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Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadTULN aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreTULN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:24 · Conor Hunt punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Keys III at the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:12: Michael Pratt pass complete to Alex Bauman for 1 yd for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — TULN win probability +8.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:44: Juma Otoviano run for 3 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK) — RICE win probability +7.5 pts (now 22%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:15: JT Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 4 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK) — RICE win probability +15.4 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
- TD · Q4 8:16: JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 35 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK) — RICE win probability +29.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q4 8:16: PENALTY Tulane Face Mask (Pedescleaux,Kam) 15 yards from Rice35 to Rice50. NO PLAY. — TULN win probability +7.7 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TULN made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
- Q1 12:57TULN 4th & 4 at RICE 26, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 72.7% before the snapGo for it72.6%48% to convertField goalTheir call72.6%−<0.164% to makePunt72.2%−0.4average punt
- Q1 11:12RICE 4th & 4 at RICE 24, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snapGo for it27.7%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.7%average punt
- Q2 12:45RICE 4th & 18 at RICE 17, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snapGo for it24.5%−1.012% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.6%average punt
- Q2 8:19TULN 4th & 8 at RICE 11, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.0% before the snapGo for it72.6%−0.229% to convertField goalTheir call72.8%87% to makePunt69.8%−3.0average punt
- Q2 7:24RICE 4th & 10 at RICE 20, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snapGo for it23.6%−0.527% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.1%average punt
- Q2 7:24TULN 4th & 1 at RICE 41, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call74.6%70% to convertField goal73.4%−1.232% to makePunt73.6%−1.0average punt
- Q3 2:08TULN 4th & 2 at TULN 33, up 6Close callPunted · 72.4% before the snapGo for it73.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 0:30RICE 4th & 8 at RICE 26, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snapGo for it28.7%−2.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.0%average punt
- Q4 11:41TULN 4th & 5 at RICE 25, up 6Close callKicked a field goal · 75.5% before the snapGo for it75.6%41% to convertField goalTheir call75.5%−0.166% to makePunt66.7%−9.0average punt
- Q4 1:33TULN 4th & 1 at RICE 6, up 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.9%69% to convertField goal70.5%−12.491% to makePunt39.2%−43.7average punt
- Q4 0:04TULN 4th & 14 at RICE 14, up 2Numbers favored field goal by 14.2 ptsWent for it · 86.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call79.0%−14.216% to convertField goal93.2%84% to makePunt59.2%−34.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TULN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 9:23TULN Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.6%97% to makeGo for two72.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:26RICE Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call30.2%97% to makeGo for two30.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:59TULN Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.6%97% to makeGo for two73.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:12TULN Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.2%97% to makeGo for two81.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:44RICE Touchdown, down 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call15.5%97% to makeGo for two15.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:15RICE Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.7%97% to makeGo for two26.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:16RICE Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.3%97% to makeGo for two34.9%−1.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTULNDrive 1FG6 plays · 49 yds · 2:0376% → 75%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
24.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 4 yds to the RICE 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4125% → 26%
Q1 12:53
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+7
25.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 7 yds to the RICE 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 3TD4 plays · 78 yds · 1:4974% → 75%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+38
26.1%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 38 yds to the RICE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
25.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Alex Bauman for 6 yds to the RICE 34Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+8
25.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 8 yds to the RICE 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
25.0%
Yulkeith Brown 26 Yd pass from Michael Pratt (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4TD9 plays · 82 yds · 3:5026% → 29%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
25.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 13 yds to the RICE 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+14
25.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Juma Otoviano for 14 yds to the RICE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
25.8%
PENALTY Tulane Pass Interference (Despanie,Bailey) 15 yards from Rice49 to Tulane36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+12
26.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 12 yds to the TULN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
26.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for 14 yds to the TULN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 5TD16 plays · 75 yds · 6:2772% → 75%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
28.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 10 yds to the TULN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-5
28.0%
PENALTY Tulane False Start (Hurst,Shadre) 5 yards from Tulane41 to Tulane36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:26
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+15
28.6%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 15 yds to the RICE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+7
27.8%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 7 yds to the RICE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+15
28.4%
PENALTY Rice Pass Interference (Taylor,Gabriel) 15 yards from Rice32 to Rice17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 1:1425% → 24%
Q2 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
24.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 7 yds to the RICE 32Similar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-15
24.8%
PENALTY Rice Pass Interference (Groen,Boden) 15 yards from Rice32 to Rice17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
24.0%
Conor Hunt punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jha'Quan Jackson at the TULN 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 7MISSED FG9 plays · 44 yds · 4:2675% → 74%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
25.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
25.1%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 11 yds to the RICE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
24.9%
PENALTY Tulane False Start (Hurst,Shadre) 5 yards from Rice13 to Rice18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+1
24.9%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 1 yd to the RICE 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5525% → 23%
Q2 7:24
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
23.1%
Conor Hunt punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Keys III at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9TD8 plays · 50 yds · 4:1277% → 86%
RICEDrive 10INT10 plays · 23 yds · 2:5617% → 16%
TULNDrive 11FG4 plays · 35 yds · 0:1687% → 93%
RICEDrive 12TD13 plays · 75 yds · 7:1613% → 22%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
12.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 5 yds to the RICE 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
12.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 5 yds to the RICE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
13.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Jack Bradley for 9 yds to the TULN 44Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
14.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 9 yds to the TULN 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13INT7 plays · 34 yds · 2:4484% → 88%
Q3 7:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+18
15.4%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 18 yds to the TULN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14TD2 plays · 3 yds · 0:4521% → 37%
TULNDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0773% → 73%
Q3 4:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-7
26.3%
Michael Pratt sacked by Michael Larbie for a loss of 7 yards to the TULN 21Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+12
28.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Makhi Hughes for 12 yds to the TULN 33Similar
Q3 2:08
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+5
27.0%
Will Karoll punt for 48 yds , Sean Fresch returns for 5 yds to the RICE 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3831% → 29%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 17FG8 plays · 30 yds · 3:4977% → 80%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+7
22.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 7 yds to the RICE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
22.4%
Michael Pratt sacked by Jonathan Jean for a loss of 5 yards to the RICE 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+4
22.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Alex Bauman for 4 yds to the RICE 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2521% → 46%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
20.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 16 yds to the RICE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
22.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 5 yds to the RICE 46Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+5
23.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 5 yds to the TULN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+12
24.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 12 yds to the TULN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
53.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 35 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
Q4 8:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
53.6%
PENALTY Rice False Start (Horn,Tim) 5 yards from Tulane03 to Tulane08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
45.9%
PENALTY Tulane Face Mask (Pedescleaux,Kam) 15 yards from Rice35 to Rice50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 19DOWNS23 plays · 54 yds · 8:0664% → 93%
Q4 8:10
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+24
34.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 24 yds to the RICE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
33.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Alex Bauman for 3 yds to the RICE 34Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+5
33.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 5 yds to the RICE 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 4
OPP 20
-5
31.3%
PENALTY Tulane False Start (Wire,Cameron) 5 yards from Rice20 to Rice25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+10
31.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Alex Bauman for 10 yds to the RICE 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20Uncategorized1 play · 8 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
13.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 8 yds to the RICE 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:16
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 35 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
+29
TD · Q3 4:15
JT Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 4 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
+15.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-13.5