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UAPB

Arkansas-Pine Bluff 7 at Tulsa 42

TLSA
2023 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2023 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadUAPB aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreUAPB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:54 · Angus Davies punt for 45 yds , Jewel Fletcher returns for 3 yds to the UAPB 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 142Pregame prior+20.2Home team on offense+34.9Score differential+26.8Garbage-time factor+11.6Blowout margin+11.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:21: Cardell Williams 3 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick) — TLSA win probability +0.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:18: Marquis Shoulders 80 Yd pass from Cardell Williams (Chase Meyer Kick) — TLSA win probability +1.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:36: Malachai Jones 15 Yd pass from Cardell Williams (Chase Meyer Kick) — TLSA win probability +1.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:13: Marquis Shoulders 19 Yd pass from Cardell Williams (Chase Meyer Kick) — TLSA win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:16: Jordan Ford 1 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick) — TLSA win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UAPB made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 6:19UAPB 4th & 23 at UAPB 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:19UAPB 4th & 23 at UAPB 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:24TLSA 4th & 19 at UAPB 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:10UAPB 4th & 9 at UAPB 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:25UAPB 4th & 9 at TLSA 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:01UAPB 4th & 12 at UAPB 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:36UAPB 4th & 20 at UAPB 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00UAPB 4th & 16 at TLSA 41, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    1.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:28UAPB 4th & 3 at UAPB 36, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:09TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 34, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:39UAPB 4th & 13 at TLSA 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:53UAPB 4th & 2 at UAPB 44, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:54TLSA 4th & 12 at TLSA 46, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:23UAPB 4th & 10 at UAPB 49, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:43UAPB 4th & 1 at UAPB 34, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UAPB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:27UAPB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:21TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:18TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:36TLSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:13TLSA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:16TLSA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:07TLSA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:4399% → 99%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.9%
Jordan Ford run for 3 yds to the TLSA 28Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
98.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Devan Williams for 9 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.9%
Braylon Braxton pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 2TD
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:321% → 1%
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
98.9%
Michael Jamerson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 16Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+2
98.8%
Mekhi Hagens run for 2 yds to the TLSA 14Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+13
98.7%
Mekhi Hagens pass complete to Kenji Lewis for 13 yds to the TLSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.7%
Michael Jamerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Dean Sarris KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 3INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:572% → 2%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
50
+2
98.5%
Michael Jamerson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 48Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
98.5%
Michael Jamerson run for no gain to the TLSA 48Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+9
98.5%
Mekhi Hagens pass complete to Maurice Lloyd for 9 yds to the TLSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
98.4%
Mekhi Hagens pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4INT
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:0598% → 98%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
98.4%
Braylon Braxton run for 7 yds to the TLSA 37Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+2
98.4%
Braylon Braxton run for 2 yds to the TLSA 39Similar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
98.4%
Bill Jackson run for 4 yds to the UAPB 42Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
98.4%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Braylin PresleySimilar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
98.3%
Braylon Braxton pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 2:462% → 2%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
98.2%
Mekhi Hagens pass complete to Kenji Lewis for 4 yds to the UAPB 44Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
98.2%
Michael Jamerson run for no gain to the UAPB 44Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+11
98.1%
Mekhi Hagens run for 11 yds to the TLSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
98.0%
Michael Jamerson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 46Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
97.9%
Mekhi Hagens pass incomplete to Daemon DawkinsSimilar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 11
OPP 46
-12
97.9%
Mekhi Hagens sacked by Owen Ostroski for a loss of 12 yards to the UAPB 42Similar
Q1 6:19
4TH & 23
OWN 42
+17
97.8%
Jeremy Baker punt for 40 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 17 yds to the TLSA 35Similar
Q1 6:19
4TH & 23
OWN 42
+17
97.8%
Jeremy Baker punt for 40 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 17 yds to the TLSA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
13 plays · 50 yds · 4:4898% → 97%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
97.8%
Jordan Ford run for 9 yds to the TLSA 18Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+3
97.7%
Jordan Ford run for 3 yds to the TLSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
97.6%
Jordan Ford run for 12 yds to the TLSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
97.5%
Cardell Williams sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the TLSA 28Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+25
97.4%
Bill Jackson run for 25 yds to the UAPB 47 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TLSA for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
97.5%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Luke Mcgary for 3 yds to the UAPB 44Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+6
97.4%
Cardell Williams run for 6 yds to the UAPB 38Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+6
97.4%
Jordan Ford run for 6 yds to the UAPB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
97.4%
Jordan Ford run for 2 yds to the UAPB 30Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 8
OPP 30
-9
97.2%
Cardell Williams sacked by Anas Luqman for a loss of 9 yards to the UAPB 39Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 17
OPP 39
+2
96.9%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Jordan Ford for 2 yds to the UAPB 41Similar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 19
OPP 41
0
96.7%
Angus Davies punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 3:063% → 4%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+13
96.7%
Johness Davis run for 13 yds to the UAPB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
96.5%
Johness Davis run for no gain to the UAPB 18Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+12
96.3%
Mekhi Hagens pass complete to Johness Davis for 12 yds to the UAPB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
96.2%
Mekhi Hagens pass complete to Laprel Boyd for no gain to the UAPB 30Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
96.0%
Michael Jamerson run for 2 yds to the UAPB 28Similar
Q2 13:43
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+3
95.9%
Mekhi Hagens run for 3 yds to the UAPB 31Similar
Q2 13:10
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
95.8%
Jeremy Baker punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:4196% → 97%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
50
+22
96.0%
Jordan Ford run for 22 yds to the UAPB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
96.0%
Jordan Ford run for 3 yds to the UAPB 25Similar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
95.9%
Cardell Williams run for 6 yds to the UAPB 19Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 16
OPP 19
+6
95.9%
Jordan Ford run for 6 yds to the UAPB 13Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+12
95.8%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Devan Williams for 12 yds to the UAPB 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+2
96.0%
Jordan Ford run for 2 yds to the UAPB 3Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.5%
Cardell Williams 3 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 1:444% → 5%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
95.8%
Mekhi Hagens pass complete to Maurice Lloyd for 21 yds to the UAPB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
95.3%
Mekhi Hagens pass incomplete to Daemon DawkinsSimilar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+14
95.4%
Mekhi Hagens pass complete to Daemon Dawkins for 14 yds to the TLSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
95.0%
Michael Jamerson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 39Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
94.9%
Mekhi Hagens pass incomplete to Daemon DawkinsSimilar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
94.9%
Mekhi Hagens pass incomplete to Maurice LloydSimilar
Q2 8:25
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
95.2%
Jeremy Baker punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10TD
3 plays · 92 yds · 1:0196% → 97%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
95.6%
Tahj Gary run for 9 yds to the TLSA 17Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 1
OWN 17
+3
95.5%
Tahj Gary run for 3 yds to the TLSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
96.7%
Marquis Shoulders 80 Yd pass from Cardell Williams (Chase Meyer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:593% → 4%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
96.6%
Mekhi Hagens run for 11 yds to the UAPB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
96.4%
Mekhi Hagens run for 4 yds to the UAPB 30Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+2
96.4%
Michael Jamerson run for 2 yds to the UAPB 32Similar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 12
OWN 32
0
96.4%
Mekhi Hagens pass incomplete to Maurice LloydSimilar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 12
OWN 32
+19
96.5%
Jeremy Baker punt for 44 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 19 yds to the TLSA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 1:1997% → 98%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
96.6%
Jordan Ford run for 1 yd to the TLSA 44Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+24
96.5%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Luke Mcgary for 24 yds to the UAPB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
96.6%
Jordan Ford run for 6 yds to the UAPB 26Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+11
96.5%
Jordan Ford run for 11 yds to the UAPB 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
97.7%
Malachai Jones 15 Yd pass from Cardell Williams (Chase Meyer Kick)Similar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
97.6%
PENALTY TLS UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from TLS35 to TLS20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:473% → 3%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
97.3%
Johness Davis run for 10 yds to the UAPB 22Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 20
OWN 22
0
97.4%
Mekhi Hagens pass incomplete to Maurice LloydSimilar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 20
OWN 22
0
97.4%
Mekhi Hagens pass incomplete to Tristan BallardSimilar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 20
OWN 22
+16
97.4%
Jeremy Baker punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UAPB 44 , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 16 yds to the UAPB 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:1598% → 99%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
97.6%
Bill Jackson run for 8 yds to the UAPB 36Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+14
97.7%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Marquis Shoulders for 14 yds to the UAPB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
97.7%
Bill Jackson run for 1 yd to the UAPB 23Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+4
97.6%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Ethan Hall for 4 yds to the UAPB 19Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+19
99.1%
Marquis Shoulders 19 Yd pass from Cardell Williams (Chase Meyer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 1:051% → 1%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
98.8%
Johness Davis run for 20 yds to the UAPB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
98.7%
Mekhi Hagens pass complete to Donald Johnson III for 7 yds to the TLSA 48Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+13
98.6%
Johness Davis run for 13 yds to the TLSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
98.5%
Mekhi Hagens pass incomplete to Kenji LewisSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
98.5%
Johness Davis run for 2 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 8
OPP 33
-8
99.1%
Mekhi Hagens sacked by Ben Kopenski for a loss of 8 yards to the TLSA 41Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 16
OPP 41
0
99.3%
Mekhi Hagens pass incomplete to Kenji LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:211% → 1%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
98.7%
Johness Davis run for 5 yds to the UAPB 23Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+6
98.7%
Mekhi Hagens pass complete to Maurice Lloyd for 6 yds to the UAPB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
98.7%
Johness Davis run for 4 yds to the UAPB 33Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
98.6%
Mekhi Hagens pass incomplete to Maurice LloydSimilar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+3
98.7%
Mekhi Hagens run for 3 yds to the UAPB 36Similar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
98.7%
Jeremy Baker punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1299% → 99%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
98.9%
Jordan Ford run for 2 yds to the TLSA 31Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+2
98.9%
Jordan Ford run for 2 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
98.8%
Tulsa Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:09
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
98.8%
Angus Davies punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Jewel Fletcher at the UAPB 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 48 yds · 4:211% → 1%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+23
98.8%
Mekhi Hagens pass complete to Kenji Lewis for 23 yds to the UAPB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
98.7%
Johness Davis run for 11 yds to the UAPB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
98.7%
Johness Davis run for 3 yds to the UAPB 49Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-7
98.7%
Mekhi Hagens sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the UAPB 42Similar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 14
OWN 42
+21
98.8%
Jalen Macon pass complete to Kenji Lewis for 21 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
98.8%
Jalen Macon pass complete to Kenji Lewis for 3 yds to the TLSA 34Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
98.6%
Jalen Macon run for no gain to the TLSA 34Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 12
OPP 39
-1
98.8%
Jalen Macon sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 40Similar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 13
OPP 40
0
98.8%
Jeremy Baker punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 3:1499% → 100%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
98.8%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 13Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+4
98.8%
Bill Jackson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 17Similar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+11
98.8%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Marquis Shoulders for 11 yds to the TLSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
98.9%
Jordan Ford run for 9 yds to the TLSA 37Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+2
98.9%
Cardell Williams run for 2 yds to the TLSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+40
98.7%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Devan Williams for 40 yds to the UAPB 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+18
98.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 18 yds to the UAPB 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.1%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the UAPB 1Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Jordan Ford 1 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:140% → 0%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.9%
Johness Davis run for 11 yds to the UAPB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Johness Davis run for no gain to the UAPB 36Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.9%
Johness Davis run for 2 yds to the UAPB 38Similar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+6
99.9%
Jalen Macon run for 6 yds to the UAPB 44Similar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Jeremy Baker punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:51100% → 100%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
99.9%
Bill Jackson run for 5 yds to the TLSA 21Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+9
99.9%
Bill Jackson run for 9 yds to the TLSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
99.9%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Marquis Shoulders for 8 yds to the TLSA 38Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+10
99.9%
Braylin Presley run for 10 yds to the TLSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
99.9%
Braylin Presley run for 3 yds to the UAPB 49Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Braylin Presley run for no gain to the UAPB 49Similar
Q4 13:07
4TH & 7
OPP 49
-5
99.9%
PENALTY TLS Illegal Substitution 5 yards from UAPB49 to TLS46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 12
OWN 46
+3
99.9%
Angus Davies punt for 45 yds , Jewel Fletcher returns for 3 yds to the UAPB 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 37 yds · 5:220% → 0%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
100.0%
Johness Davis run for 7 yds to the UAPB 19Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+3
100.0%
Jalen Macon pass complete to Johness Davis for 3 yds to the UAPB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
100.0%
Johness Davis run for 4 yds to the UAPB 18Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+15
100.0%
(10:55) No Huddle-Shotgun Lloyd,Maurice pass incomplete deep right to Williams,Javaughn PENALTY TLS Pass Interference (Ellis,Reggie) 15 yards from UAPB18 to UAPB33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+9
100.0%
Jalen Macon pass complete to Kevin English for 9 yds to the UAPB 37Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+5
100.0%
Jalen Macon pass complete to Johness Davis for 5 yds to the UAPB 42Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+7
100.0%
Johness Davis run for 7 yds to the UAPB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
100.0%
Johness Davis run for 2 yds to the UAPB 47Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+4
100.0%
Jalen Macon run for 4 yds to the TLSA 49Similar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+2
100.0%
Michael Jamerson run for 2 yds to the UAPB 49Similar
Q4 7:23
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
100.0%
Jeremy Baker punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 4:10100% → 100%
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
99.9%
Jordan Ford run for 8 yds to the TLSA 27Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+10
99.9%
Jordan Ford run for 10 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+27
99.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 27 yds to the UAPB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
100.0%
Roman Fuller pass complete to Bill Jackson for 8 yds to the UAPB 28Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+13
100.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 13 yds to the UAPB 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
100.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 10 yds to the UAPB 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
100.0%
Anthony Watkins run for no gain to the UAPB 5Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
100.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the UAPB 7Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
100.0%
Bayne Tryon 7 Yd pass from Roman Fuller (Chase Meyer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:140% → 0%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
BJ Curry run for 4 yds to the UAPB 29Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
100.0%
BJ Curry run for 1 yd to the UAPB 28Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
100.0%
BJ Curry run for 6 yds to the UAPB 34Similar
Q4 0:43
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Jeremy Baker punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
100.0%
Cam Crooks run for 2 yds to the TLSA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:13
Marquis Shoulders 19 Yd pass from Cardell Williams (Chase Meyer Kick)
+1.4
TD · Q2 7:18
Marquis Shoulders 80 Yd pass from Cardell Williams (Chase Meyer Kick)
+1.2
TD · Q2 3:36
Malachai Jones 15 Yd pass from Cardell Williams (Chase Meyer Kick)
+1.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com