2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadTULN aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreTULN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:02 · Luke Larsen punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jha'Quan Jackson at the TULN 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:47: Gerald Green run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +5.5 pts (now 23%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Valentino Ambrosio 21 yd FG GOOD — TULN win probability +4.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 9:50: Timeout Tulane, clock 09:50 — ECU win probability +6.9 pts (now 31%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 7:17: Makhi Hughes run for 1 yd to the TULN 46 — TULN win probability +10.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 3:10: Timeout Tulane, clock 03:10 — TULN win probability +6.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TULN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 8:37ECU 4th & 8 at TULN 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.2% before the snapGo for it18.1%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call18.2%88% to makePunt17.6%−0.6average punt
- Q1 5:28TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 40, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snapGo for it79.1%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.2%average punt
- Q1 0:14TULN 4th & 4 at ECU 40, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call72.8%48% to convertField goal71.9%−0.934% to makePunt72.1%−0.7average punt
- Q2 12:45ECU 4th & 7 at TULN 44, up 10Close callPunted · 30.4% before the snapGo for it30.6%37% to convertField goal29.5%−1.127% to makePuntTheir call30.5%−0.1average punt
- Q2 12:45TULN 4th & 3 at ECU 29, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call69.8%52% to convertField goal69.2%−0.658% to makePunt66.1%−3.6average punt
- Q2 3:05ECU 4th & 16 at ECU 19, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snapGo for it29.8%−2.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.1%average punt
- Q2 0:00TULN 4th & 3 at ECU 3, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 65.7% before the snapGo for it67.4%44% to convertField goalTheir call65.2%−2.393% to makePunt57.5%−9.9average punt
- Q3 9:46TULN 4th & 6 at ECU 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snapGo for it65.4%−0.537% to convertField goalTheir call66.0%85% to makePunt56.7%−9.3average punt
- Q3 6:02ECU 4th & 7 at ECU 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 39.9% before the snapGo for it39.9%−1.037% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.9%average punt
- Q4 14:14TULN 4th & 8 at ECU 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.5% before the snapGo for it56.8%−1.726% to convertField goalTheir call58.4%90% to makePunt42.7%−15.8average punt
- Q4 12:14ECU 4th & 9 at ECU 26, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snapGo for it31.0%−2.430% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.4%average punt
- Q4 9:45TULN 4th & 8 at TULN 14, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snapGo for it63.5%−3.732% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.2%average punt
- Q4 7:17ECU 4th & 6 at TULN 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call34.5%40% to convertField goal31.7%−2.825% to makePunt32.3%−2.2average punt
- Q4 1:31TULN 4th & 1 at ECU 5, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.2%67% to convertField goal79.0%−9.292% to makePunt57.3%−30.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TULN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 1:47ECU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.0%97% to makeGo for two27.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:08TULN Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.6%97% to makeGo for two66.5%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartECUDrive 1FG13 plays · 71 yds · 6:1712% → 15%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
11.9%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 6 yds to the ECU 25Similar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
11.9%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 2 yds to the ECU 32Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+9
11.9%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 9 yds to the ECU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
11.9%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 2 yds to the ECU 45Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+32
11.9%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 32 yds to the TULN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 3:0585% → 83%
Q1 8:33
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+10
15.4%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shaadie Clayton-Johnson for 10 yds to the TULN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-1
15.0%
Michael Pratt sacked by D'Anta Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the TULN 41Similar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
17.4%
Will Karoll punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jsi Hatfield at the ECU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD7 plays · 78 yds · 3:4117% → 23%
Q1 5:28
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+10
16.8%
QB Keeper FLINN, Alex rush to the right for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU28 (MACHADO, Jesus). PENALTY TLN Holding on ROBINSON, Lance enforced 10 yards from the ECU29 to the ECU39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+32
17.2%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 32 yds to the TULN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+22
17.7%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 22 yds to the TULN 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4DOWNS4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2178% → 77%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1525% → 27%
Q2 12:45
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
26.5%
Luke Larsen punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jha'Quan Jackson at the TULN 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6TD15 plays · 92 yds · 8:3773% → 72%
Q2 12:45
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+23
27.0%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Alex Bauman for 23 yds to the TULN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
25.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Alex Bauman for 6 yds to the ECU 30Similar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+10
26.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 10 yds to the ECU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
24.9%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 1 yd to the ECU 18Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
24.9%
Tulane Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Shedro Louis) to the ECU 12Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+3
25.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 3 yds to the ECU 9Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
27.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 9 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:0330% → 29%
Q2 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-6
29.9%
Alex Flinn sacked by Jared Small for a loss of 6 yards to the ECU 19Similar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
29.2%
Luke Larsen punt for 40 yds , JACKSON, Jha'Quan returned 9 yards to the ECU50 (DANKAH, Samuel), out of bounds, clock 03:05. PENALTY TLN Personal Foul on RATTAN, Rishi enforced 15 yards after the change of possession from the end of the play at the ECU50 to the TLN35.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8FG13 plays · 62 yds · 3:0570% → 75%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
30.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Makhi Hughes for 1 yd to the TULN 36Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+41
30.1%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 41 yds to the ECU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
27.4%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 4 yds to the ECU 19Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+11
28.0%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 11 yds to the ECU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
28.9%
QB Keeper PRATT, Michael rush to the right for no gain to the ECU6 (LEWIS, Jeremy). PENALTY ECU Personal Foul on WARE, Suirad enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the ECU6 to the ECU3 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9MISSED FG12 plays · 57 yds · 5:0673% → 69%
ECUDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 3:4436% → 38%
TULNDrive 11FG12 plays · 70 yds · 6:4865% → 69%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+50
34.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 50 yds to the ECU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+7
29.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 7 yds to the ECU 19Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 1
OPP 19
-15
30.6%
Tulane Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Cameron Wire) to the ECU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
29.6%
PRATT, Michael pass to the right incomplete intended for CARTER, Chris thrown to the ECU20. PENALTY ECU Pass Interference enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the ECU21 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+13
31.4%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Alex Bauman for 13 yds to the ECU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
34.2%
Michael Pratt sacked by D'Anta Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 2:0033% → 30%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.9%
QB Keeper FLINN, Alex rush to the right for a gain of 17 yards to the ECU25, out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. PENALTY ECU Holding on GREEN, Gerald TLN Holding on COOPER JR., Keith , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
32.6%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Gerald Green for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 24Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+2
30.8%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Gerald Green for 2 yds to the ECU 26Similar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
29.8%
Luke Larsen punt for 52 yds , Lawrence Keys III returns for no gain to the TULN 26 Tulane Penalty, Offensive Holding (Rayshawn Pleasant) to the TULN 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 2:2969% → 69%
Q4 12:14
2ND & 15
OWN 7
-14
31.2%
PRATT, Michael pass up the middle complete for 14 yards to KEYS III, Lawrence caught at the TLN18 and advanced to the TLN21 (REVEL, Shavon). PENALTY TLN Holding on GREEN, Rashad enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the TLN7 to the TLN4 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 7
OWN 15
-1
32.2%
Michael Pratt run for a loss of 1 yard to the TULN 14 Michael Pratt fumbled, recovered by TULN Michael Pratt [NHSG] QB Keeper PRATT, Michael rush up the middle for a loss of 1 yard, PRATT, Michael fumbled at TLN15 , recovered by TLN PRATT, Michael at the TLN14, returned 0 yards to the TLN14 (LAMPLEY, J.D.).Similar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 8
OWN 14
0
31.5%
Will Karoll punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jsi Hatfield at the ECU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14DOWNS6 plays · 15 yds · 2:2836% → 35%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 15END OF GAME18 plays · 49 yds · 7:1776% → 95%
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 7:17
Makhi Hughes run for 1 yd to the TULN 46
-10.3
KEY PLAY · Q3 9:50
Timeout Tulane, clock 09:50
+6.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:10
Timeout Tulane, clock 03:10
-6.2