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UNT

North Texas 35 at Tulsa 28

TLSA
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:17 · Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Roderic Burns
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 85Home team on offense−2.3Pregame prior−5.9Score differential−2.2Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:39: Anthony Watkins run for 36 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK) — TLSA win probability +11.3 pts (now 50%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:57: Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 25 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK) — UNT win probability +17.1 pts (now 59%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:08: Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Smart for 59 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK) — UNT win probability +14.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:56: Oscar Adaway III run for 77 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK) — UNT win probability +13.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:14: Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 7 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK) — TLSA win probability +22.1 pts (now 29%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 10:59UNT 4th & 17 at UNT 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:34TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:16TLSA 4th & 16 at TLSA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:04UNT 4th & 4 at UNT 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:25TLSA 4th & 8 at UNT 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:10UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:08TLSA 4th & 14 at TLSA 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:46UNT 4th & 10 at TLSA 41, tied
    Close callWent for it · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.4%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    50.0%−0.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    50.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:08TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:17UNT 4th & 5 at TLSA 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    51.8%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    50.4%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:09TLSA 4th & 10 at UNT 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:54TLSA 4th & 5 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:11TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:06UNT 4th & 17 at TLSA 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−1.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    83.9%−0.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:50TLSA 4th & 17 at TLSA 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−1.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:38UNT 4th & 2 at UNT 46, up 14
    Close callPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%−0.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:43UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    87.2%−2.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:45TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:07UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:46UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:39TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:38TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:57UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:08UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:56UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:14TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0940% → 42%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
39.8%
Anthony Watkins run for 5 yds to the TLSA 30Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
39.9%
PENALTY TLS False Start (Chester,Carl) 5 yards from TLS30 to TLS25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
40.0%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 16 yds to the TLSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
40.1%
Anthony Watkins run for 7 yds to the TLSA 48Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+2
40.4%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 1
50
+10
40.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Nick Rempert for 10 yds to the UNT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
41.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Nick Rempert for 40 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:3359% → 57%
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
41.4%
Ayo Adeyi run for 17 yds to the UNT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
41.4%
Ayo Adeyi run for no gain to the UNT 48Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
41.8%
Chandler Rogers run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 8
50
-9
42.0%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Ben Kopenski for a loss of 9 yards to the UNT 41Similar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 17
OWN 41
0
42.7%
Sawyer Evans punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1743% → 43%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
42.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the TLSA 20Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+5
43.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 5 yds to the TLSA 25Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 2
OWN 25
-5
43.2%
PENALTY TLS False Start (Simpson,Darrell) 5 yards from TLS25 to TLS20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
43.4%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
43.3%
Angus Davies punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNT 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 2:2057% → 59%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
43.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the UNT 41Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+49
44.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 49 yds to the TLSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
43.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the TLSA 7Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
43.5%
PENALTY UNT False Start (Blair,Gabe) 5 yards from TLS07 to TLS12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
43.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Oscar Adaway III for 2 yds to the TLSA 10Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
41.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 10 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:4542% → 42%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
42.3%
Bill Jackson run for 6 yds to the TLSA 31Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
42.8%
Bill Jackson run for 5 yds to the TLSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
42.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the TLSA 39Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-9
43.3%
Kirk Francis sacked by Nick Nakwaasah for a loss of 9 yards to the TLSA 30Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 16
OWN 30
0
42.2%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q1 5:16
4TH & 16
OWN 30
+9
42.0%
Angus Davies punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNT 39 , Roderic Burns returns for 9 yds to the UNT 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0458% → 57%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
42.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the UNT 37Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 12
OWN 37
0
42.8%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Ja'Mori MaclinSimilar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+8
43.1%
Chandler Rogers run for 8 yds to the UNT 45Similar
Q1 4:04
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
42.9%
Sawyer Evans punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Malachai Jones at the TLSA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7MISSED FG
14 plays · 48 yds · 5:2843% → 46%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
43.3%
Kirk Francis sacked by Ethan Wesloski for a loss of 3 yards to the TLSA 20Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+12
43.2%
Bill Jackson run for 12 yds to the TLSA 32Similar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
43.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the TLSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
44.1%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 12 yds to the TLSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
45.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 5 yds to the UNT 48Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+3
45.7%
Bill Jackson run for 3 yds to the UNT 45Similar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+2
45.7%
Bill Jackson run for 2 yds to the UNT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
46.2%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Bill Jackson for 9 yds to the UNT 34Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+4
46.8%
Jordan Ford run for 4 yds to the UNT 38Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+7
46.2%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 7 yds to the UNT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
47.0%
Bill Jackson run for 1 yd to the UNT 30Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
47.1%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Carl ChesterSimilar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+1
46.4%
Bill Jackson run for 1 yd to the UNT 29Similar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+47
45.6%
Chase Meyer 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0856% → 55%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
44.0%
Chandler Rogers sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the UNT 24Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 15
OWN 24
+10
44.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Oscar Adaway III for 10 yds to the UNT 34Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
44.5%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Blair ConwrightSimilar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
45.3%
Sawyer Evans punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Malachai Jones at the TLSA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:5646% → 45%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
45.7%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
45.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 4 yds to the TLSA 16Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
44.9%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
44.5%
Angus Davies punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TLSA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10TD
4 plays · 41 yds · 0:1957% → 63%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
42.8%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Kaylon HortonSimilar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
42.9%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Ayo AdeyiSimilar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
43.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Ja'Mori MaclinSimilar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 10
OPP 41
+41
37.3%
Chandler Rogers run for 41 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3338% → 37%
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.1%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Carl ChesterSimilar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.0%
Bill Jackson run for 5 yds to the TLSA 30Similar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
37.8%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
37.0%
Angus Davies punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the UNT 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12FUMBLE
8 plays · 12 yds · 3:0063% → 65%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
37.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the UNT 30Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 11
OWN 30
-10
37.4%
(09:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Rogers,Chandler pass complete deep left to Maclin,Ja'Mori for 35 yards to the TLS35 (Ray,Kendarin) PENALTY UNT Holding (Miner,Ethan) 10 yards from UNT30 to UNT20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 21
OWN 20
+9
37.5%
Chandler Rogers run for 9 yds to the UNT 29Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 12
OWN 29
+32
36.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Blair Conwright for 32 yds to the TLSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-15
33.8%
(07:57) No Huddle-Shotgun Rogers,Chandler pass complete short left to Maclin,Ja'Mori for 10 yards to the TLS29 (Hodge,Dayne), out of bounds PENALTY UNT Pass Interference (Smart,Jordan) 15 yards from TLS39 to UNT46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 25
OWN 46
+2
34.7%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the UNT 48Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 23
OWN 48
0
34.9%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Blair ConwrightSimilar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 23
OWN 48
-5
35.5%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Ben Kopenski for a loss of 5 yards to the UNT 43 Chandler Rogers fumbled, recovered by TLSA Joseph Anderson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13TD
2 plays · 43 yds · 0:1839% → 50%
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
38.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 7 yds to the UNT 36Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+36
50.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 36 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:0956% → 56%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
44.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ayo Adeyi for 3 yds to the UNT 38Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+1
43.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the UNT 39Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+25
44.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 25 yds to the TLSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
42.3%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Ja'Mori MaclinSimilar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
42.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 5 yds to the TLSA 31Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 5
OPP 31
0
42.4%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Trey ClevelandSimilar
Q2 4:17
4TH & 5
OPP 31
0
44.4%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Roderic BurnsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:3249% → 62%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
48.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 32Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+37
48.7%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Carl Chester for 37 yds to the UNT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
52.3%
Kamdyn Benjamin run for 8 yds to the UNT 23Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+7
52.4%
Anthony Watkins run for 7 yds to the UNT 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
52.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the UNT 14Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
52.4%
Bill Jackson run for no gain to the UNT 14Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+14
62.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Carl Chester for 14 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16TD
6 plays · 90 yds · 0:3640% → 59%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
59.8%
Chandler Rogers run for 7 yds to the UNT 17Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+18
59.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 18 yds to the UNT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
58.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 8 yds to the UNT 43Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+32
58.6%
Ayo Adeyi run for 32 yds to the TLSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
41.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 25 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:4850% → 48%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
50.1%
Bill Jackson run for 8 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
51.9%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Malachai Jones for 8 yds to the TLSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
51.0%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 12 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
52.4%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Carl ChesterSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
52.2%
Kirk Francis run for no gain to the UNT 47Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
49.8%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
48.2%
Angus Davies punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the UNT 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
45.3%
Ayo Adeyi run for 6 yds to the UNT 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:3854% → 70%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
45.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 7 yds to the UNT 27Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
44.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 2 yds to the UNT 29Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+8
46.0%
Ayo Adeyi run for 8 yds to the UNT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
45.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 4 yds to the UNT 41Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+59
30.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Smart for 59 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:0834% → 34%
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
34.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 12 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
34.7%
(12:48) No Huddle-Shotgun Watkins,Anthony rush left for 5 yards gain to the TLS42, out of bounds at TLS42 PENALTY TLS Holding (Cantu,Gabe) 10 yards from TLS37 to TLS27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+3
33.6%
Bill Jackson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 30Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+15
33.5%
(12:02) No Huddle-Shotgun Francis,Kirk pass incomplete deep left to Benjamin,Kamdyn PENALTY UNT Pass Interference (Texada,Ridge) 15 yards from TLS30 to TLS45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
35.9%
Bill Jackson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 42Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+8
34.2%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Nick Rempert for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 5
50
0
36.2%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q3 10:54
4TH & 5
50
0
34.4%
Angus Davies punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the UNT 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21TD
3 plays · 86 yds · 0:4868% → 81%
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
32.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 5 yds to the UNT 19Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+4
31.9%
Chandler Rogers run for 4 yds to the UNT 23Similar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+77
18.7%
Oscar Adaway III run for 77 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:4020% → 20%
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
20.4%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the TLSA 28Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
20.4%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Braylin PresleySimilar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
19.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 10 yds to the TLSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
21.4%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
20.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
20.5%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q3 8:11
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
19.8%
Angus Davies punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the UNT 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 37 yds · 3:5883% → 85%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
17.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 6 yds to the UNT 27Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+13
17.0%
Chandler Rogers run for 13 yds to the UNT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
15.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the UNT 41Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
15.2%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Ja'Mori MaclinSimilar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+14
15.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 14 yds to the TLSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
14.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 8 yds to the TLSA 37Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+2
13.8%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the TLSA 35 Ayo Adeyi fumbled, recovered by UNT Ayo Adeyi for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
13.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Trey ClevelandSimilar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-7
13.5%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Julien Simon for a loss of 7 yards to the TLSA 42Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 17
OPP 42
0
13.9%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Damon WardSimilar
Q3 4:06
4TH & 17
OPP 42
0
15.0%
Sawyer Evans punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Malachai Jones at the TLSA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:0916% → 14%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
16.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 4 yds to the TLSA 11Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 6
OWN 11
0
16.0%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+16
15.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 16 yds to the TLSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
16.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 4 yds to the TLSA 31Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+2
16.7%
Kirk Francis run for 2 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 8
OWN 29
-9
15.5%
Kirk Francis sacked by Mazin Richards for a loss of 9 yards to the TLSA 20Similar
Q3 1:50
4TH & 17
OWN 20
0
14.3%
Angus Davies punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the UNT 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25FUMBLE
7 plays · 53 yds · 3:1887% → 91%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
13.2%
Oscar Adaway III run for 9 yds to the UNT 35Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+13
12.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 13 yds to the UNT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
11.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 12 yds to the TLSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
11.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for 11 yds to the TLSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
9.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Oscar Adaway III for 14 yds to the TLSA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
9.1%
Chandler Rogers run for no gain to the TLSA 15Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-6
8.7%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Ben Kopenski for a loss of 6 yards to the TLSA 21 Chandler Rogers fumbled, recovered by TLSA Mitchell Kulkin , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:2713% → 13%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
13.3%
Bill Jackson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 25Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
13.3%
Kirk Francis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 3:0690% → 93%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
9.6%
Ayo Adeyi run for 6 yds to the UNT 33Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+5
9.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the UNT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
8.3%
Ayo Adeyi run for 4 yds to the UNT 42Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+1
7.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the UNT 43Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+3
7.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the UNT 46Similar
Q4 9:38
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
7.3%
Sawyer Evans punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 28TD
10 plays · 99 yds · 4:1710% → 29%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
9.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the TLSA 3Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+5
7.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 5 yds to the TLSA 8Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+13
6.9%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 13 yds to the TLSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
7.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Malachai Jones for 16 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
7.0%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Carl ChesterSimilar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+38
6.9%
Bill Jackson run for 38 yds to the UNT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
8.1%
Bill Jackson run for 2 yds to the UNT 23Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
7.9%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Carl ChesterSimilar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+16
7.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Carl Chester for 16 yds to the UNT 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
29.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 7 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 29END OF GAME
15 plays · 28 yds · 5:0886% → 96%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
14.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the UNT 26Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
13.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Blair Conwright for 8 yds to the UNT 34Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
13.5%
Oscar Adaway III run for 4 yds to the UNT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
11.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the UNT 41Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+2
9.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the UNT 43Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+4
9.9%
Chandler Rogers run for 4 yds to the UNT 47Similar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+3
9.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
6.2%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the TLSA 47Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+4
4.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for 4 yds to the TLSA 43Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 43
-4
3.9%
Kneel down by North Texas at TLS47 for loss of 4 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:14
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 7 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
+22.1
TD · Q2 0:57
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 25 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)
-17.1
TD · Q3 13:08
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Smart for 59 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)
-14.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com