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TLSA

Tulsa 17 at Florida Atlantic 20

FAU
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:35 · Angus Davies punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TLSA 29 , LaJohntay Wester returns for 32 yds to the TLSA 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 79Home team on offense+4.5Pregame prior+7.1Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential+1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:11: Larry McCammon run for 10 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK) — FAU win probability +5.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:07: Cardell Williams run for 7 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK) — TLSA win probability +6.4 pts (now 35%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 7:09: Chase Meyer 36 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +3.7 pts (now 28%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:01: Braylon Braxton pass complete to Luke McGary for 20 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK) — TLSA win probability +27.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:05: Kneel down by Fla. Atlantic at Tulsa44 for loss of 3 yards. — FAU win probability +16.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9TLSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 5:15TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.3%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:31TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:37FAU 4th & 12 at FAU 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:07FAU 4th & 1 at TLSA 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    65.4%−1.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:35TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:58FAU 4th & 3 at TLSA 3, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.5%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    63.3%−6.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:47FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:38FAU 4th & 8 at FAU 11, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−2.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:09TLSA 4th & 9 at FAU 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    13.7%−8.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:49FAU 4th & 4 at TLSA 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    76.5%−1.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−2.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:52TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:44FAU 4th & 7 at TLSA 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    73.4%−10.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:29TLSA 4th & 11 at TLSA 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:56FAU 4th & 5 at TLSA 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    84.2%−4.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:56TLSA 4th & 2 at FAU 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    11.7%−1.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−6.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:30FAU 4th & 12 at FAU 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−9.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:33TLSA 4th & 12 at TLSA 4, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.1%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:05TLSA 4th & 8 at FAU 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.3%−5.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:02FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:11FAU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:07TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:01TLSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.8%−2.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1INT
11 plays · 51 yds · 2:5737% → 38%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
62.8%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 24Similar
Q1 14:51
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+26
62.8%
Cardell Williams run for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
50
0
62.8%
Cardell Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:51
2ND & 10
50
+9
62.8%
Anthony Watkins run for 9 yds to the FAU 41Similar
Q1 14:51
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+3
62.8%
Tahj Gary run for 3 yds to the FAU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
62.8%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Devan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+9
62.8%
Tahj Gary run for 9 yds to the FAU 29Similar
Q1 14:51
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+3
62.8%
Tahj Gary run for 3 yds to the FAU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
62.8%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Luke McGarySimilar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
62.3%
Cardell Williams pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 3:5263% → 66%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
62.7%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to LaJohntay WesterSimilar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
62.7%
Larry McCammon run for 9 yds to the FAU 24Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+18
62.6%
Daniel Richardson run for 18 yds to the FAU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
62.9%
Larry McCammon run for 2 yds to the FAU 44Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+2
62.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 2 yds to the FAU 42Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+40
62.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 40 yds to the TLSA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
63.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kahlil Brantley for 14 yds to the TLSA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
63.2%
Larry McCammon run for 3 yds to the TLSA 1Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
63.2%
Larry McCammon run for no gain to the TLSA 1Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.6%
Larry McCammon run for 1 yd for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:4735% → 35%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
64.9%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 8 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
64.5%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Braylin Presley for 5 yds to the TLSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
64.6%
Jordan Ford run for 3 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
64.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 5 yds to the TLSA 46Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
64.4%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 47Similar
Q1 5:15
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+6
65.3%
Ben Kopenski run for 6 yds to the TLSA 41 Ben Kopenski fumbled, recovered by TLSA Ben KopenskiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:0467% → 72%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
66.7%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Larry McCammonSimilar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-5
66.7%
PENALTY FAU False Start (Lamas,Andre) 5 yards from Tulsa41 to Tulsa46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+9
66.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 9 yds to the TLSA 37Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
66.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Richardson,Daniel pass incomplete short right to Johnson,Tony broken up by Carlisle,Tyree PENALTY Tulsa Illegal Substitution declined Tulsa Holding (Carlisle,Tyree) 10 yards from Tulsa37 to Tulsa27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
66.8%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Tony JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+11
66.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 11 yds to the TLSA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
66.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to BJ Alexander for 6 yds to the TLSA 10Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+10
72.2%
Larry McCammon run for 10 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:4030% → 29%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.4%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Devan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
70.5%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Nick Rempert for 8 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-10
70.3%
Shotgun Williams,Cardell pass complete short right to Williams,Devan for 12 yards to the Tulsa45 (Williams,Jayden) PENALTY Tulsa Holding 10 yards from Tulsa33 to Tulsa23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+5
70.7%
Tahj Gary run for 5 yds to the TLSA 28Similar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
71.2%
Angus Davies punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FAU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:5472% → 74%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
72.4%
Larry McCammon run for 14 yds to the FAU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
72.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 4 yds to the FAU 41Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
73.0%
Larry McCammon run for 3 yds to the FAU 44Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+6
73.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Zeke Moore for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+1
74.1%
Larry McCammon run for 1 yd to the TLSA 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+3
74.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 3 yds to the FAU 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 48
0
73.3%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Latrell JeanSimilar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
73.5%
Logan Lupo punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7TD
14 plays · 90 yds · 4:3027% → 35%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
72.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the TLSA 12Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+4
72.8%
Cardell Williams run for 4 yds to the TLSA 16Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+22
72.9%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 22 yds to the TLSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
72.2%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Luke McGarySimilar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
72.3%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+18
72.3%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Braylin Presley for 18 yds to the FAU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
70.8%
Anthony Watkins run for 5 yds to the FAU 39Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
70.5%
Devan Williams run for no gain to the FAU 39Similar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+23
70.9%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Carl Chester for 23 yds to the FAU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
70.0%
Tahj Gary run for 5 yds to the FAU 11Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+4
70.0%
Tahj Gary run for 4 yds to the FAU 7Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+7
65.3%
Cardell Williams run for 7 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8INT
11 plays · 52 yds · 3:5768% → 71%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
67.8%
Kobe Lewis run for 20 yds to the FAU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
69.3%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the FAU 49Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+11
69.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 11 yds to the TLSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
69.6%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to BJ AlexanderSimilar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
69.5%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the TLSA 37Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+6
69.0%
BJ Alexander run for 6 yds to the TLSA 31Similar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+1
68.4%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the TLSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
69.8%
Daniel Richardson run for 5 yds to the TLSA 25Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+2
69.8%
LaJohntay Wester run for 2 yds to the TLSA 23Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 3
OPP 23
0
70.8%
Daniel Richardson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3531% → 29%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
69.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 19Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+1
69.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 20Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
70.3%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Braylin PresleySimilar
Q2 3:35
4TH & 8
OWN 20
+32
71.4%
Angus Davies punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TLSA 29 , LaJohntay Wester returns for 32 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10FG
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:3772% → 75%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
71.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Richardson,Daniel pass incomplete short right to Hester,Jymetre PENALTY Tulsa Holding (Parker,Keuan) 10 yards from Tulsa29 to Tulsa19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
71.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Larry McCammon for 9 yds to the TLSA 10Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+3
71.9%
Larry McCammon run for 3 yds to the TLSA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
71.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 3 yds to the TLSA 4Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
71.9%
Larry McCammon run for 1 yd to the TLSA 3Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
72.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Tony JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
74.7%
Logan Lupo 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:5225% → 24%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
75.3%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Braylin Presley for no gain to the TLSA 22Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
75.7%
Cardell Williams run for 1 yd to the TLSA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1376% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
76.0%
Larry McCammon run for 8 yds to the FAU 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
76.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Je'Quan BurtonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
75.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Larry McCammon for 1 yd to the FAU 32Similar
Q3 13:47
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
75.1%
Logan Lupo punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13INT
3 plays · 23 yds · 1:0224% → 26%
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
76.2%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Braylin Presley for 16 yds to the TLSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
75.4%
Tahj Gary run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 3
50
0
74.5%
Cardell Williams pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0777% → 76%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
77.2%
Larry McCammon run for 3 yds to the FAU 12Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 7
OWN 12
-1
77.2%
Daniel Richardson sacked by Vontroy Malone for a loss of 1 yard to the FAU 11Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 8
OWN 11
0
76.3%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to BJ AlexanderSimilar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 8
OWN 11
0
76.1%
Logan Lupo punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 4:2923% → 28%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
76.6%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+9
77.4%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Devan Williams for 9 yds to the TLSA 42Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+20
76.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 20 yds to the FAU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
75.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the FAU 39Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+19
75.4%
Cardell Williams run for 19 yds to the FAU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-4
73.8%
Cardell Williams sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the FAU 24Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 14
OPP 24
+2
74.8%
Tahj Gary run for 2 yds to the FAU 22Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 12
OPP 22
+3
76.0%
Tahj Gary run for 3 yds to the FAU 19Similar
Q3 7:09
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+36
72.3%
Chase Meyer 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:1477% → 78%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
77.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 9 yds to the FAU 29Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+8
78.4%
Larry McCammon run for 8 yds to the FAU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
78.3%
Larry McCammon run for 4 yds to the FAU 41Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+18
79.3%
Larry McCammon run for 18 yds to the TLSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
79.7%
Larry McCammon run for no gain to the TLSA 41Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+6
79.6%
Larry McCammon run for 6 yds to the TLSA 35Similar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
79.0%
Larry McCammon run for no gain to the TLSA 35Similar
Q3 3:49
4TH & 4
OPP 35
0
78.2%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to LaJohntay WesterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5726% → 24%
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
73.9%
Tahj Gary run for 1 yd to the TLSA 34Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-15
74.6%
Shotgun Williams,Cardell pass complete short right to Jones,Malachai for 7 yards to the Tulsa41 (Morris,Jarron; Mungin,Romain) PENALTY Tulsa UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Baah,Chester) 15 yards from Tulsa34 to Tulsa19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 26
OWN 19
+13
75.2%
Tahj Gary run for 13 yds to the TLSA 32Similar
Q3 3:49
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+6
76.1%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Ethan Hall for 6 yds to the TLSA 38Similar
Q3 1:52
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+4
76.4%
Angus Davies punt for 58 yds , LaJohntay Wester returns for 4 yds to the FAU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18FG
8 plays · 83 yds · 4:0879% → 86%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+58
79.3%
Kobe Lewis run for 58 yds to the TLSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
82.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the TLSA 33Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+2
85.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Larry McCammon for 2 yds to the TLSA 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+19
84.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 19 yds to the TLSA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-4
85.8%
Daniel Richardson sacked by Ben Kopenski for a loss of 4 yards to the TLSA 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 16
+2
85.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Tony Johnson for 2 yds to the TLSA 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 14
+5
84.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Larry McCammon for 5 yds to the TLSA 9Similar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+27
85.7%
Logan Lupo 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1515% → 13%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.2%
Cardell Williams run for 3 yds to the TLSA 22Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+2
85.6%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the TLSA 24Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
86.3%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q4 11:29
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
87.4%
Angus Davies punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FAU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20MISSED FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 3:3387% → 90%
Q4 11:29
1ST & 11
OWN 44
0
87.4%
Larry McCammon run for no gain to the FAU 44Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+6
87.2%
Larry McCammon run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 5
50
+25
86.7%
Larry McCammon run for 25 yds to the TLSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
87.8%
Larry McCammon run for no gain to the TLSA 25Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
87.8%
LaJohntay Wester run for 2 yds to the TLSA 23Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+3
87.1%
Larry McCammon run for 3 yds to the TLSA 20Similar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
89.7%
Logan Lupo 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:5511% → 40%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
89.4%
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds to the TLSA 23Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+46
89.5%
Braylon Braxton run for 46 yds to the FAU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
85.5%
Braylon Braxton run for 5 yds to the FAU 26Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+2
85.1%
Braylon Braxton run for 2 yds to the FAU 24Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+1
86.4%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the FAU 23Similar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+3
87.4%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the FAU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
59.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Luke McGary for 20 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2875% → 76%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
75.1%
Larry McCammon run for 1 yd to the FAU 26Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
74.8%
Larry McCammon run for 1 yd to the FAU 27Similar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-4
73.0%
Daniel Richardson sacked by Ben Kopenski for a loss of 4 yards to the FAU 23Similar
Q4 3:30
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
76.3%
Logan Lupo punt for 71 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23DOWNS
13 plays · 35 yds · 2:2529% → 23%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
70.9%
Anthony Watkins run for no gain to the TLSA 6Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 6
-3
71.3%
PENALTY Tulsa False Start (Williams,Devan) 3 yards from Tulsa06 to Tulsa03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 13
OWN 3
+1
71.3%
Braylon Braxton run for 1 yd to the TLSA 4Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 12
OWN 4
0
78.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Devan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 12
OWN 4
+16
79.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 16 yds to the TLSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
75.4%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Devan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
75.7%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Braylin PresleySimilar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+31
77.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Malachai Jones for 31 yds to the FAU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
68.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 2 yds to the FAU 47Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
69.0%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
70.9%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Nick RempertSimilar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 8
OPP 47
-12
76.8%
Braylon Braxton sacked by Jackson Ambush for a loss of 12 yards to the TLSA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:0593% → 96%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
92.8%
Kneel down by Fla. Atlantic at Tulsa44 for loss of 3 yards.Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 13
OPP 44
-2
92.3%
Kneel down by Fla. Atlantic at Tulsa46 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 46
-2
95.7%
Kneel down by Fla. Atlantic at Tulsa48 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:01
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Luke McGary for 20 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
-27.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:05
Kneel down by Fla. Atlantic at Tulsa44 for loss of 3 yards.
+16
TD · Q2 9:07
Cardell Williams run for 7 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
-6.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com