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CLT

Charlotte 33 at Tulsa 26

TLSA
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreCLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:38 · Grant Gonya punt for 50 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 25 yds to the CLT 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Pregame prior+10.4Home team on offense+5.4Garbage-time factor+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Score differential+1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:29: Terron Kellman run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK) — CLT win probability +9.0 pts (now 31%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 10:38: Kyle Cunanan 49 yd FG GOOD — CLT win probability +11.3 pts (now 52%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:03: Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — TLSA win probability +29.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:59: Jack Hestera 18 Yd pass from Trexler Ivey (Trexler Ivey Pass to Colin Weber for Two-Point Conversion) — CLT win probability +72.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:05: Chase Meyer 27 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +33.0 pts (now 61%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9CLT made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 13:32CLT 4th & 12 at CLT 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:02TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:57CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:17CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:38CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:47TLSA 4th & 6 at CLT 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−6.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:15CLT 4th & 11 at TLSA 21, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    13.7%−7.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:00TLSA 4th & 20 at TLSA 11, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−3.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:00CLT 4th & 1 at TLSA 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.4%−2.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:38CLT 4th & 4 at TLSA 4, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.4%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−8.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:07TLSA 4th & 16 at TLSA 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−2.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:24CLT 4th & 13 at CLT 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−2.0
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:14TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:08TLSA 4th & 9 at CLT 15, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    60.7%−9.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:23CLT 4th & 5 at TLSA 5, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    17.1%−15.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:25TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 31, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−1.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:38CLT 4th & 9 at TLSA 31, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−2.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−4.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:39TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 15, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−0.9
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:05TLSA 4th & 9 at CLT 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−16.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    13.0%−33.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CLT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 5:54TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:08TLSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:29CLT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:03TLSA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    79.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    79.4%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:59CLT Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    64.6%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CLTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1836% → 36%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
64.0%
Terron Kellman run for 2 yds to the CLT 16Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 12
OWN 16
0
64.0%
Trexler Ivey pass incomplete to Jack HesteraSimilar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 12
OWN 16
0
64.0%
Terron Kellman run for no gain to the CLT 16Similar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 12
OWN 16
0
64.0%
Grant Gonya punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2264% → 64%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
64.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the TLSA 40Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+1
64.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 41Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+4
63.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 4 yds to the TLSA 45Similar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
63.9%
Angus Davies punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Henry Rutledge at the CLT 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:5936% → 37%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
63.8%
Terron Kellman run for 3 yds to the CLT 18Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+4
63.8%
Terron Kellman run for 4 yds to the CLT 22Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+19
63.8%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Terron Kellman for 19 yds to the CLT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
63.3%
Dom Shoffner run for no gain to the CLT 41Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
63.4%
Trexler Ivey run for 5 yds to the CLT 46Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
63.2%
Trexler Ivey pass incomplete to Colin WeberSimilar
Q1 8:57
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
63.5%
Grant Gonya punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 3:0364% → 68%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
63.6%
PENALTY CLT Personal Foul (Jones,Wayne) 15 yards from TLS18 to TLS33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
63.6%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Devan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+8
63.5%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Devan Williams for 8 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+2
63.8%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 2 yds to the TLSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+23
64.0%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Malachai Jones for 23 yds to the CLT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
64.4%
PENALTY TLS False Start 5 yards from CLT34 to CLT39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+2
64.0%
Braylin Presley run for 2 yds to the CLT 37Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+12
64.0%
Cardell Williams run for 12 yds to the CLT 25Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+16
64.2%
Bill Jackson run for 16 yds to the CLT 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
67.5%
Cardell Williams run for 9 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3734% → 33%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
66.5%
Trexler Ivey run for 1 yd to the CLT 26Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
66.5%
Terron Kellman run for 4 yds to the CLT 30Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
66.6%
Trexler Ivey pass incomplete to Colin WeberSimilar
Q1 4:17
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
67.5%
Grant Gonya punt for 43 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for no gain to the TLSA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0967% → 75%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
67.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 7 yds to the TLSA 32Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
67.6%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+30
67.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 30 yds to the CLT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
68.1%
Anthony Watkins run for 4 yds to the CLT 34Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+3
68.1%
Bill Jackson run for 3 yds to the CLT 31Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+3
67.8%
Bill Jackson run for 3 yds to the CLT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
68.1%
PENALTY TLS False Start 5 yards from CLT28 to CLT33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 15
OPP 33
0
68.0%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+24
67.7%
Cardell Williams run for 24 yds to the CLT 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
68.1%
Bill Jackson run for 2 yds to the CLT 7Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
68.1%
Jordan Ford run for 2 yds to the CLT 5Similar
Q1 0:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
74.5%
Cardell Williams run for 5 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2228% → 27%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
72.5%
Trexler Ivey pass incomplete to Terron KellmanSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
72.6%
Trexler Ivey pass incomplete to Jack HesteraSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
72.8%
Trexler Ivey pass incomplete to Jairus MackSimilar
Q2 14:38
4TH & 10
OWN 22
+25
73.0%
Grant Gonya punt for 50 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 25 yds to the CLT 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:5175% → 79%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
75.2%
Bill Jackson run for 16 yds to the CLT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
75.2%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
75.1%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Malachai Jones for 2 yds to the CLT 33Similar
Q2 14:38
3RD & 12
OPP 33
+20
74.6%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 20 yds to the CLT 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
75.2%
Bill Jackson run for 4 yds to the CLT 9Similar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 6
OPP 9
0
75.2%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Luke McGarySimilar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
75.0%
Bill Jackson run for no gain to the CLT 9Similar
Q2 11:47
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
79.4%
Chase Meyer 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9MISSED FG
7 plays · 54 yds · 1:3222% → 21%
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+55
77.7%
Henry Rutledge run for 55 yds to the TLSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
75.4%
Dom Shoffner run for 1 yd to the TLSA 21Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 11
OPP 21
0
75.7%
Dom Shoffner pass incomplete to Jack HesteraSimilar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 11
OPP 21
0
78.2%
Trexler Ivey pass incomplete to Colin WeberSimilar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+39
79.0%
Kyle Cunanan 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:1582% → 81%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
81.6%
Jordan Ford run for 3 yds to the TLSA 24Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+5
81.5%
Cardell Williams run for 5 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 2
OWN 29
-10
81.2%
Tulsa Penalty, Sideline Inteference (-10 Yards) to the TLSA 11Similar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 20
OWN 11
0
81.4%
Angus Davies punt for 44 yds , Henry Rutledge returns for no gain to the CLT 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 11FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 4:2221% → 23%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
79.3%
Dom Shoffner run for 3 yds to the CLT 40Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+5
80.2%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Andrew Jacobs for 5 yds to the CLT 45Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+7
79.6%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Henry Rutledge for 7 yds to the TLSA 48Similar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+35
79.1%
Henry Rutledge run for 35 yds to the TLSA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
77.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Ivey,Trexler pass incomplete short middle to Clemons,Jake broken up by Ray,Kendarin PENALTY TLS Pass Interference (Ray,Kendarin) 11 yard from TLS13 to TLS02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
77.7%
Shotgun Bearns III,Joseph rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TLS01 (Ray,Kendarin; Malone,Vontroy) PENALTY CLT Illegal Formation 5 yards from TLS02 to TLS07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
77.7%
Trexler Ivey sacked by Ben Kopenski for a loss of 2 yards to the TLSA 9Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
77.7%
Terron Kellman run for 5 yds to the TLSA 4Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
78.4%
Trexler Ivey pass incomplete to Colin WeberSimilar
Q2 4:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
77.2%
Kyle Cunanan 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12FUMBLE
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:3579% → 83%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
78.8%
Anthony Watkins run for 10 yds to the TLSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
78.8%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Devan Williams for 10 yds to the TLSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
79.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 46Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+4
79.6%
Cardell Williams run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 5
50
+6
82.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 6 yds to the CLT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
82.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Williams,Cardell rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CLT36 (Hill-Green,Nikhai) PENALTY TLS Holding (Burnett,Reynard) 10 yards from CLT44 to TLS46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+4
83.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Devan Williams for 4 yds Devan Williams fumbled, recovered by CLT Dontae Balfour , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 1:3421% → 31%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
50
+8
79.3%
Terron Kellman run for 8 yds to the TLSA 42Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+12
78.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Ivey,Trexler pass incomplete short middle to Thomas Jr.,Duane broken up by Williams,Kanion QB hurried by Ray,Kendarin, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TLS Pass Interference (Williams,Kanion) 12 yards from TLS42 to TLS30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
78.0%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 7 yds to the TLSA 23Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+22
77.8%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jairus Mack for 22 yds to the TLSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
77.8%
Terron Kellman run for no gain to the TLSA 1Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.9%
Terron Kellman run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:5373% → 71%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.8%
Anthony Watkins run for 4 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-10
73.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Braxton,Braylon pass incomplete short left to Williams,Devan PENALTY TLS Holding (Burnett,Reynard) 10 yards from TLS29 to TLS19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
72.4%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
71.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q3 14:07
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+20
70.8%
Angus Davies punt for 50 yds , Henry Rutledge returns for 20 yds to the TLSA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:4331% → 26%
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
69.4%
Henry Rutledge run for 1 yd to the TLSA 48Similar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+1
72.3%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Henry Rutledge for 1 yd to the CLT 48Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 9
OPP 48
-5
69.6%
PENALTY CLT False Start 5 yards from TLS48 to CLT47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 14
OWN 47
0
71.6%
Trexler Ivey pass incomplete to Jairus MackSimilar
Q3 12:24
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
73.7%
Grant Gonya punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TLSA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:1073% → 67%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
72.9%
Bill Jackson run for 6 yds to the TLSA 8Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 4
OWN 8
-26
72.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Jackson,Bill rush right for 26 yards gain to the TLS34 (Fagan,Dontez) PENALTY TLS Holding (Li'o Marks,Tautai) 1 yard from TLS08 to TLS07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 5
OWN 7
0
72.7%
Bill Jackson run for no gain to the TLSA 7Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+2
71.7%
Bill Jackson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 5Similar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 7
OWN 5
0
67.4%
Angus Davies punt blocked by Reid Williford, punt out-of-bounds at the TLSA 0 for a SAFETY blocked by Reid Williford for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18MISSED FG
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:0073% → 71%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
72.6%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
72.4%
Anthony Watkins run for 5 yds to the CLT 36Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+20
72.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 20 yds to the CLT 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
73.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 4 yds to the CLT 12Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+2
73.3%
Bill Jackson run for 2 yds to the CLT 10Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 4
OPP 10
-10
72.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Francis,Kirk pass complete short middle to Jones,Malachai for 2 yards to the CLT08 (Balfour,Dontae) PENALTY TLS Holding (Burnett,Reynard) 10 yards from CLT10 to CLT20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 14
OPP 20
+5
70.6%
Jordan Ford run for 5 yds to the CLT 15Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+33
71.2%
Chase Meyer 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19FG
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:4532% → 39%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
68.2%
Terron Kellman run for 3 yds to the CLT 23Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
68.3%
Terron Kellman run for 6 yds to the CLT 29Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
68.1%
Dom Shoffner run for 2 yds to the CLT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
67.6%
Terron Kellman run for 5 yds to the CLT 36Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+11
65.7%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Andrew Jacobs for 11 yds to the CLT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
64.7%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Colin Weber for 1 yd to the CLT 46Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
66.5%
Trexler Ivey pass incomplete to Jason JeffaresSimilar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+15
67.8%
Shotgun Ivey,Trexler sacked for loss of 14 yards to the CLT32 (Smith,Coleton) PENALTY TLS UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Ostroski,Owen) 15 yards from CLT46 to TLS39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
64.1%
Duane Thomas Jr. run for 8 yds to the TLSA 31Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+30
62.5%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Bryce Kennon for 30 yds to the TLSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.5%
Terron Kellman run for no gain to the TLSA 1Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.5%
Terron Kellman run for no gain to the TLSA 1Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+4
63.9%
Terron Kellman run for 4 yds to the TLSA 5Similar
Q3 0:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
61.0%
Kyle Cunanan 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:3565% → 63%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.1%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
64.8%
Anthony Watkins run for 5 yds to the TLSA 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
64.3%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Nick RempertSimilar
Q4 14:25
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+6
63.2%
Angus Davies punt for 44 yds , Henry Rutledge returns for 6 yds to the CLT 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:4738% → 52%
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
62.4%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jairus Mack for 12 yds to the CLT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
59.7%
Terron Kellman run for 2 yds to the CLT 45Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+3
59.3%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jairus Mack for 3 yds to the CLT 48Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+5
59.5%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jairus Mack for 5 yds to the TLSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
58.5%
Terron Kellman run for 5 yds to the TLSA 42Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+10
58.0%
Terron Kellman run for 10 yds to the TLSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
56.9%
Henry Rutledge run for 1 yd to the TLSA 31Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
57.0%
Trexler Ivey pass incomplete to Jairus MackSimilar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 9
OPP 31
0
59.0%
Trexler Ivey pass incomplete to Henry RutledgeSimilar
Q4 10:38
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+49
47.7%
Kyle Cunanan 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22TD
15 plays · 68 yds · 5:2851% → 88%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
51.2%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 5 yds to the TLSA 37Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
54.6%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+8
50.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 8 yds to the TLSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
55.1%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Carl ChesterSimilar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
52.9%
Bill Jackson run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 5
50
+5
54.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Devan Williams for 5 yds to the CLT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
56.6%
Anthony Watkins run for 5 yds to the CLT 40Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+3
56.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the CLT 37Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+4
55.8%
Anthony Watkins run for 4 yds to the CLT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
58.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 13 yds to the CLT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
58.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 5 yds to the CLT 15Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+8
58.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 8 yds to the CLT 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
58.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 6 yds to the CLT 1Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 23FUMBLE
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:5926% → 33%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
73.8%
Terron Kellman run for no gain to the CLT 27Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
75.0%
Terron Kellman run for 2 yds to the CLT 25Similar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+51
76.8%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jairus Mack for 51 yds to the TLSA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
66.0%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+11
66.9%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Colin Weber for 11 yds to the TLSA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
66.0%
Trexler Ivey pass incomplete to Bryce KennonSimilar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
66.0%
Terron Kellman run for 5 yds to the TLSA 8Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
67.0%
Trexler Ivey run for no gain to the TLSA 8 Trexler Ivey fumbled, recovered by TLSA Ben Kopenski No Huddle-Shotgun Ivey,Trexler rush middle for 0 yards to the TLS08 fumbled by Ivey,Trexler at TLS13 recovered by TLS Kopenski,Ben at TLS08, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:2092% → 93%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
92.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the TLSA 10Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+7
92.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 7 yds to the TLSA 17Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+2
93.5%
Braylon Braxton run for 2 yds to the TLSA 15Similar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
92.7%
Angus Davies punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Henry Rutledge at the CLT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 25TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 0:4012% → 92%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
87.9%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jairus Mack for 11 yds to the CLT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
86.9%
Trexler Ivey pass incomplete to Jairus MackSimilar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
87.6%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 6 yds to the CLT 47Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+35
86.0%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jack Hestera for 35 yds to the TLSA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
80.0%
Trexler Ivey pass incomplete to Duane Thomas Jr.Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
7.8%
Jack Hestera 18 Yd pass from Trexler Ivey (Trexler Ivey Pass to Colin Weber for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 0:5426% → 61%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
25.7%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Luke McGary for 5 yds to the TLSA 30Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
26.5%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Devan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
25.4%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 11 yds to the TLSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+40
29.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Carl Chester for 40 yds to the CLT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
35.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Francis,Kirk pass incomplete short left to Benjamin,Kamdyn QB hurried by Bemah,Prince PENALTY CLT Targeting (Bemah,Prince) 10 yards from CLT19 to CLT09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
35.6%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Nick RempertSimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
35.6%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Nick RempertSimilar
Q4 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
27.8%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Devan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
60.8%
Chase Meyer 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
50.6%
Kneel down by Charlotte at CLT23 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:59
Jack Hestera 18 Yd pass from Trexler Ivey (Trexler Ivey Pass to Colin Weber for Two-Point Conversion)
-72.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-50.6
FG · Q4 0:05
Chase Meyer 27 yd FG GOOD
+33
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com