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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreUTSA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:26 · Frank Harris pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for no gain to the UTSA 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:22: Rocko Griffin run for 23 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK) — UTSA win probability +1.7 pts (now 45%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 11:53: Valentino Ambrosio 47 yd FG GOOD — TULN win probability +1.3 pts (now 57%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:27: Makhi Hughes run for 2 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — TULN win probability +8.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Valentino Ambrosio 23 yd FG GOOD — TULN win probability +5.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:18: Michael Pratt pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — TULN win probability +1.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UTSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
- Q1 5:58TULN 4th & 3 at TULN 47, tiedClose callPunted · 59.9% before the snapGo for it60.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.9%−0.2average punt
- Q1 3:11UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 39.9% before the snapGo for it39.7%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.0%average punt
- Q1 2:06TULN 4th & 6 at TULN 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snapGo for it58.7%−0.338% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.0%average punt
- Q2 14:08UTSA 4th & 2 at TULN 23, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 41.8% before the snapGo for it41.8%57% to convertField goalTheir call41.4%−0.470% to makePunt38.9%−2.9average punt
- Q2 11:53TULN 4th & 8 at UTSA 29, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.8% before the snapGo for it57.4%−0.334% to convertField goalTheir call57.7%58% to makePunt54.6%−3.1average punt
- Q2 8:57UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 43, tiedClose callPunted · 41.9% before the snapGo for it42.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.9%−0.2average punt
- Q2 5:40TULN 4th & 4 at UTSA 8, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 60.7% before the snapGo for it60.6%42% to convertField goalTheir call60.0%−0.790% to makePunt54.9%−5.7average punt
- Q2 1:50UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 43, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.2%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt26.1%−0.2average punt
- Q3 13:18TULN 4th & 2 at TULN 33, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snapGo for it81.6%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.6%average punt
- Q3 10:19UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 34, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt17.3%−0.9average punt
- Q3 8:18UTSA 4th & 9 at UTSA 36, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snapGo for it15.2%−1.031% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.1%average punt
- Q3 6:24TULN 4th & 9 at TULN 24, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snapGo for it84.0%−2.030% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.0%average punt
- Q4 14:09TULN 4th & 8 at UTSA 48, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.5% before the snapGo for it91.6%−0.534% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.2%average punt
- Q4 11:01UTSA 4th & 4 at TULN 10, down 13Close callWent for it · 10.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.7%−0.744% to convertField goal10.4%88% to makePunt4.0%−6.4average punt
- Q4 8:34TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 39, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snapGo for it93.9%−0.637% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.5%average punt
- Q4 7:26UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 32, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.2%−1.3average punt
- Q4 4:19UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 31, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.5%−0.2average punt
- Q4 1:33UTSA 4th & 5 at TULN 9, down 19Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.5%−0.236% to convertField goal1.7%89% to makePunt0.7%−1.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 13:47TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.4%97% to makeGo for two60.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:22UTSA Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.1%97% to makeGo for two40.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:27TULN Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.1%97% to makeGo for two73.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:18TULN Touchdown, up 19 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick99.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call98.5%−0.545% to convert
- Q4 1:33UTSA Touchdown, down 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick3.0%−0.197% to makeGo for twoTheir call3.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTSADrive 1INT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:2345% → 45%
Q1 14:32
2ND & 11
OWN 13
-5
55.3%
Frank Harris pass intercepted Bailey Despanie return for 5 yds to the UTSA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2TD3 plays · 10 yds · 0:4055% → 56%
Q1 13:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
55.9%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 7 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3INT8 plays · 26 yds · 3:0844% → 43%
Q1 12:20
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+8
56.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 8 yds to the UTSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+6
56.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Houston Thomas for 6 yds to the UTSA 31Similar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
56.9%
Frank Harris pass intercepted Devean Deal return for no gain to the UTSA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4FUMBLE1 play · -3 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
58.0%
Michael Pratt sacked by Jamal Ligon for a loss of 3 yards to the TULN 49 Michael Pratt fumbled, forced by Jamal Ligon, recovered by UTSA Donyai Taylor , return for 19 yds to the TULN 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5TD3 plays · 30 yds · 0:5143% → 45%
Q1 9:43
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+7
56.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 7 yds to the TULN 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 3:1356% → 56%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 2:4144% → 44%
TULNDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5956% → 55%
Q1 2:06
4TH & 6
OWN 16
0
55.2%
Will Karoll punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9FG8 plays · 34 yds · 2:5146% → 47%
TULNDrive 10FG9 plays · 46 yds · 2:1554% → 57%
UTSADrive 11PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 2:5045% → 45%
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
55.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Houston Thomas for 4 yds to the UTSA 29Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
55.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Houston Thomas for 7 yds to the UTSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+2
54.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 2 yds to the UTSA 43Similar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
55.0%
Lucas Dean punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Dontae Fleming at the TULN 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 12FG6 plays · 68 yds · 3:1257% → 61%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13FUMBLE4 plays · 23 yds · 0:3541% → 41%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
58.9%
Kevorian Barnes run for 12 yds to the UTSA 48 Kevorian Barnes fumbled, forced by Lance Robinson, recovered by TULN Eric Hicks Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14TD7 plays · 48 yds · 1:2563% → 73%
UTSADrive 15INT6 plays · 18 yds · 1:2829% → 28%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
71.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Robert Henry for 13 yds to the UTSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
70.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Devin McCuin for 1 yd to the UTSA 39Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-10
71.0%
Frank Harris sacked by Keith Cooper Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the UTSA 29 UTSA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Frank Harris) to the UTSA 29Similar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 19
OWN 29
+14
72.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 14 yds to the UTSA 43Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 5
OWN 43
-5
72.5%
Oscar Cardenas pass intercepted Tahir Annoor return for 5 yds to the UTSA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16FG13 plays · 38 yds · 1:4475% → 77%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
74.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the UTSA 45Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
74.8%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell II, broken up by Nicktroy FortuneSimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 6
OPP 39
+9
73.9%
Horton, Kai pass incomplete to Brazzell II, Chris, PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Griffin, Dywan) 9 yards to the UTSA30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULANE.Similar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
76.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shedro Louis for 1 yd to the UTSA 29Similar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
74.3%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Yulkeith Brown, broken up by Dywan GriffinSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+5
72.6%
Pratt, Michael rush for 3 yards to the UTSA7, PENALTY UTSA offside (Taylor, Donyai) 5 yards to the UTSA5, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3779% → 80%
UTSADrive 18PUNT11 plays · 21 yds · 4:5222% → 17%
Q3 12:34
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-1
79.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 15Similar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+10
80.0%
Harris, Frank pass pass intercepted by Douglas, DJ at the UTSA39, Douglas, DJ return 0 yards to the UTSA39, PENALTY TULANE holding (Monroe, Jarius) 10 yards to the UTSA25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTSA.Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
79.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Rocko Griffin for 3 yds to the UTSA 29Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
81.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Devin McCuin for 5 yds to the UTSA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 1:4784% → 84%
UTSADrive 20FUMBLE6 plays · 63 yds · 2:5217% → 18%
Q3 5:28
2ND & 7
OPP 32
-8
80.5%
Frank Harris sacked by Patrick Jenkins for a loss of 8 yards to the TULN 40Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 15
OPP 40
+16
84.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 16 yds to the TULN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+2
82.4%
Robert Henry run for 16 yds to the TULN 10 Robert Henry fumbled, forced by Kam Pedescleaux, recovered by TULN Jared Small, return for 2 yds to the TULN 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 21PUNT10 plays · 42 yds · 4:0988% → 92%
UTSADrive 22DOWNS10 plays · 73 yds · 3:0012% → 8%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
88.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Rocko Griffin for 2 yds to the UTSA 19Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+24
88.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 24 yds to the UTSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
87.6%
Harris, Frank pass incomplete to Ogle-Kellogg, Tykee, PENALTY TULANE pass interference (Monroe, Jarius) 15 yards to the TULANE42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTSA.Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+23
87.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Devin McCuin for 23 yds to the TULN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
88.0%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg, broken up by Jarius MonroeSimilar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 4
OPP 10
0
92.3%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to David Amador, broken up by Kam PedescleauxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 29 yds · 2:2095% → 96%
UTSADrive 24DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 1:036% → 6%
TULNDrive 25TD5 plays · 32 yds · 2:0197% → 99%
UTSADrive 26TD16 plays · 75 yds · 3:402% → 3%
Q4 5:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Rocko Griffin for 6 yds to the UTSA 31Similar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+12
98.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 12 yds to the UTSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
97.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to David Amador for 5 yds to the UTSA 48Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+4
98.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for 4 yds to the TULN 48Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
97.8%
Harris, Frank pass incomplete to Ogle-Kellogg, Tykee, PENALTY TULANE offside (Jenkins, Patrick) 5 yards to the TULANE20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
97.7%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua Cephus, broken up by Jarius MonroeSimilar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
97.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 5 yds to the TULN 9Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
97.8%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to David Amador, broken up by DJ DouglasSimilar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+9
96.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 27END OF GAME4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2199% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:27
Makhi Hughes run for 2 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)
+8.3
FG · Q2 0:00
Valentino Ambrosio 23 yd FG GOOD
+5.6
TD · Q4 5:18
Michael Pratt pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+1.9