
99.3%
Byrum Brown sacked by Nikia Eason Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the UAB 21Similar
Q3 0:21
3RD & 11
OPP 21
0
99.6%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Sean AtkinsSimilar
Q3 0:10
4TH & 11
OPP 21
-4
99.5%
Byrum Brown sacked by Nikia Eason Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the UAB 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 24TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Lee Beebe run for no gain to the UAB 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Zeno,Jacob pass incomplete short right PENALTY USF Face Mask (Cheney,Rashad) 15 yards from UAB25 to UAB40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.5%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the UAB 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
99.5%
UAB Penalty, Face Mask (10 yards) (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+10
99.5%
Shotgun Zeno,Jacob pass incomplete short left broken up by Williams II,Michael PENALTY USF Holding (Evans,Daquan) 10 yards from UAB35 to UAB45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.6%
Lee Witherspoon run for 3 yds to the UAB 42Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+58
99.7%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 58 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:480% → 0%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
99.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 9 yds to the UAB 31Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+3
99.7%
Michel Dukes run for 3 yds to the UAB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
99.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jaden Alexis for 6 yds to the UAB 22Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+9
99.7%
Byrum Brown run for 9 yds to the UAB 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
99.7%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Naiem SimmonsSimilar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 13 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 26MISSED FG
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:36100% → 100%
Q4 11:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
99.8%
PENALTY UAB False Start (Moore,Logan) 5 yards from USF09 to USF14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+2
99.8%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Lee Beebe for 2 yds to the USF 12Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+3
99.8%
Lee Beebe run for 3 yds to the USF 15Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
99.7%
Landry Lyddy pass incomplete to Fred Farrier IISimilar
Q4 9:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
99.8%
Matt Quinn 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:010% → 1%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 6 yds to the USF 26Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
99.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the USF 29Similar
Q4 9:37
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+7
99.8%
Byrum Brown run for 7 yds to the USF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
99.8%
Byrum Brown run for 6 yds to the USF 42Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-10
99.8%
Shotgun Brown,Byrum sacked for loss of 10 yards to the USF32 (Waller,Emanuel), fumble by Brown,Byrum recovered by USF Best,Cole at USF32, End Of Play PENALTY USF Holding (Lofton,Mike) 10 yards from USF42 to USF32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+12
99.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 12 yds to the USF 44Similar
Q4 9:37
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+2
99.8%
K'Wan Powell run for 2 yds to the USF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+40
99.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jaden Alexis for 40 yds to the UAB 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
99.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to K'Wan Powell for 12 yds to the UAB 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.7%
K'Wan Powell run for 1 yd to the UAB 1Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.7%
K'Wan Powell run for 1 yd to the UAB 2Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 2 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 28PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 1:2899% → 100%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.4%
Demetrius Battle run for 4 yds to the USF 45Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+7
99.4%
Demetrius Battle run for 7 yds to the USF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.4%
Demetrius Battle run for no gain to the USF 38Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
99.4%
Landry Lyddy pass incomplete to Brandon BuckhaulterSimilar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 10
OPP 38
-5
99.4%
PENALTY UAB Delay Of Game (Lyddy,Landry) 5 yards from USF38 to USF43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 15
OPP 43
0
99.6%
Landry Lyddy pass incomplete to T.J. JonesSimilar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 15
OPP 43
0
99.6%
Patrick Foley punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USF 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 29INT
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:121% → 1%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.3%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Michael Brown-StephensSimilar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-10
99.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Byrum pass incomplete short middle to Atkins,Sean PENALTY USF Holding (Kilfoyl,Andrew) 10 yards from USF20 to USF10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+4
99.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 4 yds to the USF 14Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 16
OWN 14
0
99.3%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:03
4TH & 16
OWN 14
+20
99.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 20 yds to the USF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
99.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 8 yds to the USF 42Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+4
99.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michel Dukes for 4 yds to the USF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.4%
Byrum Brown pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 30END OF GAME
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:56100% → 100%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
99.8%
Harrison Barker run for 10 yds to the UAB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.7%
Demetrius Battle run for 5 yds to the UAB 30Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
99.8%
Harrison Barker run for 7 yds to the UAB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.7%
Taven Curry run for 5 yds to the UAB 42Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+7
99.8%
Harrison Barker run for 7 yds to the UAB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:27
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK)
+13.9
TD · Q2 12:23
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK)
+10
TD · Q3 11:13
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 23 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK)
+7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com