Try the model
TOL

Toledo 41 at Massachusetts 24

MASS
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of GameTD-8.4MASS 14.2%Peny Boone run for 49 yds for a TD(Luke Pawlak KICK)AWAY 31 - HOME 21 · Q3 10:11
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:11 · Peny Boone run for 49 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 105Pregame prior−23.8Home team on offense−13.7Score differential−6.2Garbage-time factor−3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:02: Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to George Johnson III for 31 yds for a TD (Cameron Carson KICK) — MASS win probability +10.9 pts (now 32%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:53: Dequan Finn run for 56 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK) — TOL win probability +11.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:11: Peny Boone run for 49 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK) — TOL win probability +8.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 5:23: Cameron Carson 49 yd FG GOOD — MASS win probability +5.5 pts (now 21%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:48: Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 20 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK) — TOL win probability +8.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 4 of 7TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:34TOL 4th & 7 at MASS 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    83.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:13MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:07MASS 4th & 8 at TOL 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:50TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:20MASS 4th & 6 at TOL 39, up 4
    Close callPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    34.1%−0.4
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:40TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 9, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−0.6
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00MASS 4th & 1 at TOL 41, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.0%−3.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:18MASS 4th & 24 at MASS 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−4.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:11TOL 4th & 1 at MASS 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.2%−2.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:23MASS 4th & 4 at TOL 32, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.1%−0.9
    51% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:08TOL 4th & 4 at MASS 18, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.2%−0.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−4.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:19MASS 4th & 7 at TOL 17, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:56MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:37TOL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:43TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:26MASS Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:02MASS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:53TOL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:11TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:48TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MASSDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:049% → 11%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
8.8%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 1 yd to the MASS 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
8.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Adams,Kay'Ron rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UMass28 (Culpepper,Judge) PENALTY UMass Holding (Atwood,Josh) 10 yards from UMass24 to UMass14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+5
8.8%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Mark Pope for 5 yds to the MASS 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+32
8.8%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 32 yds to the TOL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
8.8%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 2 yds to the TOL 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
8.8%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Mark Pope for no gain to the TOL 47Similar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+47
10.5%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 47 yds for a TD (Cameron Carson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:2290% → 88%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.4%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the TOL 25Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
10.4%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the TOL 30Similar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+27
10.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 27 yds to the MASS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+20
10.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for 20 yds to the MASS 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
10.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for no gain to the MASS 23Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
10.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the MASS 20Similar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
10.3%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jacquez StuartSimilar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+38
11.8%
Luke Pawlak 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2112% → 12%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.7%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for no gain to the MASS 25Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
11.7%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 4 yds to the MASS 29Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
11.6%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to Christian WellsSimilar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
12.3%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Junior Vandeross III at the TOL 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:3688% → 87%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
12.5%
Peny Boone run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
50
+5
12.3%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the MASS 45Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-5
12.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass incomplete deep right to Dottin,Jaden PENALTY UMass Offside 5 yards from UMass45 to UMass40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
12.3%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the MASS 37Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+4
12.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 4 yds to the MASS 33Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 3
OPP 33
-5
12.2%
PENALTY Toledo False Start (Rogers,Devan) 5 yards from UMass33 to UMass38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+9
12.3%
Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the MASS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
12.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan rush left for 5 yards gain to the UMass24, out of bounds at UMass24 PENALTY Toledo Holding (Rosi,Nick) 10 yards from UMass29 to UMass39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 20
OPP 39
+18
12.4%
Dequan Finn run for 18 yds to the MASS 21Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+21
12.7%
Peny Boone run for 21 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5PUNT
14 plays · 45 yds · 6:2613% → 16%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
13.1%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 9 yds to the MASS 17Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 1
OWN 17
0
13.2%
Taisun Phommachanh run for no gain to the MASS 17Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+4
12.9%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 4 yds to the MASS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
13.2%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to George Johnson IIISimilar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
13.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Phommachanh,Taisun pass complete short left to Johnson,George for 45 yards to the Toledo34 (Ford,Zachary), out of bounds PENALTY UMass Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Garcia,Cole) 5 yards from UMass21 to UMass16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+24
13.1%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 24 yds to the MASS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
15.5%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 5 yds to the MASS 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-6
15.6%
Taisun Phommachanh sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the MASS 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+12
14.7%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 12 yds to the TOL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
15.7%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 2 yds to the MASS 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 49
0
15.1%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to Anthony SimpsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+4
14.8%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 4 yds to the TOL 47Similar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
16.1%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:2484% → 87%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
16.0%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the TOL 21Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+9
16.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to CC Ezirim for 9 yds to the TOL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
15.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 1 yd to the TOL 31Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
15.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Peny BooneSimilar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+28
17.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 28 yds to the MASS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
16.0%
Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the MASS 32Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+29
15.7%
Junior Vandeross III run for 29 yds to the MASS 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+5
15.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the MASS 8Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
15.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jaden DottinSimilar
Q2 8:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
13.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 8 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7TD
2 plays · 71 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
18.8%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 71 yds for a TD (Cameron Carson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:2883% → 81%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
17.5%
Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the TOL 39Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+7
17.5%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the TOL 46Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 2
OWN 46
-10
17.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Boone,Peny rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Toledo49 (Roberts,Jerry) PENALTY Toledo Holding (Rogers,Devan) 10 yards from Toledo46 to Toledo36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+7
18.5%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the TOL 43Similar
Q2 5:50
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
19.1%
Emilio Duran punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 2:4820% → 32%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
19.5%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 13 yds to the MASS 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
19.8%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd to the MASS 32Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+17
19.8%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 17 yds to the MASS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
21.2%
Anthony Simpson run for 3 yds to the TOL 48Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+17
21.5%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 17 yds to the TOL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
32.4%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to George Johnson III for 31 yds for a TD (Cameron Carson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.2%
Dequan Finn pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3432% → 32%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
31.6%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 2 yds to the TOL 45Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+6
30.7%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 6 yds to the TOL 39Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
31.2%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
31.6%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:4068% → 66%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
32.2%
Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the TOL 2Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+8
32.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 8 yds to the TOL 10Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+1
32.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 1 yd to the TOL 9Similar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 2
OWN 9
0
34.0%
Emilio Duran punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Isaac Ross at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 13MISSED FG
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:4034% → 33%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
50
0
34.4%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to Christian WellsSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
50
+5
33.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Phommachanh,Taisun pass incomplete deep right to Campiotti,Gino PENALTY Toledo Offside (Holt,Deshawn) 5 yards from Toledo50 to Toledo45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
34.4%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Christian Wells for 4 yds to the TOL 41Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
33.6%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to Christian WellsSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+58
33.2%
Cameron Carson 58 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:0770% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
30.5%
Peny Boone run for 7 yds to the TOL 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-15
28.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass incomplete deep middle to Newton,Jerjuan PENALTY Toledo Chop Block (Boone,Peny) 15 yards from Toledo42 to Toledo27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 27
+17
31.6%
Dequan Finn run for 17 yds to the TOL 44Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+56
20.6%
Dequan Finn run for 56 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 2:3023% → 22%
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
22.8%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Mark Pope for no gain to the MASS 21Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+14
22.7%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to George Johnson III for 14 yds to the MASS 35 for a 1ST down Toledo Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jacquez Stuart) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
23.2%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd to the MASS 36Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 27
OWN 18
+3
21.7%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 3 yds to the MASS 21Similar
Q3 11:18
4TH & 24
OWN 21
0
22.4%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 37 yds , Adam Beale returns for no gain to the TOL 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 1:0778% → 86%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
22.1%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the TOL 46Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
22.1%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jaden DottinSimilar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 6
OWN 46
-5
22.4%
PENALTY Toledo False Start (Rogers,Devan) 5 yards from Toledo46 to Toledo41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+10
23.7%
Dequan Finn run for 10 yds to the MASS 49Similar
Q3 10:11
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+49
14.2%
Peny Boone run for 49 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 4:4814% → 21%
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
14.1%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 6 yds to the MASS 31Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
14.6%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams for 9 yds to the MASS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
15.1%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for no gain to the MASS 40Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+22
14.8%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 22 yds to the TOL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
16.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Phommachanh,Taisun pass complete deep right to Johnson,George for 0 yards to the Toledo38 PENALTY UMass Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Atwood,Josh) 5 yards from Toledo38 to Toledo43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+2
15.5%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 2 yds to the TOL 45Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 17
OPP 45
+6
15.3%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Isaac Ross for 6 yds to the TOL 39Similar
Q3 10:11
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+7
15.2%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 7 yds to the TOL 32Similar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+49
20.7%
Cameron Carson 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18TD
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:2485% → 93%
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
15.2%
Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the MASS 47Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+7
15.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 7 yds to the MASS 40Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+18
15.4%
Dequan Finn run for 18 yds to the MASS 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
14.7%
Peny Boone run for 6 yds to the MASS 16Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+4
14.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 4 yds to the MASS 20Similar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+20
6.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 20 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19INT
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:179% → 10%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
9.3%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Mark Pope for 15 yds to the MASS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
10.0%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 3 yds to the MASS 43Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+15
10.1%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to George Johnson III for 15 yds to the TOL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
10.6%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for no gain to the TOL 42Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
10.0%
Taisun Phommachanh pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20FG
13 plays · 62 yds · 4:2392% → 96%
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
7.6%
Peny Boone run for 12 yds to the TOL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
7.5%
Peny Boone run for 6 yds to the TOL 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+6
7.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 6 yds to the TOL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
6.8%
Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the TOL 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+12
6.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 12 yds to the MASS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
6.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jaden DottinSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
6.7%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the MASS 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+15
6.8%
Dequan Finn run for 15 yds to the MASS 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
6.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for 6 yds to the MASS 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 18
0
6.3%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
6.3%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Larry StephensSimilar
Q4 11:08
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+36
4.2%
Luke Pawlak 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21MISSED FG
15 plays · 63 yds · 5:424% → 3%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
4.4%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Isaac Ross for 5 yds to the MASS 25Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
4.5%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 2 yds to the MASS 27Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+9
4.5%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 9 yds to the MASS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
4.6%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Gino Campiotti for 9 yds to the MASS 45Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
5.0%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
5.0%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd to the MASS 44Similar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+5
4.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Phommachanh,Taisun pass incomplete deep right to Harris Jr.,Shawn PENALTY Toledo Offside (Taylor,Terrance) 5 yards from UMass44 to UMass49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
4.8%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to Gino CampiottiSimilar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+19
4.8%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Shawn Harris Jr. for 19 yds to the TOL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
5.4%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
5.3%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 12 yds to the TOL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
5.5%
Christian Wells run for no gain to the TOL 20Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
5.4%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to Gino CampiottiSimilar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+3
5.1%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 3 yds to the TOL 17Similar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+34
2.7%
Cameron Carson 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22END OF GAME
8 plays · 33 yds · 5:1997% → 99%
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
3.0%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the TOL 20Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
3.1%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the TOL 18Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+14
3.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 14 yds to the TOL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
3.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for 12 yds to the TOL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
2.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for 8 yds to the MASS 48Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
2.6%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the MASS 48Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+1
1.1%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the MASS 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:53
Dequan Finn run for 56 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)
-11.1
TD · Q2 3:02
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to George Johnson III for 31 yds for a TD (Cameron Carson KICK)
+10.9
TD · Q3 10:11
Peny Boone run for 49 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)
-8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com