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RICE

Rice 42 at Tulsa 10

TLSA
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2023 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreRICE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+3.3TLSA 38.5%Chase Meyer 45 yd FG GOODAWAY 14 - HOME 3 · Q2 5:45
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:45 · Chase Meyer 45 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 69Home team on offense−8.1Score differential−3.7Garbage-time factor−2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7Pregame prior+1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:42: JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 21 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK) — RICE win probability +5.1 pts (now 57%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:14: Cardell Williams pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 30 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK) — TLSA win probability +10.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:33: JT Daniels pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 17 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK) — RICE win probability +10.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:47: JT Daniels run for 8 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK) — RICE win probability +15.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:23: Dean Connors run for 2 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK) — RICE win probability +4.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 9 of 9RICE made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 14:02RICE 4th & 3 at RICE 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:02RICE 4th & 3 at RICE 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:50TLSA 4th & 1 at RICE 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    57.5%−0.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:51TLSA 4th & 1 at RICE 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    56.8%−0.6
    88% to make
    Punt
    55.1%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:49RICE 4th & 10 at RICE 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:25RICE 4th & 15 at TLSA 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:59TLSA 4th & 14 at RICE 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    42.4%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:37RICE 4th & 10 at RICE 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:45TLSA 4th & 8 at RICE 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    36.3%−3.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:34RICE 4th & 4 at TLSA 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    58.9%−0.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:03TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:15TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 38, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:28TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:54TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 48, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:17RICE 4th & 1 at TLSA 45, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:54TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 29, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1RICE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:37RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:42RICE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:14TLSA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:33RICE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:47RICE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:23RICE Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:58RICE Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICEDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:4447% → 47%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
53.3%
Juma Otoviano run for 7 yds to the RICE 28Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 3
OWN 28
0
53.3%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Rawson MacNeillSimilar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
53.4%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Landon Ransom-GoelzSimilar
Q1 14:02
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
53.4%
Conor Hunt punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 35Similar
Q1 14:02
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
53.4%
Conor Hunt punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:2954% → 54%
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
50
+1
53.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the RICE 49Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
53.6%
Braylon Braxton pass intercepted by Gabriel TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:3647% → 48%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
53.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 16 yds to the RICE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
52.5%
Dean Connors run for 54 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4DOWNS
15 plays · 65 yds · 5:4153% → 51%
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
52.6%
Rice Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Chris Conti) to the TLSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
52.8%
Cardell Williams run for 4 yds to the TLSA 48Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+8
52.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Devan Williams for 8 yds to the RICE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
52.8%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the RICE 42Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+12
52.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 12 yds to the RICE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
52.8%
Jordan Ford run for 2 yds to the RICE 28Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+6
52.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 6 yds to the RICE 22Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+1
52.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the RICE 21Similar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+2
51.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 2 yds to the RICE 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
52.5%
Braylon Braxton run for 2 yds to the RICE 17Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+6
52.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 6 yds to the RICE 11Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+1
51.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the RICE 10Similar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 1
OPP 10
0
51.2%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Devan WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5849% → 49%
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
50.6%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Elijah MojarroSimilar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
50.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Juma Otoviano for no gain to the RICE 10Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
50.6%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Dean ConnorsSimilar
Q1 5:49
4TH & 10
OWN 10
0
50.8%
Conor Hunt punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TLSA 39 , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for no gain to the TLSA 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:0551% → 50%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
50.5%
Jordan Ford run for 2 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+10
50.6%
Braylon Braxton run for 10 yds to the RICE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
51.1%
Jordan Ford run for 1 yd to the RICE 48Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+1
50.8%
Jordan Ford run for 1 yd to the RICE 47Similar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
50.3%
Braylon Braxton sacked by Jonathan Jean for 0 yards to the RICE 47 Braylon Braxton fumbled, recovered by RICE De'Braylon Carroll , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7TD
2 plays · 53 yds · 0:4252% → 57%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+32
48.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Matt Sykes for 32 yds to the TLSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
43.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 21 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:3744% → 44%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
44.0%
Cardell Williams run for 4 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
43.7%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Carl Chester for 14 yds to the TLSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
44.4%
Cardell Williams sacked by Josh Pearcy for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 43 Cardell Williams fumbled, recovered by RICE Myron Morrison , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2258% → 58%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
42.4%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Luke McCaffreySimilar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
42.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 4 yds to the TLSA 39Similar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 6
OPP 39
-9
41.9%
JT Daniels sacked by Owen Ostroski for a loss of 9 yards to the TLSA 48Similar
Q1 0:25
4TH & 15
OPP 48
0
42.2%
Conor Hunt punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 58 yds · 5:0142% → 38%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
41.9%
Bill Jackson run for 6 yds to the TLSA 10Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+3
42.3%
Bill Jackson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 13Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+7
41.7%
Bill Jackson run for 7 yds to the TLSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
41.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 21Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+22
40.8%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Devan Williams for 22 yds to the TLSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
41.8%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Anthony Watkins for 5 yds to the TLSA 48Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+4
41.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 4 yds to the RICE 48Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+14
40.3%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Carl Chester for 14 yds to the RICE 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
40.7%
Bill Jackson run for 5 yds to the RICE 29Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
39.7%
Cardell Williams run for no gain to the RICE 29Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 5
OPP 29
-9
39.2%
Cardell Williams sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the RICE 38Similar
Q2 9:59
4TH & 14
OPP 38
0
37.6%
Angus Davies punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:1363% → 64%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
36.6%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the RICE 5Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 9
OWN 5
0
36.3%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Dean ConnorsSimilar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 9
OWN 5
+12
36.6%
Dean Connors run for 12 yds to the RICE 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
35.2%
Luke McCaffrey run for no gain to the RICE 17Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
35.3%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Luke McCaffreySimilar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
35.7%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Rawson MacNeillSimilar
Q2 7:37
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
36.0%
Conor Hunt punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the RICE 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12FG
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:4237% → 39%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
36.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 19 yds to the RICE 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
37.1%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Braylon BraxtonSimilar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
36.8%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Jordan Ford for 5 yds to the RICE 34Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 15
OPP 34
+7
35.2%
Cardell Williams run for 7 yds to the RICE 27Similar
Q2 5:45
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+45
38.5%
Chase Meyer 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:5462% → 64%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
38.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 8 yds to the RICE 33Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
37.7%
Dean Connors run for 6 yds to the RICE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+24
36.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 24 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
35.3%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Matt SykesSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
35.4%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Matt SykesSimilar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+6
35.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Juma Otoviano for 6 yds to the TLSA 31Similar
Q2 2:34
4TH & 4
OPP 31
0
35.7%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Luke McCaffreySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:0935% → 49%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+40
35.3%
Braylon Braxton run for 40 yds to the RICE 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
38.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 1 yd to the RICE 30Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 11
OPP 30
0
38.4%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Carl ChesterSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+30
48.9%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 30 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 15TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 0:2854% → 69%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
45.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 14 yds to the RICE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
43.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Rawson MacNeill for 12 yds to the TLSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
42.5%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Rawson MacNeillSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+11
42.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 11 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+20
41.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 20 yds to the TLSA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
31.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 17 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:2434% → 33%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
33.8%
Anthony Watkins run for 8 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
34.6%
Anthony Watkins run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line Tulsa Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chester Baah) to the TLSA 28Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
33.7%
Braylon Braxton run for no gain to the TLSA 28Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
34.0%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Devan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
33.3%
Angus Davies punt for 49 yds , Sean Fresch returns for no gain to the RICE 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
32.1%
Kneel down by Rice at Rice21 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3535% → 33%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
35.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the TLSA 37Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
35.2%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+1
34.1%
Braylon Braxton run for 1 yd to the TLSA 38Similar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+20
33.1%
Angus Davies punt for 57 yds , Sean Fresch returns for 20 yds to the RICE 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 19TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 3:2166% → 86%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
33.8%
Juma Otoviano run for 8 yds to the RICE 33Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
32.6%
Juma Otoviano run for 1 yd to the RICE 34Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+41
32.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Jack Bradley for 41 yds to the TLSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
30.3%
Luke McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the TLSA 30Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+22
29.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Rawson MacNeill for 22 yds to the TLSA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
14.3%
JT Daniels run for 8 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0718% → 17%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
18.3%
Cardell Williams run for 5 yds to the TLSA 30Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
18.7%
Cardell Williams run for 1 yd to the TLSA 29Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
17.6%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
17.3%
Angus Davies punt for 62 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 21TD
15 plays · 91 yds · 7:5585% → 99%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
15.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 5 yds to the RICE 14Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+2
14.2%
Juma Otoviano run for 2 yds to the RICE 16Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+18
14.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 18 yds to the RICE 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
12.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 6 yds to the RICE 40Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
11.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for no gain to the RICE 40Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+11
10.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Rawson MacNeill for 11 yds to the TLSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
9.8%
Ari Broussard run for 2 yds to the RICE 49Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 12
OWN 49
0
8.2%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Luke McCaffreySimilar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+29
8.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 29 yds to the TLSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
7.2%
Juma Otoviano run for 14 yds to the TLSA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
6.4%
Juma Otoviano run for 3 yds to the TLSA 5Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
5.7%
Ari Broussard run for 3 yds to the TLSA 2Similar
Q3 0:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.1%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22PUNT
12 plays · 23 yds · 2:060% → 0%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.4%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the TLSA 27Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
0.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Devan Williams for 11 yds to the TLSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
0.4%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the TLSA 40Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
0.4%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Devan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-10
0.4%
Tulsa Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TLSA 32Similar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 16
OWN 32
-5
0.4%
PENALTY TLS False Start 5 yards from TLS32 to TLS27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 21
OWN 27
+21
0.4%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Braylin Presley for 21 yds to the TLSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
0.3%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Jordan FordSimilar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
0.3%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Jordan FordSimilar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
0.3%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Devan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
0.3%
Angus Davies punt for 45 yds , Sean Fresch returns for no gain to the RICE 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 23TD
15 plays · 96 yds · 9:4899% → 100%
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
1.0%
Juma Otoviano run for 1 yd to the RICE 3Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 11
OWN 3
+7
0.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 7 yds to the RICE 10Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 4
OWN 10
+9
0.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 9 yds to the RICE 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
0.7%
Juma Otoviano run for 9 yds to the RICE 28Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+3
0.6%
Ari Broussard run for 3 yds to the RICE 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
0.6%
Luke McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the RICE 33Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+13
0.5%
Ari Broussard run for 13 yds to the RICE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
0.4%
Kobie Campbell run for 1 yd to the RICE 45Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+9
0.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 9 yds to the TLSA 46Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+1
0.3%
Juma Otoviano run for 1 yd to the TLSA 45Similar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+23
0.3%
Dean Connors run for 23 yds to the TLSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
0.2%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the TLSA 19Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+9
0.2%
Dean Connors run for 9 yds to the TLSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
0.1%
Dean Connors run for 10 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:540% → 0%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.1%
Bill Jackson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 22Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+1
0.1%
Bill Jackson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 23Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+6
0.0%
Braylon Braxton run for 6 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
0.0%
Angus Davies punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Sean Fresch at the RICE 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:43100% → 100%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
0.1%
Kneel down by Rice at Rice25 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 25
-2
0.1%
Kneel down by Rice at Rice23 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:47
JT Daniels run for 8 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
-15.3
TD · Q2 0:33
JT Daniels pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 17 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
-10.7
TD · Q2 1:14
Cardell Williams pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 30 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
+10.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com