2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
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Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreUAB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:26 · Michael Lantz 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:44: Isaiah Jacobs run for 5 yds for a TD (H. Barker Run For Two-point Conversion) — UAB win probability +18.7 pts (now 48%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:39: OJ Arnold run for 39 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — GASO win probability +14.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:49: Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — GASO win probability +10.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:19: Jacob Zeno pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 7 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK) — UAB win probability +14.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:31: Jalen White run for 6 yds for a TD (Davis Brin pass to Jjay Mcafee for Two-Point Conversion) — GASO win probability +7.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UAB made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 11:02UAB 4th & 1 at UAB 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt30.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:28UAB 4th & 4 at GASO 18, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 30.2% before the snapGo for it30.2%47% to convertField goalTheir call30.2%−<0.179% to makePunt29.3%−0.9average punt
- Q2 4:47GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 29, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snapGo for it71.7%−0.831% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.5%average punt
- Q2 0:08UAB 4th & 3 at UAB 32, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snapGo for it26.9%−0.852% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.8%average punt
- Q4 9:23UAB 4th & 1 at UAB 34, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.3%−1.3average punt
- Q4 7:26GASO 4th & 8 at UAB 19, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snapGo for it95.2%−0.432% to convertField goalTheir call95.6%77% to makePunt92.4%−3.2average punt
- Q4 1:36GASO 4th & 17 at UAB 20, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snapGo for it95.5%−0.613% to convertField goalTheir call96.1%75% to makePunt94.7%−1.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UAB made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 12:56GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.2%97% to makeGo for two69.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:56GASO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.7%97% to makeGo for two75.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:15UAB Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call28.7%97% to makeGo for two28.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:10GASO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.7%97% to makeGo for two78.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:50UAB Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.5%97% to makeGo for two26.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:44UAB Touchdown, down 1 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick34.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call33.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:39GASO Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.2%97% to makeGo for two71.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:49GASO Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.1%97% to makeGo for two84.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:19UAB Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call22.2%97% to makeGo for two22.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:31GASO Touchdown, up 12 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick92.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call92.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:45UAB Touchdown, down 11 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick7.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call7.3%−0.545% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUABDrive 1FUMBLE1 play · -6 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
67.4%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the UAB 19 fumbled, recovered by GASO Justin RhodesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2TD4 plays · 19 yds · 2:0067% → 68%
UABDrive 3DOWNS5 plays · 20 yds · 1:5332% → 32%
GASODrive 4INT2 plays · 5 yds · 0:1869% → 69%
UABDrive 5MISSED FG8 plays · 29 yds · 2:0032% → 32%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
67.8%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to T.J. Jones for 23 yds to the GASO 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
67.7%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the GASO 25Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+5
67.9%
(09:30) JACOBS, Isaiah rush up the middle for a loss of 1 yard to the GS26 (GILMORE, Davon), clock 09:26. PENALTY Before the snap, GS Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the GS25 to the GS20. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6TD15 plays · 80 yds · 5:2969% → 77%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
68.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 7 yds to the GASO 27Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+5
69.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 5 yds to the GASO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+6
69.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 6 yds to the GASO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
69.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Anthony Queeley for 15 yds to the UAB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+20
70.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 20 yds to the UAB 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 7TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3925% → 31%
Q1 1:54
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
74.4%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 13 yds to the UAB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
73.6%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 7 yds to the GASO 32Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+13
73.0%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 13 yds to the GASO 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8TD11 plays · 67 yds · 3:5573% → 82%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
73.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 3 yds to the GASO 49Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 6
50
+10
73.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Anthony Queeley for 10 yds to the UAB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 1
OPP 31
-15
74.5%
(11:09) BRIN, Davis pass deep to the right complete for 31 yards to BURGESS JR., Derwin caught at the UAB4 and advanced to the UAB0, TOUCHDOWN GS, score nullified by penalty, clock 11:03 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY GS Pass Interference on BURGESS JR., Derwin enforced 15 yards to the UAB46 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 16
OPP 46
+12
73.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 12 yds to the UAB 34Similar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+8
74.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 8 yds to the UAB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
82.3%
OJ Arnold pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 26 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 9TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:1922% → 29%
Q2 9:34
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
78.0%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Isaiah Jacobs for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 23Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+29
78.5%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 29 yds to the GASO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+11
77.5%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Bryce Damous for 11 yds to the GASO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
76.3%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Bryce Damous for 6 yds to the GASO 31Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 4
OPP 31
-10
76.3%
(07:37) ZENO, Jacob pass to the right incomplete intended for BROWN JR., Jermaine thrown to the GS20, clock 07:28. PENALTY UAB Holding on YATES, Quez enforced 10 yards from the GS31 to the GS41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 14
OPP 41
+16
78.4%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 16 yds to the GASO 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+19
75.9%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 19 yds to the GASO 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
70.8%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Bryce Damous for 5 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5677% → 76%
UABDrive 11TD7 plays · 49 yds · 2:5127% → 48%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
72.6%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Isaiah Jacobs for 11 yds to the GASO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+7
72.7%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 7 yds to the GASO 29Similar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
71.1%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Bryce Damous for 13 yds to the GASO 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
52.4%
Isaiah Jacobs run for 5 yds for a TD (H. Barker Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12TD4 plays · 77 yds · 0:5859% → 75%
UABDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:3027% → 24%
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
73.8%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 7 yds to the UAB 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14TD13 plays · 85 yds · 5:0373% → 87%
Q3 14:28
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+5
72.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 5 yds to the GASO 19Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+7
72.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 7 yds to the GASO 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
73.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Anthony Queeley for 4 yds to the GASO 30Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 6
OWN 30
-5
73.5%
Georgia Southern Penalty, False Start (Pichon Wimbley) to the GASO 25Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+21
74.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to OJ Arnold for 21 yds to the UAB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+25
76.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 25 yds to the UAB 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 15TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2915% → 28%
Q3 9:17
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
85.0%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 12 yds to the UAB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
84.1%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 11 yds to the GASO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+15
84.1%
Georgia Southern Penalty, Personal Foul (Khadry Jackson) to the GASO 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
71.8%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 7 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16FUMBLE8 plays · 58 yds · 3:3077% → 83%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
76.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 14 yds to the GASO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 4
OPP 45
-1
79.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jalen White for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 46Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+15
78.5%
UAB Penalty, Personal Foul (Colby Dempsey) to the UAB 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+12
80.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 12 yds to the UAB 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
83.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 1 yd fumbled, recovered by UAB Jackson BrattonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 17INT8 plays · 48 yds · 3:2922% → 27%
Q3 0:54
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+9
78.1%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Bryce Damous for 9 yds to the UAB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+20
77.1%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 20 yds to the UAB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
75.6%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Samario Rudolph for 11 yds to the UAB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
73.6%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Samario Rudolph for 6 yds to the GASO 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18TD5 plays · 38 yds · 2:2285% → 96%
UABDrive 19DOWNS5 plays · -4 yds · 1:076% → 6%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.5%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 7 yds to the UAB 32Similar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
94.3%
Jacob Zeno run for 2 yds to the UAB 34 TEAM fumbled, recovered by UABSimilar
Q4 9:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-10
94.5%
Jacob Zeno run for a loss of 10 yards to the UAB 21 Jacob Zeno fumbled, recovered by UAB Jacob ZenoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20FG4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3896% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 21TD5 plays · 83 yds · 1:373% → 9%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
96.6%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Samario Rudolph for 14 yds to the UAB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+67
96.4%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 67 yds to the GASO 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
95.9%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Samario Rudolph for 2 yds to the GASO 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22FG11 plays · 23 yds · 4:0995% → 99%
UABDrive 23FUMBLE5 plays · 31 yds · 0:322% → 2%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
98.5%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Isaiah Jacobs for 8 yds to the UAB 43Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+23
98.5%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 23 yds to the GASO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
98.1%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Bryce Damous for 2 yds to the GASO 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:44
Isaiah Jacobs run for 5 yds for a TD (H. Barker Run For Two-point Conversion)
-18.7
TD · Q3 5:19
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 7 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK)
-14.3
TD · Q2 0:39
OJ Arnold run for 39 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
+14.2