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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreUAB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:05 · Matt Quinn 48 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 5:05: Matt Quinn 48 yd FG GOOD — UAB win probability +7.8 pts (now 30%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:46: Makhi Hughes run for 1 yd for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — TULN win probability +9.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:35: Makhi Hughes run for 18 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — TULN win probability +9.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:50: Michael Pratt pass complete to Alex Bauman for 14 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — TULN win probability +10.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- FG · Q4 4:52: Matt Quinn 36 yd FG GOOD — UAB win probability +11.8 pts (now 25%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UAB made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 9:19UAB 4th & 8 at TULN 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.8% before the snapGo for it9.7%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call9.8%84% to makePunt9.3%−0.4average punt
- Q1 7:10TULN 4th & 5 at TULN 38, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snapGo for it89.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.2%average punt
- Q1 4:51UAB 4th & 2 at UAB 19, up 3Close callPunted · 11.3% before the snapGo for it11.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 4:51TULN 4th & 6 at UAB 38, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.5%40% to convertField goal88.4%−0.138% to makePunt88.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:50UAB 4th & 6 at TULN 42, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.4%40% to convertField goal11.2%−0.230% to makePunt11.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 8:43TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 28, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snapGo for it75.2%−0.436% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.6%average punt
- Q2 5:05UAB 4th & 10 at TULN 31, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.0% before the snapGo for it27.5%−0.229% to convertField goalTheir call27.7%54% to makePunt27.0%−0.7average punt
- Q2 0:00UAB 4th & 1 at UAB 42, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt31.2%−1.5average punt
- Q3 11:36UAB 4th & 4 at UAB 31, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snapGo for it19.2%−0.748% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.9%average punt
- Q4 8:00TULN 4th & 5 at UAB 27, up 8Close callKicked a field goal · 91.4% before the snapGo for it91.0%41% to convertField goalTheir call91.0%−0.162% to makePunt86.6%−4.4average punt
- Q4 4:52UAB 4th & 6 at TULN 18, down 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.4% before the snapGo for it8.9%−1.938% to convertField goalTheir call10.8%79% to makePunt2.9%−7.9average punt
- Q4 2:38TULN 4th & 1 at UAB 40, up 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call89.7%70% to convertField goal84.8%−4.934% to makePunt84.5%−5.2average punt
- Q4 0:47TULN 4th & 9 at UAB 32, up 5Close callWent for it · 92.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.9%−0.632% to convertField goal92.5%51% to makePunt90.9%−1.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UAB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 2:50TULN Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.8%97% to makeGo for two88.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:08UAB Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call14.9%97% to makeGo for two14.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:15UAB Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.9%97% to makeGo for two21.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:46TULN Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.6%97% to makeGo for two68.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:35TULN Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.0%97% to makeGo for two77.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:50TULN Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.6%97% to makeGo for two85.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:47TULN Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.7%97% to makeGo for two95.4%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUABDrive 1FG12 plays · 65 yds · 5:368% → 9%
Q1 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+8
92.4%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 8 yds to the UAB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
92.4%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 6 yds to the UAB 39Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+35
92.4%
Brandon Buckhaulter run for 35 yds to the TULN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
92.4%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Isaiah Jacobs for no gain to the TULN 26Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+10
92.4%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 10 yds to the TULN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-7
92.4%
Jacob Zeno sacked by Devean Deal for a loss of 7 yards to the TULN 23Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 17
OPP 23
+4
92.4%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 4 yds to the TULN 19Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 13
OPP 19
+5
92.4%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Amare Thomas for 5 yds to the TULN 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 18 yds · 2:0491% → 90%
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
90.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Alex Bauman for 3 yds to the TULN 23Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+10
90.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 10 yds to the TULN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+5
90.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Pratt,Michael pass incomplete deep middle to Brown,Yulkeith PENALTY UAB Offside (Fairbanks II,Michael) 5 yards from TLN33 to TLN38. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:1910% → 11%
Q1 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+10
90.2%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Amare Thomas for 10 yds to the UAB 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+5
90.2%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 5 yds to the UAB 19Similar
Q1 4:51
4TH & 2
OWN 19
0
89.5%
Patrick Foley punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jha'Quan Jackson at the TULN 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4TD7 plays · 52 yds · 2:0190% → 90%
Q1 4:51
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-5
89.5%
PENALTY TLN False Start (Hurst,Shadre) 5 yards from UAB42 to UAB47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:51
4TH & 6
OPP 38
+23
89.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 23 yds to the UAB 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
90.3%
Yulkeith Brown run for 15 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 5TD14 plays · 75 yds · 4:4210% → 15%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
89.7%
Tulane Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Patrick Jenkins) to the TULN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
89.4%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Terrell McDonald for no gain to the TULN 46Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+5
89.7%
PENALTY TLN Offside (Hodges,Darius) 5 yards from TLN46 to TLN41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 6
OPP 42
+11
89.8%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Amare Thomas for 11 yds to the TULN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
88.2%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 11 yds to the TULN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
88.1%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Terrell McDonald for 7 yds to the TULN 2Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+4
88.1%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the TULN 0 for a 1ST down Tulane Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Devean Deal) to the TULN 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6FUMBLE7 plays · -1 yds · 2:1486% → 85%
UABDrive 7TD2 plays · 24 yds · 0:3917% → 21%
TULNDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3279% → 77%
UABDrive 9FG8 plays · 37 yds · 3:3822% → 30%
Q2 8:43
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+4
77.9%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 4 yds to the UAB 38Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+5
77.5%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 5 yds to the UAB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 11
OPP 32
-8
77.2%
Jacob Zeno sacked by Darius Hodges for a loss of 8 yards to the TULN 40Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 19
OPP 40
+9
77.9%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Amare Thomas for 9 yds to the TULN 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1970% → 76%
UABDrive 11DOWNS8 plays · 19 yds · 0:4230% → 32%
TULNDrive 12TD4 plays · 63 yds · 1:1873% → 85%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+37
73.0%
Jha'Quan Jackson run for 24 yds to the UAB 39 for a 1ST down run for 37 yds to the UAB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5918% → 18%
TULNDrive 14FUMBLE8 plays · 63 yds · 4:3081% → 82%
Q3 7:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
82.1%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 4 yds to the UAB 5 Shaadie Clayton-Johnson fumbled, recovered by UAB Kendall JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 15DOWNS7 plays · 51 yds · 2:2121% → 25%
TULNDrive 16TD5 plays · 56 yds · 1:5580% → 91%
UABDrive 17FUMBLE12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0511% → 15%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
88.9%
Fred Farrier II pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 28 yds to the TULN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
86.9%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Amare Thomas for 10 yds to the TULN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.1%
Jacob Zeno run for 1 yd Jacob Zeno fumbled, recovered by TULN Bailey DespanieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18MISSED FG12 plays · 53 yds · 5:4590% → 92%
Q4 13:45
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+7
89.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Makhi Hughes for 7 yds to the TULN 28Similar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+5
89.4%
PENALTY UAB Illegal Substitution 5 yards from TLN28 to TLN33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+22
91.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 22 yds to the UAB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 19FG9 plays · 55 yds · 3:0811% → 25%
Q4 8:00
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+22
88.4%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Dallas Payne for 22 yds to the TULN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+18
87.1%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Samario Rudolph for 18 yds to the TULN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
85.1%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Samario Rudolph for 4 yds to the TULN 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20TD15 plays · 61 yds · 3:5588% → 99%
Q4 4:42
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+10
88.0%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 10 yds to the UAB 42Similar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+7
90.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Alex Bauman for 7 yds to the UAB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+32
98.6%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 32 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER5 plays · 31 yds · 0:412% → 2%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
98.1%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 8 yds to the UAB 43Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+10
98.1%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 10 yds to the TULN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+13
98.0%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Amare Thomas for 13 yds to the TULN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 4:52
Matt Quinn 36 yd FG GOOD
-11.8
TD · Q3 2:50
Michael Pratt pass complete to Alex Bauman for 14 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)
+10.3
TD · Q2 0:46
Makhi Hughes run for 1 yd for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)
+9.9