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UNT

North Texas 28 at Tulane 35

TULN
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023 · Yulman Stadium
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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:33 · Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Kaylon Horton
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Pregame prior+25.0Home team on offense+10.0Score differential+3.9Garbage-time factor+1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.7Time remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:20: Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 7 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK) — UNT win probability +5.9 pts (now 10%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:05: Ayo Adeyi run for 18 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK) — UNT win probability +6.8 pts (now 9%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:17: Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK) — UNT win probability +11.5 pts (now 21%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:08: Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 6 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK) — UNT win probability +28.6 pts (now 46%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:34: Michael Pratt run for 19 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — TULN win probability +22.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:32UNT 4th & 2 at TULN 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:40UNT 4th & 10 at UNT 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:19UNT 4th & 2 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:56UNT 4th & 6 at TULN 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    12.4%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:56TULN 4th & 1 at UNT 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    87.6%−0.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    87.3%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:29TULN 4th & 3 at UNT 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    87.0%−0.2
    72% to make
    Punt
    85.1%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:33UNT 4th & 3 at TULN 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    9.7%−0.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:58UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:09TULN 4th & 4 at TULN 31, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:20TULN 4th & 1 at TULN 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    91.5%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:43TULN 4th & 4 at TULN 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:48UNT 4th & 1 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.2%−5.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:34TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:12TULN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:17TULN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:20UNT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:39TULN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:05UNT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:17UNT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:08UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.1%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:34TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1DOWNS
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:289% → 10%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
90.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Smart for 6 yds to the UNT 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+14
90.7%
Chandler Rogers run for 14 yds to the UNT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
90.7%
Ayo Adeyi run for no gain to the UNT 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
90.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Smart for no gain to the UNT 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+8
90.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 8 yds to the TULN 47Similar
Q1 12:32
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
90.0%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Roderic BurnsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:5890% → 90%
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+31
90.2%
Makhi Hughes run for 31 yds to the UNT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
90.2%
Makhi Hughes run for 4 yds to the UNT 18Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+9
90.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 9 yds to the UNT 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
90.2%
Michael Pratt run for 6 yds to the UNT 3Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
90.2%
Makhi Hughes run for 1 yd to the UNT 2Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Alex Bauman for 2 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5410% → 10%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.9%
Oscar Adaway III run for no gain to the UNT 25Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
89.9%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Ja'Mori MaclinSimilar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
90.0%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Blair ConwrightSimilar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
90.0%
Sawyer Evans punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jha'Quan Jackson at the TULN 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4FUMBLE
9 plays · 61 yds · 4:2190% → 90%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
90.0%
Jha'Quan Jackson run for 17 yds to the UNT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
90.1%
Makhi Hughes run for 5 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+4
90.1%
Michael Pratt run for 4 yds to the UNT 35Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
90.0%
Michael Pratt run for 2 yds to the UNT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
90.1%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Makhi Hughes for 7 yds to the UNT 26Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+18
90.1%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 18 yds to the UNT 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
90.1%
Makhi Hughes run for 4 yds to the UNT 4Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
90.1%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
Q1 4:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
89.5%
Michael Pratt run for 4 yds Michael Pratt fumbled, recovered by UNT Logan WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5DOWNS
11 plays · 42 yds · 4:2311% → 12%
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
89.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 12 yds to the UNT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
89.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 5 yds to the UNT 37Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+5
88.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 5 yds to the UNT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
88.9%
Chandler Rogers run for no gain to the UNT 42Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
89.0%
Chandler Rogers run for 4 yds to the UNT 46Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+4
88.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:19
4TH & 2
50
+8
89.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 8 yds to the TULN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
88.7%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Roderic BurnsSimilar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
88.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 4 yds to the TULN 46Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 46
+8
88.2%
Chandler Rogers run for 8 yds to the TULN 38Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
88.0%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Carson KroppSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6DOWNS
9 plays · 39 yds · 4:2789% → 88%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
88.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 22 yds to the UNT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
89.0%
Makhi Hughes run for 3 yds to the UNT 37Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+6
89.0%
Makhi Hughes run for 6 yds to the UNT 31Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 1
OPP 31
0
88.8%
Makhi Hughes run for no gain to the UNT 31Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+2
88.6%
Michael Pratt run for 2 yds to the UNT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
89.0%
Makhi Hughes run for 6 yds to the UNT 23Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+1
89.0%
Makhi Hughes run for 1 yd to the UNT 22Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 3
OPP 22
0
88.8%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Lawrence Keys IIISimilar
Q2 10:29
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+1
87.7%
Michael Pratt run for 1 yd to the UNT 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:4413% → 14%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
87.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 4 yds to the UNT 27Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+14
87.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Blair Conwright for 14 yds to the UNT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
86.9%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
87.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 8 yds to the UNT 49Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
86.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the UNT 48 Oscar Adaway III fumbled, recovered by TULN Patrick JenkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8TD
8 plays · 48 yds · 3:3388% → 91%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
88.2%
Arnold Barnes III run for 10 yds to the UNT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
88.3%
Arnold Barnes III run for no gain to the UNT 38Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
88.2%
Shedro Louis run for 6 yds to the UNT 32Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+6
88.0%
Shedro Louis run for 6 yds to the UNT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
88.3%
Michael Pratt run for 14 yds to the UNT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
88.3%
Makhi Hughes run for 2 yds to the UNT 10Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
88.3%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Lawrence Keys IIISimilar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
91.2%
Makhi Hughes run for 10 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9DOWNS
13 plays · 36 yds · 3:3910% → 10%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.5%
Chandler Rogers run for 4 yds to the UNT 21 Chandler Rogers fumbled, recovered by UNT Chandler RogersSimilar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+12
90.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 12 yds to the UNT 33Similar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
90.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 3 yds to the UNT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
90.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 3 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+15
90.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Rogers,Chandler pass complete short left to Kautai,Xzavior for 0 yards to the UNT39, End Of Play PENALTY TLN Personal Foul (Hodges,Darius) 15 yards from UNT39 to TLN46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
89.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the TULN 45Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 9
OPP 45
-5
89.9%
PENALTY UNT False Start (Ward,Damon) 5 yards from TLN45 to TLN50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 14
50
0
91.3%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan SmartSimilar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 14
50
+11
91.5%
Chandler Rogers run for 11 yds to the TULN 39Similar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
90.5%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Kaylon HortonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
92.5%
Michael Pratt pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:279% → 8%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
91.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 4 yds to the UNT 15Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 14
OWN 15
+3
91.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the UNT 18Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 11
OWN 18
+6
91.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Smart for 6 yds to the UNT 24Similar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
92.3%
Sawyer Evans punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jha'Quan Jackson at the TULN 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 12TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 0:4193% → 97%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
93.4%
Michael Pratt run for 5 yds to the TULN 32Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+28
93.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 28 yds to the UNT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
93.7%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Lawrence Keys IIISimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+17
93.7%
Makhi Hughes run for 17 yds to the UNT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
97.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 23 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
97.5%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the UNT 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:5197% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.6%
PENALTY TLN False Start (Carter,Chris) 5 yards from TLN25 to TLN20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
96.5%
Arnold Barnes III run for 8 yds to the TULN 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
96.6%
Arnold Barnes III run for 2 yds to the TULN 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
96.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 1 yd to the TULN 31Similar
Q3 13:09
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
96.6%
Will Karoll punt for 57 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the UNT 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 2:494% → 10%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+11
96.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 11 yds to the UNT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
96.4%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Damon WardSimilar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+42
96.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 42 yds to the TULN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
95.8%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Roderic BurnsSimilar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
95.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 7 yds to the TULN 28Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+5
95.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 5 yds to the TULN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
95.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 16 yds to the TULN 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
95.7%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Ja'Mori MaclinSimilar
Q3 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
89.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 7 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:4192% → 98%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.3%
Michael Pratt run for 6 yds to the TULN 31Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
92.4%
Makhi Hughes run for 2 yds to the TULN 33Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
92.1%
Michael Pratt run for 1 yd to the TULN 34Similar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
91.8%
Michael Pratt run for 2 yds to the TULN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
92.5%
Makhi Hughes run for 13 yds to the TULN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
92.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 19 yds to the UNT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
92.8%
Arnold Barnes III run for 3 yds to the UNT 29Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+5
92.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 5 yds to the UNT 24Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+3
92.5%
Arnold Barnes III run for 3 yds to the UNT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
97.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Alex Bauman for 21 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:342% → 9%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Oscar Adaway III for 8 yds to the UNT 33Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+43
97.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Blair Conwright for 43 yds to the TULN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
97.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 6 yds to the TULN 18Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+18
90.6%
Ayo Adeyi run for 18 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18TD
10 plays · 53 yds · 2:478% → 21%
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
91.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Rogers,Chandler pass incomplete deep left to Maclin,Ja'Mori PENALTY TLN Holding (Pleasant,Rayshawn) 10 yards from UNT47 to TLN43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
91.4%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Damon WardSimilar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
91.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 8 yds to the TULN 35Similar
Q3 3:04
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+3
91.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the TULN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
90.9%
Landon Sides run for 8 yds to the TULN 24Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+12
90.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 12 yds to the TULN 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
90.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Damon WardSimilar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+11
91.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to for 11 yds fumbled, recovered by TULN for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.5%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1789% → 88%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.7%
Makhi Hughes run for 3 yds to the TULN 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
88.7%
Arnold Barnes III run for 3 yds to the TULN 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
88.3%
Michael Pratt run for no gain to the TULN 31Similar
Q4 13:43
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
87.8%
Will Karoll punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the UNT 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 4:3515% → 46%
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
85.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Blair Conwright for 6 yds to the UNT 41Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+1
83.7%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the UNT 42Similar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+4
83.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 4 yds to the UNT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
83.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 8 yds to the TULN 46Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+1
82.4%
Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the TULN 47Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+7
84.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Blair Conwright for 7 yds to the TULN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
84.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Rogers,Chandler pass incomplete short middle to Conwright,Blair PENALTY TLN Pass Interference (Grubbs,Tyler) 15 yards from TLN40 to TLN25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
82.7%
Chandler Rogers run for 5 yds to the TULN 20Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+16
82.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 16 yds to the TULN 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
82.7%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the TULN 1Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
82.7%
PENALTY UNT False Start (Moreka,Kaci) 5 yards from TLN01 to TLN06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
54.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 6 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 21TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:3467% → 95%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
66.7%
Michael Pratt run for 3 yds to the TULN 28Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
67.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Makhi Hughes for 6 yds to the TULN 34Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
67.6%
Makhi Hughes run for 4 yds to the TULN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
68.8%
Michael Pratt run for 3 yds to the TULN 41Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+6
70.0%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 6 yds to the TULN 47Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
69.9%
Makhi Hughes run for 2 yds to the TULN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
70.9%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 19 yds to the UNT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
73.4%
Makhi Hughes run for 1 yd to the UNT 33Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+8
73.1%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 8 yds to the UNT 25Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+8
71.5%
Makhi Hughes run for 8 yds to the UNT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
73.4%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Lawrence Keys IIISimilar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+2
73.4%
Arnold Barnes III run for 2 yds to the UNT 19Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+19
95.4%
Michael Pratt run for 19 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 1:4210% → 9%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+16
90.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 16 yds to the UNT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
89.7%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Tyler Grubbs for a loss of 4 yards to the UNT 25Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 14
OWN 25
+16
92.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 16 yds to the UNT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
91.0%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Damon WardSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
91.4%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Roderic BurnsSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+9
92.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:48
4TH & 1
50
0
90.9%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Landon SidesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:4897% → 97%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
50
-1
97.0%
M. Pratt takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-1
96.8%
M. Pratt takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:08
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 6 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)
-28.6
TD · Q4 2:34
Michael Pratt run for 19 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)
+22
TD · Q3 0:17
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)
-11.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com