Try the model
TLSA

Tulsa 22 at Tulane 24

TULN
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Yulman Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDEnd of GameFG-1.4TULN 89.2%Chase Meyer 37 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 14 · Q2 7:23
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:23 · Chase Meyer 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Pregame prior+33.6Home team on offense+0.9Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Time remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Michael Pratt pass complete to Alex Bauman for 39 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — TULN win probability +1.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:31: Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 8 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK) — TLSA win probability +1.9 pts (now 9%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 7:23: Chase Meyer 37 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +1.4 pts (now 11%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 9:21: Valentino Ambrosio 30 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +2.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:03: Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — TLSA win probability +23.9 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8TLSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 7:14TULN 4th & 1 at TLSA 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    91.1%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    90.6%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:54TLSA 4th & 5 at TULN 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    8.2%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:12TULN 4th & 4 at TULN 29, up 7
    Close callPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:04TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:41TULN 4th & 12 at TULN 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:23TLSA 4th & 8 at TULN 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:56TULN 4th & 3 at TULN 42, up 4
    Close callPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:09TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:19TLSA 4th & 5 at TULN 37, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.8%−0.3
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    17.1%
    40% to make
    Punt
    16.3%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:38TLSA 4th & 21 at TULN 44, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−1.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    8.4%−0.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:08TULN 4th & 5 at TULN 25, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:50TLSA 4th & 7 at TULN 11, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−3.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:55TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 40, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:58TLSA 4th & 7 at TULN 29, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−3.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:21TULN 4th & 5 at TLSA 12, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−5.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:04TLSA 4th & 14 at midfield, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:43TULN 4th & 4 at TULN 26, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:14TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:00TULN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:31TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:03TLSA Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    29.0%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1INT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:535% → 6%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds to the TLSA 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
94.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 6 yds to the TLSA 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
94.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 5 yds to the TLSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
94.9%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
94.9%
Braylon Braxton run for no gain to the TLSA 39Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
94.5%
Braylon Braxton pass interceptedSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
94.5%
Tulsa Penalty, Offsides (Everitt Rogers) to the TULN 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 5:5395% → 94%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 5
OWN 35
+8
94.5%
Makhi Hughes run for 8 yds to the TULN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
94.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 6 yds to the TULN 49Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+4
94.5%
Makhi Hughes run for 4 yds to the TLSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
94.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Alex Bauman for 7 yds to the TLSA 40Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+22
94.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Bryce Bohanon for 22 yds to the TLSA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
94.5%
Shedro Louis run for 3 yds to the TLSA 15Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+6
94.5%
Makhi Hughes run for 6 yds to the TLSA 9Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+5
94.5%
Makhi Hughes run for 5 yds to the TLSA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
94.5%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
94.5%
run for 2 yds to the TLSA 2Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
94.5%
Makhi Hughes run for 1 yd to the TLSA 1Similar
Q1 7:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.8%
Makhi Hughes run for 1 yd for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:206% → 7%
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
93.8%
Anthony Watkins run for 29 yds to the TULN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
93.6%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the TULN 44Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+3
93.6%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the TULN 41Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
93.6%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:54
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
93.4%
Angus Davies punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Keys III at the TULN 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:4294% → 93%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+16
93.6%
Shedro Louis run for 16 yds to the TULN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
93.6%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Reggie Brown for 5 yds to the TULN 28Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+1
93.6%
Shedro Louis run for 1 yd to the TULN 29Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
93.5%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:12
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
93.1%
Will Karoll punt for 41 yds, downed at the TLSA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:087% → 7%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
93.2%
Bill Jackson run for no gain to the TLSA 30Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-2
93.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Braylin Presley for a loss of 2 yards to the TLSA 28Similar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+4
93.4%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Anthony Watkins for 4 yds to the TLSA 32Similar
Q1 2:04
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
92.9%
Angus Davies punt for 50 yds, downed at the TULN 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6TD
5 plays · 82 yds · 2:0493% → 95%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
92.9%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Bryce Bohanon for 12 yds to the TULN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
92.9%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+30
92.9%
Makhi Hughes run for 30 yds to the TLSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
93.2%
Makhi Hughes run for 1 yd to the TLSA 39Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+39
94.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Alex Bauman for 39 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:296% → 9%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
93.9%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Carl Chester for 40 yds to the TULN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+26
93.5%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 26 yds to the TULN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
93.4%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
93.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Jordan Ford for 1 yd to the TULN 8Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
91.5%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 8 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:5092% → 91%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 5 yds to the TULN 30Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
92.3%
Michael Pratt run for 5 yds to the TULN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
92.3%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
92.2%
Makhi Hughes run for 2 yds to the TULN 37Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-4
92.2%
Michael Pratt sacked by Julien Simon and Owen Ostroski for a loss of 4 yards to the TULN 33Similar
Q2 10:41
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
91.2%
Will Karoll punt for 51 yds, downed at the TLSA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 3:189% → 11%
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
91.4%
Anthony Watkins run for no gain to the TLSA 16Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+13
91.5%
Kirk Francis run for 13 yds to the TLSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
91.4%
WATKINS, Anthony rush to the left for no gain to the TLS29, End of Play. PENALTY TLS Holding on HALL, Ethan enforced 10 yards from the TLS29 to the TLS19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+11
91.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Nick Rempert for 11 yds to the TLSA 30Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+3
91.2%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Malachai Jones for 3 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+25
91.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 25 yds to the TULN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+21
90.5%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 21 yds to the TULN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
90.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the TULN 19Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
90.0%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 8
OPP 19
0
90.6%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:23
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+37
89.2%
Chase Meyer 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:2790% → 88%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
89.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shedro Louis for 10 yds to the TULN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
89.6%
Shedro Louis run for 8 yds to the TULN 43Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-2
90.2%
Shedro Louis run for a loss of 2 yards to the TULN 41Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+1
89.8%
Makhi Hughes run for 1 yd to the TULN 42Similar
Q2 4:56
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
88.4%
Will Karoll punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4711% → 11%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
88.6%
Anthony Watkins run for no gain to the TLSA 19Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
88.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
89.2%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:09
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
89.3%
Angus Davies punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 12INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:3789% → 88%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
89.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Alex Bauman for 6 yds to the TULN 49Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+15
89.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Bryce Bohanon for 15 yds to the TLSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
89.4%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-10
89.3%
PRATT, Michael scrambles up the middle for no gain to the TLS36 (KOPENSKI, Ben). PENALTY TLN Holding on WIRE, Cameron enforced 10 yards from the TLS36 to the TLS46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 20
OPP 46
0
88.4%
Michael Pratt pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:1313% → 13%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
87.2%
Kirk Francis run for 10 yds to the TLSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
86.5%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 12 yds to the TULN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
86.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the TULN 40Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 8
OPP 40
-2
86.5%
Kirk Francis run for a loss of 2 yards to the TULN 42Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+5
87.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Carl Chester for 5 yds to the TULN 37Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 5
OPP 37
0
87.2%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:1988% → 88%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
87.9%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Makhi Hughes for 8 yds to the TULN 45Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+6
88.4%
Michael Pratt run for 6 yds to the TLSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
88.4%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 4:098% → 8%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
92.4%
Anthony Watkins run for 16 yds to the TLSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
92.1%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 42Similar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+5
92.1%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Anthony Watkins for 5 yds to the TLSA 47Similar
Q3 14:47
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+6
91.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Malachai Jones for 6 yds to the TULN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
91.7%
Jordan Ford run for 8 yds to the TULN 39Similar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+6
91.6%
Anthony Watkins run for 6 yds to the TULN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
91.3%
Kirk Francis run for a loss of 2 yards to the TULN 35Similar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 12
OPP 35
-9
91.6%
Kirk Francis sacked by Tyler Grubbs for a loss of 9 yards to the TULN 44Similar
Q3 14:47
3RD & 21
OPP 44
0
92.4%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:38
4TH & 21
OPP 44
0
92.3%
Angus Davies punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3093% → 92%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
93.1%
Shedro Louis run for 5 yds to the TULN 25Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
93.1%
Makhi Hughes run for no gain to the TULN 25Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
92.8%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:08
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
92.4%
Will Karoll punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17FG
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:188% → 8%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-9
92.0%
run for a loss of 9 yards to the TLSA 11Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+51
92.2%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 51 yds to the TULN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
91.2%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Carl Chester for 14 yds to the TULN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
90.4%
Jordan Ford run for 10 yds to the TULN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
90.4%
Jordan Ford run for 4 yds to the TULN 10Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+4
90.4%
Anthony Watkins run for 4 yds to the TULN 6Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 2
OPP 6
-5
91.0%
Tulsa Penalty, False Start (Will Farniok) to the TULN 11Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 7
OPP 11
0
91.0%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+30
91.9%
Chase Meyer 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4993% → 93%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
93.0%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Reggie Brown for 6 yds to the TULN 28Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
93.0%
Shedro Louis run for no gain to the TULN 28Similar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+9
92.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 9 yds to the TULN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
93.1%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
93.1%
Makhi Hughes run for 3 yds to the TULN 40Similar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
92.9%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:55
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
93.0%
Will Karoll punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 3:578% → 8%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
92.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 4 yds to the TLSA 27Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+16
92.0%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Carl Chester for 16 yds to the TLSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
91.7%
Jordan Ford run for 9 yds to the TULN 48Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 1
OPP 48
0
90.9%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
91.2%
Bill Jackson run for 2 yds to the TULN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
91.1%
Bill Jackson run for 4 yds to the TULN 42Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+10
90.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 10 yds to the TULN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
90.1%
Tulsa Penalty, False Start (Tautai Lio Marks) to the TULN 37Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+6
91.2%
Bill Jackson run for 6 yds to the TULN 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
90.2%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+2
91.0%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Colby Powers for 2 yds to the TULN 29Similar
Q4 13:58
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+47
92.2%
Chase Meyer 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 4:2993% → 91%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
93.4%
Makhi Hughes run for 3 yds to the TULN 31Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
93.4%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+26
93.1%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 26 yds to the TLSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
93.9%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+26
93.9%
Makhi Hughes run for 26 yds to the TLSA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
93.9%
Michael Pratt run for 2 yds to the TLSA 15Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 8
OPP 15
-5
93.9%
Shedro Louis run for a loss of 5 yards to the TLSA 20Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 13
OPP 20
+8
93.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Bryce Bohanon for 8 yds to the TLSA 12Similar
Q4 9:21
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+30
91.3%
Valentino Ambrosio 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:179% → 9%
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.6%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.7%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Braylin Presley for 5 yds to the TLSA 30Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
90.2%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Malachai Jones for 13 yds to the TLSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
89.0%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Nick Rempert for 6 yds to the TLSA 49Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+5
87.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Braylin Presley for 5 yds to the TULN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
87.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the TULN 43Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-7
87.8%
Kirk Francis sacked by Jarius Monroe for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 14
50
0
90.3%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 14
50
0
91.4%
Angus Davies punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Dontae Fleming at the TULN 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2193% → 93%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
92.7%
Makhi Hughes run for 6 yds to the TULN 26Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
92.8%
Makhi Hughes run for no gain to the TULN 26Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
92.4%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:43
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
93.0%
Will Karoll punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 1:4010% → 37%
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+57
90.4%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Carl Chester for 57 yds to the TULN 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
86.7%
Anthony Watkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the TULN 11Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+7
87.3%
CJ Coombes pass complete to Braylon Braxton for 7 yds to the TULN 4Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
63.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 24END OF GAME
11 plays · 39 yds · 2:5479% → 95%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.3%
Makhi Hughes run for 1 yd to the TULN 26Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
80.1%
Michael Pratt run for no gain to the TULN 26Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
78.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 10 yds to the TULN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+31
88.1%
Makhi Hughes run for 31 yds to the TLSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
91.7%
[NH] Kneel down by PRATT, Michael at TLS34 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 11
OPP 34
0
91.4%
[NH] Kneel down by PRATT, Michael at TLS35 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 35
0
95.3%
[NH] Kneel down by PRATT, Michael at TLS36 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:03
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-23.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+4.7
FG · Q4 9:21
Valentino Ambrosio 30 yd FG GOOD
-2.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com