Try the model
HOU

Houston 13 at UCF 27

UCF
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-2.8UCF 93.6%Jack Martin 34 yd FG GOODAWAY 13 - HOME 27 · Q4 10:08
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:08 · Jack Martin 34 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Pregame prior+7.2Home team on offense+20.0Score differential+7.0Garbage-time factor+5.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:34: Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 16 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK) — HOU win probability +2.5 pts (now 16%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:13: RJ Harvey run for 11 yds to the HOU 45 for a 1ST down — UCF win probability +3.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:07: RJ Harvey run for 21 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +6.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:04: RJ Harvey run for 2 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +7.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 10:08: Jack Martin 34 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +2.8 pts (now 6%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5HOU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00HOU 4th & 3 at UCF 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    16.0%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:56HOU 4th & 7 at UCF 15, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:58UCF 4th & 4 at HOU 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    76.4%−0.3
    60% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−2.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:08UCF 4th & 4 at HOU 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    78.5%−0.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    78.5%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:08UCF 4th & 9 at HOU 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−3.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:08HOU 4th & 1 at UCF 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%−2.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:13HOU 4th & 4 at UCF 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    24.6%−0.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:56HOU 4th & 13 at HOU 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−1.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:37HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:30UCF 4th & 3 at HOU 40, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    94.4%−0.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    94.5%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00HOU 4th & 7 at UCF 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    5.0%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:08HOU 4th & 16 at UCF 16, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−3.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:58UCF 4th & 14 at HOU 33, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:40HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4HOU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:34HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:31UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:58UCF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:07UCF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:04UCF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:2614% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
86.3%
Stephon Johnson run for 13 yds to the HOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
86.3%
Parker Jenkins run for 3 yds to the HOU 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+15
86.3%
Donovan Smith run for 15 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
86.3%
Parker Jenkins run for 3 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+4
86.3%
Parker Jenkins run for 4 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 37
0
86.3%
Jenkins,Parker rush middle (Yates,Walter;Hunter,Lee).Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+21
86.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 21 yds to the UCF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
83.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 16 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2TD
14 plays · 94 yds · 5:0384% → 84%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
84.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+6
84.1%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 6 yds to the UCF 12Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 4
OWN 12
+23
84.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 23 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
84.2%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+9
84.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 9 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
84.3%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 8
50
+4
84.4%
Johnny Richardson run for 4 yds to the HOU 46Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+9
84.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 9 yds to the HOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
84.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 2 yds to the HOU 35Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+11
84.5%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 11 yds to the HOU 24 Mark-Antony Richards fumbled, recovered by UCF Alec Holler for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
84.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 3 yds to the HOU 21Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+13
84.5%
RJ Harvey run for 13 yds to the HOU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
83.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 8 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:3517% → 20%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
83.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 13 yds to the HOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-15
82.8%
for a 1ST down Houston Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
82.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 12 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
82.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matt Byrnes UCF Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 5
OPP 30
+12
82.3%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 12 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
82.3%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 23Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 15
OPP 23
+8
82.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 8 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
80.5%
pass incomplete to Stephon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:56
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
80.5%
Jack Martin 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5881% → 82%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
80.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 18 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
81.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 4 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-2
81.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 45 UCF Penalty, illegal shift (Yards) to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+21
80.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 21 yds to the HOU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
81.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Randy Pittman for 6 yds to the HOU 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 28
-2
81.1%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 2 yards to the HOU 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+2
80.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 2 yds to the HOU 28Similar
Q2 12:58
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+28
81.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 28 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5INT
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:5018% → 21%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
81.7%
Stacy Sneed run for 15 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
81.0%
Donovan Smith run for 8 yds to the HOU 48Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+17
80.6%
Stacy Sneed run for 17 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
79.5%
Donovan Smith pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6MISSED FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 5:0081% → 80%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
80.9%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+32
80.9%
RJ Harvey run for 32 yds to the HOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
82.1%
Xavier Townsend run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 46Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+3
81.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the HOU 43Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+4
81.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Mark-Antony Richards for 4 yds to the HOU 39Similar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+13
81.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 13 yds to the HOU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
82.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 27Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+2
82.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the HOU 25Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
81.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Jarrad BakerSimilar
Q2 6:08
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+42
80.0%
Colton Boomer 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7DOWNS
11 plays · 31 yds · 4:5521% → 24%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 4 yds to the HOU 29Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
79.2%
Donovan Smith run for 3 yds to the HOU 32Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+14
79.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 14 yds to the HOU 46 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, off-side (Tre'Mon Morris-Brash) to the HOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
78.1%
Parker Jenkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the HOU 44Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 12
OWN 44
0
78.9%
pass incomplete to Parker JenkinsSimilar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+11
79.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 11 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q2 6:08
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+2
78.8%
Donovan Smith run for 2 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
77.8%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+5
77.8%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
77.9%
Smith,Donovan rush middle (Henderson,Demari).Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 4
OPP 37
-7
76.5%
Donovan Smith sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8MISSED FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 1:0680% → 79%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
79.6%
RJ Harvey run for 11 yds to the HOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
80.2%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the HOU 42Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+22
80.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 22 yds to the HOU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
80.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 6 yds to the HOU 14Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+6
80.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 6 yds to the HOU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
80.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Kobe Hudson, broken up by Moses AlexanderSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
80.7%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 9Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
79.4%
Colton Boomer 26 yd FG MISSED , Juwon Gaston return for no gain to the HOU 35 , Malik Robinson return for no gain to the HOU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9TD
4 plays · 81 yds · 0:5378% → 87%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+57
77.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 57 yds to the HOU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
80.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 3 yds to the HOU 21Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+21
87.0%
RJ Harvey run for 21 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:1115% → 13%
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
85.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 12 yds to the HOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-9
84.5%
Donovan Smith sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the HOU 28Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 19
OWN 28
+6
85.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Parker Jenkins for 6 yds to the HOU 34Similar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 13
OWN 34
0
85.7%
pass incomplete to Stephon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:56
4TH & 13
OWN 34
+17
86.9%
Laine Wilkins punt for 35 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 17 yds to the UCF 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:5287% → 95%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
87.2%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+6
87.1%
RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the HOU 45Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+2
86.8%
Xavier Townsend run for 2 yds to the HOU 43Similar
Q3 11:56
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+5
86.1%
Houston Penalty, off-side (David Ugwoegbu) to the HOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
87.3%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the HOU 41Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+24
86.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 24 yds to the HOU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
87.5%
RJ Harvey run for 15 yds to the HOU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.7%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:277% → 7%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
92.8%
Donovan Smith run for 14 yds to the HOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
92.2%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 5 yds to the HOU 44Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
92.1%
pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IVSimilar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
92.4%
pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IVSimilar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
92.8%
Laine Wilkins punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 19 yds · 5:0795% → 95%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
94.7%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+2
94.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+4
94.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
94.9%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+9
94.9%
Johnny Richardson run for 9 yds to the HOU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
95.0%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the HOU 45Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
95.0%
Plumlee,John Rhys rush middle (Holmes Jr.,Anthony).Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+5
94.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 5 yds to the HOU 40Similar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 3
OPP 40
-10
95.3%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14FG
14 plays · 34 yds · 7:226% → 6%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
50
+14
94.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 14 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
94.5%
pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IVSimilar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
94.5%
Donovan Smith run for 6 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+2
94.2%
Donovan Smith run for 2 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 2
OPP 28
-5
94.3%
Houston Penalty, false start (Patrick Paul) to the UCF 33Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+30
95.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 30 yds to the UCF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
94.5%
Smith,Donovan rush (Johnson,Jason), PENALTY UH false start 5 yards to the UCF-2. Houston Penalty, false start (Sedrick Williams) to the UCF 8Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
94.5%
Donovan Smith run for 2 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
94.5%
Donovan Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 7 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, personal foul (Lee Hunter) to the UCF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
94.5%
Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the UCF 2Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
94.5%
Houston Penalty, false start (Tank Jenkins) to the UCF 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-11
94.5%
Donovan Smith sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the UCF 18Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
+2
96.3%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q4 10:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+34
93.6%
Jack Martin 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15PUNT
14 plays · 42 yds · 7:1096% → 97%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.6%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
95.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 4 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
95.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 13 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
96.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 3 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+5
96.0%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the HOU 49Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+3
95.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the HOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
96.0%
RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the HOU 40Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+11
96.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 11 yds to the HOU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
96.1%
Richards,Mark-Antony rush (George,Brian), PENALTY UCF holding (Marshall,Marcellus) 10 yards to the UH 19. Houston Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the HOU 39Similar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 20
OPP 39
+2
96.0%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 2 yds to the HOU 37Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 18
OPP 37
+4
95.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 4 yds to the HOU 33Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 14
OPP 33
0
97.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 14
OPP 33
0
97.3%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:184% → 4%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.1%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
96.1%
Ui Ale pass complete to Parker Jenkins for 4 yds to the HOU 24Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+1
96.2%
Ui Ale run for 1 yd to the HOU 25Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 5
OWN 25
-5
96.4%
Ui Ale sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the HOU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17END OF GAME
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
98.2%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the HOU 15Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+3
98.2%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the HOU 12Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 2
OPP 12
-3
98.2%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 3 yards to the HOU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:04
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
+7.2
TD · Q3 14:07
RJ Harvey run for 21 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
+6.7
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:13
RJ Harvey run for 11 yds to the HOU 45 for a 1ST down
+3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com