Try the model
TLSA

Tulsa 29 at East Carolina 27

ECU
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · Chase Meyer 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remainingGarbage-time factor
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:49: Bill Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK) — TLSA win probability +6.8 pts (now 47%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:27: Alex Flinn pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 32 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +9.2 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 3:15: Chase Meyer 26 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +9.5 pts (now 51%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:12: Andrew Conrad 26 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +8.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:01: Chase Meyer 37 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +58.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6TLSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 5:13TLSA 4th & 20 at ECU 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.6
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    36.9%−1.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:12TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 26, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:25ECU 4th & 15 at ECU 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:17ECU 4th & 1 at TLSA 45, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    51.3%−3.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    52.6%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:02ECU 4th & 2 at TLSA 12, up 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.0%−0.8
    86% to make
    Punt
    57.5%−7.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:01ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:16TLSA 4th & 5 at ECU 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    27.5%−7.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:15TLSA 4th & 8 at ECU 8, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−13.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:12ECU 4th & 2 at TLSA 9, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.8%−1.5
    89% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−19.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:09TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 36, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:50TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 48, down 1
    Close callPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:18ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 44, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.1 ptsPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%−4.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:31TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.2%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:34TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:20ECU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:48ECU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:54TLSA Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:49TLSA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:27ECU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2638% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+46
62.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 46 yds to the ECU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
62.0%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-2
62.0%
Anthony Watkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 31Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+31
61.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 31 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:1462% → 63%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
61.7%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Parker Moorer) to the ECU 20Similar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
61.7%
Alex Flinn run for 8 yds to the ECU 28Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+22
61.7%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
50
+5
61.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the TLSA 45Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+41
61.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 41 yds to the TLSA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
61.9%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the TLSA 4Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
62.6%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 4 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3MISSED FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 5:0738% → 36%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
62.1%
Anthony Watkins run for 22 yds to the TLSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
61.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 48Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+22
61.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Luke McGary for 22 yds to the ECU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
61.5%
Bill Jackson run for 2 yds to the ECU 28Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+10
61.5%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Carl Chester for 10 yds to the ECU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
61.5%
Bill Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 19Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 11
OPP 19
0
61.5%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 11
OPP 19
-12
61.7%
FRANCIS, Kirk scrambles up the middle for a gain of 15 yards to the ECU4, End of Play. PENALTY TLS Unnecessary Roughness on BRAY, Bryce enforced 12 yards from the ECU19 to the ECU31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 23
OPP 31
+3
62.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the ECU 28Similar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 20
OPP 28
+46
62.7%
Chase Meyer 46 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
63.6%
FLINN, Alex pass deep up the middle complete for 35 yards to RILES, Desirrio caught at the TLS13 and advanced to the TLS5 (WILLIAMS, Kanion). PENALTY ECU Holding on SACRA, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the TLS40 to the ECU50 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4TD
1 play · 40 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 20
50
+50
66.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 50 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3034% → 33%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
66.0%
Jordan Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 21Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+5
66.1%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Jordan Ford for 5 yds to the TLSA 26Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
66.3%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:12
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
67.2%
Angus Davies punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6TD
4 plays · 26 yds · 1:1835% → 40%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
64.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the ECU 24Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+9
64.7%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Carl Chester for 9 yds to the ECU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
64.7%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
60.4%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Luke McGary for 15 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2563% → 61%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
62.5%
Alex Flinn sacked by Julien Simon for a loss of 4 yards to the ECU 25Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 14
OWN 25
-1
62.3%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 24Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 15
OWN 24
0
61.8%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:25
4TH & 15
OWN 24
0
61.4%
Luke Larsen punt for 21 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:1139% → 47%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
60.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the ECU 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+10
60.9%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Anthony Watkins for 10 yds to the ECU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
60.4%
Anthony Watkins run for no gain to the ECU 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
60.4%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+33
60.9%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 33 yds to the ECU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.5%
Bill Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 4:1757% → 66%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
56.9%
Javious Bond run for 14 yds to the ECU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
57.3%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 10 yds to the ECU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
58.4%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
57.5%
Alex Flinn run for 5 yds to the TLSA 49Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+4
55.7%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 4 yds to the TLSA 45Similar
Q2 10:17
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+2
55.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the TLSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
56.2%
Jhari Patterson run for 6 yds to the TLSA 37Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+5
56.3%
Alex Flinn run for 5 yds to the TLSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
65.5%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 32 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10INT
12 plays · 32 yds · 5:0038% → 40%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.1%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
62.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Nick Rempert for 7 yds to the TLSA 32Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
62.0%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Nick Rempert for 4 yds to the TLSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
61.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 11 yds to the TLSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
60.0%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Carl Chester for 10 yds to the ECU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
59.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the ECU 41Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-5
59.8%
Tulsa Penalty, Encroachment on CANNADY, Jehlen enforced (-5 Yards) to the ECU 46Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 13
OPP 46
0
60.6%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 13
OPP 46
-15
61.6%
Tulsa Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the ECU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
59.7%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Ethan Hall for 1 yd to the ECU 43Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
59.8%
Bill Jackson run for no gain to the ECU 43Similar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
60.5%
Kirk Francis pass intercepted Shavon Revel return for no gain to the ECU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:2564% → 68%
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
64.1%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 12 yds to the ECU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
65.5%
Alex Flinn run for 4 yds to the ECU 44Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-5
66.1%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ECU 39Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+41
64.6%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 41 yds to the TLSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
67.1%
Alex Flinn run for 4 yds to the TLSA 16Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+4
67.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the TLSA 12Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 2
OPP 12
0
66.3%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the TLSA 12Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+29
67.7%
Andrew Conrad 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4966% → 65%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
65.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 7 yds to the ECU 31Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 3
OWN 31
0
66.8%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the ECU 31Similar
Q3 14:50
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
65.3%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jhari Patterson for no gain to the ECU 31Similar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
64.5%
Luke Larsen punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13FG
8 plays · 71 yds · 3:4535% → 39%
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
65.1%
Anthony Watkins run for 6 yds to the TLSA 25Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+9
64.4%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Carl Chester for 9 yds to the TLSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
64.4%
Anthony Watkins run for 4 yds to the TLSA 38Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+47
63.1%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 47 yds to the ECU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
60.1%
Jordan Ford run for 1 yd to the ECU 14Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+4
60.1%
Jordan Ford run for 4 yds to the ECU 10Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
61.4%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:16
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
61.5%
Chase Meyer 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:0864% → 65%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
64.1%
Javious Bond run for 4 yds to the ECU 34Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
65.1%
Javious Bond run for 5 yds to the ECU 39Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+15
65.5%
Alex Flinn run for 15 yds to the TLSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-8
67.5%
Alex Flinn sacked by Coleton Smith for a loss of 8 yards to the ECU 46Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 18
OWN 46
0
64.8%
Alex Flinn pass intercepted Demarco Jones return for no gain to the TLSA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 3:3237% → 51%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
63.2%
East Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (Samuel Dankah) to the TLSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
59.7%
Kirk Francis run for 2 yds to the TLSA 49Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+10
59.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 10 yds to the ECU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-14
59.3%
FRANCIS, Kirk scrambles to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the ECU37 (SHUFORD, Jason;LEWIS, Jeremy). PENALTY TLS Targeting on LI'O MARKS, Tautai enforced 14 yards from the ECU41 to the TLS45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 24
OWN 45
+15
61.8%
FRANCIS, Kirk pass deep to the left incomplete intended for REMPERT, Nick thrown to the ECU10. PENALTY ECU Pass Interference on NASH, Dontavius enforced 15 yards to the ECU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
59.3%
FRANCIS, Kirk pass deep to the left incomplete intended for REMPERT, Nick thrown to the ECU15. PENALTY ECU Pass Interference on REVEL, Shavon enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the ECU25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
57.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Carl Chester for 16 yds to the ECU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
57.5%
Anthony Watkins run for no gain to the ECU 9Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
57.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the ECU 8Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
58.5%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
49.0%
Chase Meyer 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 6:0352% → 66%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
52.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECU 26Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+26
52.1%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 26 yds to the TLSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
57.3%
Alex Flinn sacked by Mitchell Kulkin for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 12
50
+6
54.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 6 yds to the TLSA 44Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+9
56.7%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 9 yds to the TLSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
59.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the TLSA 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+17
59.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 17 yds to the TLSA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
59.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the TLSA 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 12
0
59.2%
Javious Bond run for no gain to the TLSA 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+3
56.9%
Alex Flinn run for 3 yds to the TLSA 9Similar
Q4 12:12
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+26
65.7%
Andrew Conrad 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5539% → 36%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
60.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the TLSA 35Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-3
60.4%
Anthony Watkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the TLSA 32Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+9
63.7%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Anthony Watkins for 9 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 1
OWN 41
-5
61.3%
Tulsa Penalty, False Start (Gabe Cantu) to the TLSA 36Similar
Q4 10:09
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
64.2%
Angus Davies punt for 47 yds, downed at the ECU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18INT
5 plays · 36 yds · 2:0364% → 68%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
64.2%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 13 yds to the ECU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
64.6%
Alex Flinn run for 21 yds to the TLSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
68.9%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
68.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the TLSA 47Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 8
OPP 47
-2
68.3%
Alex Flinn pass intercepted Jaise Oliver return for 2 yds to the TLSA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:1643% → 41%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
57.4%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 7 yds to the ECU 49Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+2
55.5%
Bill Jackson run for 2 yds to the ECU 47Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
56.1%
Bill Jackson run for no gain to the ECU 47Similar
Q4 6:58
4TH & 1
OPP 47
-5
56.5%
Tulsa Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TLSA 48Similar
Q4 6:50
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
59.0%
Angus Davies punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jsi Hatfield at the ECU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:3264% → 66%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
63.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the ECU 24Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+1
64.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECU 25Similar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+11
62.7%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 11 yds to the ECU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
65.9%
Alex Flinn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
64.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 9 yds to the ECU 45Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-1
67.8%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 44Similar
Q4 3:18
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
66.2%
Luke Larsen punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4739% → 35%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
60.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Nick Rempert for 6 yds to the TLSA 23Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+1
59.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 24Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
61.0%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
65.0%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22FUMBLE
1 play · -9 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-9
74.6%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 9 yards to the TLSA 33 Rahjai Harris fumbled, recovered by TLSA Ben Kopenski [NHSG] HARRIS, Rahjai rush up the middle for a loss of 9 yards, HARRIS, Rahjai fumbled at TLS24 , recovered by TLS KOPENSKI, Ben at the TLS33, returned 0 yards to the TLS33, End of Play, clock 02:24.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23FG
15 plays · 48 yds · 2:2340% → 95%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
59.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Luke McGary for 8 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 2
OWN 41
0
56.1%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+6
56.3%
Bill Jackson run for 6 yds to the TLSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+4
58.4%
Kirk Francis run for 4 yds to the ECU 45Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 2
OPP 45
-5
58.1%
Tulsa Penalty, False Start (Ben Kopenski) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
61.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Bill Jackson for 4 yds to the ECU 49Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 7
50
+9
62.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Bill Jackson for 9 yds to the ECU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
59.5%
Bill Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 42Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 11
OPP 42
0
61.5%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
61.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 8 yds to the ECU 19Similar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+15
70.5%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 15 yds to the ECU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+37
4.9%
Chase Meyer 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:01
Chase Meyer 37 yd FG GOOD
-58.2
FG · Q3 3:15
Chase Meyer 26 yd FG GOOD
-9.5
TD · Q2 8:27
Alex Flinn pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 32 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)
+9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com